Is 2016 a breaking point for this team?

[RealSNR]

I was messing around on Rotoworld looking at how long we've got guys under contract. In terms of losing our own players, the 2014 free agency season is basically finished. All we have left is Kendrick Lewis, and it's apparent that we're not bringing him back. So I wanted to see how we were doing for 2015. It's not that good, but it's known from the most recent press conference that Dorsey is currently talking through and working on extensions with Alex Smith and Justin Houston.

Let's take Direckshun's assumptions that he made in his most recent mock draft:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

1. The Chiefs extend QB Alex Smith 6 years, $90m (when you break the numbers down, it will actually break down to 4 years, $60m, with something like $35m guaranteed), and S Eric Berry 6 years, $45m ($23m guaranteed). They will extend Justin Houston at some point during the 2015 season.

2. The Chiefs let walk: WR Kyle Williams, S Kendrick Lewis

3. The Chiefs sign WR/KR Jacoby Ford (Raiders) to a 1 year, $1m deal.

These are the Chiefs who played snaps for the team last year who will become free agents in 2015:

Allen Bailey
Thomas Gafford
Junior Hemingway (Exclusive rights FA)
Rodney Hudson
Rishaw Johnson (RFA)
Josh Martin (Exclusive rights FA)
Dezman Moses (RFA)
Ron Parker
Anthony Sherman

That's nothing to shake a stick at, but this group also doesn't have anybody particularly pertinent on it who would require a lot of money. A guy like Anthony Sherman might ask for a contract more expensive than we're willing to offer, so I think he would walk. Rodney Hudson is supposedly going to be replaced by Eric Kush very soon, so I guess he walks as well. Nobody knows if Hemingway, Martin, and Moses will even be on the team next year. That basically leaves us with Bailey, Gafford, Johnson, and Parker. It would be great to keep any of those players, and they should all be pretty cheap with the possible exception of Bailey.

Direckshun's plan sets us up pretty well into 2015. We'd be spending barely any money to keep our own players. Really, the only guy I can see as a MUST keep is Gafford, and that should be a cheap deal.

Now what about 2016?

Jeff Allen
Donnie Avery
Tyler Bray (RFA)
Jamaal Charles
Chase Daniel
Mike DeVito
Cyrus Gray
Tamba Hali
Jaye Howard
AJ Jenkins
Derrick Johnson
Joe Mays
Sean McGrath
Dontari Poe
Sean Smith
Donald Stephenson
Rokevious Watkins
Frank Zombo

Ehhhhhhhhghggghhhhhh........

You can assume that Charles, DeVito, Hali, and DJ will be much older and feebler at this point, but they're still critical cogs to how this team currently runs. Yes, we'll (hopefully) be acquiring more playmakers through the draft, and yes, there will be some players currently on the team who break out into solid starting players and beyond. But that's still a lot of dudes. Even if you want to argue that current starters like Allen, Avery, Fasano, and Smith would hopefully be replaced by fresher and better players, that means we're still devoting a lot of resources to getting this team "right" instead of planning for the future.

We'll basically be depending on getting 3-4 starters per draft in 2014 and 2015. That's kind of a lot to expect.

I would hope that we could keep Charles around beyond 2016 if he still has gas left for not all that much money. Same goes for DJ. Hali may wind up being a cap casualty before then. We're looking at two starters on the offensive line (Stephenson and Allen) who will need new deals or replacements. Dontari Poe. ****. Dontari Poe. He's a big man, and he'll need a big deal. Daniel and Bray... I mean, who ****ing cares, right? But we still will likely need to spend draft stock on replacements in some way. We need as many draft picks as we can get these next two years. And I'm even looking at Mays, Jenkins, DeVito...

Basically, the stakes are pretty ****ing high by the time we get to 2016. If Dorsey does his homework these next two years, we'll be pretty okay, I think. If he doesn't...

Blow up the ship? Start again?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

And they might have 5 new starters opening day.

I don't think so.

Fisher/Stephenson
Allen
Hudson
Johnson
Fisher/Stephenson

[Titty Meat]

Mr. Dorsey tear down this team

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Chocolate Hog

Hopefully Dorsey trades a guy like Flowers or Hali for a draft pick this year but I dont think any team would take on thos contracts.

No one's taking on a 10 million dollar a year player with this draft class approaching.

They'll have this year to either play to their deal, restructure etc, or be cut.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by O.city

I don't think so.

Fisher/Stephenson
Allen
Hudson
Johnson
Fisher/Stephenson

That's 3 new starters, depending on Fisher.

And of course you're like the only one suggesting that. A lot of people are advocating starting lush and moving Hudson, which would make it 4.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Chocolate Hog

Mr. Dorsey tear down this team

I'd prefer they didn't. After what they gave up to get Smith, they should be looking to continue their momentum.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

That's 3 new starters, depending on Fisher.

And of course you're like the only one suggesting that. A lot of people are advocating starting lush and moving Hudson, which would make it 4.

Thats not gonna happen.

Kush is going to be the swing inside guy.

[O.city]

With the draft and free agency, you should never have to "start over" in the NFL.

[DeezNutz]

Q

[Easy 6]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

The line looked pretty good down the stretch. Too bad they're starting over from scratch...

Yes they did, so get ready for a guard at #1 instead of keeping Schwartz and some continuity OH YEAH

ps - we REALLY need a Kool-Aid man smilie, like REALLY.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by Dave Lane

I'd be in trade anyone on that list short of Bray, Stephenson and Poe for draft picks. I really think its time to trade Charles and Hali if anyone would cough up a decent set of picks.

Normally I'd be all for trading an aging RB, but I would rather hold on to Jamaal for a few reasons:

1) He's a generational talent type of guy. Possibly one of the best ever.

2) This offense perfectly utilizes his skill set.

3) His most productive days are likely still ahead of him.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by O.city

With the draft and free agency, you should never have to "start over" in the NFL.

The Chiefs really only use one of those now.

[ThaVirus]

I'd trade the piss and shit out of Hali though. Bowe (if it were possible) and Flowers could get their asses traded for decent picks as well.

The only "aging" players I'd keep are DJ, Jamaal, and obviously Alex.

[Dave Lane]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

A second-rounder for Bray? **** you!!!

I'd take that in a minute. I suspect all we would get would be a 7th rounder I'd keep him for that

[DeezNutz]

Originally Posted by Dave Lane

I'd take that in a minute. I suspect all we would get would be a 7th rounder I'd keep him for that

In seriousness, I agree.

[Easy 6]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I'd prefer they didn't. After what they gave up to get Smith, they should be looking to continue their momentum.

After the huge growth spurt last year, they should've been looking for two impact, starting free agents and then plug the gaps and add depth through the draft... its like they went to the five year plan after seeing that a two year swing was possible.

I sincerely dont get it... TWO second tier but solid starters at FS and WR, it wasnt asking for franchise suicide in the least, but nope.

Every improvement at the two most crucial spots will now have to come from injured second year guys, rookies and scrap heap vets... it sucks, I wont lie.