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Old 08-25-2015, 03:01 PM  
Skyy God Skyy God is offline
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Football Outsiders on the Chiefs
Spoiler: they (and statistics) don't like Smith.

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Kansas City Chiefs:

Third down is where Alex Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third-down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts. It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers.
http://deadspin.com/32-paragraphs-ab...-to-1724296650
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Old 08-25-2015, 06:46 PM   #31
Stryker Stryker is offline
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I will choose to stay positive, we have Charles, Maclin and Kelce. Last year was Bowe and Fasano. Its going to be fine. Quit worrying/slamming. Can the season start before throwing in the towel? Really?
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Old 08-25-2015, 07:13 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by FringeNC View Post
Let's put things in perspective here: Despite the horrendous line last year (#27-ranked according to PFF) and below par WR corps, the Chiefs were #17 in yards per play on offense. The gloom and doom around here is hard to understand. If Alex Smith was anyway near as bad as most of you think, we'd have been much, much worse on offense last year rather than middle of the pack.

A crap line + a crap QB = worst offensive in league. Hardly what we observed last year.
there's this charles dude
he may have contributed, and the other guy kelce
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Old 08-25-2015, 07:14 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by milkman View Post
Every QB relies on YAC to some extent.

This article, however, points out that there isn't any QB who relies on it more.

It is a big reason that Smith and the 9ers converted only 1 of 12 or 13 3rd downs in the NFC championship game against the Giants.
9 of 16 3rd down conversion rate against the Colts in his playoff game here.

Look, in Alex Smith's time here, we can break it down pretty easy.

1st half of 2013 -- awful O-line, pretty bad offense
2nd half of 2013 -- pretty good O-line, good to very good offense
2014 - awful O-line, average offense

The overall offense has overachieved relative to the offensive line performance. That certainly suggests to me that Alex Smith has been a pretty good QB for us. Is he Aaron Rodgers? No, but there seems to be this belief on here unless a QB is a first ballot HOFer, he's a bum. Hell, half the board thought Trent Green was a bum.

Put it this way, if we have the D that we think we may have, and at least an average offensive line, this may be the best team in the league. (And by objective metrics we've been in top 10 the last two years). This Alex Smith hate is insane given the context of what's going on with this team. You can obsess over Alex Smith's supposed limitations, or you can rightly get pumped over this upcoming season. If you want to take the "woe is me as a Chief's fan", feel free to be miserable while I enjoy the season.
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Old 08-25-2015, 11:31 PM   #34
Pasta Little Brioni Pasta Little Brioni is offline
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AIR MINUS NEED DIFFERENTIAL this is getting silly
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Old 08-26-2015, 02:58 AM   #35
Bob Dole Bob Dole is offline
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Originally Posted by FringeNC View Post
9 of 16 3rd down conversion rate against the Colts in his playoff game here.

Look, in Alex Smith's time here, we can break it down pretty easy.

1st half of 2013 -- awful O-line, pretty bad offense
2nd half of 2013 -- pretty good O-line, good to very good offense
2014 - awful O-line, average offense

The overall offense has overachieved relative to the offensive line performance. That certainly suggests to me that Alex Smith has been a pretty good QB for us. Is he Aaron Rodgers? No, but there seems to be this belief on here unless a QB is a first ballot HOFer, he's a bum. Hell, half the board thought Trent Green was a bum.

Put it this way, if we have the D that we think we may have, and at least an average offensive line, this may be the best team in the league. (And by objective metrics we've been in top 10 the last two years). This Alex Smith hate is insane given the context of what's going on with this team. You can obsess over Alex Smith's supposed limitations, or you can rightly get pumped over this upcoming season. If you want to take the "woe is me as a Chief's fan", feel free to be miserable while I enjoy the season.
But his fantasy stats are terrible!

Bob Dole doesn't care if he goes 8-12 for 60 yards, as long as the team wins.

Fantasy football has ruined any reasonable football discussion.
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Old 08-26-2015, 03:50 AM   #36
Sweet Daddy Hate Sweet Daddy Hate is offline
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Originally Posted by beach tribe View Post
I also read that hidden TDs are better than TDs to WRs.


That would be the "two in the bush"-offense.
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Old 08-26-2015, 08:04 AM   #37
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KC is not gonna take the division away from Denver. They're playing for a WC. They have a decent shot at it in spite of their issues.
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Old 08-26-2015, 10:10 AM   #38
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KC is not gonna take the division away from Denver
Complete bullshit.
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Old 08-26-2015, 10:15 AM   #39
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But his fantasy stats are terrible!

Bob Dole doesn't care if he goes 8-12 for 60 yards, as long as the team wins.

Fantasy football has ruined any reasonable football discussion.

Do you care if he doesn't throw TDs to WRs?
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I would read an entire blog of SNR breaking down athletes' musical capabilities like draft scouting reports.
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Old 08-26-2015, 10:19 AM   #40
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Do you care if he doesn't throw TDs to WRs?

Not as long as that BBQ keeps a-comin'!
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Old 08-26-2015, 02:36 PM   #41
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KC is not gonna take the division away from Denver. They're playing for a WC. They have a decent shot at it in spite of their issues.
Both teams have made changes, but besides your normal player turnover, dungver is also starting with a new coaching staff and a 39 year old QB on the decline. I know we have a meh QB and the o-line is what it is, but I don't think they're running away with the division
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Old 08-26-2015, 02:56 PM   #42
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Old 08-26-2015, 05:19 PM   #43
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Complete bullshit.
Uh-oh; someone's got some 5-hour energy in their Shitloaf today!
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Old 08-26-2015, 09:31 PM   #44
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These stats mean absoluely nothing unless you take into account that he had Swiss cheese for an offensive line.
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