Is 2016 a breaking point for this team?

[RealSNR]

I was messing around on Rotoworld looking at how long we've got guys under contract. In terms of losing our own players, the 2014 free agency season is basically finished. All we have left is Kendrick Lewis, and it's apparent that we're not bringing him back. So I wanted to see how we were doing for 2015. It's not that good, but it's known from the most recent press conference that Dorsey is currently talking through and working on extensions with Alex Smith and Justin Houston.

Let's take Direckshun's assumptions that he made in his most recent mock draft:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

1. The Chiefs extend QB Alex Smith 6 years, $90m (when you break the numbers down, it will actually break down to 4 years, $60m, with something like $35m guaranteed), and S Eric Berry 6 years, $45m ($23m guaranteed). They will extend Justin Houston at some point during the 2015 season.

2. The Chiefs let walk: WR Kyle Williams, S Kendrick Lewis

3. The Chiefs sign WR/KR Jacoby Ford (Raiders) to a 1 year, $1m deal.

These are the Chiefs who played snaps for the team last year who will become free agents in 2015:

Allen Bailey
Thomas Gafford
Junior Hemingway (Exclusive rights FA)
Rodney Hudson
Rishaw Johnson (RFA)
Josh Martin (Exclusive rights FA)
Dezman Moses (RFA)
Ron Parker
Anthony Sherman

That's nothing to shake a stick at, but this group also doesn't have anybody particularly pertinent on it who would require a lot of money. A guy like Anthony Sherman might ask for a contract more expensive than we're willing to offer, so I think he would walk. Rodney Hudson is supposedly going to be replaced by Eric Kush very soon, so I guess he walks as well. Nobody knows if Hemingway, Martin, and Moses will even be on the team next year. That basically leaves us with Bailey, Gafford, Johnson, and Parker. It would be great to keep any of those players, and they should all be pretty cheap with the possible exception of Bailey.

Direckshun's plan sets us up pretty well into 2015. We'd be spending barely any money to keep our own players. Really, the only guy I can see as a MUST keep is Gafford, and that should be a cheap deal.

Now what about 2016?

Jeff Allen
Donnie Avery
Tyler Bray (RFA)
Jamaal Charles
Chase Daniel
Mike DeVito
Cyrus Gray
Tamba Hali
Jaye Howard
AJ Jenkins
Derrick Johnson
Joe Mays
Sean McGrath
Dontari Poe
Sean Smith
Donald Stephenson
Rokevious Watkins
Frank Zombo

Ehhhhhhhhghggghhhhhh........

You can assume that Charles, DeVito, Hali, and DJ will be much older and feebler at this point, but they're still critical cogs to how this team currently runs. Yes, we'll (hopefully) be acquiring more playmakers through the draft, and yes, there will be some players currently on the team who break out into solid starting players and beyond. But that's still a lot of dudes. Even if you want to argue that current starters like Allen, Avery, Fasano, and Smith would hopefully be replaced by fresher and better players, that means we're still devoting a lot of resources to getting this team "right" instead of planning for the future.

We'll basically be depending on getting 3-4 starters per draft in 2014 and 2015. That's kind of a lot to expect.

I would hope that we could keep Charles around beyond 2016 if he still has gas left for not all that much money. Same goes for DJ. Hali may wind up being a cap casualty before then. We're looking at two starters on the offensive line (Stephenson and Allen) who will need new deals or replacements. Dontari Poe. ****. Dontari Poe. He's a big man, and he'll need a big deal. Daniel and Bray... I mean, who ****ing cares, right? But we still will likely need to spend draft stock on replacements in some way. We need as many draft picks as we can get these next two years. And I'm even looking at Mays, Jenkins, DeVito...

Basically, the stakes are pretty ****ing high by the time we get to 2016. If Dorsey does his homework these next two years, we'll be pretty okay, I think. If he doesn't...

Blow up the ship? Start again?