Football Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex S - Page 6

vailpass · 08-20-2018, 12:11 PM

Which one of you banged this guy's wife then wiped your dick on the curtains? Or was it Mahomes that he caught sneaking out the window?

Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex Smith Under Center

Here at SI Gambling, we are going to unveil our NFL betting experts’ win total previews for all 32 NFL teams. Make sure to check out all of them, as well as the rest of our gambling content, at si.com/gambling.

Chiefs 2018 win total: 8 (-160 over, +140 under)

Chiefs 2017 record: 10-6

Key offseason acquisitions: WR Sammy Watkins, CB David Amerson, CB Kendall Fuller, LB Anthony Hitchens, NT Xavier Williams, CB Orlando Scandrick, RB Damien Williams, QB Chad Henne

Key offseason losses: QB Alex Smith, CB Marcus Peters, LB Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson, CB Terrance Mitchell, CB Phillip Gaines, DT Bennie Logan, WR Albert Wilson, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, OL Zach Fulton, LB Ramik Wilson, OC Matt Nagy

Five things to keep in mind before betting the Chiefs' win total

1. Patrick Mahomes certainly raises the Chiefs’ offensive ceiling, however he also can greatly lower the unit’s floor. Mahomes’s electric arm talent can make it easy to forget how important Alex Smith was to this team. Per Warren Sharp in his 2018 Football Preview (a read I highly recommend for all football fans), Smith’s 1.35% interception rate only trails Tom Brady’s 1.3%. Kansas City’s +31 turnover differential over the past two seasons led the NFL, with Baltimore’s +22 and Philadelphia’s +17 ranking second and third respectively. That is a rather wide margin. Turnovers obviously play a huge role in a team’s success, but ending a contest without giving the ball away was especially imperative for the Chiefs.

During Smith’s entire time in K.C., the team won 77.6% of its games (38-11 record) in the regular season when he didn’t throw an interception. That number dropped to 44.4% (12-15 record) when he was picked off at least once. Mahomes will deliver more deep strikes through the air, but he will also be responsible for more negative plays, and that could end up being a major setback for this unit.

2. Another key for the Chiefs with Smith at the helm was setting the defense up for the best possible chance for success—although the defense didn’t take advantage last season (we’ll address that later). Per Football Outsiders, the average Chiefs opponent starting field position in 2017 was the 25.49-yard line, the third-best mark in that metric. That was largely due to three factors: Kansas City didn’t turn the ball over (a league-low 11 turnovers), the Chiefs averaged 34.7 yards per drive (sixth-best) and the team’s kickers did not miss many field goals to help out the opposition’s field position (41-45 on FGs, and only one miss from 50+ yards). Kansas City’s drives also lasted an average of 2:52, the eighth-longest time in the NFL.

With Mahomes as the signal-caller, there will be more explosive plays, meaning a likelier chance of drives taking up less clock. His higher turnover rate will also flip the field in the opponents’ favor more often than the Chiefs have been accustomed to in recent seasons. Having this version of Kansas City’s defense on with a shorter field to defend and on for a longer period of time is a recipe for disaster.

3. On the defensive side of the ball last year, the Chiefs weren’t just bad. They were flat-out abysmal. The unit ranked 30th in defensive efficiency. Losing safety Eric Berry to a ruptured Achilles in the first game of the season was a killer, yet Kansas City allowed a league-high 192.1 yards per game to wide receivers—including a whopping 90.3 YPG to opposing No. 1 wideouts (the next-worst mark was the Jets at 82.8 YPG)—and that falls on the cornerbacks. Acquiring Kendall Fuller from the Redskins in the Smith trade will be a significant boost in the slot. However the team’s coverage on the outside will be a glaring question mark, especially after dealing ball-hawking corner Marcus Peters to the Rams.

This unit will be relying on a 29-year-old safety in Berry with two major injuries already in his past and a 29-year-old pass rusher in Justin Houston who has missed 16 games in the past three seasons. The Chiefs will need those two to be a beacon of health this campaign for any hope of even a league-average defense.

4. The Chiefs have big-time weapons on offense, headlined by Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and offseason acquisition Sammy Watkins. But don’t underestimate the impact of Matt Nagy leaving to be the Bears head coach and replacing him with a first-time NFL offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy. Kansas City was fortunate that going from Doug Pederson to Nagy as OC in 2016 was a seamless transition, but will there be a smooth change this time?

