*** Official 2018 Royals Offseason Repository ***

[duncan_idaho]

It's the end of the world as we know it... and we feel... fine?

2018 is a season of transition for the Royals, or at least it is at this point. Dayton Moore is back. Will he swing full into THE PROCESS 2.0? Or will he try to load up again and make some reload magic happen?

Pending Free Agents:
1B | Eric Hosmer | San Diego Padres, 8 years, $144 million ($5 million signing bonus; $20 million/year in Yrs 1-5; $13 million/year in Yrs 6-8 wth player opt out)

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Texas Rangers, 6, $118 million)

3B | Mike Moustaskas | Kansas City Royas, 1, $6.5 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Los Angeles Angels, 5, $98 million)

CF | Lorenzo Cain | Milwaukee Brewers, 5 years, $80 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: San Francisco Giants, 4, $68 million)

RP | Mike Minor | Texas Rangers, 3, $28 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Los Angeles Angels, 3, $35 million+ $12 million team option

SP | Jason Vargas | New York Mets, 2, $16 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: Baltimore Orioles, 2, $29 million)

SS | Alcides Escobar | Kansas City Royals, 1, $2.5 million

Spoiler!

(DI's Guess: San Diego Padres, 1, $6.5 million)

2018 MLB Draft Picks
#18
#33 - Compensation (Eric Hosmer)
#34 - Compensation (Lorenzo Cain)
#40 (Competitive Balance Round A)

Comp picks explanation:

Spoiler!

In case I, picks would be #32, 33, and 34, if Alex Cobb of Rays signs for $50 million guaranteed.

Kansas City will likely have 5 of the top 40-45 picks in the draft, and the bonus pool money should rival that of the teams drafting 1-3 in the 2017 draft. This should give KC tremendous flexibility in acquiring talent that otherwise might slip or not be "signable."

2018 Draft Names to Watch

RHP Kumar Rocker, N Oconnee HS, Georgia.

Spoiler!

Possibly goes top 10 but is a big, physical SP with ace potential. Moore and co. will be all over him if he slips a bit and could offer top 10 money at No. 16

OF Jarred Kelenic, Waukasha West HS, WI

Spoiler!

Kelenic is the top prep bat, toolsy OF. Royals would be ecstatic to have shot at him.

1B Triston Casas, American Heritage HS (FL).

Spoiler!

Tremendous raw power, best in HS bats. Royals typically like HS arms or HS bats with "special" tools. He qualifies.

RHP Carter Stewart, Eau de Gallie HS (Ga).

Spoiler!

Another big, physical specimen with huge upside. More likely to be available mid-first than Rocker.

ANY Any, Any (Any). Any current top projected pick who slides for injury concerns. Includes current top prospect prospect SP Brady Singer, U of Florida.

[SPchief]

Originally Posted by dallaschiefsfan

THIS...unless things have been practically inked. But that would make no sense, since Boras / Nightengale do this media leak to get someone else to pony up for a bigger contract. Teams mentioned are usually being used. It will be interesting to see if DM comes out and denies the report. If it's a legit offer by the Royals, I would imagine he's not very happy and this could sour their semi-good relationship with Boras. They are anal about keeping their negotiations tight.

EDIT: There is the possibility that the contract offer / years part of the report is true...but the total is either made up, not guaranteed (regardless of what the report says) heavily back-loaded or with variations of opt-outs and / or team options.

Originally Posted by dallaschiefsfan

Flanny is saying that DM is not commenting. Which means some of this is likely true.

GMDM would be a fool to deny the report. Would IMO signal he isn't wanting to sign him.

[dallaschiefsfan]

Originally Posted by SPchief

GMDM would be a fool to deny the report. Would IMO signal he isn't wanting to sign him.

In the past, he's had zero problem denying rumors when the Royals are being used and/or there is no truth to them, regardless of whether he wanted to re-sign a guy or not. No comment is the closest thing DM gets to affirming that there is some truth to a report. We'll see.

[siberian khatru]

Originally Posted by wazu

And if ratings go in the tank because the once-in-30-years playoff window has closed, that doesn’t make a big impact on the forecasted value? Please.

You seem to know more about it than me or Mellinger or anyone else, so you explain it to me. You've basically waved your hand at every piece of evidence I've put in front of you. So explain it. Explain how they bake in the expected team performance for 10-plus years. How signing Eric Hosmer to a 7-year deal will increase the value of the contract. Despite other teams signing lucrative deals while jettisoning players amidst losing seasons. Explain it, Wazu. Lay it out, in detail. Educate me. Inform me. Elevate me to your level.

