Football Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex S - Page 2

vailpass · 08-20-2018, 12:11 PM

Which one of you banged this guy's wife then wiped your dick on the curtains? Or was it Mahomes that he caught sneaking out the window?

Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex Smith Under Center

Here at SI Gambling, we are going to unveil our NFL betting experts’ win total previews for all 32 NFL teams. Make sure to check out all of them, as well as the rest of our gambling content, at si.com/gambling.

Chiefs 2018 win total: 8 (-160 over, +140 under)

Chiefs 2017 record: 10-6

Key offseason acquisitions: WR Sammy Watkins, CB David Amerson, CB Kendall Fuller, LB Anthony Hitchens, NT Xavier Williams, CB Orlando Scandrick, RB Damien Williams, QB Chad Henne

Key offseason losses: QB Alex Smith, CB Marcus Peters, LB Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson, CB Terrance Mitchell, CB Phillip Gaines, DT Bennie Logan, WR Albert Wilson, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, OL Zach Fulton, LB Ramik Wilson, OC Matt Nagy

Five things to keep in mind before betting the Chiefs' win total

1. Patrick Mahomes certainly raises the Chiefs’ offensive ceiling, however he also can greatly lower the unit’s floor. Mahomes’s electric arm talent can make it easy to forget how important Alex Smith was to this team. Per Warren Sharp in his 2018 Football Preview (a read I highly recommend for all football fans), Smith’s 1.35% interception rate only trails Tom Brady’s 1.3%. Kansas City’s +31 turnover differential over the past two seasons led the NFL, with Baltimore’s +22 and Philadelphia’s +17 ranking second and third respectively. That is a rather wide margin. Turnovers obviously play a huge role in a team’s success, but ending a contest without giving the ball away was especially imperative for the Chiefs.

During Smith’s entire time in K.C., the team won 77.6% of its games (38-11 record) in the regular season when he didn’t throw an interception. That number dropped to 44.4% (12-15 record) when he was picked off at least once. Mahomes will deliver more deep strikes through the air, but he will also be responsible for more negative plays, and that could end up being a major setback for this unit.

2. Another key for the Chiefs with Smith at the helm was setting the defense up for the best possible chance for success—although the defense didn’t take advantage last season (we’ll address that later). Per Football Outsiders, the average Chiefs opponent starting field position in 2017 was the 25.49-yard line, the third-best mark in that metric. That was largely due to three factors: Kansas City didn’t turn the ball over (a league-low 11 turnovers), the Chiefs averaged 34.7 yards per drive (sixth-best) and the team’s kickers did not miss many field goals to help out the opposition’s field position (41-45 on FGs, and only one miss from 50+ yards). Kansas City’s drives also lasted an average of 2:52, the eighth-longest time in the NFL.

With Mahomes as the signal-caller, there will be more explosive plays, meaning a likelier chance of drives taking up less clock. His higher turnover rate will also flip the field in the opponents’ favor more often than the Chiefs have been accustomed to in recent seasons. Having this version of Kansas City’s defense on with a shorter field to defend and on for a longer period of time is a recipe for disaster.

3. On the defensive side of the ball last year, the Chiefs weren’t just bad. They were flat-out abysmal. The unit ranked 30th in defensive efficiency. Losing safety Eric Berry to a ruptured Achilles in the first game of the season was a killer, yet Kansas City allowed a league-high 192.1 yards per game to wide receivers—including a whopping 90.3 YPG to opposing No. 1 wideouts (the next-worst mark was the Jets at 82.8 YPG)—and that falls on the cornerbacks. Acquiring Kendall Fuller from the Redskins in the Smith trade will be a significant boost in the slot. However the team’s coverage on the outside will be a glaring question mark, especially after dealing ball-hawking corner Marcus Peters to the Rams.

This unit will be relying on a 29-year-old safety in Berry with two major injuries already in his past and a 29-year-old pass rusher in Justin Houston who has missed 16 games in the past three seasons. The Chiefs will need those two to be a beacon of health this campaign for any hope of even a league-average defense.

4. The Chiefs have big-time weapons on offense, headlined by Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and offseason acquisition Sammy Watkins. But don’t underestimate the impact of Matt Nagy leaving to be the Bears head coach and replacing him with a first-time NFL offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy. Kansas City was fortunate that going from Doug Pederson to Nagy as OC in 2016 was a seamless transition, but will there be a smooth change this time?

