OverTheCap.com: Chiefs 2015 Salary Cap Outlook

[The Franchise]

http://overthecap.com/chiefs-2015-salary-cap-outlook/

Estimated 2015 Cap Space: -$1.7M ($140M cap limit)

Roster Overview
Players Under Contract: 67
Pro Bowlers: 4
Unrestricted Free Agents: 14(6 with 50%+ playtime)
Draft Selection: 18

Salary Cap Breakdown






Free Agents to Re-sign
Justin Houston is a must sign if the Chiefs have any intention of keeping their defense as a strength of team. Houston is a devastating pass rusher that is the best outside linebacker in the NFL. Clay Matthews is the current positional price leader at $13.2 million a season and Houston is a superior player to Matthews even going back to the timeframe in which he signed his contract. He can push the $14 million mark. Kansas City can, and likely will franchise tag him to protect their rights. Kansas City has used the tag on Branden Albert, Tamba Hali, and Dwayne Bowe in three of the last four years so it’s a given they will find a way to use it here. This will be a very difficult negotiation for Kansas City who also failed to seal the deal with Bowe and Albert when tagged. The fact that they failed to get a deal done during the season gives Houston even more negotiating leverage because of the Chiefs cap concerns…The Chiefs have allowed their offensive line to deteriorate due to salary cap concerns, but keeping Rodney Hudson would be wise to begin reversing the trend. He has slowly grown into one of the better players in the NFL at the position which puts him in the $5-6 million dollar man club with potential to earn more. A team with extreme cap space like the Jaguars can more or less make an offer the Chiefs have no chance of matching if they let him get to March.

Free Agents to Let Walk
In a perfect world the Chiefs should bring back Ron Parker, especially with the health concerns for Eric Berry, which go well beyond the football field. But it’s not a perfect world and he could push for the $6M a year that was received by players like LaRon Landry and William Moore, which is just too expensive for the Chiefs at this point. The kind of contract that they would need to give him at that price would be incredibly player friendly giving them no realistic outs in the future…Mike McGlynn graded as one of the worst guards in the NFL by Pro Football Focus so it’s pretty obvious the team will be looking to replace him, even if he plays at the minimum.

Contracts to Modify
Sometimes in the NFL deals just don’t work out and that is what happened between the Chiefs and Bowe. Bowe showed every trait needed for a number one and it was easy to blame the lack of production on the lack of presence at the QB position. But he has had a professional QB for the last two years and done nothing. Bowe has a $14 million cap charge and the team saves $5 million if they release him, but given their lack of depth at receiver its best to find a way to keep him. If Bowe were to be released tomorrow I don’t believe he would have more than $4 million in value around the NFL and it might be less than that. If the Chiefs can get him to play for $4-5 million that creates at least $6 million in cap room, more than if they released him outright. This in my mind is a must do….There is likely no way for the Chiefs to function if Alex Smith carries a $15.6M cap hit. Converting $5M of his base salary to a bonus will free up just under $4M without damaging their future too much. They can save $8M if they go all in on his restructure though that will leave them with massive cap charges in the future… Tamba Hali will carry an $11.96M cap charge if the Chiefs can’t extend him. Hali will be 32 and the Chiefs should try to model a deal similar to the one the Ravens signed with Terrell Suggs last year once they had Elvis Dumervil as the proven young pass rusher. Suggs signed for just over $5M a year in return for some massive guarantees. His cap fell from $12.4M to $7.8M with the move, so the numbers should be similar here for the team.

Players to Consider Releasing
Mike DeVito has missed 15 games in his two years with the Chiefs and it is unlikely they can risk a roster spot on him again. They have players who stepped up in his absence and he saves the team $4 million if cut….Releasing Donnie Avery saves the team $3.55 million and his production can easily be replaced by a minimum salary player…While the Chiefs like having Anthony Fasano it is time to go full steam ahead with Travis Kelce who is developing into a tremendous all around player. Fasno’s release creates just under $2 million in cap space…While it is nice to have a backup you can rely on if the Chiefs want to keep their best players in uniform next season, Chase Daniel probably has to go and you have to risk the QB staying healthy. Releasing Daniel will result in $3.8 million of cap space….Cutting Joe Mays, who had no impact last season, saves the team $3 million…The release of Hali and Bowe are also clear possibilities.

