Round 1 surprises?

[Mile High Mania]

So, there's 1-2 guys that typically leap into R1 that nobody projected... and 1-2 guys that fall to R2 or R3.

Obviously, the players with recent issues are the clear candidates to fall.

Who are the 1-2 players you guys see either moving up big in R1 or jumping into R1, providing a WTF moment?

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

Not a 3rd string corner, 3rd OLB, and a soft D lineman

Well, he is a 3rd string corner behind two studs... Ray steps in now full time to take over for Ware. Williams, could improve, but that's the DL as a whole as well.

Ray started 8 games last year, had 8 sacks and is entering year 3.
Roby is entering his 4th season.
Williams is entering his 5th season, starting the last 4.

Sounds like 'impact player' has a loose definitition to it... I'm not claiming their all-pros at their positions, but they're definitely not failed picks that don't see the field. Shane Ray has big potential now in 2017 as the lead dog.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

So Dee Ford is a stud then huh? 10 plus sacks in a rotating role and EASILY a better player than Ray...Roby is burnt toast. KC has 3 guys and cut another better than Williams

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Well, he is a 3rd string corner behind two studs... Ray steps in now full time to take over for Ware. Williams, could improve, but that's the DL as a whole as well.

Ray started 8 games last year, had 8 sacks and is entering year 3.
Roby is entering his 4th season.
Williams is entering his 5th season, starting the last 4.

Sounds like 'impact player' has a loose definitition to it... I'm not claiming their all-pros at their positions, but they're definitely not failed picks that don't see the field. Shane Ray has big potential now in 2017 as the lead dog.

What a crappy list of 1st round draft picks

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Define 'impact player'.

[Mile High Mania]

Well, the purpose of this thread isn't to get into a pissing contest on picks...

We can debate the Fords and Rays of the world in another thread.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Well if Roby wasn't a bust, they could cut that thug Talib

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

Well if Roby wasn't a bust, they could cut that thug Talib

Guess they would cut him either way if there were a reason to...

[kccrow]

I don't know what to consider surprises anymore... but here's some thoughts...

Risers:
T.J. Watt, OLB, Wisconsin - Pedigree. Measurables. Good production last year. Looks like an NFL pass rusher on the field.
Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Colorado - It could be argued this guy is the top CB in the draft, and that's not really stretching it.
Evan Engram, TE, Ole Miss - His blend of size, speed, agility and hands are extremely rare. I think a team takes him and puts him at WR and it very well could be much earlier than expected.
Chris Wormley, DT, Michigan - Teams are going to look at Chris Jones' success as a rookie in a 3-4 and then look at Wormley to see a similar player.
Josh Jones, SS, N.C. State - He can hit and cover. Could go to Dallas at 28.
Chris Godwin, WR, Penn State - He's got an inch and 10 pounds on Jeremy Maclin coming out and he has slightly better measurables across the board, plus he was about as productive as one could expect at Penn State the past few years. I don't really understand his late 2nd round grading by many pundits, but the NFL is sure to have taken notice of his skills. The question is, is there enough room in the round for many WRs to go off the board with all that defensive talent?
Budda Baker, FS, Washington - Cut from the same cloth as Tyrann Mathieu and Earl Thomas, there's a very real possibility a team will covet him very early.

Fallers:
Malik McDowell, DT, Michigan State - He looks lazy. I don't think teams will be attracted to that. Chris Jones and Carlos Dunlap got that rap a bit and they both fell mid-2nd.
Charles Harris, DE, Mizzou - Terrible offseason workouts coupled with some bad tape in 2016 could mean a tumble down the draft board. With all the pass rushers in this class, he might not hear his name called until day 2.
Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan - Truly a master of nothing, he's an athlete you're hoping to develop. I see him in the same light as OSU's Curtis Samuel. I think he's a day 2 lump of clay. He might go round 1, but the tape doesn't suggest it.
DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame - Between horrendous 2016 tape and worrisome offseason sessions, I don't think this kid goes round 1. I'd be surprised if he does at this point.
Adoree Jackson, CB, USC - I see him as nothing much more than a nickel corner and punt returner. There's alot of value to that, but I don't think he goes round 1. Seems to be alot of unwarranted hype surrounding this guy.
Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama - His lack of fluid hips, like most Alabama CBs, is going to throw up red flags for NFL decision makers. They've seen this type before from 'Bama, and they've been busts.

