Chiefs Author says Watkins signing was a "reckless decision". - Page 6

T-post Tom · 01:46 PM

Overcorrection at WR2 strange strategy for Chiefs

For over a decade, the Kansas City Chiefs either could not find the right No. 2 wide receiver or deemed the job a low priority.

The Andy Reid years regarded the role as a non-essential component in an offense that funnels through Travis Kelce, whoever is playing running back, and the player lining up as Kansas City’s No. 1 wideout. The Chiefs — who have spent over half of the past 30 years running their aerial attack through All-Pro-caliber tight ends — have not had two wide receivers amass more than 800 air yards in the same season since Carlos Carson and Stephone Paige did so in 1985.

Even last summer — when the Chiefs, on the surface, seemed to have a quality wideout tandem in Tyreek Hill and Jeremy Maclin — the franchise’s tendencies resurfaced when Maclin was a surprise cut.

To see the Chiefs overcorrect to the degree they did this week in signing Sammy Watkins was stunning on several fronts.

If everything goes as the team hopes, the Chiefs now have the best wide receiver duo they’ve possessed in the history of the franchise. The top four weapons Kansas City has could rival almost any crew in the league, with a perennial Pro Bowler at tight end and the reigning rushing champion in the mix for years. Reid and Brett Veach have outfitted Patrick Mahomes with the kind of artillery Alex Smith never received. It’s a tantalizing setup.

All of that said, this can be categorized as a reckless decision.

In a vacuum, Watkins being paid $16 million per year and receiving $30M guaranteed is ludicrous based on his qualifications. He’s now the fourth-highest-paid wide receiver on the planet when he might not be a top-20 player at the position. But free agency demands high-stakes buyers treat above-average talent like franchise-changing presences, and the cap continues to rise by approximately $10M annually.

When analyzing this transaction through a Chief lens, it’s also a weird call.

As has been the case every year since the Eddie Kennison-Johnnie Morton pair disbanded, the Chiefs could have probably used a WR2 upgrade. They haven’t selected a wideout in the first or second rounds since the disastrous 2011 Jonathan Baldwin pick. Watkins, at his very best version when healthy, is slightly overqualified to be referred to as such. Hill took a major step forward last season, though, and is the top Chief receiver. There were several areas that could have used this gigantic expenditure more than wide receiver.

Kansas City has needs across its defense, which continued to regress last season. Its top two edge rushers are injury-prone, with one (Dee Ford) proving unreliable through four years. There are no long-term answers on the defensive line beyond Chris Jones. Since the Chiefs traded away their best cornerback in at least 20 years, that is a priority.

More than that, how much is Watkins going to matter to this team?

His agent did a brilliant job, and there was clearly a big market for him — and other receivers, as this unexpected boom displayed. Equipping a young quarterback with more receiving help is a good idea. Watkins has averaged the fourth-most yards per catch (15.9) since 2014. The deep threat also has produced an arguably unsustainable (but impressive) touchdown rate with 25 in 52 games. But there’s a difference between the Bears doling out $14M per year to Allen Robinson and this.

Chicago desperately needed offensive weapons, having no threats at wide receiver or tight end. The Chiefs have — now that Rob Gronkowski is a year-to-year proposition — the most valuable tight end in the game. Hill is on the verge of becoming one of the NFL’s premier wideouts.

Reid’s playbook has used this job as a niche role. Kelce will still be the offensive focal point, and Hunt’s and Hill’s futures are glowing. Granted, Watkins is better than Albert Wilson, Chris Conley or Donnie Avery. But is Watkins — in this offense — worth $16 million when other positions are in dire need of aid?

This is like an NBC executive circa 2009 saying, “We really aren’t getting what we need out of the HR character on ‘The Office.’ What can we offer Seth Rogen to come in and replace Toby?”

As you may have heard, Watkins did not exactly thrive in his contract year. Despite being part of a cutting-edge Ram scheme, the former No. 4 pick caught 39 passes for 593 yards (a distant fourth in Sean McVay’s attack) and eight touchdowns.

To some degree, that showing could be written off because of Watkins’ late-offseason relocation. That would justify the Chiefs’ investment if Watkins wasn’t constantly battling nagging or season-defining injuries. Multiple severe foot ailments limited him to eight games in 2016. Two screws were inserted in Watkins’ foot in January of 2017 after recovery setbacks. An ankle injury cost him two games in 2015, and while he didn’t miss any games as a rookie, the Clemson product required hip surgery after the 2014 season. But he did play in every regular season game the Rams asked him to last year.

