Football Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex S

vailpass · 08-20-2018, 12:11 PM

Which one of you banged this guy's wife then wiped your dick on the curtains? Or was it Mahomes that he caught sneaking out the window?

Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex Smith Under Center

Here at SI Gambling, we are going to unveil our NFL betting experts’ win total previews for all 32 NFL teams. Make sure to check out all of them, as well as the rest of our gambling content, at si.com/gambling.

Chiefs 2018 win total: 8 (-160 over, +140 under)

Chiefs 2017 record: 10-6

Key offseason acquisitions: WR Sammy Watkins, CB David Amerson, CB Kendall Fuller, LB Anthony Hitchens, NT Xavier Williams, CB Orlando Scandrick, RB Damien Williams, QB Chad Henne

Key offseason losses: QB Alex Smith, CB Marcus Peters, LB Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson, CB Terrance Mitchell, CB Phillip Gaines, DT Bennie Logan, WR Albert Wilson, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, OL Zach Fulton, LB Ramik Wilson, OC Matt Nagy

Five things to keep in mind before betting the Chiefs' win total

1. Patrick Mahomes certainly raises the Chiefs’ offensive ceiling, however he also can greatly lower the unit’s floor. Mahomes’s electric arm talent can make it easy to forget how important Alex Smith was to this team. Per Warren Sharp in his 2018 Football Preview (a read I highly recommend for all football fans), Smith’s 1.35% interception rate only trails Tom Brady’s 1.3%. Kansas City’s +31 turnover differential over the past two seasons led the NFL, with Baltimore’s +22 and Philadelphia’s +17 ranking second and third respectively. That is a rather wide margin. Turnovers obviously play a huge role in a team’s success, but ending a contest without giving the ball away was especially imperative for the Chiefs.

During Smith’s entire time in K.C., the team won 77.6% of its games (38-11 record) in the regular season when he didn’t throw an interception. That number dropped to 44.4% (12-15 record) when he was picked off at least once. Mahomes will deliver more deep strikes through the air, but he will also be responsible for more negative plays, and that could end up being a major setback for this unit.

2. Another key for the Chiefs with Smith at the helm was setting the defense up for the best possible chance for success—although the defense didn’t take advantage last season (we’ll address that later). Per Football Outsiders, the average Chiefs opponent starting field position in 2017 was the 25.49-yard line, the third-best mark in that metric. That was largely due to three factors: Kansas City didn’t turn the ball over (a league-low 11 turnovers), the Chiefs averaged 34.7 yards per drive (sixth-best) and the team’s kickers did not miss many field goals to help out the opposition’s field position (41-45 on FGs, and only one miss from 50+ yards). Kansas City’s drives also lasted an average of 2:52, the eighth-longest time in the NFL.

With Mahomes as the signal-caller, there will be more explosive plays, meaning a likelier chance of drives taking up less clock. His higher turnover rate will also flip the field in the opponents’ favor more often than the Chiefs have been accustomed to in recent seasons. Having this version of Kansas City’s defense on with a shorter field to defend and on for a longer period of time is a recipe for disaster.

3. On the defensive side of the ball last year, the Chiefs weren’t just bad. They were flat-out abysmal. The unit ranked 30th in defensive efficiency. Losing safety Eric Berry to a ruptured Achilles in the first game of the season was a killer, yet Kansas City allowed a league-high 192.1 yards per game to wide receivers—including a whopping 90.3 YPG to opposing No. 1 wideouts (the next-worst mark was the Jets at 82.8 YPG)—and that falls on the cornerbacks. Acquiring Kendall Fuller from the Redskins in the Smith trade will be a significant boost in the slot. However the team’s coverage on the outside will be a glaring question mark, especially after dealing ball-hawking corner Marcus Peters to the Rams.

This unit will be relying on a 29-year-old safety in Berry with two major injuries already in his past and a 29-year-old pass rusher in Justin Houston who has missed 16 games in the past three seasons. The Chiefs will need those two to be a beacon of health this campaign for any hope of even a league-average defense.

