Cam Newton gets 5 year $103M deal

[Chief Roundup]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...n=facebook_atn

$67.6 M in the first 3 years is the most ever.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

With Newton's new deal, the Panthers only have $120 million committed for 2016. If cap does reach $160 million, they'll have plenty of money to sign Kuechly and anyone else they want to keep to an extension.

People keep saying the same thing about the Chiefs and ultimately I just don't think it's a figure that's even worth looking at until the end of the season. There are going to be other teams with carryover that brings their number even higher. There are going to be cap cut penalties. And even that 'committed' figure probably only gives them 2/3 of a roster to begin with.

It's the nature of the open market - if every team has a shitload of money left unspent in 2016 (and about 80% of them do), agents will know it and again, league rules regarding cap spending will mandate that teams spend up to it. That space will get eaten up quickly in a free-market environment where everyone has money to burn.

The most critical analysis is still cap%. Newton will take up a lot of it.

[BossChief]

Who said the cap is going all the way to 160 next year?

I don't see it going quite that high. Probably closer to 155.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The most critical analysis is still cap%. Newton will take up a lot of it.

Kuechly's cap number is about $4.5 million this year but he's on the books for $11 million next year, which is included in the $120 million dollars allocated to 2016.

I think that Kuechly's a great player but I find it hard to believe that an inside linebacker, even a player of his ability, will receive a contract that annually exceeds $11 million per year. Even if he does, it'll barely register with a number of $160 million.

IMO, this was a brilliant move by the Panthers. If Newton continues to play at his current level, $20 million per year for the next three years will be peanuts as the cap rises. If he improves, it'll be a bargain.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Who said the cap is going all the way to 160 next year?

I don't see it going quite that high. Probably closer to 155.

Florio.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Kuechly's cap number is about $4.5 million this year but he's on the books for $11 million next year, which is included in the $120 million dollars allocated to 2016.

I think that Kuechly's a great player but I find it hard to believe that an inside linebacker, even a player of his ability, will receive a contract that annually exceeds $11 million per year. Even if he does, it'll barely register with a number of $160 million.

IMO, this was a brilliant move by the Panthers. If Newton continues to play at his current level, $20 million per year for the next three years will be peanuts as the cap rises. If he improves, it'll be a bargain.

I'd give Kuechely 11m per without blinking an eye.

In today's. NFL, he is worth more than his weight in gold.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BossChief

I'd give Kuechely 11m per without blinking an eye.

In today's. NFL, he is worth more than his weight in gold.

Yeah, as a premier coverage backer with plus tackling skills, he's going to make huge money; probably in the $13 million range, IMO.

Again, I see the point that Dane's making and ultimately believe the Panthers made a good decision, but when EVERYONE has more money to spend in a league with a spending floor, than nobody truly has more money.

I ultimately think it's a very risky decision to spend more than 10% of your cap on an individual player and it won't be for another 4 years, if that, that Newton's deal yields a less than 10% cap allocation for the Panthers. As a guy that is, in my opinion, a pretty mediocre QB - that's a decision that they had to make, but only because it was the best of a couple of less than stellar options.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by BossChief

I'd give Kuechely 11m per without blinking an eye.

In today's. NFL, he is worth more than his weight in gold.

$11 million per would make him the highest paid middle linebacker in the league by more than $1.5 million. I'm not saying he won't get it but that's a lot of dough for a non-passing rushing linebacker.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Again, I see the point that Dane's making and ultimately believe the Panthers made a good decision, but when EVERYONE has more money to spend in a league with a spending floor, than nobody truly has more money.

This is a good point but I still believe that $20 million per for the next three years represents very good value for the Panthers organization. I don't think that Newton is anywhere near his ceiling (and to be honest, he may never reach that point) but if the Panthers can surround him with the kind of talent that Dalton has in Cincy, I think he'd have quiet a bit of success.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I ultimately think it's a very risky decision to spend more than 10% of your cap on an individual player and it won't be for another 4 years, if that, that Newton's deal yields a less than 10% cap allocation for the Panthers. As a guy that is, in my opinion, a pretty mediocre QB - that's a decision that they had to make, but only because it was the best of a couple of less than stellar options.

We're seeing this more and more because the position is blatantly devoid of talent. We're no longer living in an age where franchise quarterbacks are available each and every year, let alone multiple guys that can consistently play at a high level for a decade or more.

Teams with adequate to above average QB's are wise to lock up their players now and attempt to build around them, instead of relying on them to put the team on their back and win.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

$11 million per would make him the highest paid middle linebacker in the league by more than $1.5 million. I'm not saying he won't get it but that's a lot of dough for a non-passing rushing linebacker.