Offseason Plan
Everyone saw the writing on the wall for where this was headed once the Chiefs were successful in 2013. The team spent a great deal of money that season to add to a group of underachievers which did push them over the hump, but was going to leave them clawing and scratching for cap space down the line. With major players to re-sign one could argue that they have the second worst cap position in the NFL. There is no team in the NFL that would benefit more from the salary cap rising well beyond the NFL projections of $138-142 million.

If they are forced to carry Houston on the tag and we use our $140M cap estimate that puts the Chiefs in the ballpark of $15 million over the salary cap. With that kind of position it will be near impossible to free up space to negotiate favorable terms with Houston and Hudson, instead needing to go the large bonus and low cap charge in year one route. That said the Chiefs usually use such contract mechanisms so it is not the kind of departure from the norm it would be with other teams.

I think the Chiefs need to map out a plan and not dwell too much on one player. Houston should be the top priority but if it seems to be at an impasse they shouldn’t forget about Hudson and then scramble at the last second to come up with something. I feel like that was a problem in the year the re-signed Bowe and tagged Albert. They also need to decide quickly as to Houston’s willingness to come to terms quickly because if he does not then they need to make as many moves as possible to create the cap space to swing some leverage in their favor.

If the Chiefs do everything mapped out above and are forced to tag Houston it should leave them with $15 million to spend on draft picks, free agents and Hudson. If they do the low year one cap deal with Hudson they will have around $10 million after they sign rookies. I’d say that would max their free agent dollars at $6.5 million. They can get more relief from Smith to increase that figure.

I haven’t mentioned Berry at all but know I will get questions about him. The Chiefs can work out various terms with Berry to try to lessen the immediate cap hit. That can include a lower salary knowing he may not be able to play again or even splitting his salary over two years with the intent to put him on NFI and pay him over two years if he comes back the following season. I can’t see any scenario in which they cut him or simply make the decision to pay him nothing so I think its best to just operate on the assumption he’ll have his full cap charge for the offseason and they will come up with a solution in the summer when hopefully he is getting better and better news about his condition.

The Chiefs are in desperate need of a receiver but they won’t find it easy to get one in free agency unless they get a deal done with Houston. Cutting Hali may also be a pre-requisite to that. Given the makeup of the team I am not sure they can wait for draft development at this position so they will likely do whatever they can to make it happen. The large contract they gave to Bowe is also going to have receivers asking for the moon when they come to the team since the Chiefs already set their own precedent for the valuation of a number 1 projected receiver. One would lean towards Jeremy Maclin being their top target if they can find a way to squeeze him in.

There is no shortage of offensive lineman available in free agency, but being that they have let go of Albert, Geoff Schwartz, and Jon Asamoah it is hard to picture them going for players that would grade in the above average pay tier. I see this as more of a draft position to fill in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I would imagine their secondary help will also come via the draft.

Not many teams seem to land in a position like the Chiefs are in right now. They are faced with the decision of the cap dictating difficult cuts or perhaps not the best terms if they keep the player on the roster. Unlike teams of the past with tough choices like the Raiders, Jets, and Colts this is far more complex because the Chiefs are highly competitive and filled with a mix of young and old that seems prepared to challenge now for at least a division crown.

The wrong decisions though can really damage the team in the future, pigeonholing the team into the 2015 roster for the next few seasons without opportunity to really change much. I’ve seen plenty of teams go through that and it is not a pleasant experience and extremely frustrating for the fanbase. This will be a team to watch over the next few weeks to see what direction they are headed for in free agency.

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO

QB?

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by BossChief

What young talent is Dorsey moving on from while rebuilding?

