*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[Sure-Oz]

@jaysonst: Clubs that have spoken with #Tigers in last 24 hours say told they’re not selling. Could even look to add a starter, or reliever, or both.

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Salvador Perez OPS by year
2011 .834
2012 .799
2013 .756
2014 .692
2015 .691

Batting Avg
2011 .331
2012 .301
2013 .292
2014 .260
2015 .249

Still good production offensively for a catcher, that isn't the point, the trend is. If we are going to have him for future years, we NEED to rest him more. Have to have to. One of the reasons I was so against paying for a DH and rather doing it by committee to give Sal more time off. Yes, Kendrys is a big surprise but I hope we do this eventually. If we are still 8 games up in the end of August I'm going to be livid if Sal is still playing as often as he does. His batting average and OPS have gone down EVERY SINGLE YEAR. He needs freshlegs at the plate for our playoff push.

I won't argue against him getting regular off-days, especially if we maintain this lead, but the guy needs to stop swinging at such shitty pitches. I don't recall ever seeing someone take a strike down the middle, then hack at a ball that bounces in front of the plate, as much as he does. I don't know if getting worn down plays into it, but someone needs to teach him some discipline.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

In Moose's case, I believe the post-season success gave him the confidence that he was a major-league player. Last year, he was simply fighting to survive, including enjoying about 5 hours in Omaha when he was demoted, but then his slap-dick replacement was immediately injured.

Embracing a paradigm shift as big as Moose did coming into this year demands a level of confidence in just belonging. That's what I believe last October gave him.

Here are two triple slash lines for Moustakas:

.231/.259/.558

.233/.305/.493

If we are buying into the claim that his October line, which is the one above, made him more confident, then why didn't it happen in July? Is he only capable of gaining confidence in some successful months and not others?

[C3HIEF3S]

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz

@jaysonst: Clubs that have spoken with #Tigers in last 24 hours say told they’re not selling. Could even look to add a starter, or reliever, or both.

Beautiful.

[Hootie]

I'd like to know the baseball backgrounds of these people who think baseball players are just machines, have no emotions, and think confidence has nothing to do with results.

Yeah, I'm sure when Danny Duffy can't throw strikes at the mound it has nothing to do with the fact his confidence is shook out there.

I'd like to see Prison Bitch throw a baseball. I think after watching that, I could make some conclusions.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

I'd like to know the baseball backgrounds of these people who think baseball players are just machines, have no emotions, and think confidence has nothing to do with results.

Yeah, I'm sure when Danny Duffy can't throw strikes at the mound it has nothing to do with the fact his confidence is shook out there.

I'd like to see Prison Bitch throw a baseball. I think after watching that, I could make some conclusions.

I was watching Through the Wormhole with Morgan Freeman, and they basically did a study that found people absolutely performed better when they had confidence. It could be quantified and proved. There was a few different examples they did, but one of them was they gave one group just a regular putter and another group a putter that they claimed was Arnold Palmer's "lucky" putter. They were both the same exact putter though. Guess what group did significantly better?

[Pablo]

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

I won't argue against him getting regular off-days, especially if we maintain this lead, but the guy needs to stop swinging at such shitty pitches. I don't recall ever seeing someone take a strike down the middle, then hack at a ball that bounces in front of the plate, as much as he does. I don't know if getting worn down plays into it, but someone needs to teach him some discipline.

Nobody is going to teach him discipline at this point. He loves swinging at shitty pitches. That's his thing. He wants those low, ugly bastards he has to golf swing out.

[Hootie]

I also think it's hilarious that I just magically make all of these "wild" predictions that come true 9 times out of 10 about the Royals yet some Cardinals fan can try and tell me why I'm wrong or what I don't know about a team he doesn't watch because he reads fangraphs

ok bud

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by BWillie

I was watching Through the Wormhole with Morgan Freeman, and they basically did a study that found people absolutely performed better when they had confidence. It could be quantified and proved. There was a few different examples they did, but one of them was they gave one group just a regular putter and another group a putter that they claimed was Arnold Palmer's "lucky" putter. They were both the same exact putter though. Guess what group did significantly better?

dipshits mock people constantly for this, but whatever

I played baseball my entire life ... and I was a giant headcase at the plate ... I hit .370 in conference and made all conference as a sophomore. I was 1/3 of the baseball player I was as a senior, but I was just seeing the ball and my confidence was at an all-time high.

Senior year I hit .270 and started the season 0-25, was moved way down the lineup, was a huge ****ing head case the entire time, and just pressed, pressed and pressed more. It was terrible. I couldn't ****ing hit anything. And then I ended the season on a tear because I hit 1 HR on a windy day. Streakiest hitter alive. All in my head.