[mikeyis4dcats.]

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

You seem to know more about it than me or Mellinger or anyone else, so you explain it to me. You've basically waved your hand at every piece of evidence I've put in front of you. So explain it. Explain how they bake in the expected team performance for 10-plus years. How signing Eric Hosmer to a 7-year deal will increase the value of the contract. Despite other teams signing lucrative deals while jettisoning players amidst losing seasons. Explain it, Wazu. Lay it out, in detail. Educate me. Inform me. Elevate me to your level.

FWIW (nothing) I agree with him and have been saying it since last year. The Royals have to keep fan interest so butts are watching the tv to get a better tv deal. It's foolish to say that viewership doesn't affect a tv deal. TV deals are all about ad revenue, and that's based on people tuning it.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

You seem to know more about it than me or Mellinger or anyone else, so you explain it to me. You've basically waved your hand at every piece of evidence I've put in front of you. So explain it. Explain how they bake in the expected team performance for 10-plus years. How signing Eric Hosmer to a 7-year deal will increase the value of the contract. Despite other teams signing lucrative deals while jettisoning players amidst losing seasons. Explain it, Wazu. Lay it out, in detail. Educate me. Inform me. Elevate me to your level.

All I’m doing is asking “why?” Something I think Mellinger should do rather than just saying he he has “talked to people”. When you receive information that flies in the face of logic, follow up. I get that you want to just accept it, no explanation required. I don’t.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by dallaschiefsfan

In the past, he's had zero problem denying rumors when the Royals are being used and/or there is no truth to them, regardless of whether he wanted to re-sign a guy or not. No comment is the closest thing DM gets to affirming that there is some truth to a report. We'll see.

This.

It's possible this is a ploy by one side or the other (Royals saving face with fans and appearing to try, Hosmer's camp trying to jump start his market).

But Moore choosing to not comment makes it seem more likely to be accurate.

[tk13]

I'm not sure it's a good contract, but I'm honestly not surprised if it's true. I've just had a gut feeling all along that Dayton loves Hosmer and will take a big swing at him.

I think if they can back load the contract they can afford it, for sure. We have a lot of terrible contracts on the books this year, but moving forward it's really just Kennedy and Gordon. Now whether it's a good idea to sign him for 7 years, that's another story.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

This.

It's possible this is a ploy by one side or the other (Royals saving face with fans and appearing to try, Hosmer's camp trying to jump start his market).

But Moore choosing to not comment makes it seem more likely to be accurate.

I can't post the tweet from my phone, but Padres beat writer Dennis Lin just tweeted confirming that the Padres have offered him 7 years. Didn't confirm the Royals offer though.

I figured the Royals would wait and see what the biggest offer was and try to top it, so I'd bet there's some accuracy to this.

[siberian khatru]

Originally Posted by mikeyis4dcats.

FWIW (nothing) I agree with him and have been saying it since last year. The Royals have to keep fan interest so butts are watching the tv to get a better tv deal. It's foolish to say that viewership doesn't affect a tv deal. TV deals are all about ad revenue, and that's based on people tuning it.

Originally Posted by wazu

All I’m doing is asking “why?” Something I think Mellinger should do rather than just saying he he has “talked to people”. When you receive information that flies in the face of logic, follow up. I get that you want to just accept it, no explanation required. I don’t.

And I get that you guys want it to be a certain way. I've provided evidence that it doesn't work that way. And what I get in return is wishcasting. And Wazu, I just explained that there are other factors that weigh more heavily than projected performance. I don't think it flies in the face of logic at all, especially given the examples of other teams. And all I get back is denial, and demand for more "proof" -- i.e., something that confirms your world view. How about YOU do some legwork and support YOUR contention?

I'm out.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by tk13

I'm not sure it's a good contract, but I'm honestly not surprised if it's true. I've just had a gut feeling all along that Dayton loves Hosmer and will take a big swing at him.



I think if they can back load the contract they can afford it, for sure. We have a lot of terrible contracts on the books this year, but moving forward it's really just Kennedy and Gordon. Now whether it's a good idea to sign him for 7 years, that's another story.

I'm not sure they even need to back load it that heavily. Their commitments get pretty small past this year. $71 millions for 2019 and just $54 million for 2020 (for 5 players and 4 players, respectively).

[wazu]

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

And I get that you guys want it to be a certain way. I've provided evidence that it doesn't work that way. And what I get in return is wishcasting. And Wazu, I just explained that there are other factors that weigh more heavily than projected performance. I don't think it flies in the face of logic at all, especially given the examples of other teams. And all I get back is denial, and demand for more "proof" -- i.e., something that confirms your world view. How about YOU do some legwork and support YOUR contention?

