*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

I guess I must have misunderstood you. I knew Escobar was your leadoff hitter. I thought you were talking about whether Infante should be leadoff or whether he was worth as much as Escobar.

FWIW, this is why you hit Infante 9th:

1st - 762
2nd - 743
3rd - 725
4th - 709
5th - 693
6th - 675
7th - 657
8th - 638
9th - 618

That's the average # of PA per batting order per season. Basically, every time you move someone down you see them about 18 fewer times a year. Imagine the improvement in your offense with Gordon having 90 more ABs and Escobar 90 fewer.

[C3HIEF3S]

#Royals say reports of anyone failing medicals during trade talks were completely inaccurate -- never happened. https://t.co/FT2mku9CfB

— Jeffrey Flanagan (@FlannyMLB) July 27, 2015

[KChiefs1]

http://www.royalsreview.com/2015/7/2...-trade-for-him

This is sort of a counterpoint to the excellent Jeff Passan’s article of today "10 Degrees: A trade deadline primer…"

I didn’t want the Cueto trade to happen. If I somehow had the power to reverse the trade now, I would not – I’ve come around to it mostly because of what the Royals DIDN’T give up…and because Cueto is awesome – but I was against it.

I was against in part because of my memory of deadline trades – especially for starters – not seeming to work especially well over the years. Jeff Sullivan sort of confirmed that suspicion, with an admittedly crude study. But I was against it for more philosophical reasons having to do with Windows and Succession Planning:

Given that I’m cranking this out over my lunch hour and that I’ve been writing powerpoint presentations all morning, here’s a table of contents for this post:

1. 1. The Playoffs are a lottery (just ask Billy Beane)

2. 2. The importance of a succession plan (get a lottery ticket every year)

3. 3. We shouldn’t let "Window paranoia" allow us to abandon the succession plan and blow up the pipeline

That’s pretty much the whole post right there, isn’t it? Isn’t powerpoint great? I guess I can go back to work now.

A few additional comments (speaker notes, if you will):

1. 1. The Playoffs are a lottery

I don’t know that this requires a whole lot of additional contemplation – you either agree or disagree. Last year the Royals went to the last game of the WS with a rotation that included Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Vargas. They swept the Angels (one of the best teams in baseball) and the Orioles and battled to game seven with a rotation that included Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Vargas! (Jeremy, Jason, love you guys). More than that, their #1 starter (Shields) was not particularly effective. I strongly believe that the regular season more accurately reflects the quality of a team while the playoffs are mostly a lottery. Many GM’s agree, most notably Billy Beane.

2. 2. The Importance of a Succession Plan

If you agree that the playoffs are basically a lottery, then your #1 objective should be to get a lottery ticket every year. This is one difference between baseball and football I think: In football you can structure a team that is built to reach the playoffs but not succeed once you get there. This would be my childhood Chiefs. In baseball you can start clicking on all cylinders and win games against very good teams started by Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie. The key to success in baseball is to lay the foundation of a team by building from within, and then decorate your solid foundation with rentals and free agents. Isn’t this the widely accepted blueprint? You can make an argument that prospects are overvalued, that the rate failure in the major leagues is extraordinarily high. I understand and accept that…but isn’t that an argument to hoard more of them?

This segues to the idea of Windows.

3. 3. Don’t let Window paranoia cause you to abandon your succession plan

Regarding Ben Zobrist, Jeff Passan says: "if it takes a Sean Manaea or Miguel Almonte to get him, the Royals are pot committed enough that they ought to push themselves all-in and try to ready themselves as best they can to do this year what they couldn’t last."

Um, Jeff, the Royals came within one game of winning it all last year!

Let’s consider for a moment – at an extremely high level – what the Royals’ succession plan currently is. Let’s say they lock up Duffy, let’s assume for argument that Duffy is here long term. Let’s assume also that Ventura’s arm will be fine over the long term and that we can count on him for some period of time beyond 2017, however unlikely that may be. What is the Royal’s long term plan for the rotation? It looks to me like Manaea, Zimmer & Almonte are a significant part of it.

"But the Royals will lose Gordon next year and Hosmer, Moose, Cain, etc., after 2017" you say. So in other words, you are saying that Royals will instantly revert back to the team you knew before, that this is their little bubble of good fortune before they become terrible again. Might as well go ahead and cash all of their chips in now to incrementally increase their playoff odds!

Stop the self loathing. The Royals are going to be good beyond 2017. You don’t know they won’t retain some combination of those players heading toward free agency for one thing, and you don’t know what they might bring back in trade if they won’t re-sign, and you don’t know what other players from the farm system might capably replace them. Let’s take a look at what the 2012 Cardinals’ roster looked like (the equivalent of us, in 2018, looking back at our roster of today).

C: Yady Molina: still here!

1B: Allen Craig: gone. Not even good anymore.

2B: Daniel Descalso: ?

SS: Rafael Furcal: wasn’t he a Royal this year? (Arizona Royal)

3B: David Freese: gone

LF: Matt Holliday: still here!

CF: Jon Jay: still here! (although isn’t he a part timer now? Am I wrong about that?)