Coupled with the fit and the shaky contract year, this is a lot to disregard to justify the expense.

Reid remains one of the best offensive coaches in the game. He created an offense catered to an average quarterback’s talents, and the Chiefs rode it to four playoff berths in five years. The Mahomes offense could look remarkably different. Watkins — who will be only 25 this season — nearly posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with Kyle Orton and Tyrod Taylor targeting him. However, that still doesn’t justify paying an arguably superfluous cog $16M per season.

Cheaper receivers were available. Signing one of those could have created more room to find defensive help while still upgrading on offense. This deal won’t cripple the Chiefs in the long run, but within the next three years, Hill will need to be extended.

He has two more seasons remaining on his rookie contract and likely will outproduce Watkins this season. Hill will be eligible for an extension in 2019. That could be confusing and cause cuts elsewhere when a hired gun with a low floor and debatable ceiling is now making more than Julio Jones and A.J. Green. No team has more than two WRs making $12M per year.

Again, this upgrades the Chiefs’ offense — perhaps significantly, given the attention that could come Watkins’ way to then help teammates. With a first-round quarterback with potentially top-flight arm strength, this will make the Chiefs a must-see team on offense.

Yet, it’s hard to rationalize the signing for a team that did not need to allocate these resources to fixing this particular deficiency — especially when the player comes with this many question marks.

https://www.fanragsports.com/chiefs/overcorrection-at-wr2-strange-strategy-for-chiefs/

**DaneMcCloud** · 03-17-2018, 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefGator

We have four year window.

If Mahomes is who they think he is, the Chiefs have at least a 10 year window, if not a 15 year window

**ChiefGator** · 03-17-2018, 04:59 PM

Agreed.. hopefully the window is huge, but it is certainly not just a two year window. Not even sure where the previous poster got two years... Based on Watkins?

Nickhead · 03-17-2018, 05:06 PM

Quote:

“I’m not a big city guy or into that party life,” he added. “I just wanted to be somewhere where I can be comfortable, where my family can be comfortable. My daughter’s getting older…I can raise my family and be happy here, and that’s what made me choose here.”

talk about saying the right things about your new city

**Easy 6** · 03-17-2018, 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

If Mahomes is who they think he is, the Chiefs have at least a 10 year window, if not a 15 year window

Patrick was designed to play football by God himself, lets call it 15 years

I still cant think of enough superlatives for that kid... from college, to NFL preseason, to Denver week 17 that guy has done nothing but KILL IT

We should all say nightly prayers to that since fired Buffalo GM for passing on him... Elway, Favre, Rodgers etc... he is one of those guys, I'd bet my life on it

hitchief · 03-17-2018, 05:19 PM

The guy is right.

Just look at the O and D stats at years end. Tell me where this team needed help. Not what is fun or what you wish (cause its like Madden) but what this TEAM NEEDED? If you cant say defense, your an idiot.

Its just too much to spend on a position that was not a need.

We could not stop the run, pass and or get off the dam field on 3rd down, hardly ever!

I know it makes a lot of you happy cause you think it will justify your position on Pat (help him have huge stats) but he and the O was going to have a big year anyway.

Whatever, but you all are going to hate life when we cant spot s*** or keep losing leads at the end of the game cause once again, we haven't in the past 2 years and wont with this D.

TomBarndtsTwin · 03-17-2018, 05:56 PM

Calm your tits.

We gave out exactly 2 big FA contracts; one on offense and one on defense. Of course they’re going to do everything possible to make the transition to Mahomes full time a successful one. But, again, also spent big money on a LBer. And I have no doubt the majority of their draft picks will be spent on defense this year.

We finished, what, 28th in total defense last year? And that was with Peters, ‘talented’ veteran guys, etc. So what’s the point. If you’re gonna rank down there with that much ‘talent’, may as well cut bait with a lot of it, get younger and more athletic and set yourself up for the future. Easiest way to do that is re-build through the draft.

The Chiefs may (although I doubt it) finish near the bottom of the league next year again in total defense, but at least they won’t be committing 65% of their cap money to that side of the ball. It was time to bring things more back into balance.