I'm out.

I understand there are other factors. But to dismiss the idea that ratings heavily impact the value of a TV program is borderline absurd. For Mellinger to inform us that both sides say it doesn’t matter, but not explain why? Sorry but I need more to go on.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by wazu

And if ratings go in the tank because the once-in-30-years playoff window has closed, that doesn’t make a big impact on the forecasted value? Please.

This. Both sides must have some reason to say the quality of the team doesn't matter. But it absolutely does.

What are the ratings of a team still in playoff hunt in Sept. vs. a 100-loss team of Ross Gloads? That doesn't mater to a TV contract's value?

[dallaschiefsfan]

Regardless of what increase the TV contract gives you, it's likely that any difference between current and post-2019 contract will effectively be invested in Hosmer's contract if any of these reports end up being true. So outside of this year, I don't think we have to worry too much about how a Hosmer contract affects the Royals from 2019 onward.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Um...put up numbers that have been rivaled by maybe 3-5 people in the history of the sport through his age 24 season?

Trying to downplay what Harper's done at the ages he's done it at is silly. Bryce Harper is going to sail into the HoF and go down as one of the 10-15 best hitters in baseball history.

Eric Hosmer...uh...won't.

Rubbish^

Take away his 2015 season and re-check the numbers. He's been very good but not even close to HoF. His career OPS+ is 140, but without 2015 it's 126. That's really good but HoF? Not even close bro.


Here's his top BBRef comp: JD Martinez. Here's his top "thru age 24" sim score: Andruw Jones. (Of his top 10 only 3 made the Hall: Robinson Aaron Griffey. Ruben Sierra and Justin Upton made it)


His last two years he's (1) farted out a piddly 814 OPS in 628 PA, and then he (2) follows up by only playing 111 games.



Harper's 2015 is a sever outlier. I said he was the new Mantle, and better than Trout long term. And I was flat wrong.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Rubbish^

Take away his 2015 season and re-check the numbers. He's been very good but not even close to HoF. His career OPS+ is 140, but without 2015 it's 126. That's really good but HoF? Not even close bro.

Here's his top BBRef comp: JD Martinez. Here's his top "thru age 24" sim score: Andruw Jones. (Of his top 10 only 3 made the Hall: Robinson Aaron Griffey. Ruben Sierra and Justin Upton made it)

His last two years he's (1) farted out a piddly 814 OPS in 628 PA, and then he (2) follows up by only playing 111 games.

Harper's 2015 is a sever outlier. I said he was the new Mantle, and better than Trout long term. And I was flat wrong.

Oh, I mean if you remove a guy's best season through his early 20's and he's only 26% better than a league average hitter, he's clearly not worth the trouble.

I'm sure as he enters the first year of his prime, he's not going to improve any.

I mean shit man, how disengenuous can you be. "Only 3 of the top 10 made the hall..."

His top 10 - Andruw Jones, who will get close to the Hall but probably not make it due to his bizarre Dale Murphy sort of collapse. Frank Robinson - uh, he's not bad. Upton - a very good player who never approached peak Harper even as he damn near won an MVP at 23. Giancarlo Stanton - if he stays healthy he's hitting 600+ bombs and he'll go in; he's demonstrating clear HoF skills. Sierra - that one admittedly surprises me. Juan Gonzalez - his steroid fueled numbers are what puts him at the level of Harper in his early 20s and if he'd have stayed on the juice he'd have gone in; dude was a monster. do you just not remember the perennial triple crown threat he was on roids? Hank Aaron, Miguel Cabrera, Ken Griffey Jr and Mike Trout. Um...yeah, that's not bad company.

So 4 of them are still active, 3 of them on clear HoF tracks and the 4th is damn good in his own right. One of them was a steroid fueled freak, another suffered one of the more obvious late-career collapses in MLB history. The others are among the best players in baseball history.

You got Ruben Sierra though, I'll give you that.

Harper is a damn monster. He's had 2 seasons with an OPS over 1.000 by 24 years old and his 2016 season was on track to be as good as his '15 (and '17) seasons but/for his shoulder injury. Look at his splits before he got hurt that year. But yeah, he stepped on a wet bag wrong and his damn knee almost exploded in '17 so clearly he's just some flash in the pan.

Seriously, this is almost as stupid as your Arenado idiocy (very little is as stupid as your Arenado idiocy). You just don't know ****-all about National League baseball, do you?