4. The Chiefs have big-time weapons on offense, headlined by Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and offseason acquisition Sammy Watkins. But don’t underestimate the impact of Matt Nagy leaving to be the Bears head coach and replacing him with a first-time NFL offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy. Kansas City was fortunate that going from Doug Pederson to Nagy as OC in 2016 was a seamless transition, but will there be a smooth change this time?

Bieniemy was Kansas City’s running backs coach from 2013-17, but his only experience as offensive coordinator was for the University of Colorado, his alma mater, in 2011 and 2012. Colorado’s offense finished 92nd in yards per game and 109th in scoring in 2011, and fell to 119th in YPG and 120th in scoring the following year.

5. It doesn’t get much tougher than Kansas City’s opening stretch: at Chargers, at Steelers, vs. 49ers, at Broncos, vs. Jaguars, at Patriots. Its final six games isn’t a cakewalk either: at Rams, bye, at Raiders, vs. Ravens, vs. Chargers, at Seahawks, vs. Raiders. Going from playing the AFC East and a weaker-than-usual NFC East last season to the AFC North and NFC West, playing a first-place AFC schedule and residing in the AFC West doesn’t give the Chiefs many opportunities for easy wins.

PICK: UNDER 8 Wins

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/08/18/ch...ver-under-odds

Dinny Bossa Nova · 08-20-2018, 12:19 PM

Some people shouldn't drink.

Dinny

Fish · 08-20-2018, 12:20 PM

**Rausch** · 08-20-2018, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fish

Bookmarked and cap'd...

Edit: also rhep'd. It only seems fair...

In58men · 08-20-2018, 12:20 PM

Sure gonna miss those check downs and knowing we lost when down by 24 pts

JoeyChuckles · 08-20-2018, 12:29 PM

It all sounds about right to me.

Mahomes may do great this year, but I doubt he will be the 4th best QB in the league statistically like Smith was last year. The defense will most likely still be bottom 10 with Sutton still here.

7-9 this year sounds perfectly feasible, and I'd be totally okay with that if Mahomes gets experience and we build towards 2019 and 2020.

bigjosh · 08-20-2018, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by In58men

Sure gonna miss those check downs and knowing we lost when down by 4 pts

Fyp

Sent from my LM-Q710(FGN) using Tapatalk

Simply Red · 08-20-2018, 12:28 PM

bullet pt. 4 is bullshit.

vailpass · 08-20-2018, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Simply Red

bullet pt. 4 is bullshit.

About every point he makes is bullshit to the point it's funny. It's the biased writing you'd expect on a rival team's website not SI.

**The Franchise** · 08-20-2018, 12:36 PM

I'll sure miss all of those hidden touchdowns. Oh and all of those times that he set up the punter.

**Rausch** · 08-20-2018, 12:39 PM

Quote:

With Mahomes as the signal-caller, there will be more explosive plays, meaning a likelier chance of drives taking up less clock. His higher turnover rate will also flip the field in the opponents’ favor more often than the Chiefs have been accustomed to in recent seasons. Having this version of Kansas City’s defense on with a shorter field to defend and on for a longer period of time is a recipe for disaster.

I actually agree with this.

I think we will get in shoot-outs and I do think (over the short term) PM's inexperience will cost us in a few.

I'm ok with that in year 1...

O.city · 08-20-2018, 12:55 PM

Yeah, they felt they hit the ceiling with Smith. They're probably gonna have a down year. If it's something like 8-8, i'd actually prefer to lose a few more. Get a better pick I guess.

Marcellus · 08-20-2018, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

Yeah, they felt they hit the ceiling with Smith. They're probably gonna have a down year. If it's something like 8-8, i'd actually prefer to lose a few more. Get a better pick I guess.

I dont for 1 minute think Reid and company believes this team takes a step back this season or they wouldnt have traded Smith.

