The First Round QB

[ILChief]

OK, everyone knows it is beyond ridiculous that the Chiefs haven't drafted a QB in round 1 since Todd Blackledge in 1983. As much as I love Derrick Johnson, I can't look at him without thinking of Aaron Rodgers. That got me thinking, how many first round QB's have the other teams taken in that time span? Has every other team taken multiple first round QBs since 1983? Well, here is the breakdown:

Patriots: Drew Bledsoe (93)
Bills: JP Losman (04), EJ Manuel (13)
Jets: Chad Pennington (00), Mark Sanchez (09)
Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill (12)

Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger (04)
Bengals: David Klingler (92), Akili Smith (99), Carson Palmer (03)
Old Browns/Ravens: Kyle Boller (03), Joe Flacco (08)
New Browns: Tim Couch (99), Brady Quinn (07), Branden Weeden (12), Johnny Manziel (14)

Texans: David Carr (02)
Oilers/Titans: Jim Everett (86), Steve McNair (94), Vince Young (06), Jake Locker (11), Marcus Mariota (15)
Jaguars: Byron Leftwich (03), Blaine Gabbert (11), Blake Bortles (14)
Colts: Jeff George (90), Peyton Manning (98), Andrew Luck (12)

Broncos: Tommy Maddox (92), Jay Cutler (06), Tim Tebow (10), Paxton Lynch (16)
Raiders: Todd Marinovich (91), Jamarcus Russell (07)
Chargers: Ryan Leaf (98), Philip Rivers (04)

Cowboys: Troy Aikman (89)
Eagles: Donovan McNabb (99), Carson Wentz (16)
Giants: Eli Manning (04)
Redskins: Heath Shuler (94), Patrick Ramsey (02), Jason Campbell (05), Robert Griffin III (12)

Packers: Aaron Rodgers (05)
Bears: Jim Harbaugh (87), Cade McNown (99), Rex Grossman (03)
Vikings: Daunte Culpepper (99), Christian Ponder (11), Teddy Bridgewater (14)
Lions: Chuck Long (86), Andre Ware (90), Joey Harrington (02), Matt Stafford (09)

Panthers: Kerry Collins (94), Cam Newton (11)
Bucs: Vinny Testaverde (87), Trent Dilfer (94), Josh Freeman (09), Jameis Winston (15)
Saints: None
Falcons: Chris Miller (87), Michael Vick (01), Matt Ryan (08)

49ers: Jim Druckenmiller (97), Alex Smith (05)
Seahawks: Dan McGwire (91), Rick Mirer (93)
Rams: Sam Bradford (10), Jared Goff (16)
Cardinals: Kelly Stouffer (87), Matt Leinart (06)

Notes:
The Saints are the only other team to not draft a first round QB in that time (although they have had a franchise QB for a decade plus so they haven't really needed one)

The teams that have only drafted one QB in that time frame have all had a franchise QB for an extended period (except the Texans and they are a new team)

Embarassing

[ILChief]

Originally Posted by Spider2YBanana

It really is a shame Vermeil didn't take Brees as his first pick.

It would have been a difficult 5 years with that defense but I'm guessing Breesy would have won a Super Bowl with Herm Edwards coaching up the defense. I actually think that would have been a really good QB-HC combo. A lot like Manning-Dungy.

Brees handing off to prime LJ and chucking it to Bowe and Gonzalez would have been fun.

Too risky. Could have set us back

[ILChief]

Seems like the media, both local and national, are turning on Smith

[KC_Lee]

So a cold chill ran down my spine this morning as a thought occurred to me. Apparently Johnny Manziel is looking to rehab his life and image.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/lo...rry-of-tweets/

We know that Andy gave Vick a chance...what if Andy is eyeing Manziel as a reclamation project just like Vick?

What if next season or two off seasons from now we sign Johnny Manziel?

[notorious]

Originally Posted by KC_Lee

So a cold chill ran down my spine this morning as a thought occurred to me. Apparently Johnny Manziel is looking to rehab his life and image.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/lo...rry-of-tweets/

We know that Andy gave Vick a chance...what if Andy is eyeing Manziel as a reclamation project just like Vick?

What if next season or two off seasons from now we sign Johnny Manziel?

He is pretty much the exact opposite of Smith.


This place would turn into a Tzar Bomb.

[Molitoth]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I looked at the list and noticed Rodgers and Roethlisberger as being late first round picks, and I wondered if perhaps late-first picks could be a good value, that perhaps they're guys who were overlooked.