Bieniemy was Kansas City’s running backs coach from 2013-17, but his only experience as offensive coordinator was for the University of Colorado, his alma mater, in 2011 and 2012. Colorado’s offense finished 92nd in yards per game and 109th in scoring in 2011, and fell to 119th in YPG and 120th in scoring the following year.

5. It doesn’t get much tougher than Kansas City’s opening stretch: at Chargers, at Steelers, vs. 49ers, at Broncos, vs. Jaguars, at Patriots. Its final six games isn’t a cakewalk either: at Rams, bye, at Raiders, vs. Ravens, vs. Chargers, at Seahawks, vs. Raiders. Going from playing the AFC East and a weaker-than-usual NFC East last season to the AFC North and NFC West, playing a first-place AFC schedule and residing in the AFC West doesn’t give the Chiefs many opportunities for easy wins.

PICK: UNDER 8 Wins

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/08/18/ch...ver-under-odds

Bewbies · 08-20-2018, 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beef Supreme

Even if we take a step back this year, which is entirely possible, I won't be missing Alex Smith under center.

Hell no.

We could go 0-16 and I wouldn't miss Smith.

milkman · 08-20-2018, 01:08 PM

This team could be 0-16 this season, and Mahomes could be the biggest bust since Ryan Leaf, and I will still not miss Alex Smith.

Marcellus · 08-20-2018, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

Yeah, they felt they hit the ceiling with Smith. They're probably gonna have a down year. If it's something like 8-8, i'd actually prefer to lose a few more. Get a better pick I guess.

I dont for 1 minute think Reid and company believes this team takes a step back this season or they wouldnt have traded Smith.

Dante84 · 08-20-2018, 01:19 PM

I looked him up; the guy who wrote this article is like 20 years old and he looks like he's 12.

O.city · 08-20-2018, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I dont for 1 minute think Reid and company believes this team takes a step back this season or they wouldnt have traded Smith.

They had to trade Smith. They weren't gonna waste 2 years of Mahomes on the bench, not get anything back for Smith after he walks.

Plus they had to have the $ from Smiths deal coming off the books.

Marcellus · 08-20-2018, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

They had to trade Smith. They weren't gonna waste 2 years of Mahomes on the bench, not get anything back for Smith after he walks.

Plus they had to have the $ from Smiths deal coming off the books.

I still think that with the talent on this team they aren't burning a year just to burn it.

I think they expect to win now.

RippedmyFlesh · 08-20-2018, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bewbies

Watching every play from Alex Smith over the last 5 years I have no idea why people think he's as good as they say he is. What's frustrating with him is he has the talent to be great, but doesn't have the balls or something.

I agree. We fans are used to seeing obvious examples of a players psych state adversely affect performance. Every sport has examples of head cases not fulfilling talent. These people have traits that society considers negative.
Smith however is very respectable as a person not having the character flaws of others I described yet his inhibitions are his own worst enemy that does negatively affect his play. Kind of like a pga player capable of winning majors from a talent stand point yet plays it safe to get AND be happy with top 10 finishes instead of wins.

KChiefs1 · 08-20-2018, 01:26 PM

Keitzman says 6-10

Bewbies · 08-20-2018, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RippedmyFlesh

I agree. We fans are used to seeing obvious examples of a players psych state adversely affect performance. Every sport has examples of head cases not fulfilling talent. These people have traits that society considers negative.
Smith however is very respectable as a person not having the character flaws of others I described yet his inhibitions are his own worst enemy that does negatively affect his play. Kind of like a pga player capable of winning majors from a talent stand point yet plays it safe to get AND be happy with top 10 finishes instead of wins.

I think Alex Smith is a great guy. Fantastic actually. Definitely the kind of man you want leading your team.

And definitely not the kind of QB you want leading your team. If you want to win big anyway.

Bewbies · 08-20-2018, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I still think that with the talent on this team they aren't burning a year just to burn it.

I think they expect to win now.

I agree with this too.

They might not be thinking Super Bowl this year, but I cannot imagine they're not thinking playoffs and division title.

