Walter Football is at it again

[Misplaced_Chiefs_Fan]

Poor Walter - still doesn't like the Chiefs.
Even when he says the Ravens have no chance, he still has to point out all the flaws in our "overrated" team.


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Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-9)
Line: Chiefs by 7.5. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -5.
Walt's Calculated Line: Chiefs -6.
Sunday, Dec 20, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.


BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens made some news Monday by signing Ryan Mallett, who agreed to a contract that allows for 14 missed practices because of broken alarms. It was quite the deal for Mallett, who won't have to worry about being late very often.

In all seriousness, the Mallett addition was first seen as a sign that Matt Schaub wouldn't be available for this contest, but Baltimore simply wanted Mallett to groom him as a backup of the future. It'll be either Schaub or Jimmy Clausen in this matchup, which means pick-sixes or checkdowns. It won't matter very much against a ferocious Kansas City defense that has clamped down on bad offenses quite often recently. Tamba Hali and the emerging Dee Ford are going to completely disrupt Baltimore's offensive rhythm.

The Ravens' only hope is to get the ball early and often to Buck Allen. Wait, I just realized how dumb that sounded. Scratch that, Baltimore has no hope. The Chiefs are tied for eighth versus the run in terms of YPC, and over the past month, they've surrendered just 3.13 YPC.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE:The Ravens have a well-documented liability on this side of the ball. Their secondary has been in shambles all year, and a lacking pass rush doesn't help matters. However, this might not be the worst matchup for them because Alex Smith doesn't have a habit of connecting on deep passes downfield. In fact, Smith was intercepted on a long try to Jeremy Maclin against the Chargers, as his pass was predictably underthrown.

Smith will have some success dinking and dunking, and he'll also pick up some first downs with his legs. However, there is some concern in this regard, as Baltimore defends tight ends extremely well. Smith may not be able to connect with Travis Kelce all that much, which could force some punts.

The Chiefs, of course, will attempt to establish the run. They may not have Spencer Ware, but that's fine because Charcandrick West can handle the workload on his own. Having said that, West may not have the success that most anticipate. Remember when I said the Chiefs were tied for eighth against the rush? The team they're tied with is Baltimore.

RECAP: The Ravens are another team that will be looking to get back to basics following an embarrassing loss. It's a fair point to wonder if they can actually do that, given the number of injuries they've sustained, but there's no question that they'll be battling a team far worse than Seattle this week. That'll give Baltimore a chance to hang around, and it's worth noting that before the Seattle contest, the Ravens hadn't lost by more than eight points to anyone all year.

As for the Chiefs, they're a very overrated team right now. They could've easily lost their previous two games, and I don't think they'll be completely focused here. Thus, I'm picking Baltimore, but I can't say I have much confidence in the selection; I don't really feel like wagering any money on either Clausen or Schaub unless it's against another bad team (like the Dolphins back in Week 13.)

WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is falling a bit to -7 -115 or -120, indicating that there's sharp money on Baltimore. It's too early to say for sure, but there's no way the pros will be on Kansas City. This line is too large.


The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.

I don't think the Ravens will have Kansas City's full attention. They'll be looking to get things right following a blowout loss.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Everyone is betting the Chiefs, of course.
• Percentage of money on Kansas City: 82% (5,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
• John Harbaugh is 9-3 ATS following a loss of 10+.
• Opening Line: Chiefs -7.5.
• Opening Total: 43.
• Weather: .


Week 15 NFL Pick: Chiefs 16, Ravens 10
Ravens +7.5 (0 Units)
Under 41.5 (0 Units)


Read more at http://walterfootball.com/nflpicks20...0xVf2yuypWl.99

[Misplaced_Chiefs_Fan]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

I hope he has been betting against the Chiefs.

Apparently he's lost quite a bit of money the past few weeks on us.

However, he's not putting any money on this game (hence: no units).

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Something I've noticed about Sean Smith - if he's not dancing, he's going to play poorly.

In that Bills game, the dude was stoic and bundled up the whole time. He looked miserable and appeared to be a guy that really didn't want to play. Sho 'nuff, the first half was as poorly as he's played in KC.

Last week he was fired up and dancing during warmups again.

I'd imagine there's no way to see it on the TV, but if Smith's dancing, he's going to ball out. Mentality means a shitload in the NFL.

That Buffalo game was really cold.

I like your points about the winning streak, but hope it's different mentally in coming back from 1-5 as opposed to an undefeated run. The team keeps finding ways to win, through injuries and losses of the best players on both sides of the ball. Players keep stepping up.

Signs of a good team.

[Saul Good]

Psychology edge to Baltimore? The team with nothing to play for has the mental edge over the team on a 7 game winning streak fighting for the playoffs?

[hometeam]

Walter and Pete Prisco can suck my balls

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by staylor26

If healthy (and Berry is re-signed) that's the best secondary in the NFL and it's not even close.

Ehh, as much as I hate to say it I think Denver probably still has the best secondary in the league until proven otherwise.

Those dudes are just shutting people down. Right now, Talib > Smith, Harris > Peters, and Roby > Gaines. I like our safeties more, though.

[TLO]

didn't read

[Otter]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

Psychology edge to Baltimore? The team with nothing to play for has the mental edge over the team on a 7 game winning streak fighting for the playoffs?

Misery loves company. A bad team who is done for the season being considered a phone in win able to knock the team with a 7 game winning streak and playoff hopes down a notch. In other words: spoiler.

Not entirely far fetched.

[Toby Waller]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

Psychology edge to Baltimore? The team with nothing to play for has the mental edge over the team on a 7 game winning streak fighting for the playoffs?

nothing to lose except an nfl job

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Otter

Misery loves company. A bad team who is done for the season being considered a phone in win able to knock the team with a 7 game winning streak and playoff hopes down a notch. In other words: spoiler.

Not entirely far fetched.

In other words: it's a trap!

[Mother****erJones]

Originally Posted by Li'l Smokey

In other words: it's a trap!

Tarp!

[Lex Luthor]

Originally Posted by Bowser

Walter is pretty amazing. I've never seen a national columnist guy just try to will a particular team to lose every. single. week.

Did Marty once **** his girlfriend, too?

I had forgotten about that rumor. Whose girlfriend was it that Marty supposedly ****ed? Was it Greg Hill?

[007]

He picked us to win? shit we are ****ed.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by Guru

He picked us to win? shit we are ****ed.

No, he picks the Ravens.

[Misplaced_Chiefs_Fan]

And he lost another $100 making a last minute bet against us.

He'll never learn

[cmh6476]

anyone who tries to predict more than a couple rounds of the nfl draft is a looser