McCluster? Signed for 4m per
Albert? IR after half season after missing the end of 2013.
Flowers? Missed time and we ended up with a higher rated secondary after cutting him
Asamoah? 4.5 per year for him.. No
Dorsey?...dude has been broken since he left
Tyson Jackson? Hahahahaha
Kendrick Lewis? Hahaha
Javier Arenas? Hahaha
Tony Moeaki? Can't fix bones made of crackers

I'm failing to see which moves I'd reverse ...

Signing Smith based on one playoff game instead of extending Houston last year.

Back to back reaches with first round draft picks.

Signing Chase Daniel to an atrociously bad contract two years ago.

Opting for a gadget player in Thomas over just about any position of need on the team in the 14 draft.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

That is the reason we drafted Fisher to get rid of Alberts big number. We drafted Ford to get rid of Halis big number. We will draft this year to get rid of someone elses big number. Just look at where the money is at or is going to be at soon and you will see high potential in drafting those positions.

That's part of being a good gm.

Replacing aging talent that is on the downward side of their careers.

Albert is gonna be 31, is injury prone and got a huge contract that Miami might have to eat.

Hali is due 12 million and only had 6 sacks while showing signs of breaking down.

Bowe isn't worth 14 million, is he?

I think it's smart to draft replacements ahead of time so they have time to learn the reigns from the vets.

[Chiefnj2]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Albert only played in 9 games last year and missed 7 games in the previous 2 years combined.

Missing 14 games the last 3 years is very significant.

He will also turn 31 next year and is clearly showing signs of breaking down.

Not sure he is gonna prove to be worth 20m guaranteed and a 5yr 47m contract...

He probably won't be worth his contract. Sadly, it doesn't look like Fisher will be worth his contract or draft slot either.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Signing Smith based on one playoff game instead of extending Houston last year.

Back to back reaches with first round draft picks.

Signing Chase Daniel to an atrociously bad contract two years ago.

Opting for a gadget player in Thomas over just about any position of need on the team in the 14 draft.

Houston didn't want to sign then. It's obvious that he chose to gamble on himself. Even as a rookie he was the last guy to sign even though they were slotted contracts. The guy wants EVERY DIME.

I think Fisher was a reach, but basically every single scout didn't. Hopefully a full offseason of strength training and working on his technique will save his career. Dee Ford was a legit pick and might end up the best pass rusher of his draft class. He sure looked to have the tools to be a difference maker in limited time.

I hated the Daniel signing. I do think they will trade him though. I know not many think that's possible.

Drafting Thomas was brilliant. The guy is a weapon on offense and special teams...not sure how anyone could say that was a bad pick.

[Chiefnj2]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Houston didn't want to sign then. It's obvious that he chose to gamble on himself. Even as a rookie he was the last guy to sign even though they were slotted contracts. The guy wants EVERY DIME.

I think Fisher was a reach, but basically every single scout didn't. Hopefully a full offseason of strength training and working on his technique will save his career. Dee Ford was a legit pick and might end up the best pass rusher of his draft class. He sure looked to have the tools to be a difference maker in limited time.

I hated the Daniel signing. I do think they will trade him though. I know not many think that's possible.

Drafting Thomas was brilliant. The guy is a weapon on offense and special teams...not sure how anyone could say that was a bad pick.

DAT wasn't really a weapon on offense.

[Red Dawg]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

DAT wasn't really a weapon on offense.

OMG, our rookie wasn't an instant weapon on offense! How can that be? Maybe he was learning? No, not learning.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Signing Smith based on one playoff game instead of extending Houston last year.

If he didn't sign him we'd now have both these guys to sign right now and that would be very difficult, especially with other teams trying to get Alex.

It's hard enough signing Houston.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Signing Smith based on one playoff game instead of extending Houston last year.

Back to back reaches with first round draft picks.

Signing Chase Daniel to an atrociously bad contract two years ago.