Bieniemy was Kansas City’s running backs coach from 2013-17, but his only experience as offensive coordinator was for the University of Colorado, his alma mater, in 2011 and 2012. Colorado’s offense finished 92nd in yards per game and 109th in scoring in 2011, and fell to 119th in YPG and 120th in scoring the following year.

5. It doesn’t get much tougher than Kansas City’s opening stretch: at Chargers, at Steelers, vs. 49ers, at Broncos, vs. Jaguars, at Patriots. Its final six games isn’t a cakewalk either: at Rams, bye, at Raiders, vs. Ravens, vs. Chargers, at Seahawks, vs. Raiders. Going from playing the AFC East and a weaker-than-usual NFC East last season to the AFC North and NFC West, playing a first-place AFC schedule and residing in the AFC West doesn’t give the Chiefs many opportunities for easy wins.

PICK: UNDER 8 Wins

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/08/18/ch...ver-under-odds

Best22 · 08-21-2018, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Detoxing

The fans won't miss Alex Smith. But he has some valid points about the way this team operated and won under Alex, and how it will look quite a bit different under Mahomes.

Well that style didn't translate to championships, so a new style needs to be forged

Pablo · 08-21-2018, 10:16 AM

Chiefs bettors realize that for the first time in five years they can confidently take the over.

PmCakes · 08-21-2018, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beef Supreme

Even if we take a step back this year, which is entirely possible, I won't be missing Alex Smith under center.

Short term pain for long term gain

SuperBowl4 · 08-21-2018, 10:26 AM

All the Alex lovers must watch the GIANTS game last season. This is all you need to know about Alex Smith. Washington traded for Alex Smith? Didn't they watch the film that their divisional rivals did on AS?

lcarus · 08-21-2018, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NJChiefsFan

Personally I'd feel like we gave up too early if we settled for 6-8.

I think he meant 6-8 wins/7-9 losses.

PmCakes · 08-21-2018, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperBowl4

All the Alex lovers must watch the GIANTS game last season. This is all you need to know about Alex Smith. Washington traded for Alex Smith? Didn't they watch the film that their divisional rivals did on AS?

Washington's locker room is already in love with Alex Smith from what I've been seeing on ESPN with training camp reports. I don't know why we need to question that trade since we benefitted from it and the Skins are probably upgrading for a guy who has a larger skill set than Cousins. As a PMII fan I'm going to try to praise my guy without slighting the previous signal caller.

milkman · 08-21-2018, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PmCakes

Washington's locker room is already in love with Alex Smith from what I've been seeing on ESPN with training camp reports. I don't know why we need to question that trade since we benefitted from it and the Skins are probably upgrading for a guy who has a larger skill set than Cousins. As a PMII fan I'm going to try to praise my guy without slighting the previous signal caller.

Greg Cosell of NFL films told Colin Cowherd a couple weeks ago that Alex Smith is a downgrade from Cousins.

Just confirmation for me, but apparently news to you.

Fish · 08-21-2018, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PmCakes

Washington's locker room is already in love with Alex Smith from what I've been seeing on ESPN with training camp reports. I don't know why we need to question that trade since we benefitted from it and the Skins are probably upgrading for a guy who has a larger skill set than Cousins. As a PMII fan I'm going to try to praise my guy without slighting the previous signal caller.

... crackhead......

vailpass · 08-21-2018, 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PmCakes

Washington's locker room is already in love with Alex Smith from what I've been seeing on ESPN with training camp reports. I don't know why we need to question that trade since we benefitted from it and the Skins are probably upgrading for a guy who has a larger skill set than Cousins. As a PMII fan I'm going to try to praise my guy without slighting the previous signal caller.

Alrighty then...

iDeaL · 08-21-2018, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperBowl4

All the Alex lovers must watch the GIANTS game last season. This is all you need to know about Alex Smith. Washington traded for Alex Smith? Didn't they watch the film that their divisional rivals did on AS?

I was at the game and it was ****ing excruciating. I started shouting that they needed to put Mahomes in. I don't think Andy heard me tho. It was at that moment I knew that even if we did right the ship and sneak into the playoffs it was one and done. Lost cause.

At one point I made comment about how bad Eli Manning is and a nearby Giants fan responded with something like "Bet you'd rather have him than Smith." I said you're absolutely right fella.

OrtonsPiercedTaint · 08-21-2018, 02:55 PM

Like Deion, Alex makes business decisions. Sanders didn't tackle, Smith plays it safe. Safe straight to the bank

Couch-Potato · 08-21-2018, 08:55 PM

Still feels like we could have gotten more for both Alex and Marcus...