Some people need to quit freaking the **** out about the Watkins signing. It’s basicaly a 2 year deal, anyway. Calm the **** down. It’s ****ing annoying.

Sweet Daddy Hate · 03-17-2018, 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hitchief

The guy is right.

Just look at the O and D stats at years end. Tell me where this team needed help. Not what is fun or what you wish (cause its like Madden) but what this TEAM NEEDED? If you cant say defense, your an idiot.

Its just too much to spend on a position that was not a need.

We could not stop the run, pass and or get off the dam field on 3rd down, hardly ever!

I know it makes a lot of you happy cause you think it will justify your position on Pat (help him have huge stats) but he and the O was going to have a big year anyway.

Whatever, but you all are going to hate life when we cant spot s*** or keep losing leads at the end of the game cause once again, we haven't in the past 2 years and wont with this D.

Most of us with functioning brains understand that the defense is a minimum two season build up from where we stand today. You have to roll with what you're given and we've been given an incredible QB. The offensive talent was available to augment, and that's what we did. I can assure you that the next two drafts will be defensive-centric, and we'll get to where we need to be.
In the meantime, I'll just enjoy watching some exciting and competent offense for a change, run by someone with a superior skill set who didn't come from the Dollar Tree school of QB selection, thanks.

Chiefsallday · 03-18-2018, 10:00 AM

Can you feel the hate? Sammy Watkins was a great signing. We’ll be saying we got him for cheap by the end of the 2018 season barring injury. #GoChiefs

**ptlyon** · 03-18-2018, 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

Calm your tits.

Tits calmed. Thank you.

Danguardace · 03-18-2018, 10:10 AM

Apologies if this is posted but Bill Polian hating

chiefzilla1501 · 03-18-2018, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hitchief

The guy is right.

Just look at the O and D stats at years end. Tell me where this team needed help. Not what is fun or what you wish (cause its like Madden) but what this TEAM NEEDED? If you cant say defense, your an idiot.

Its just too much to spend on a position that was not a need.

We could not stop the run, pass and or get off the dam field on 3rd down, hardly ever!

I know it makes a lot of you happy cause you think it will justify your position on Pat (help him have huge stats) but he and the O was going to have a big year anyway.

Whatever, but you all are going to hate life when we cant spot s*** or keep losing leads at the end of the game cause once again, we haven't in the past 2 years and wont with this D.

Our mentality is changing. We don't need a stellar defense. Mediocre will be fine. And we're not that far away, and frankly, if our scheme didn't suck so much last year, we're probably a lot closer than you think. A lot more worried about D scheme than I am personnel.

If Mahomes is what we think he'll be, with this offense, we're going to need a lot less defense.

chiefzilla1501 · 03-18-2018, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danguardace

Apologies if this is posted but Bill Polian hating

The only way for him to drop less passes is to drop -1 passes. They have no clue what they're talking about.

**petegz28** · 03-18-2018, 10:43 AM

Sometimes the best way to compensate for a struggling defense is to have a high-scoring offense.

**petegz28** · 03-18-2018, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

Our mentality is changing. We don't need a stellar defense. Mediocre will be fine. And we're not that far away, and frankly, if our scheme didn't suck so much last year, we're probably a lot closer than you think. A lot more worried about D scheme than I am personnel.

If Mahomes is what we think he'll be, with this offense, we're going to need a lot less defense.

I agree with this. The scheme bothers me. But, is the scheme that way because of our talent? Or is it the scheme Sutton wants to run regardless of talent? The latter worries me the most. Drop 8-rush 3 isn't the scheme I would like to see us run. Too much time for talented QB's and WR's to get open.

**notorious** · 03-18-2018, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

Our mentality is changing. We don't need a stellar defense. Mediocre will be fine. And we're not that far away, and frankly, if our scheme didn't suck so much last year, we're probably a lot closer than you think. A lot more worried about D scheme than I am personnel.

If Mahomes is what we think he'll be, with this offense, we're going to need a lot less defense.

I just want a good situational defense. That's all that it takes to win big.