OrtonsPiercedTaint · 08-20-2018, 01:29 PM

My Mahommey honeymoon is just getting started. Burned meatloaf along the way is fine

smithandrew051 · 08-20-2018, 01:34 PM

Should we take any article seriously if it lists Phillip Gaines as a “key loss”?

RippedmyFlesh · 08-20-2018, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bewbies

I agree with this too.

They might not be thinking Super Bowl this year, but I cannot imagine they're not thinking playoffs and division title.

This is what I don't get. If there was a manning led denver quality team in the division I would agree but there isn't. The other 3 teams just aren't that good.
You could make an argument that the afc west from a team stand point not individual talent is the worst division. How can you concede the worst division when you are ****ing defending champs.

DJJasonp · 08-20-2018, 01:41 PM

The comments about the defense were spot-on.

And if Peters was so great, why did we give up the most YPG to #1 WRs????

Oh yeah - because Sutton.......and he's still here.

hotrod · 08-20-2018, 01:43 PM

Why would we miss being disappointed year after year? Good guy, but he isn't going to win you a SB. This isn't about being mediocre , its about winning a championship.

08-20-2018, 12:11 PM
vailpass Psycho Bag Of Squanch Join Date: Sep 2001 Casino cash: $9594244	Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex S Which one of you banged this guy's wife then wiped your dick on the curtains? Or was it Mahomes that he caught sneaking out the window? Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex Smith Under Center Here at SI Gambling, we are going to unveil our NFL betting experts’ win total previews for all 32 NFL teams. Make sure to check out all of them, as well as the rest of our gambling content, at si.com/gambling. Chiefs 2018 win total: 8 (-160 over, +140 under) Chiefs 2017 record: 10-6 Key offseason acquisitions: WR Sammy Watkins, CB David Amerson, CB Kendall Fuller, LB Anthony Hitchens, NT Xavier Williams, CB Orlando Scandrick, RB Damien Williams, QB Chad Henne Key offseason losses: QB Alex Smith, CB Marcus Peters, LB Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson, CB Terrance Mitchell, CB Phillip Gaines, DT Bennie Logan, WR Albert Wilson, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, OL Zach Fulton, LB Ramik Wilson, OC Matt Nagy Five things to keep in mind before betting the Chiefs' win total 1. Patrick Mahomes certainly raises the Chiefs’ offensive ceiling, however he also can greatly lower the unit’s floor. Mahomes’s electric arm talent can make it easy to forget how important Alex Smith was to this team. Per Warren Sharp in his 2018 Football Preview (a read I highly recommend for all football fans), Smith’s 1.35% interception rate only trails Tom Brady’s 1.3%. Kansas City’s +31 turnover differential over the past two seasons led the NFL, with Baltimore’s +22 and Philadelphia’s +17 ranking second and third respectively. That is a rather wide margin. Turnovers obviously play a huge role in a team’s success, but ending a contest without giving the ball away was especially imperative for the Chiefs. During Smith’s entire time in K.C., the team won 77.6% of its games (38-11 record) in the regular season when he didn’t throw an interception. That number dropped to 44.4% (12-15 record) when he was picked off at least once. Mahomes will deliver more deep strikes through the air, but he will also be responsible for more negative plays, and that could end up being a major setback for this unit. 2. Another key for the Chiefs with Smith at the helm was setting the defense up for the best possible chance for success—although the defense didn’t take advantage last season (we’ll address that later). Per Football Outsiders, the average Chiefs opponent starting field position in 2017 was the 25.49-yard line, the third-best mark in that metric. That was largely due to three factors: Kansas City didn’t turn the ball over (a league-low 11 turnovers), the Chiefs averaged 34.7 yards per drive (sixth-best) and the team’s kickers did not miss many field goals to help out the opposition’s field position (41-45 on FGs, and only one miss from 50+ yards). Kansas City’s drives also lasted an average of 2:52, the eighth-longest time in the NFL. With Mahomes as the signal-caller, there will be more explosive plays, meaning a likelier chance of drives taking up less clock. His higher turnover rate will also flip the field in the opponents’ favor more often than the Chiefs have been accustomed to in recent seasons. Having this version of Kansas City’s defense on with a shorter field to defend and on for a longer period of time is a recipe for disaster. 3. On the defensive side of the ball last year, the Chiefs weren’t just bad. They were flat-out abysmal. The unit ranked 30th in defensive efficiency. Losing safety Eric Berry to a ruptured Achilles in the first game of the season was a killer, yet Kansas City allowed a league-high 192.1 yards per game to wide receivers—including a whopping 90.3 YPG to opposing No. 1 wideouts (the next-worst mark was the Jets at 82.8 YPG)—and that falls on the cornerbacks. Acquiring Kendall Fuller from the Redskins in the Smith trade will be a significant boost in the slot. However the team’s coverage on the outside will be a glaring question mark, especially after dealing ball-hawking corner Marcus Peters to the Rams. This unit will be relying on a 29-year-old safety in Berry with two major injuries already in his past and a 29-year-old pass rusher in Justin Houston who has missed 16 games in the past three seasons. The Chiefs will need those two to be a beacon of health this campaign for any hope of even a league-average defense. 4. The Chiefs have big-time weapons on offense, headlined by Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and offseason acquisition Sammy Watkins. But don’t underestimate the impact of Matt Nagy leaving to be the Bears head coach and replacing him with a first-time NFL offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy. Kansas City was fortunate that going from Doug Pederson to Nagy as OC in 2016 was a seamless transition, but will there be a smooth change this time? Bieniemy was Kansas City’s running backs coach from 2013-17, but his only experience as offensive coordinator was for the University of Colorado, his alma mater, in 2011 and 2012. Colorado’s offense finished 92nd in yards per game and 109th in scoring in 2011, and fell to 119th in YPG and 120th in scoring the following year. 5. It doesn’t get much tougher than Kansas City’s opening stretch: at Chargers, at Steelers, vs. 49ers, at Broncos, vs. Jaguars, at Patriots. Its final six games isn’t a cakewalk either: at Rams, bye, at Raiders, vs. Ravens, vs. Chargers, at Seahawks, vs. Raiders. Going from playing the AFC East and a weaker-than-usual NFC East last season to the AFC North and NFC West, playing a first-place AFC schedule and residing in the AFC West doesn’t give the Chiefs many opportunities for easy wins. PICK: UNDER 8 Wins https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/08/18/ch...ver-under-odds
Posts: 69,591