O.city · 08-20-2018, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I dont for 1 minute think Reid and company believes this team takes a step back this season or they wouldnt have traded Smith.

They had to trade Smith. They weren't gonna waste 2 years of Mahomes on the bench, not get anything back for Smith after he walks.

Plus they had to have the $ from Smiths deal coming off the books.

Marcellus · 08-20-2018, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

They had to trade Smith. They weren't gonna waste 2 years of Mahomes on the bench, not get anything back for Smith after he walks.

Plus they had to have the $ from Smiths deal coming off the books.

I still think that with the talent on this team they aren't burning a year just to burn it.

I think they expect to win now.

08-20-2018, 12:11 PM	Topic Starter
vailpass Psycho Bag Of Squanch Join Date: Sep 2001 Casino cash: $9594244	Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex S Which one of you banged this guy's wife then wiped your dick on the curtains? Or was it Mahomes that he caught sneaking out the window? Chiefs Betting Preview: Patrick Mahomes Is Electric, but K.C. Will Really Miss Alex Smith Under Center Here at SI Gambling, we are going to unveil our NFL betting experts’ win total previews for all 32 NFL teams. Make sure to check out all of them, as well as the rest of our gambling content, at si.com/gambling. Chiefs 2018 win total: 8 (-160 over, +140 under) Chiefs 2017 record: 10-6 Key offseason acquisitions: WR Sammy Watkins, CB David Amerson, CB Kendall Fuller, LB Anthony Hitchens, NT Xavier Williams, CB Orlando Scandrick, RB Damien Williams, QB Chad Henne Key offseason losses: QB Alex Smith, CB Marcus Peters, LB Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson, CB Terrance Mitchell, CB Phillip Gaines, DT Bennie Logan, WR Albert Wilson, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, OL Zach Fulton, LB Ramik Wilson, OC Matt Nagy Five things to keep in mind before betting the Chiefs' win total 1. Patrick Mahomes certainly raises the Chiefs’ offensive ceiling, however he also can greatly lower the unit’s floor. Mahomes’s electric arm talent can make it easy to forget how important Alex Smith was to this team. Per Warren Sharp in his 2018 Football Preview (a read I highly recommend for all football fans), Smith’s 1.35% interception rate only trails Tom Brady’s 1.3%. Kansas City’s +31 turnover differential over the past two seasons led the NFL, with Baltimore’s +22 and Philadelphia’s +17 ranking second and third respectively. That is a rather wide margin. Turnovers obviously play a huge role in a team’s success, but ending a contest without giving the ball away was especially imperative for the Chiefs. During Smith’s entire time in K.C., the team won 77.6% of its games (38-11 record) in the regular season when he didn’t throw an interception. That number dropped to 44.4% (12-15 record) when he was picked off at least once. Mahomes will deliver more deep strikes through the air, but he will also be responsible for more negative plays, and that could end up being a major setback for this unit. 2. Another key for the Chiefs with Smith at the helm was setting the defense up for the best possible chance for success—although the defense didn’t take advantage last season (we’ll address that later). Per Football Outsiders, the average Chiefs opponent starting field position in 2017 was the 25.49-yard line, the third-best mark in that metric. That was largely due to three factors: Kansas City didn’t turn the ball over (a league-low 11 turnovers), the Chiefs averaged 34.7 yards per drive (sixth-best) and the team’s kickers did not miss many field goals to help out the opposition’s field position (41-45 on FGs, and only one miss from 50+ yards). Kansas City’s drives also lasted an average of 2:52, the eighth-longest time in the NFL. With Mahomes as the signal-caller, there will be more explosive plays, meaning a likelier chance of drives taking up less clock. His higher turnover rate will also flip the field in the opponents’ favor more often than the Chiefs have been accustomed to in recent seasons. Having this version of Kansas City’s defense on with a shorter field to defend and on for a longer period of time is a recipe for disaster. 