Is a defensive 4-3 change coming to KC?

[arrwheader]

I saw this article from arrowhead addict. The guy had an interesting theory that KC might be thinking about switching to the 4-3 scheme based on some recent draft picks and other things. Thought it was worth discussing. What do you say experts? Any merit to what this guys saying?

Full article here:

https://arrowheadaddict.com/2018/10/...ges-andy-reid/

Does Brett Veach have a secret master plan to fix the defense?

Thomas Welte1 h ago
Has Brett Veach been planning on a long-term defensive overhaul for 2019 that includes a change at defensive coordinator?

Patrick Mahomes has taken the NFL by storm and made believers out of even his harshest critics, and the Kansas City Chiefs are widely considered to be Super Bowl contenders this season.

In the midst of the best start to a season a quarterback in a red and gold (and possibly any other color) uniform has ever had, there is a layer of anxiety from the Kansas City faithful. The offense is firing on all cylinders and has grabbed the attention of the media, but the defense leaves anyone who has followed the Chiefs with a gnawing sensation in their gut on game day.

The Kansas City Chiefs defense is bad. The Chiefs are currently last in the league in total defense. Even after a good showing against the Blake Bortles-led Jaguars, the Chiefs are still giving up nearly 20 yards more per game than the next worst defense, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

While many are drooling over Patrick Mahomes, there remains a great many of us who are sitting at home having flashbacks to 2003, or to the 2013 wild card playoff games against the Colts, or the infamous no punt game. There is no shortage of victories squandered away by subpar defensive units in Kansas City Chiefs history.

Is it possible though that general manager Brett Veach has a secret master plan to fix the maligned unit? Or is the young shot caller for the Chiefs in over his head? Let’s take a look.

I am an avid podcast listener and have to drive a lot for my work. This combination leaves me with plenty of time to dive into a collection of true crime stories and conspiracy theory breakdowns. It was on a particularly long drive back in May, just a few weeks after the NFL draft, that I began to ponder what on earth the Chiefs were doing to their defense. This is when I started to form my own conspiracy theory about the Chiefs and the plan they have for their defense.

The Chiefs traded Marcus Peters this offseason. That move has been discussed ad nauseum, but it is worth mentioning simply because it made (and still makes) very little sense. They brought in Anthony Hitchens who had spent the past year playing inside for Dallas in their 4-3 defense. Then the draft came.

The Chiefs selected Breeland Speaks and announced him as a linebacker, an edge defender. Breeland Speaks is 283 pounds and ran a 4.87, oversized for a linebacker and not possessing the speed you want when dropping a guy into coverage. Their next selection was Derrick Nnadi who was a run stuffing nose tackle, but a bit undersized for a traditional 0 tech nose. Next came Dorian O’Daniel, an undersized but athletic linebacker from Clemson.

What do all of these players have in common? None of them are limited to, or traditional fits, in a base 3-4 defense. I watched a lot of tape on Speaks after the Chiefs drafted him, and Ole Miss played him all over the field. In my opinion, Speaks looked like a prototypical base (left) defensive end in a 4-3. Derrick Nnadi is a natural 1 tech, lining up between the center and guard and defending the run. Dorian O’Daniel makes sense as a weak side linebacker.

So here it is, my thought out theory: Brett Veach is stocking the Chiefs with defenders to make the switch to a base 4-3 defense in 2019.

As of this writing, 7 of the top 10 defenses in the NFL run a 4-3 base defense. I will add that caveat that in today’s NFL the gap between defensive philosophies is narrowing, and no team plays out of only one formation.

That said, as the rules have changed to create a cushion around the quarterback and wide receivers the league defenses are moving away from heavy press man schemes that rely on jarring the quarterback with a pass rush. That is not to say that teams are straying away from pass rushers, but instead they are focusing on using athletic linebackers and safeties to create disequilibrium in the short to intermediate parts of the field, a defensive line to apply pressure, and corners who are aiming to not give up the big play.

This defensive evolution appears to be a marriage of concepts from the Tampa 2 defensive philosophy and the Seattle Seahawks Legion of Boom philosophy. Looking at the Philadelphia Eagles defensive lineup may help you visualize the concepts.

Andy Reid ran a 4-3 defense in Philadelphia, but inherited a 3-4 team in Kansas City. Reid brought in Bob Sutton who, despite the teams recent struggles, did an excellent job of coaching in his beginning years in Kansas City. Things have changed drastically since then and I firmly believe Sutton will retire this offseason. This opens the door for the Chiefs to make a change on defense since, as their defense sits right now, they are not married to any particular defensive philosophy. They have several players who could play in either scheme.

So who could the Chiefs bring in to coordinate a new defense? Let’s look at some options.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

I don't know. The Cowboys had a top 10 rushing defense with Hitchens at MLB in a 4-3. And in fact, the #1 rushing defense in 2016.

Ragland is absolutely killing us. If Jones and Nnadi can plug the middle in a 4-3 I think the run defense could actually improve.

^^^

[O.city]

The Chiefs don't really play a 34 or 43 now. It's so much subpackage and odd fronts I don't know that it really matters.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by bobbything

That said, Sutton seems to be using Ford/Houston better this year than he had in the past. I don't know the %'s but would be interested in seeing how often those guys are in pass coverage this year vs. previous seasons.

They're in pass coverage all the time. The defense hasn't changed at all. They're making plays. Plain and simple.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by bobbything

Anything that keeps Houston and Ford from pass coverage is good by me. Neither of them belong anywhere other than on the line. Ford does suck against the run but, as mentioned, nobody seems to want to stick with the run against us anyway.

Having two pure pass rushers, plus Jones, would make the 4-man front pretty good. Just need a decent MLB. That seems easier than trying to convert a bunch of guys into things that they're not.