08-20-2018, 01:08 PM	#17
milkman Dumbass! Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Leading the Marty bashing Casino cash: $10029395	This team could be 0-16 this season, and Mahomes could be the biggest bust since Ryan Leaf, and I will still not miss Alex Smith. __________________
Posts: 70,769	2 0

08-20-2018, 01:19 PM	#19
Dante84 Tossed Salad & Scrambled Eggs Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: ATX & OPKS Casino cash: $1801996 VARSITY	I looked him up; the guy who wrote this article is like 20 years old and he looks like he's 12.
Posts: 19,657

08-20-2018, 01:26 PM	#23
KChiefs1 I’m a Mahomo! Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Mid-Missouri Casino cash: $6771021	Keitzman says 6-10 __________________
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08-20-2018, 01:29 PM	#26
OrtonsPiercedTaint MVP Join Date: Dec 2012 Casino cash: $10004980	My Mahommey honeymoon is just getting started. Burned meatloaf along the way is fine
Posts: 5,994

08-20-2018, 01:34 PM	#27
smithandrew051 I Like The Kansas City Chiefs Join Date: Nov 2017 Location: Shawnee, KS Casino cash: $3254400	Should we take any article seriously if it lists Phillip Gaines as a “key loss”?
Posts: 25,853	1 0

08-20-2018, 01:41 PM	#29
DJJasonp My work speaks for itself!!! Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: So Cal Casino cash: $1995200	The comments about the defense were spot-on. And if Peters was so great, why did we give up the most YPG to #1 WRs???? Oh yeah - because Sutton.......and he's still here. __________________ Its easier to fool a man, than to convince a man he's been fooled.
Posts: 11,980	0 1

08-20-2018, 01:43 PM	#30
hotrod Starter Join Date: Aug 2018 Casino cash: $10000400	Why would we miss being disappointed year after year? Good guy, but he isn't going to win you a SB. This isn't about being mediocre , its about winning a championship.
Posts: 806