538 Calls Tom Brady the 43rd Clutchest Postseason QB

[Hootie]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...s-eli-manning/

I found the following interesting:

Here’s the problem: This way of thinking about quarterbacks forces them to compete against themselves. Sure, the Patriots have often been favored to win their postseason games. But a lot of that is because Brady is their quarterback. How might the Pats have expected to do with a replacement-level QB instead?

They might not have been totally hopeless. Brady has usually had a little bit more talent surrounding him than Peyton Manning has. (Matt Cassel, who rates as somewhere between average and replacement-level, led New England to an 11-5 record when Brady was hurt in 2008.) Bill Belichick would probably have snuck them into the playoffs a few times. But they’d also have been playing good opponents. Our method projects them to a 12-14 or 13-13 postseason record rather than Brady’s 18-8.

I calculate these estimates based on a quarterback’s adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), a metric that accounts for yardage, attempts, touchdowns, interceptions and sacks — basically it’s a better version of the NFL’s passer rating. A replacement-level quarterback typically posts an ANY/A at about 80 percent of the league average, so a QB gets credit for any performance above and beyond that.1 I then translate this into points added or subtracted in the regular season2 and translate points into a team’s Elo rating to evaluate the impact the QB had on his team overall.3

It’s notoriously difficult, of course, to distinguish the performance of a quarterback from that of his teammates, but this method produces some reasonable-seeming results. This year’s Green Bay Packers project as a slightly below-average team with a replacement-level guy subbed in for Aaron Rodgers , for instance. Instead of having been 59 percent favorites in their Sunday game against the Cowboys, as they were based on Elo ratings, they’d have been roughly 2-to-1 underdogs.

The principle is simply that the better the quarterback, the more his team would be harmed by removing him. In the case of Peyton Manning’s teams, I estimate that pulling Manning would hurt them by about a touchdown (7 points) per game. That’s enough to demote them to a projected 8-16 record in the 24 postseason games Manning has played.

This article projects that, with a replacement level QB, The Patriots postseason record would have been 12-14 or 13-13 without Tom Brady (they are taking out the Bledsoe game).

It projects that Manning's teams would have been 8-16 without Peyton Manning.

Pretty much has always been my point. Manning has a history of not playing like God in the playoffs, but he has always had a hell of a lot more on his shoulders than Tom Brady. And the whole idea of the "Tom doesn't have enough weapons!!!" is criminally stupid.

[notorious]

Sanchez is #9!

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

I was never allowed back on a short leash and I'm pretty sure I'm allowed to talk about football on this board.

You suck a lot of dick, and it grosses me out.

You were graciously allowed back. And I'm pretty sure that it was conditional on you behaving yourself (i.e., a short Hootie leash). I would say that you are pulling on that leash pretty hard.

Maybe you could throttle it back a little? Thanks in advance.

[LoneWolf]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Haha.

I'm going at it by posting an article that states what I've been stating for years with statistical proof.

Tom has been OK in the postseason. Not great. Not clutch. He's been pretty good. According to this article, even a little bit better than Manning.

But neither of them have been great by any standard.

Statistical proof?! Really?!

Maybe instead of waiting tables at Bennigan's and banging chicks with bladder control issues, you should have taken a statistics class.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by Donger

You were graciously allowed back. And I'm pretty sure that it was conditional on you behaving yourself (i.e., a short Hootie leash). I would say that you are pulling on that leash pretty hard.

Maybe you could throttle it back a little? Thanks in advance.

Pulling it hard?

For posting a football topic on a football board and providing a link to an article and asking others to discuss the topic?

Wow. You're dumb!

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Pulling it hard?

For posting a football topic on a football board and providing a link to an article and asking others to discuss the topic?

Wow. You're dumb!

you already admitted you were trolling

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by LoneWolf

Statistical proof?! Really?!

Maybe instead of waiting tables at Bennigan's and banging chicks with bladder control issues, you should have taken a statistics class.

Yes.

According to the statistics ran by Nate Silver, a very respected member of sports media, Tom Brady's teams with a REPLACEMENT LEVEL QB would have gone 12.6 - 13.4 in his 26 completed postseason starts. Peyton Manning's with that same REPLACEMENT LEVEL QB would have gone 8 - 16.

Thus, the idea that Tom Brady doesn't have enough weapons is criminally stupid.

Thanks for playing.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO

you already admitted you were trolling

and you admitted you got sloppy drunk one time and sucked off a Vietnamese American in an alley behind your auto shop ...

but am I holding that against you?

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

and you admitted you got sloppy drunk one time and sucked off a Vietnamese American in an alley behind your auto shop ...

but am I holding that against you?

yeah that never could have happened you dip shit.


there isnt even an alley in the whole county i live in...

[KC native]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

and you admitted you got sloppy drunk one time and sucked off a Vietnamese American in an alley behind your auto shop ...

but am I holding that against you?

Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO

yeah that never could have happened you dip shit.


there isnt even an alley in the whole county i live in...

Yea, SAUTO sucked him off in a field. Get it right.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Pulling it hard?

For posting a football topic on a football board and providing a link to an article and asking others to discuss the topic?

Wow. You're dumb!

Yes, pulling it hard.

You admitted that this thread is trolling and you already started a thread on this same reeruned subject matter.

[SAUTO]

and i guarantee i can hold my liquor infinity times better than your dumb ass.

[Hootie]

***OFFICIAL APOLOGY***

I apologize for posting an article I read on ESPN by Nate Silver that calls into question the idea that Tom Brady is the best postseason QB of all time.

I realize posting football articles on ChiefsPlanet is deeply frowned upon by Donger, and I deeply apologize for that.

From now on, I'll stick to asking things like "Cardele Jones or Alex Smith", or "Philly Cheese Steak Sandwich or Alex Smith", or "AIDS or Alex Smith" just to keep things normal around here.

I realize provocative talk about hot topics in football is heavily against the rules and I feel terrible for violating those.

[Baby Lee]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

The article isn't suggesting Tom Brady had better skill level offensive players around him.

It's suggesting that he had much better teams around him. Teams. Not just an offense. Teams.

For instance.

In Tom Brady's 9-0 start to his postseason career, the most important part of those teams were the defense. Tom was in charge of just trying to be efficient and not ****ing up. We all know that.

Skews the numbers.

Peyton has always had to be the best player on his team. Always. Tom? Not during the successful part of his postseason career. Those teams were always defensive minded teams with Tom being a very efficient game manager.

Hahahaha.

Who the **** cares about that in a 'QB driven' league?!?!?!



Perhaps the most tired meme in all of football.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by KC native

Yea, SAUTO sucked him off in a field. Get it right.

SAUTO aint never been a sucker.

thats what i pay you for.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

***OFFICIAL APOLOGY***

I apologize for posting an article I read on ESPN by Nate Silver that calls into question the idea that Tom Brady is the best postseason QB of all time.

I realize posting football articles on ChiefsPlanet is deeply frowned upon by Donger, and I deeply apologize for that.

From now on, I'll stick to asking things like "Cardele Jones or Alex Smith", or "Philly Cheese Steak Sandwich or Alex Smith", or "AIDS or Alex Smith" just to keep things normal around here.

I realize provocative talk about hot topics in football is heavily against the rules and I feel terrible for violating those.

I accept your apology. That's a good boy.