That said, Sutton seems to be using Ford/Houston better this year than he had in the past. I don't know the %'s but would be interested in seeing how often those guys are in pass coverage this year vs. previous seasons.

So long as both guys are on the field, NOTHING will keep them out of pass coverage short of sending 5 each time short of making them your 4-3 DEs.

That's why I hate that gripe. Anytime you send 4 guys, you gotta make a choice and put one of those guys out in the pattern.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by bobbything

I didn't realize Hitchens was MLB in Dallas. If that's the case, I honestly don't understand what Sutton is doing with him. Houston/Ford on the edges, Jones at DT, and Hitchens at MLB. Seems like it could work.

Hitchens is playing ILB here. You can interchange MLB in a 4-3 with 3-4 ILB in most cases, especially because the league is moving to lighter and lighter linebackers, even in the middle of the defense.

The problem with our run defense:

1. Dee Ford is shit against the run
2. Reggie Ragland is shit in general
3. Our safeties are shit against the run
4. Nnadi needs a season to develop

I think a scheme change could be beneficial

[bobbything]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

They're in pass coverage all the time. The defense hasn't changed at all. They're making plays. Plain and simple.

You have the numbers? I'd love to see them.

[O.city]

Having all those guys just rush is how you get gashed vs the run. Jones already guesses enough as it is, leaving gaps open.

Now one could argue that in todays league getting run against doesn't really matter, but you've gotta play disciplined.

[bobbything]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

making them your 4-3 DEs.

Yeah, that's essentially what I was suggesting.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Hitchens is playing ILB here. You can interchange MLB in a 4-3 with 3-4 ILB in most cases, especially because the league is moving to lighter and lighter linebackers, even in the middle of the defense.

The problem with our run defense:

1. Dee Ford is shit against the run
2. Reggie Ragland is shit in general

I believe Hitchens is on the weak inside, which would mean he's essentially a 4-3 OUTSIDE LB. He played outside in college but inside in Dallas.

He's a good LB, just hasn't played well here for whatever reason.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by bobbything

You have the numbers? I'd love to see them.

I don't tally them. I'll wait for someone else to do that. I just watch the games.

[bobbything]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Hitchens is playing ILB here. You can interchange MLB in a 4-3 with 3-4 ILB in most cases

I guess if we are rushing 3 down linemen and a LB, that essentially moves Hitchens to MLB. Which means it's basically a 4-3 anyway in that case.

I just wonder how often we are doing it.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

Having all those guys just rush is how you get gashed vs the run. Jones already guesses enough as it is, leaving gaps open.

Now one could argue that in todays league getting run against doesn't really matter, but you've gotta play disciplined.

Those off-tackle plays are especially prone to getting beat, especially given Ford's ability (blessing/curse) to get upfield so fast. It's how teams used to deal with DT - they'd just run right underneath him as he exploded to the outside shoulder.

Houston's less easy to do that to because he's able to get into a body and disengage before starting his pass rush so he can deal with both. But then we get back to where we always get on this argument - Houston's simply better in coverage than Ford is.

Sutton has to play some guessing games to keep teams off-balance when it comes to how he's dealing with his OLB's, that's for damn sure. And if he's wrong, there's a play to be made there.

Again - I'm not a fair ask here because I'm a 4-3 proponent but the simplicity of the scheme and it's general repeatability makes it a better call for a team that's likely going to see a lot of defensive turnover in the near future due to contracts needed on the offensive side of the ball. It's less dynamic but it's also a hell of a lot less prone to simply misfiring and leaving gaps, IMO.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Those off-tackle plays are especially prone to getting beat, especially given Ford's ability (blessing/curse) to get upfield so fast. It's how teams used to deal with DT - they'd just run right underneath him as he exploded to the outside shoulder.

Houston's less easy to do that to because he's able to get into a body and disengage before starting his pass rush so he can deal with both. But then we get back to where we always get on this argument - Houston's simply better in coverage than Ford is.

Sutton has to play some guessing games to keep teams off-balance when it comes to how he's dealing with his OLB's, that's for damn sure. And if he's wrong, there's a play to be made there.

Again - I'm not a fair ask here because I'm a 4-3 proponent but the simplicity of the scheme and it's general repeatability makes it a better call for a team that's likely going to see a lot of defensive turnover in the near future due to contracts needed on the offensive side of the ball. It's less dynamic but it's also a hell of a lot less prone to simply misfiring and leaving gaps, IMO.

It's easier to draft for I think, and fill spots in.

I just don't think these days theres much damn difference. Teams aren't sitting in the base d very much anymore.

Look at the top D's in the league. They just have so much talent. I think that's the only way to slow down these offenses. Just stack your D with crazy talent everywhere and hope.

Essentially, good luck

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by bobbything

Yeah, that's essentially what I was suggesting.

I just don't think Ford has the mass for that. I could see an argument for a 4-3 with a base front of Houston - Williams/Nnadi - Jones - Bailey and Ford as your Will, but that's gonna have Ford in coverage quite a bit. If take Bailey out of there (who's played damn well) and move Ford down, you're going to have a serious lack of beef down low. Especially if O'Daniel is now your Will. You can't move Ford to the strong side because he would just get murdered over there. And all of that presumes that either guy can effectively make a transition back to end, which is a pretty massive assumption to make it its own right.

It just doesn't work. What Sutton's doing by mixing up who he sends is far more difficult to deal with, IMO.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by O.city

It's easier to draft for I think, and fill spots in.

I just don't think these days theres much damn difference. Teams aren't sitting in the base d very much anymore.

Look at the top D's in the league. They just have so much talent. I think that's the only way to slow down these offenses. Just stack your D with crazy talent everywhere and hope.

Essentially, good luck

Exactly right.