That's exactly my point - with a $160 million cap, those existing 'highest paid player' numbers are completely irrelevant. Kuechly will blow past that.

Is it high? Yeah, probably - but the money HAS to get spent and if you can get a legitimately unique, elite player that allows you to scheme your defense differently than all but a few teams in the league, that's a good place to spend that money.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by tk13

And just for reference, since they both happened in 2003... the Panthers' defense did allow less points in their 3 playoff wins to get to the Super Bowl than the Chiefs did in their one game against the Colts.

Hilarious analysis on this board, man. Didn't you know ... no matter how many points are scored or aren't scored ... QB's simply win games. No matter what. Unless the QB is Russell Wilson or Peyton Manning. Then it is defense.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

That's exactly my point - with a $160 million cap, those existing 'highest paid player' numbers are completely irrelevant. Kuechly will blow past that.

Is it high? Yeah, probably - but the money HAS to get spent and if you can get a legitimately unique, elite player that allows you to scheme your defense differently than all but a few teams in the league, that's a good place to spend that money.

Which is likely the reason that Houston is holding out for $20 million or more.

If a guy like Luke Kuechly and his six career sacks can get $14-15 million per, what's Houston's value?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

We're seeing this more and more because the position is blatantly devoid of talent. We're no longer living in an age where franchise quarterbacks are available each and every year, let alone multiple guys that can consistently play at a high level for a decade or more.

Teams with adequate to above average QB's are wise to lock up their players now and attempt to build around them, instead of relying on them to put the team on their back and win.

I don't know that the position is any more devoid of talent than it's ever been, but the value of base competency has increased tenfold.

Let's face it - a 1/3 of the league has ALWAYS had shitty quarterbacks and I don't think that's changed. But in ye olden times, a shitty quarterback could be hidden more and suddenly that squad could at least be playoff caliber.

Now, with the league rules relating to passing, you simply can't hide truly wretched QB play. But here's where I think the league will eventually zag - I don't think it's as impossible to find tolerable QB play as many lousy organizations have made it look. I think the rules have made it so easy to pass now that you can get to a level of base competence if you have a good scheme and good evaluators. Sooner or later, the NFL's 'market inefficiency' will be the ability to keep the line moving on solid QBs.

It's what the Eagles are trying to do. It's what the Texans have tried to do. It's what a few other teams will try to do as well, IMO. They'll focus their cap resources on building the best 52 person squad as they can and they'll continue to try to keep a stable of young QBs on hand that they can insert to try to get passable results.

Because when the alternative is hamstringing your franchise to keep Jay Cutler, it's just not tenable. And as that starts to happen, I think you'll see the QB middle class start to go back to relatively sane figures.

There are just so many risk-averse franchises right now that are going whole hog on mediocre options to keep from back-sliding. Ultimately as teams start losing superstars like Houston, Suh, etc... to hold onto solid but unspectacular passers, we'll see a sea change in how the position is handled.

There will be 3-5 'elite' guys who cost whatever they cost and will be worth it. The rest of the league will be seeking average QB play at rookie contract levels. It's the only true massive competitive advantage that a team can find apart from simply having a HOF caliber passer.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Which is likely the reason that Houston is holding out for $20 million or more.

If a guy like Luke Kuechly and his six career sacks can get $14-15 million per, what's Houston's value?

High. Extremely high. That's why I don't think the Chiefs will actually clear any cap space with an extension for him - the AAV is going to have to be so staggeringly large that the up front numbers can't be that reduced from his franchise tag unless the Chiefs intend to just blow up the cap in 2 years.

And that's why I just don't give a rip about the "the Chiefs have $60 million in cap space in 2 seasons" noise - EVERYONE DOES. The Chiefs are still in the bottom 1/3 of available cap space next year and that's with no rollover money. They'll absolutely be up against the cap next year as well.

It's just basic market pressures at work. Houston's going to cost a ton and ultimately if the Chiefs want to retain guys like that long-term, they'll need to adopt a new QB model.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

If it pushes the Chiefs to draft and develop, pay Newton a billion.

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Some of you guys act there is a better alternative to guy like Cam Newton and Alex Smith. Hint: There isn't.

There are a dozen teams in the NFL with shit as starting QB's. Complete and utter shit. Some of the other teams have unproven guys like Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater. Sure, they show promise but how many QB's haven't taken a step backwards their sophomore seasons?

The bottom line is this: With a great supporting cast, guys like Smith and Newton and Dalton and Wilson and Flacco can win in the playoffs and can win a Super Bowl. But don't expect any of them to do it themselves like a John Elway, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre or even Ben Rothlisberger, because it's not going to happen.

Elway never won a SB without TD and company that they circumvented the salary cap to win either way.