03-16-2018, 01:40 PM
T-post Tom Threepeat! Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Milk/Honey/Gazland Casino cash: $4597293	Author says Watkins signing was a "reckless decision". Overcorrection at WR2 strange strategy for Chiefs For over a decade, the Kansas City Chiefs either could not find the right No. 2 wide receiver or deemed the job a low priority. The Andy Reid years regarded the role as a non-essential component in an offense that funnels through Travis Kelce, whoever is playing running back, and the player lining up as Kansas City’s No. 1 wideout. The Chiefs — who have spent over half of the past 30 years running their aerial attack through All-Pro-caliber tight ends — have not had two wide receivers amass more than 800 air yards in the same season since Carlos Carson and Stephone Paige did so in 1985. Even last summer — when the Chiefs, on the surface, seemed to have a quality wideout tandem in Tyreek Hill and Jeremy Maclin — the franchise’s tendencies resurfaced when Maclin was a surprise cut. To see the Chiefs overcorrect to the degree they did this week in signing Sammy Watkins was stunning on several fronts. If everything goes as the team hopes, the Chiefs now have the best wide receiver duo they’ve possessed in the history of the franchise. The top four weapons Kansas City has could rival almost any crew in the league, with a perennial Pro Bowler at tight end and the reigning rushing champion in the mix for years. Reid and Brett Veach have outfitted Patrick Mahomes with the kind of artillery Alex Smith never received. It’s a tantalizing setup. All of that said, this can be categorized as a reckless decision. In a vacuum, Watkins being paid $16 million per year and receiving $30M guaranteed is ludicrous based on his qualifications. He’s now the fourth-highest-paid wide receiver on the planet when he might not be a top-20 player at the position. But free agency demands high-stakes buyers treat above-average talent like franchise-changing presences, and the cap continues to rise by approximately $10M annually. When analyzing this transaction through a Chief lens, it’s also a weird call. As has been the case every year since the Eddie Kennison-Johnnie Morton pair disbanded, the Chiefs could have probably used a WR2 upgrade. They haven’t selected a wideout in the first or second rounds since the disastrous 2011 Jonathan Baldwin pick. Watkins, at his very best version when healthy, is slightly overqualified to be referred to as such. Hill took a major step forward last season, though, and is the top Chief receiver. There were several areas that could have used this gigantic expenditure more than wide receiver. Kansas City has needs across its defense, which continued to regress last season. Its top two edge rushers are injury-prone, with one (Dee Ford) proving unreliable through four years. There are no long-term answers on the defensive line beyond Chris Jones. Since the Chiefs traded away their best cornerback in at least 20 years, that is a priority. More than that, how much is Watkins going to matter to this team? His agent did a brilliant job, and there was clearly a big market for him — and other receivers, as this unexpected boom displayed. Equipping a young quarterback with more receiving help is a good idea. Watkins has averaged the fourth-most yards per catch (15.9) since 2014. The deep threat also has produced an arguably unsustainable (but impressive) touchdown rate with 25 in 52 games. But there’s a difference between the Bears doling out $14M per year to Allen Robinson and this. Chicago desperately needed offensive weapons, having no threats at wide receiver or tight end. The Chiefs have — now that Rob Gronkowski is a year-to-year proposition — the most valuable tight end in the game. Hill is on the verge of becoming one of the NFL’s premier wideouts. Reid’s playbook has used this job as a niche role. Kelce will still be the offensive focal point, and Hunt’s and Hill’s futures are glowing. Granted, Watkins is better than Albert Wilson, Chris Conley or Donnie Avery. But is Watkins — in this offense — worth $16 million when other positions are in dire need of aid? This is like an NBC executive circa 2009 saying, “We really aren’t getting what we need out of the HR character on ‘The Office.’ What can we offer Seth Rogen to come in and replace Toby?” As you may have heard, Watkins did not exactly thrive in his contract year. Despite being part of a cutting-edge Ram scheme, the former No. 4 pick caught 39 passes for 593 yards (a distant fourth in Sean McVay’s attack) and eight touchdowns. To some degree, that showing could be written off because of Watkins’ late-offseason relocation. That would justify the Chiefs’ investment if Watkins wasn’t constantly battling nagging or season-defining injuries. Multiple severe foot ailments limited him to eight games in 2016. Two screws were inserted in Watkins’ foot in January of 2017 after recovery setbacks. An ankle injury cost him two games in 2015, and while he didn’t miss any games as a rookie, the Clemson product required hip surgery after the 2014 season. But he did play in every regular season game the Rams asked him to last year. Coupled with the fit and the shaky contract year, this is a lot to disregard to justify the expense. Reid remains one of the best offensive coaches in the game. He created an offense catered to an average quarterback’s talents, and the Chiefs rode it to four playoff berths in five years. The Mahomes offense could look remarkably different. Watkins — who will be only 25 this season — nearly posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with Kyle Orton and Tyrod Taylor targeting him. However, that still doesn’t justify paying an arguably superfluous cog $16M per season. Cheaper receivers were available. Signing one of those could have created more room to find defensive help while still upgrading on offense. This deal won’t cripple the Chiefs in the long run, but within the next three years, Hill will need to be extended. He has two more seasons remaining on his rookie contract and likely will outproduce Watkins this season. Hill will be eligible for an extension in 2019. That could be confusing and cause cuts elsewhere when a hired gun with a low floor and debatable ceiling is now making more than Julio Jones and A.J. Green. No team has more than two WRs making $12M per year. Again, this upgrades the Chiefs’ offense — perhaps significantly, given the attention that could come Watkins’ way to then help teammates. With a first-round quarterback with potentially top-flight arm strength, this will make the Chiefs a must-see team on offense. Yet, it’s hard to rationalize the signing for a team that did not need to allocate these resources to fixing this particular deficiency — especially when the player comes with this many question marks. https://www.fanragsports.com/chiefs/overcorrection-at-wr2-strange-strategy-for-chiefs/ Last edited by T-post Tom; 03-16-2018 at 01:46 PM..
Posts: 20,211