CasselGotPeedOn · 08-21-2018, 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King_Chief_Fan

Tyreek made Mahomes look good there.
Circle around the defense and catch.
No one else on the team makes that catch.
I will give PM credit to throw one to a guy he knows can make the catch

You're a moron

PmCakes · 08-21-2018, 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fish

... crackhead......

Quote:

Originally Posted by vailpass

Alrighty then...

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman

Greg Cosell of NFL films told Colin Cowherd a couple weeks ago that Alex Smith is a downgrade from Cousins.

Just confirmation for me, but apparently news to you.

Milkman: Goole search will find Charley Casserley has been raving about Smith (guy with bigger credentials than Cosell)
http://www.nfl.com/videos/up-to-the-...Cousins-in-D-C

“But, you can just tell by the three days, four days we’ve been on the field, how much the playbook has grown. Because his, you know, he’s just not a thrower, he can run, you have to respect his run. We got a little bit of option stuff coming in and stuff like that. It helps us all out as an offense and as a defense because the [Philadelphia] Eagles run similar plays with Carson Wentz and so they get a guy on our team that they see that every day. So, you know the qualities that he brings as a man and as a football player are zero-to-none. He’s a great person, great personality, great leader… and we love him.” - Morgan Moses

“One thing about Alex, he is the smartest guy I have ever been around, without a doubt, and he is in great shape,” coach Jay Gruden said. “He can move around and he can handle a lot of different things.”

--

I find it amusing that people here actually think Cousins has a larger skillset than Smith when Gruden and the players have been raving about how they can actually open up the play book now in Washington

Priest31kc · 08-21-2018, 09:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PmCakes

Milkman: Goole search will find Charley Casserley has been raving about Smith (guy with bigger credentials than Cosell)
http://www.nfl.com/videos/up-to-the-...Cousins-in-D-C

“But, you can just tell by the three days, four days we’ve been on the field, how much the playbook has grown. Because his, you know, he’s just not a thrower, he can run, you have to respect his run. We got a little bit of option stuff coming in and stuff like that. It helps us all out as an offense and as a defense because the [Philadelphia] Eagles run similar plays with Carson Wentz and so they get a guy on our team that they see that every day. So, you know the qualities that he brings as a man and as a football player are zero-to-none. He’s a great person, great personality, great leader… and we love him.” - Morgan Moses

“One thing about Alex, he is the smartest guy I have ever been around, without a doubt, and he is in great shape,” coach Jay Gruden said. “He can move around and he can handle a lot of different things.”

--

I find it amusing that people here actually think Cousins has a larger skillset than Smith when Gruden and the players have been raving about how they can actually open up the play book now in Washington

Why does Pmcakes appear to be an Alexsexual in disguise? Is it just me?