Of course it's different in the Major Leagues because these guys are hitting 95-100 ... so it's completely different then hitting 75-85.

but to try and pretend that confidence has NOTHING to do with hitting a baseball is the funniest ****ing thing I've ever heard in my life

and I'm sure the people telling me that are the ones that have probably never touched a 70 MPH fastball in their life (let alone 90+)

[Bufkin]

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz

@jaysonst: Clubs that have spoken with #Tigers in last 24 hours say told they’re not selling. Could even look to add a starter, or reliever, or both.

They're shooting for the best roster on MLB The Show, which in their defense, is already pretty stacked.

[DeezNutz]

**** it, the Royals should make a play for Kimbrel, and then trade a bullpen arm in the off-season.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

dipshits mock people constantly for this, but whatever

I played baseball my entire life ... and I was a giant headcase at the plate ... I hit .370 in conference and made all conference as a sophomore. I was 1/3 of the baseball player I was as a senior, but I was just seeing the ball and my confidence was at an all-time high.

Senior year I hit .270 and started the season 0-25, was moved way down the lineup, was a huge ****ing head case the entire time, and just pressed, pressed and pressed more. It was terrible. I couldn't ****ing hit anything. And then I ended the season on a tear because I hit 1 HR on a windy day. Streakiest hitter alive. All in my head.

Of course it's different in the Major Leagues because these guys are hitting 95-100 ... so it's completely different then hitting 75-85.

but to try and pretend that confidence has NOTHING to do with hitting a baseball is the funniest ****ing thing I've ever heard in my life

and I'm sure the people telling me that are the ones that have probably never touched a 70 MPH fastball in their life (let alone 90+)

I agree for people like you and me. I don't know if most pros are "headcases" though, so confidence or lack thereof should be less of a factor.

I played golf in college and the only reason I wasn't better was I could not putt. I mean, not at all. I went through a streak in high school where I shot below par or a shot over par for about 2-3 months. Only difference was I was drilling putts, had confidence. It all had to do with my head. I hit the most greens on our team, but I would 3putt at least 2 or 3 times each 9 holes. Whenever I would be with friends on the course, after a few beers I drain everything in sight (but then I can't hit the ball from the intoxication) It had all to do with my mental approach. I was scared to miss, basically. I was so scared to miss I would just stub the short ones. My stroke was fine, it was looked at by golf professionals and video taped numerous times, but under pressure in golf, I would choke. Always did. Whatever "it" is, I don't have for golf.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

dipshits mock people constantly for this, but whatever

I played baseball my entire life ... and I was a giant headcase at the plate ... I hit .370 in conference and made all conference as a sophomore. I was 1/3 of the baseball player I was as a senior, but I was just seeing the ball and my confidence was at an all-time high.

Senior year I hit .270 and started the season 0-25, was moved way down the lineup, was a huge ****ing head case the entire time, and just pressed, pressed and pressed more. It was terrible. I couldn't ****ing hit anything. And then I ended the season on a tear because I hit 1 HR on a windy day. Streakiest hitter alive. All in my head.

Of course it's different in the Major Leagues because these guys are hitting 95-100 ... so it's completely different then hitting 75-85.

but to try and pretend that confidence has NOTHING to do with hitting a baseball is the funniest ****ing thing I've ever heard in my life

and I'm sure the people telling me that are the ones that have probably never touched a 70 MPH fastball in their life (let alone 90+)

I'd wager that the majority of us talking heads on here played High School Baseball and some of us even played at the collegiate level. Though not all of us are bat-shit crazy like you, Mr. Hootie.

[Raiderhater]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

In Moose's case, I believe the post-season success gave him the confidence that he was a major-league player. Last year, he was simply fighting to survive, including enjoying about 5 hours in Omaha when he was demoted, but then his slap-dick replacement was immediately injured.

Embracing a paradigm shift as big as Moose did coming into this year demands a level of confidence in just belonging. That's what I believe last October gave him.

OR, realizing that the team was finally a contender he decided he didn't want to be someone to drag it down and risk being demoted again and missing out on all of the fun. It may not have been confidence so much as fear.

[C3HIEF3S]

Originally Posted by Raiderhader

OR, realizing that the team was finally a contender he decided he didn't want to be someone to drag it down and risk being demoted again and missing out on all of the fun. It may not have been confidence so much as fear.

I bet the brief trip to Omaha was a bit of a wake up call for him to adjust/rework his plate approach. Going from the supreme, Major League lifestyle to travelling on busses would have to be a reality check for anyone with his talent.