03-17-2018, 04:59 PM	#77
ChiefGator Can these boys not play? Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Northcentral Florida Casino cash: $7762956	Agreed.. hopefully the window is huge, but it is certainly not just a two year window. Not even sure where the previous poster got two years... Based on Watkins? __________________ - Mark
Posts: 4,597

03-17-2018, 05:19 PM	#80
hitchief Starter Join Date: Apr 2013 Casino cash: $10005314	The guy is right. Just look at the O and D stats at years end. Tell me where this team needed help. Not what is fun or what you wish (cause its like Madden) but what this TEAM NEEDED? If you cant say defense, your an idiot. Its just too much to spend on a position that was not a need. We could not stop the run, pass and or get off the dam field on 3rd down, hardly ever! I know it makes a lot of you happy cause you think it will justify your position on Pat (help him have huge stats) but he and the O was going to have a big year anyway. Whatever, but you all are going to hate life when we cant spot s*** or keep losing leads at the end of the game cause once again, we haven't in the past 2 years and wont with this D.
Posts: 413

03-17-2018, 05:56 PM	#81
TomBarndtsTwin MVP Join Date: Mar 2013 Casino cash: $5119883	Calm your tits. We gave out exactly 2 big FA contracts; one on offense and one on defense. Of course they’re going to do everything possible to make the transition to Mahomes full time a successful one. But, again, also spent big money on a LBer. And I have no doubt the majority of their draft picks will be spent on defense this year. We finished, what, 28th in total defense last year? And that was with Peters, ‘talented’ veteran guys, etc. So what’s the point. If you’re gonna rank down there with that much ‘talent’, may as well cut bait with a lot of it, get younger and more athletic and set yourself up for the future. Easiest way to do that is re-build through the draft. The Chiefs may (although I doubt it) finish near the bottom of the league next year again in total defense, but at least they won’t be committing 65% of their cap money to that side of the ball. It was time to bring things more back into balance. Some people need to quit freaking the ** out about the Watkins signing. It’s basicaly a 2 year deal, anyway. Calm the down. It’s *ing annoying. Last edited by TomBarndtsTwin; 03-17-2018 at 06:09 PM..*
Posts: 8,778

03-18-2018, 10:00 AM	#83
Chiefsallday Chiefsallday Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Downtown KC Casino cash: $9766512	Can you feel the hate? Sammy Watkins was a great signing. We’ll be saying we got him for cheap by the end of the 2018 season barring injury. #GoChiefs
Posts: 82

03-18-2018, 10:10 AM	#85
Danguardace Veteran Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Shrewsbury England Casino cash: $2075590	Apologies if this is posted but Bill Polian hating
Posts: 2,396

03-18-2018, 10:43 AM	#88
petegz28 Supporter Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Olathe, Ks Casino cash: $2814127	Sometimes the best way to compensate for a struggling defense is to have a high-scoring offense.
Posts: 127,999