Is a defensive 4-3 change coming to KC?

[arrwheader]

I saw this article from arrowhead addict. The guy had an interesting theory that KC might be thinking about switching to the 4-3 scheme based on some recent draft picks and other things. Thought it was worth discussing. What do you say experts? Any merit to what this guys saying?

Full article here:

https://arrowheadaddict.com/2018/10/...ges-andy-reid/

Does Brett Veach have a secret master plan to fix the defense?

Thomas Welte1 h ago
Has Brett Veach been planning on a long-term defensive overhaul for 2019 that includes a change at defensive coordinator?

Patrick Mahomes has taken the NFL by storm and made believers out of even his harshest critics, and the Kansas City Chiefs are widely considered to be Super Bowl contenders this season.

In the midst of the best start to a season a quarterback in a red and gold (and possibly any other color) uniform has ever had, there is a layer of anxiety from the Kansas City faithful. The offense is firing on all cylinders and has grabbed the attention of the media, but the defense leaves anyone who has followed the Chiefs with a gnawing sensation in their gut on game day.

The Kansas City Chiefs defense is bad. The Chiefs are currently last in the league in total defense. Even after a good showing against the Blake Bortles-led Jaguars, the Chiefs are still giving up nearly 20 yards more per game than the next worst defense, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

While many are drooling over Patrick Mahomes, there remains a great many of us who are sitting at home having flashbacks to 2003, or to the 2013 wild card playoff games against the Colts, or the infamous no punt game. There is no shortage of victories squandered away by subpar defensive units in Kansas City Chiefs history.

Is it possible though that general manager Brett Veach has a secret master plan to fix the maligned unit? Or is the young shot caller for the Chiefs in over his head? Let’s take a look.

I am an avid podcast listener and have to drive a lot for my work. This combination leaves me with plenty of time to dive into a collection of true crime stories and conspiracy theory breakdowns. It was on a particularly long drive back in May, just a few weeks after the NFL draft, that I began to ponder what on earth the Chiefs were doing to their defense. This is when I started to form my own conspiracy theory about the Chiefs and the plan they have for their defense.

The Chiefs traded Marcus Peters this offseason. That move has been discussed ad nauseum, but it is worth mentioning simply because it made (and still makes) very little sense. They brought in Anthony Hitchens who had spent the past year playing inside for Dallas in their 4-3 defense. Then the draft came.

The Chiefs selected Breeland Speaks and announced him as a linebacker, an edge defender. Breeland Speaks is 283 pounds and ran a 4.87, oversized for a linebacker and not possessing the speed you want when dropping a guy into coverage. Their next selection was Derrick Nnadi who was a run stuffing nose tackle, but a bit undersized for a traditional 0 tech nose. Next came Dorian O’Daniel, an undersized but athletic linebacker from Clemson.

What do all of these players have in common? None of them are limited to, or traditional fits, in a base 3-4 defense. I watched a lot of tape on Speaks after the Chiefs drafted him, and Ole Miss played him all over the field. In my opinion, Speaks looked like a prototypical base (left) defensive end in a 4-3. Derrick Nnadi is a natural 1 tech, lining up between the center and guard and defending the run. Dorian O’Daniel makes sense as a weak side linebacker.

So here it is, my thought out theory: Brett Veach is stocking the Chiefs with defenders to make the switch to a base 4-3 defense in 2019.

As of this writing, 7 of the top 10 defenses in the NFL run a 4-3 base defense. I will add that caveat that in today’s NFL the gap between defensive philosophies is narrowing, and no team plays out of only one formation.

That said, as the rules have changed to create a cushion around the quarterback and wide receivers the league defenses are moving away from heavy press man schemes that rely on jarring the quarterback with a pass rush. That is not to say that teams are straying away from pass rushers, but instead they are focusing on using athletic linebackers and safeties to create disequilibrium in the short to intermediate parts of the field, a defensive line to apply pressure, and corners who are aiming to not give up the big play.

This defensive evolution appears to be a marriage of concepts from the Tampa 2 defensive philosophy and the Seattle Seahawks Legion of Boom philosophy. Looking at the Philadelphia Eagles defensive lineup may help you visualize the concepts.

Andy Reid ran a 4-3 defense in Philadelphia, but inherited a 3-4 team in Kansas City. Reid brought in Bob Sutton who, despite the teams recent struggles, did an excellent job of coaching in his beginning years in Kansas City. Things have changed drastically since then and I firmly believe Sutton will retire this offseason. This opens the door for the Chiefs to make a change on defense since, as their defense sits right now, they are not married to any particular defensive philosophy. They have several players who could play in either scheme.

So who could the Chiefs bring in to coordinate a new defense? Let’s look at some options.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

yup. They need to get O'Daniel in there more. Niemann is listed as his backup and don't know how much speed he has.

Niemann is fast as ****. He ran a 4.6. I really want to see what he has in a real game.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Actually here's a weird idea...since Berry has absolutely lost a step at this point, maybe he could have a future playing a lot of downs as a coverage backer in our next defense. He's certainly tough enough to take on blocks.

Or...and here me out here....we cut the dude that can't play at a high level anymore because his foot hurts and we go get someone that actually plays that position.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The 4-2-5 is absolutely the next wave, IMO. I mean hell, it's just a fancy way of saying "Nickel" as your base, but I think that's what we'll see. The problem becomes finding the 2 LBs that can slot into those roles. You essentially need a guy like Bobby Wagner that can do anything.