So I made a quick formula to assess overall value. My formula was

V = YP*(%AP+%PB+%ST)*A

where

V = Career Value
YP = Years Played
%AP = Percent of Playing Years Named as All-Pro
%PB = Percent of Playing Years Named as Pro Bowler
%ST = Percent of Playing Years Named as Team's Starter (whether it was their draft team or not)
A = Adjustment for Active Players to Estimate Their Future Playing Years and Estimate Their Full Career

For those interested, I calculated A by looking at the median number of years played by retired players on the list who played longer than the active player had currently played. A adjusted their score proportionally to the median number of years they could be expected to play.

When I did that, here are the overall career values that I calculated. Overall, they seem to be a good match for production:

• Pick In Round Name Active-Adjusted Value
  1 Peyton Manning 38.0
  3 Matt Ryan 20.2
  1 Cam Newton 20.0
  24 Aaron Rodgers 19.8
  11 Ben Roethlisberger 19.4
  1 Eli Manning 17.2
  4 Philip Rivers 17.2
  1 Troy Aikman HOF 17.0
  2 Donovan McNabb 17.0
  1 Drew Bledsoe 16.0
  1 Vinny Testaverde 16.0
  1 Andrew Luck 15.4
  1 Carson Palmer 15.1
  1 Jameis Winston 13.5
  5 Kerry Collins 13.0
  3 Steve McNair 13.0
  18 Joe Flacco 13.0
  1 Matthew Stafford 12.0
  11 Jay Cutler 11.8
  1 Alex Smith 11.7
  3 Jim Everett 11.0
  26 Jim Harbaugh 11.0
  1 Michael Vick 11.0
  8 Ryan Tannehill 11.0
  1 Jeff George 9.0
  2 Marcus Mariota 9.0
  3 Blake Bortles 9.0
  1 Sam Bradford 8.6
  11 Daunte Culpepper 8.0
  13 Chris Miller 8.0
  5 Mark Sanchez 7.5
  2 Carson Wentz 7.0
  6 Trent Dilfer 7.0
  2 Robert Griffin 6.6
  3 Vince Young 6.0
  3 Joey Harrington 6.0
  18 Chad Pennington 6.0
  10 Blaine Gabbert 6.0
  25 Jason Campbell 5.0
  1 David Carr 5.0
  2 Rick Mirer 5.0
  1 Tim Couch 4.0
  17 Josh Freeman 4.0
  19 Kyle Boller 4.0
  32 Teddy Bridgewater 3.0
  12 Christian Ponder 3.0
  7 Byron Leftwich 3.0
  16 EJ Manuel 2.8
  1 JaMarcus Russell 2.0
  3 Heath Shuler 2.0
  22 Brady Quinn 2.0
  22 J.P. Losman 2.0
  22 Rex Grossman 2.0
  25 Tommy Maddox 2.0
  25 Tim Tebow 1.0
  22 Brandon Weeden 1.0
  8 Jake Locker 1.0
  3 Akili Smith 1.0
  6 David Klingler 1.0
  12 Chuck Long 1.0
  10 Matt Leinart 1.0
  32 Patrick Ramsey 1.0
  1 Jared Goff 0.0
  26 Paxton Lynch 0.0
  22 Johnny Manziel 0.0
  12 Cade McNown 0.0
  2 Ryan Leaf 0.0
  26 Jim Druckenmiller 0.0
  16 Dan McGwire 0.0
  24 Todd Marinovich 0.0
  7 Andre Ware 0.0
  6 Kelly Stouffer 0.0

35 of these players were top 5 picks. The median top five pick was Michael Vick - 7 years as a starter, 4 pro bowls. 51% of top-five picks had a value above 10, which equates to being an average 10 year starter with no pro bowls or a guy who made 5 pro bowls in 5 seasons and then retired.

16 of these players were taken between Pick 6 and Pick 15. The median QB taken between Picks 6 and 15 was Christian Ponder - 3 years as a starter and 0 pro bowls. 19% of picks in this range had a value above 10.

21 of these players were taken on Pick 16 or later. The median QB taken in this range was J.P. Losman - 2 years as a starter and 0 pro bowls. 16% of picks in this range had a value above 10.

The bottom line, then is that if you take a top-5 pick, there's about a 50 percent chance that he's going to be a long-term starter in the league with success. Outside the top five, there's about a 1 in 6 chance of that, and a greater than 50/50 likelihood that they will be total busts.

By the way, that doesn't mean you shouldn't try. We just have to modulate our expectations that we'll need to draft 6 late first rounders to get 1 10-year starter.

The Pro Bowl is a joke. I think you should have left it out of the formula.

[Nickhead]

Originally Posted by Molitoth

The Pro Bowl is a joke. I think you should have left it out of the formula.

but that would dilute the talent pool