**Week 15 Late Games Thread**

[tk13]

Broncos and Chargers underway. Seahawks/Niners coming up. Several games with big playoff implications this afternoon.

DEN @ SD
SF @ SEA
MIN @ DET
NYJ @ TEN

[thabear04]

Originally Posted by tk13

Denver wins again. I'm beginning to think this change in strategy is legit. They have completely transformed from an all-time great arena football offense to a John Fox team. Today they had 39 runs and 22 passes.

Over the last month, the Broncos have averaged 205 yards passing/game.

Manning give shit points for fantasy.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by tk13

Denver wins again. I'm beginning to think this change in strategy is legit. They have completely transformed from an all-time great arena football offense to a John Fox team. Today they had 39 runs and 22 passes.

Over the last month, the Broncos have averaged 205 yards passing/game.

if nothing else, it gives defenses something to think about

as soon as they say, "ok ... I guess we'll just stop the run" then everything opens back up for Peyton and Co.

that said, I don't think Denver is getting out of the AFC this year

Sadly, I think New England is going to be that team. I still think the Colts are pretty overrated...

I'd put it at :

New England: 45%
Denver: 20%
A team out of the AFC North: 35%

[Hootie]

but uh, yeah ... Buffalo kind of showed me what I needed to see in regards to Green Bay. If they have to play Seattle in the postseason, and especially in Seattle, I don't see Green Bay being able to handle them.

Really like my 8:1 futures bet for Seattle to win the Super Bowl. Glad I heard the news of Palmer's injury and rushed to see what I could get Seattle for.

[Dylan]

Seattle looks awesome...

[keg in kc]

I probably shouldn't take so much joy from the 9ers being eliminated from playoff contention.

Karma will end up sending Harbaugh to Ann Arbor.

[Pepe Silvia]

Originally Posted by Dylan

Seattle looks awesome...

Nobody else will get to win a SB again. I'm bummed.

[Pepe Silvia]

Originally Posted by PackerinMo

Nobody else will get to win a SB again. I'm bummed.

ok not never but for about 15 years.

[Hootie]

It's still tough to win a Super Bowl, but I think Seattle, IF they win out and end up with that #1 seed, will have around a 50-60% chance of at least getting to the Super Bowl, if not higher.

If they play Green Bay in the NFCCG, I'd have to think they'd be something like 4.5 point favorites.

That defense is just ... other worldly. And you have a QB who sits there and makes play after play after play. People like to say he doesn't have to do anything because of his defense or 'it's Marshawn Lynch who runs that offense.' Those people are dumb.

Russell is amazing. Would I take him or Luck? Fine. I'd probably take Luck even though Luck continues to do stupid ****ing things with the ball week in and week out and if this was baseball he would have a far lower WAR than Russell IMO ... but either way. These two are the next Brady / Manning.

Sickening Russell fell to the 3rd round because of his height. Puke. Donald Stephenson though!

[Pepe Silvia]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

It's still tough to win a Super Bowl, but I think Seattle, IF they win out and end up with that #1 seed, will have around a 50-60% chance of at least getting to the Super Bowl, if not higher.

If they play Green Bay in the NFCCG, I'd have to think they'd be something like 4.5 point favorites.

That defense is just ... other worldly. And you have a QB who sits there and makes play after play after play. People like to say he doesn't have to do anything because of his defense or 'it's Marshawn Lynch who runs that offense.' Those people are dumb.

Russell is amazing. Would I take him or Luck? Fine. I'd probably take Luck even though Luck continues to do stupid ****ing things with the ball week in and week out and if this was baseball he would have a far lower WAR than Russell IMO ... but either way. These two are the next Brady / Manning.

Sickening Russell fell to the 3rd round because of his height. Puke. Donald Stephenson though!

With the Frisco implosion they are no longer a threat so it will be Hawks and cards battling it out for the west for the distant future, it's that homefield advantage that makes them invincible, nobody can win there in the playoffs and they will have a cake walk to the SB most years, I know it's tough to get there but they're going to be the exception.

[tk13]

With Detroit and Seattle winning, Green Bay drops all the way down to the 6 seed in the NFC. They need to worry about getting back into the bye before worrying about the NFC title game.

[Hootie]

San Fran should have beaten them in Seattle last year. If they played that game 10 times, @ Seattle, San Fran, IMO, would have won 7 out of 10.

They are beatable in Seattle ... but Rodgers better not be 'hold on to the ball too long' Rodgers and he better be 'fine I'll take what the defense is going to give me' Rodgers.

[Hootie]

so, tk13, my question remains:

If Green Bay is 1 and done, again, in the postseason this year...

why isn't he Peyton Manning ?

Do you think anyone will start to wonder what the deal is? Or will he just keep getting pass after pass because he plays the position far prettier than anyone else?

[tk13]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

It's still tough to win a Super Bowl, but I think Seattle, IF they win out and end up with that #1 seed, will have around a 50-60% chance of at least getting to the Super Bowl, if not higher.

If they play Green Bay in the NFCCG, I'd have to think they'd be something like 4.5 point favorites.

That defense is just ... other worldly. And you have a QB who sits there and makes play after play after play. People like to say he doesn't have to do anything because of his defense or 'it's Marshawn Lynch who runs that offense.' Those people are dumb.

Russell is amazing. Would I take him or Luck? Fine. I'd probably take Luck even though Luck continues to do stupid ****ing things with the ball week in and week out and if this was baseball he would have a far lower WAR than Russell IMO ... but either way. These two are the next Brady / Manning.

Sickening Russell fell to the 3rd round because of his height. Puke. Donald Stephenson though!

Don't overthink it. The defense is driving the boat. This hot streak has entirely coincided with the defense flipping the switch. They keep playing like this, they will win it all again.

Over the last month the Seahawks are undefeated, and their defense has allowed an 6.8 points and 188 yards/game. You aren't beating them if they do that. Their offense has only scored 20 points once in that span.

[Hootie]

to me, it'll depend on how he plays...

I will always think it takes more than a QB to win a playoff game in the NFL.

I am just trying to change the perception on this board that playoff W/L record for a QB means EVERYTHING. Because it doesn't.

And guys like Rodgers prove it.

It's tough to win NFL Championships.

Ask the Patriots.

They won their Super Bowls because they had a great QB, a great coach, and a great defense. They needed all 3 to have their dynasty 10 years ago. Since? Brady has had a terrible postseason track record.

Did he suddenly become a terrible QB?

[tk13]

Because defense wins. I've always said that. I said weeks ago I'm worried about the Packers defense. The Lions might legitimately have a defense better equipped to win it all than the Packers do.

That's why I say pass rush might be just as important, if not more important, than QB. I do think it takes more than a QB. That's why we have these knockdown arguments like we had the other night about passing yards. The prevailing theory on this board is that QB is all that matters. I don't agree, and I think history proves it. Although the NFL is surely trying to push the game in another direction.