RF: Carlos Beltran: gone

Rotation: Kyle Lohse, Wainwright, Lance Lynn, Jake Westbrook, Jaime Garcia, Chris Carpenter, Shelby Miller…: Wainwright’s still around, but not playing.

My point: the Cardinals had/have a great succession plan. They could have bemoaned what might happen to the team in 2015, but look at them now. Trust the process people, the Royals will find a way to staff the team.

But not if they trade for Ben Zobrist.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Last postseason erased that doubt from Mike Moustakas ... and suddenly he's a .300 hitter with an .800 OPS and already has more hits this year than all of last year.

You don't think it has anything to do with him Completely overhauling his swing\approach in the offseason?

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

Eric Hosmer on acquiring Johnny Cueto: "It's a good time to be a Kansas City Royal."

— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughStar) July 27, 2015

I'll be impressed when he says that in 2018. Otherwise, water be wet

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Their expectations are completely different. A #3 starter is expected to be a better than league average pitcher. They will go deeper into games, too. They'll face more batters and thus have a bigger outcome on the team's success per start. A #5 starter is going to be, on average, one of the 30 worst starters in the league. They will give up more runs and work shorter outings. They put the team in worse positions and tax the bullpen harder on average.

Morever, many teams use off days as a way to skip the #5 if possible. Fives are also almost completely worthless in the postseason, as they are used either as long relief, mop up duty, or extra innings games only.

The difference between a #3 and a #5 in a H2H matchup may only be 5%, but when you multiply that by 34 starts it can make the difference between making the postseason or not.

Let's try this. The Royals picked up Cueto. Which happened:


1) Cueto replaces Ventura as the 1, setting off a chain reaction where everyone moves down a slot

2) Cueto simply replaces Young

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I guess I must have misunderstood you. I knew Escobar was your leadoff hitter. I thought you were talking about whether Infante should be leadoff or whether he was worth as much as Escobar.

FWIW, this is why you hit Infante 9th:

1st - 762
2nd - 743
3rd - 725
4th - 709
5th - 693
6th - 675
7th - 657
8th - 638
9th - 618

That's the average # of PA per batting order per season. Basically, every time you move someone down you see them about 18 fewer times a year. Imagine the improvement in your offense with Gordon having 90 more ABs and Escobar 90 fewer.

This stuff here, is gold. Simple too.

[Bufkin]

I just don't agree with giving up more valuable prospects for a career 264 hitter who's averaging less than 10 home runs a season the past few seasons.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by Molitoth

Shouldn't the 5th spot just go to whomever is the "hottest" at the time?

Let me check the hot meter.

[BWillie]

So apparently Shane Victorino still plays baseball. Had no clue. He just got traded to the Angels. He's only played 63 games the last two years.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by srvy

How bout Cueto and Quez?

I don't get why you would go by your buddy's name.


Hi, I'm Jake, and this is my buddy Donny. Except, everyone that knows me calls me Donny?

...okay?

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Anyong Bluth

I don't get why you would go by your buddy's name.


Hi, I'm Jake, and this is my buddy Donny. Except, everyone that knows me calls me Donny?

...okay?

It probably means something, despite being synonymous to Johnny's last name.

I don't know, I don't speak French.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

8 years ago, I was probably one of the 10 best slow pitch softball players in my area. Fast forward to today ... I am still a hell of a fielder but I'm not 9 weeks in and I still haven't ****ing hit anything other than a god damn pop up or rolled over a pitch to 1st base. It's ****ing terrible. I'm a head case. If you don't think some of these hitters like Hosmer who are prone to huge slumps aren't giant head cases, then you're insane. This is why I predicted guys like Hosmer and Moose would be exponentially better this year. They are extremely talented guys ... but Moose every single year had such a terrible April he pressed constantly to get out of it. When you look at your stat line every day and you're a .180 hitter 35 games in and you're a young guy who's career is suddenly in jeopardy, you press.

Last postseason erased that doubt from Mike Moustakas ... and suddenly he's a .300 hitter with an .800 OPS and already has more hits this year than all of last year.

Talent gets you so far ... but you also need confidence. Swagger is a real thing.

The Show 2016: rec league softball

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I guess I must have misunderstood you. I knew Escobar was your leadoff hitter. I thought you were talking about whether Infante should be leadoff or whether he was worth as much as Escobar.

FWIW, this is why you hit Infante 9th:

1st - 762
2nd - 743
3rd - 725
4th - 709
5th - 693
6th - 675
7th - 657
8th - 638
9th - 618

That's the average # of PA per batting order per season. Basically, every time you move someone down you see them about 18 fewer times a year. Imagine the improvement in your offense with Gordon having 90 more ABs and Escobar 90 fewer.

I've been in favor of switching Gordon and Escobar, and now that you've laid it out like that, it seems that the difference would be about 7 additional times on base, likely BBs. Maybe a couple singles from Esky are now Gordon HRs, which would result in a few more runs.

What do you figure the impact as?

[chiefqueen]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

Oh, we're ****ed.

Just FYI: The Indians, after getting swept by the White Sox at home, held the dreaded Players Only meeting after the game. #Royals
— Jeffrey Flanagan (@FlannyMLB) July 27, 2015

Does this mean we're playing the 2015 AL Champs tonight?