Peak Daryl Washington is essentially the prototype LB in a true 4-2-5, IMO. There just aren't too many of those guys out there...

YET.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

I don't recall who i was listening to, but they were on the radio discussing 2018 NFL offensive trends and that they believed you're going to see a fundamental shift back to the 43 because the 43 was better equipped to handle today's offenses.

Iirc, the reason is that in the 34, you essentially have 3 big bodies that generally don't serve well as pass rushers. Today you're seeing NFL defenses in the Nickel+ formations, which takes those big bodies off the field.

Also, zone is far more effective against today's offenses. Teams generally don't rush more than 4, so being able to get pressure from 4 is much more important. Teams are also using LB's far less in coverage and instead relying on multiple safeties and corners, as LB's generally end up in a mis-match when in coverage.

Everything is trending towards smaller, faster bodies in the front 7 and the ability to get pressure without blitzing.

The problem is NFL teams can move guys around and just punish you if you're one dimensional.

I think the ILB spot is about to be way more valuable than the past 10 years.

If you can have 2 guys in there that can play all 3 downs and run, Kuechly, Bowman in his prime etc, you can do it all.

[O.city]

The Buchannon trade would make sense if that's what you're trying to do.

[saphojunkie]

I was saying this back in April.

Originally Posted by saphojunkie

I wonder if they are willing to do a conversion. Speaks makes more sense a s a 4-3 DE.


LDE: Ford/Speaks
DT: Jones
DT: Nnadi
RDE : Houston/Kpass

ROLB: Hitchens
MLB: Ragland
LOLB: Nieman

LCB: Nelson
RCB: Fuller
SS: Berry
FS: Parker

When you go to nickel, you take Ragland off, bring Scandrick in, and move Fuller to the slot. All of this, obviously, changes after half these guys are replaced in the offseason.

[WhiteWhale]

It would at least explain the 290 pound outside linebackers.

[Shoes]

The 4-3/3-4 conversation I don't think is as big of a deal as it used to be. The NFL is dominated by sub packages and the most valuable defensive players tend to be guys who can stay on the field and be successful against multiple personnel. The "base" defense that I am more interested in is who is on the field against 3 WR sets (most commonly used personnel package by offenses these days).

That's why I am so high on a guy like O'Daniel- should be a defender who isn't overwhelmed against the run in 3 WR sets, but matches up well against RB's and TE's.

[Molitoth]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Or...and here me out here....we cut the dude that can't play at a high level anymore because his foot hurts and we go get someone that actually plays that position.

lol. This.

How about we Don't depend on Eric Berry anymore.

[oldman]

I think if we go to more of a hybrid, Hitchens makes more sense than Ragland. I don't see any problem having Kpass as a down lineman (sort of) with Nnadi and Jones on the inside and rotate Speaks and Houston. That way we can get rid of Ford. Sure, Ford is having a good season, but don't they all in a contract year. He's injured way too much. to tie up a lot of money in him. Explain to me how he got hurt enough to be iffy before he got tossed last week. We have to start getting more snaps for O'D and Niemann as well.

[bowener]

I think NFL defenses are going to shift toward a 4-2-5 defense. We will probably see all D-Line personnel weighing 300+ and specialize in stuffing the run. ILBs are going to become the premium position going forward. NFL offenses have everything stacked in their favor and the college spread is here to stay.

This article does make a lot of sense and I can easily see us going with a 4 front and using Houston and Speaks as our pass rushing end that will be rotated often to keep them fresh. Ford is gone after this season if that happens. I’d love to see somebody similar to Jabrill Peppers added to our secondary/LB Corp too. That hybrid position is going to become very popular.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Niemann is fast as ****. He ran a 4.6. I really want to see what he has in a real game.

Well we know he is smart so he should start getting more reps then over Ragland. **** that guy.

[ChiefsFanatic]

If anyone has had the unfortunate mishap of reading one of my posts, you know that I hate Bob Sutton. I think he is too rigid in his scheme, and doesn't put players in a position to succeed by scheming to their strengths.

But, having said that, it doesn't matter what defense we run, 3-4 or a 4-3, because our linebackers, outside of Ford, are just too damn slow.

Not that Sutton could put fast linebackers in a position to succeed, but at least fast linebackers could potentially negate Sutton's suckyness.

Sent from my LG-H932 using Tapatalk

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by ChiefsFanatic

If anyone has had the unfortunate mishap of reading one of my posts, you know that I hate Bob Sutton. I think he is too rigid in his scheme, and doesn't put players in a position to succeed by scheming to their strengths.

But, having said that, it doesn't matter what defense we run, 3-4 or a 4-3, because our linebackers, outside of Ford, are just too damn slow.

Not that Sutton could put fast linebackers in a position to succeed, but at least fast linebackers could potentially negate Sutton's suckyness.

Sent from my LG-H932 using Tapatalk

Yeah I mean it’s not like he fielded top 5 defenses two years in a row or anything when Houston and DJ were both healthy.

[OKchiefs]

I don't think it matters what we do. This draft class was so bad, Hitchens has been a bust of a signing, and our highest paid defensive players are all broken and/or will be leaving soon. There are very few building blocks on defense. The defense will likely be just as bad if not worse in 2019.