08-20-2018, 12:11 PM
vailpass Psycho Bag Of Squanch Join Date: Sep 2001 Casino cash: $9594244	Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex S Which one of you banged this guy's wife then wiped your dick on the curtains? Or was it Mahomes that he caught sneaking out the window? Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex Smith Under Center Here at SI Gambling, we are going to unveil our NFL betting experts’ win total previews for all 32 NFL teams. Make sure to check out all of them, as well as the rest of our gambling content, at si.com/gambling. Chiefs 2018 win total: 8 (-160 over, +140 under) Chiefs 2017 record: 10-6 Key offseason acquisitions: WR Sammy Watkins, CB David Amerson, CB Kendall Fuller, LB Anthony Hitchens, NT Xavier Williams, CB Orlando Scandrick, RB Damien Williams, QB Chad Henne Key offseason losses: QB Alex Smith, CB Marcus Peters, LB Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson, CB Terrance Mitchell, CB Phillip Gaines, DT Bennie Logan, WR Albert Wilson, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, OL Zach Fulton, LB Ramik Wilson, OC Matt Nagy Five things to keep in mind before betting the Chiefs' win total 1. Patrick Mahomes certainly raises the Chiefs’ offensive ceiling, however he also can greatly lower the unit’s floor. Mahomes’s electric arm talent can make it easy to forget how important Alex Smith was to this team. Per Warren Sharp in his 2018 Football Preview (a read I highly recommend for all football fans), Smith’s 1.35% interception rate only trails Tom Brady’s 1.3%. Kansas City’s +31 turnover differential over the past two seasons led the NFL, with Baltimore’s +22 and Philadelphia’s +17 ranking second and third respectively. That is a rather wide margin. Turnovers obviously play a huge role in a team’s success, but ending a contest without giving the ball away was especially imperative for the Chiefs. During Smith’s entire time in K.C., the team won 77.6% of its games (38-11 record) in the regular season when he didn’t throw an interception. That number dropped to 44.4% (12-15 record) when he was picked off at least once. Mahomes will deliver more deep strikes through the air, but he will also be responsible for more negative plays, and that could end up being a major setback for this unit. 2. Another key for the Chiefs with Smith at the helm was setting the defense up for the best possible chance for success—although the defense didn’t take advantage last season (we’ll address that later). Per Football Outsiders, the average Chiefs opponent starting field position in 2017 was the 25.49-yard line, the third-best mark in that metric. That was largely due to three factors: Kansas City didn’t turn the ball over (a league-low 11 turnovers), the Chiefs averaged 34.7 yards per drive (sixth-best) and the team’s kickers did not miss many field goals to help out the opposition’s field position (41-45 on FGs, and only one miss from 50+ yards). Kansas City’s drives also lasted an average of 2:52, the eighth-longest time in the NFL. With Mahomes as the signal-caller, there will be more explosive plays, meaning a likelier chance of drives taking up less clock. His higher turnover rate will also flip the field in the opponents’ favor more often than the Chiefs have been accustomed to in recent seasons. Having this version of Kansas City’s defense on with a shorter field to defend and on for a longer period of time is a recipe for disaster. 3. On the defensive side of the ball last year, the Chiefs weren’t just bad. They were flat-out abysmal. The unit ranked 30th in defensive efficiency. Losing safety Eric Berry to a ruptured Achilles in the first game of the season was a killer, yet Kansas City allowed a league-high 192.1 yards per game to wide receivers—including a whopping 90.3 YPG to opposing No. 1 wideouts (the next-worst mark was the Jets at 82.8 YPG)—and that falls on the cornerbacks. Acquiring Kendall Fuller from the Redskins in the Smith trade will be a significant boost in the slot. However the team’s coverage on the outside will be a glaring question mark, especially after dealing ball-hawking corner Marcus Peters to the Rams. This unit will be relying on a 29-year-old safety in Berry with two major injuries already in his past and a 29-year-old pass rusher in Justin Houston who has missed 16 games in the past three seasons. The Chiefs will need those two to be a beacon of health this campaign for any hope of even a league-average defense. 4. The Chiefs have big-time weapons on offense, headlined by Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and offseason acquisition Sammy Watkins. But don’t underestimate the impact of Matt Nagy leaving to be the Bears head coach and replacing him with a first-time NFL offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy. Kansas City was fortunate that going from Doug Pederson to Nagy as OC in 2016 was a seamless transition, but will there be a smooth change this time? Bieniemy was Kansas City’s running backs coach from 2013-17, but his only experience as offensive coordinator was for the University of Colorado, his alma mater, in 2011 and 2012. Colorado’s offense finished 92nd in yards per game and 109th in scoring in 2011, and fell to 119th in YPG and 120th in scoring the following year. 5. It doesn’t get much tougher than Kansas City’s opening stretch: at Chargers, at Steelers, vs. 49ers, at Broncos, vs. Jaguars, at Patriots. Its final six games isn’t a cakewalk either: at Rams, bye, at Raiders, vs. Ravens, vs. Chargers, at Seahawks, vs. Raiders. Going from playing the AFC East and a weaker-than-usual NFC East last season to the AFC North and NFC West, playing a first-place AFC schedule and residing in the AFC West doesn’t give the Chiefs many opportunities for easy wins. PICK: UNDER 8 Wins https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/08/18/ch...ver-under-odds
Posts: 69,591

08-21-2018, 10:16 AM	#77
Pablo Ultrabanned Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: KCMO Casino cash: $2009356	Chiefs bettors realize that for the first time in five years they can confidently take the over.
Posts: 40,315

08-21-2018, 10:26 AM	#79
SuperBowl4 MVP Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: HERMOSA BEACH,CA Casino cash: $8034900	All the Alex lovers must watch the GIANTS game last season. This is all you need to know about Alex Smith. Washington traded for Alex Smith? Didn't they watch the film that their divisional rivals did on AS?
Posts: 13,560

08-21-2018, 02:55 PM	#86
OrtonsPiercedTaint MVP Join Date: Dec 2012 Casino cash: $10004980	Like Deion, Alex makes business decisions. Sanders didn't tackle, Smith plays it safe. Safe straight to the bank
Posts: 5,994

08-21-2018, 08:55 PM	#87
Couch-Potato MVP Join Date: Jan 2015 Casino cash: $3243065	Still feels like we could have gotten more for both Alex and Marcus...
Posts: 6,105