Opting for a gadget player in Thomas over just about any position of need on the team in the 14 draft.

How can anyone be pissed about drafting DAT? It's not like he was a first round pick.

[BigRock]

Originally Posted by BossChief

1) Berry won't count against the cap at all in 2015 and didn't count against the cap after his diagnosis last year. His 8.357 will be fully available.

Don't you think the article might have mentioned this if it were true? Players on NFI aren't exempt from the cap. Teams have the option not to pay them, but it rarely happens. Usually they just pay them some smaller percentage of what they were set to make. But even if it was common for a player to be paid nothing, it would never happen with Berry.

As the article stated, they'll work something out with him. But it's not going to free up $8M in cap space. Probably nowhere near it.

[Chiefnj2]

Originally Posted by Tuckdaddy

OMG, our rookie wasn't an instant weapon on offense! How can that be? Maybe he was learning? No, not learning.

He said he WAS a weapon on offense. Not that he CAN be or COULD be.

Less than 300 yards combined receiving and rushing isn't a weapon.

And, Dexter had a 2 million dollar cap hit last year, not the 4 that was being thrown around. I think Dex would have been worth the 3 year 9 mil contract since no other receiver on the team last year came close to matching his 2013 productivity.

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by BigRock

Don't you think the article might have mentioned this if it were true? Players on NFI aren't exempt from the cap. Teams have the option not to pay them, but it rarely happens. Usually they just pay them some smaller percentage of what they were set to make. But even if it was common for a player to be paid nothing, it would never happen with Berry.

As the article stated, they'll work something out with him. But it's not going to free up $8M in cap space. Probably nowhere near it.

I believe you are correct. What I remember reading (fuzzily, so this may not be 100%...) is that they're not obligated to pay his 2015 salary if they go NFI, but the pro-rated portions of his contract will still hit the cap. Which means basically the same number they'd get if they cut him. Something like five and a half million. And I can't imagine them making either one of those total dick moves. Like you I'm expecting they'll work some other kind of deal out so they continue to pay him something. Don't even want to imagine the kind of pr shitstorm we'd see if they turned their back on a guy fighting cancer to free up an extra couple million in cap space. Not the kind of thing you probably want to see running on espn during the dead period, much less trending on Twitter with other nfl players past and present talking about it.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

He said he WAS a weapon on offense. Not that he CAN be or COULD be.

Less than 300 yards combined receiving and rushing isn't a weapon.

And, Dexter had a 2 million dollar cap hit last year, not the 4 that was being thrown around. I think Dex would have been worth the 3 year 9 mil contract since no other receiver on the team last year came close to matching his 2013 productivity.

He still gives you the ability to run the jet sweep, which forces the defense to stay on their toes. Weapon may be a strong word, but he was a factor on offense. If he improves his receiving skills, which he should, he will undoubtedly be a weapon.

[Warpaint69]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

He still gives you the ability to run the jet sweep, which forces the defense to stay on their toes. Weapon may be a strong word, but he was a factor on offense. If he improves his receiving skills, which he should, he will undoubtedly be a weapon.

Between the stupid Colleges like Oregon that have semesters ending late and his injury to start the season he missed a ton a valuable time to get worked into the offense. You can see that DAT is way more explosive with the ball than McCluster ever was. I'll take DAT all day long compared to the overpaid McCluster.

McCluster got just over $2 million last season and DAT got just over $525,000. The Punt return game didn't skip a beat, but yes he wasn't as much of a WR threat as McCluster had been, yet. Complaining about DAT is beyond dumb.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Warpaint69

Between the stupid Colleges like Oregon that have semesters ending late and his injury to start the season he missed a ton a valuable time to get worked into the offense. You can see that DAT is way more explosive with the ball than McCluster ever was. I'll take DAT all day long compared to the overpaid McCluster.

Plus ota rules negotiated in the new cba. Virtually impossible these days for rookies to be a factor. I do think mccluster is missed, but in a different way. Mccluster is more Jason Avant than he is DAT.