3. On the defensive side of the ball last year, the Chiefs weren’t just bad. They were flat-out abysmal. The unit ranked 30th in defensive efficiency. Losing safety Eric Berry to a ruptured Achilles in the first game of the season was a killer, yet Kansas City allowed a league-high 192.1 yards per game to wide receivers—including a whopping 90.3 YPG to opposing No. 1 wideouts (the next-worst mark was the Jets at 82.8 YPG)—and that falls on the cornerbacks. Acquiring Kendall Fuller from the Redskins in the Smith trade will be a significant boost in the slot. However the team’s coverage on the outside will be a glaring question mark, especially after dealing ball-hawking corner Marcus Peters to the Rams. This unit will be relying on a 29-year-old safety in Berry with two major injuries already in his past and a 29-year-old pass rusher in Justin Houston who has missed 16 games in the past three seasons. The Chiefs will need those two to be a beacon of health this campaign for any hope of even a league-average defense. 4. The Chiefs have big-time weapons on offense, headlined by Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and offseason acquisition Sammy Watkins. But don’t underestimate the impact of Matt Nagy leaving to be the Bears head coach and replacing him with a first-time NFL offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy. Kansas City was fortunate that going from Doug Pederson to Nagy as OC in 2016 was a seamless transition, but will there be a smooth change this time? Bieniemy was Kansas City’s running backs coach from 2013-17, but his only experience as offensive coordinator was for the University of Colorado, his alma mater, in 2011 and 2012. Colorado’s offense finished 92nd in yards per game and 109th in scoring in 2011, and fell to 119th in YPG and 120th in scoring the following year. 5. It doesn’t get much tougher than Kansas City’s opening stretch: at Chargers, at Steelers, vs. 49ers, at Broncos, vs. Jaguars, at Patriots. Its final six games isn’t a cakewalk either: at Rams, bye, at Raiders, vs. Ravens, vs. Chargers, at Seahawks, vs. Raiders. Going from playing the AFC East and a weaker-than-usual NFC East last season to the AFC North and NFC West, playing a first-place AFC schedule and residing in the AFC West doesn’t give the Chiefs many opportunities for easy wins. PICK: UNDER 8 Wins https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/08/18/ch...ver-under-odds
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08-20-2018, 12:19 PM	#2
Dinny Bossa Nova MVP Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $9990442	Some people shouldn't drink. Dinny
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08-20-2018, 12:20 PM	#3
Fish Ain't no relax! Join Date: Sep 2005 Casino cash: $2258919	__________________
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08-20-2018, 12:20 PM	#5
In58men Baba Ganoush Join Date: Jan 2012 Casino cash: $2268026	Sure gonna miss those check downs and knowing we lost when down by 24 pts __________________ My Kansas City Chief record 9-9
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08-20-2018, 12:29 PM	#6
JoeyChuckles Bring It Home Join Date: Jun 2010 Location: North Haverbrook Casino cash: $10007012	It all sounds about right to me. Mahomes may do great this year, but I doubt he will be the 4th best QB in the league statistically like Smith was last year. The defense will most likely still be bottom 10 with Sutton still here. 7-9 this year sounds perfectly feasible, and I'd be totally okay with that if Mahomes gets experience and we build towards 2019 and 2020.
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08-20-2018, 12:28 PM	#8
Simply Red You Sweetie! Join Date: Sep 2005 Casino cash: $2021206219 VARSITY	bullet pt. 4 is bullshit.
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08-20-2018, 12:36 PM	#10
The Franchise Most Valuable Villain Join Date: Dec 2006 Casino cash: $3085047	I'll sure miss all of those hidden touchdowns. Oh and all of those times that he set up the punter.
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08-20-2018, 12:55 PM	#12
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $2724064	Yeah, they felt they hit the ceiling with Smith. They're probably gonna have a down year. If it's something like 8-8, i'd actually prefer to lose a few more. Get a better pick I guess.
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