Obvious Fallers:
Gareon Conley, CB, OSU - Rape allegations
Caleb Brantley, DT, Florida - Domestic Abuse

Possible Climber:
Joe Mixon, RB, Oklahoma - It's been a while since his "episode" and the talent is obvious. I still think round 2 is his ceiling (to Minnesota)

[DJ's left nut]

I really like Baker. That guy is a perfect long-term complement to Berry.

He's Parker with the edge to his game that we always hoped Parker would find. Earl Thomas is a great comp, even if it's totally unfair to compare anyone to a guy as good as Earl Thomas. I think he'll play a very similar type of game - extremely good in space but with the ability and willingness to blast you if you let your guard down.

I think he'd be a 'surprise' in that he's stayed under the radar but I think you're right - there are teams out there that will value him very highly. Hell, if Seattle is nervous that Earl may suffer another injury and just say "**** it, I'm out", he could be a fit for them at 26. It would be a little risk-averse as a pick, but he'd fit that scheme like a glove.

[Kiimo]

This is a surprise:

Colts trying to trade into top 10 to select...McCaffrey. Yikes they need a lot of big guys first.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Kiimosabi

This is a surprise:

Colts trying to trade into top 10 to select...McCaffrey. Yikes they need a lot of big guys first.

I wish him the best, but history is not on his side in the NFL.

Anyway, good luck to you guys over the draft.

[Chief Northman]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I don't know what to consider surprises anymore... but here's some thoughts...

Risers:
T.J. Watt, OLB, Wisconsin - Pedigree. Measurables. Good production last year. Looks like an NFL pass rusher on the field.
Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Colorado - It could be argued this guy is the top CB in the draft, and that's not really stretching it.
Evan Engram, TE, Ole Miss - His blend of size, speed, agility and hands are extremely rare. I think a team takes him and puts him at WR and it very well could be much earlier than expected.
Chris Wormley, DT, Michigan - Teams are going to look at Chris Jones' success as a rookie in a 3-4 and then look at Wormley to see a similar player.
Josh Jones, SS, N.C. State - He can hit and cover. Could go to Dallas at 28.
Chris Godwin, WR, Penn State - He's got an inch and 10 pounds on Jeremy Maclin coming out and he has slightly better measurables across the board, plus he was about as productive as one could expect at Penn State the past few years. I don't really understand his late 2nd round grading by many pundits, but the NFL is sure to have taken notice of his skills. The question is, is there enough room in the round for many WRs to go off the board with all that defensive talent?
Budda Baker, FS, Washington - Cut from the same cloth as Tyrann Mathieu and Earl Thomas, there's a very real possibility a team will covet him very early.

Fallers:
Malik McDowell, DT, Michigan State - He looks lazy. I don't think teams will be attracted to that. Chris Jones and Carlos Dunlap got that rap a bit and they both fell mid-2nd.
Charles Harris, DE, Mizzou - Terrible offseason workouts coupled with some bad tape in 2016 could mean a tumble down the draft board. With all the pass rushers in this class, he might not hear his name called until day 2.
Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan - Truly a master of nothing, he's an athlete you're hoping to develop. I see him in the same light as OSU's Curtis Samuel. I think he's a day 2 lump of clay. He might go round 1, but the tape doesn't suggest it.
DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame - Between horrendous 2016 tape and worrisome offseason sessions, I don't think this kid goes round 1. I'd be surprised if he does at this point.
Adoree Jackson, CB, USC - I see him as nothing much more than a nickel corner and punt returner. There's alot of value to that, but I don't think he goes round 1. Seems to be alot of unwarranted hype surrounding this guy.
Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama - His lack of fluid hips, like most Alabama CBs, is going to throw up red flags for NFL decision makers. They've seen this type before from 'Bama, and they've been busts.

Obvious Fallers:
Gareon Conley, CB, OSU - Rape allegations
Caleb Brantley, DT, Florida - Domestic Abuse

Possible Climber:
Joe Mixon, RB, Oklahoma - It's been a while since his "episode" and the talent is obvious. I still think round 2 is his ceiling (to Minnesota)

Godwin, Wormley or Baker in round two = winning.

Love these players. Godwin is so well-rounded, and he is a nasty blocker in the run game. Has a little Anquan Boldin in him. Wormley has great versatility and plays with fantastic technique. Baker has some jam to his game where he can be as effective in the blitz game as he is in coverage.

It would be a coup to land any one of these guys with our 2nd rounder.

[crazycoffey]

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Moving up:

Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Colorado
Davis Webb, QB, California

Moving down:

Deshone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame
Jabrill Peppers, S/LB, Michigan

Agree on Webb, maybe to the chiefs?