**** you guys saying taking a QB in the first solves everything

[Rams Fan]

Bradford's hurt again. He's played above average since he's been drafted. The Rams built around him on O and built a good D in the meantime. **** all of you guys who said drafting a QB solves everything.

[Skyy God]

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By

Fascinating to watch people trying to spin the "Gotta be a home grown 1st round pick" line into some kind of universal truth. The bullshit excuses that come up are always impressive.

Roughly half the SBs have been won by non-first round picks.
Roughly 1/4 of the SBs have been won by QBs who weren't playing for their original teams.


That's just the way it is.

A historically lower number of teams in the league pushed more QBs out of the 1st round and created movement at the position (i.e., backup develops behind an entrenched starter). Neither applies with a 32 team, pass-heavy league.

[Just Passin' By]

Originally Posted by Cave Johnson

A historically lower number of teams in the league pushed more QBs out of the 1st round and created movement at the position (i.e., backup develops behind an entrenched starter). Neither applies with a 32 team, pass-heavy league.

And another bullshit excuse is added to the list.


Keep 'em coming.

[RunKC]

Glad you asked. Here is the list of the 30.

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles...decade-a-recap

Of QB's who haven't won a SB, the one's who are starters today that could push for one are as follows:

Rivers
Ryan
Stafford (very debatable).

Oh and Alex Smith, but he doesn't count. CP doesn't believe in him. So 6, maybe 7, out of 30.

23% chance at best.

[RunKC]

Dalton
Kaep
Wilson
Brady
Brees

These QB's have been regulars in the playoffs and they weren't first rd picks. That's basically HALF of the entire playoff bracket.

It's about who the QB is. But yes drafting one top 50 works best.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Dalton
Kaep
Wilson
Brady
Brees

These QB's have been regulars in the playoffs and they weren't first rd picks. That's basically HALF of the entire playoff bracket.

It's about who the QB is. But yes drafting one top 50 works best.

Progress.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By

Fascinating to watch people trying to spin the "Gotta be a home grown 1st round pick" line into some kind of universal truth. The bullshit excuses that come up are always impressive.

Roughly half the SBs have been won by non-first round picks.
Roughly 1/4 of the SBs have been won by QBs who weren't playing for their original teams.


That's just the way it is.

Meh, that wasn't my line and I wasn't really arguing it.

You pretty much need a QB that can play at an elite level in the playoffs or a great defense that can stop it.

Going back 3 or 4 decades is completely pointless. Not only was it a different game, you're talking about a higher ratio of available QBs per team. By all means though, keep arguing Dawson and Namath like they matter.

Dilfer and Johnson obviously benefited from great defenses. It's not that they 'don't count', but they obviously don't win SBs without one.

Look at that graphic... the Chiefs have averaged one QB in the top 3 rounds per decade for the past 30 years, and one since 1993 (and 15 linemen in the first 3 rounds since drafting Croyle).... and you have one team that hit the lottery with Brady, a QB that won with an elite defense, and Kurt Warner. And of course you can see what the strategy has done for the Chiefs.

But yeah, hang your hat on those stats.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by RunKC

This graph is not indicative of first rd QB's in general. Several of those QB's won multiple SB's.


For example, there have been 30 first rd QB's drafted from 2000-2010. I'm not counting the 2011-2014 first rd QB's bc they haven't had proper time to be judged (3 years) and it hurts your argument as none have won a SB.

Only 4 out of 30 QB's in that time frame have won a SB. That's 13%. Now you know just how ****ing hard it is to find a good QB.

I think we need some Rain Man stats for that one, considering there were only 11 chances to win a SB in that time frame. I don't think anyone is arguing that it's easy to find one though... they're elite for a reason. The problem is that if you don't try, you're pretty much guaranteed not to find one, unless of course you hit the lottery with a Brady or find a Warner.

[OldSchool]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

I think we need some Rain Man stats for that one, considering there were only 11 chances to win a SB in that time frame. I don't think anyone is arguing that it's easy to find one though... they're elite for a reason. The problem is that if you don't try, you're pretty much guaranteed not to find one, unless of course you hit the lottery with a Brady or find a Warner.

There are maybe only 4 elite QBs in this league right now and a couple who are fringe/getting there:

Peyton Manning
Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees

You could make an argument for Philip Rivers too, as much as I don't like him. I'll admit that he looked very damn good last year.

Nearly there:

Russel Wilson

That's it. Then you have a bunch of good to very good QBs, some more unproven young guys who show promise but aren't there yet or haven't played enough games (or any), some young guys who look like they're going to suck or be average at best.

Then you have Chad Henne, Brian Hoyer, Shaun Hill, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Matt Schaub. Those are, realistically, the only QBs in the league that you have absolutely no chance at winning a Superbowl with, now or in the future, unless you have the 2000 Raven's defense. Judging from pre-season play, I'm on the verge of throwing EJ Manuel's name in there too.

In short, this league has a bunch of good QBs, very few elite QBs, and a handful of guys who shouldn't be starting.

[ndws]

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By

Dawson
Unitas
Plunkett
Theisman
Williams
Hostetler
Young
Favre
Warner
Dilfer
Johnson
Brees

That's 13 out of 48 (27%), a fair number of exceptions to the rule. More than 1 in 4 SBs have been won by QBs who were not playing for the team that drafted them.

to get even more technical, you could add Elway and Eli to that list I suppose.

[Sure-Oz]

Ryan Mallet to the Rams for con pick

[Mr. Laz]

in before the thread gets locked for max posts


nobody puts the 1st round QB zealots in the corner ........... nobody.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by OldSchool

There are maybe only 4 elite QBs in this league right now and a couple who are fringe/getting there:

Peyton Manning
Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees

You could make an argument for Philip Rivers too, as much as I don't like him. I'll admit that he looked very damn good last year.

Nearly there:

Russel Wilson

That's it. Then you have a bunch of good to very good QBs, some more unproven young guys who show promise but aren't there yet or haven't played enough games (or any), some young guys who look like they're going to suck or be average at best.

Then you have Chad Henne, Brian Hoyer, Shaun Hill, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Matt Schaub. Those are, realistically, the only QBs in the league that you have absolutely no chance at winning a Superbowl with, now or in the future, unless you have the 2000 Raven's defense. Judging from pre-season play, I'm on the verge of throwing EJ Manuel's name in there too.

In short, this league has a bunch of good QBs, very few elite QBs, and a handful of guys who shouldn't be starting.

Yeah, that's the definition of elite. And those four guys combine for 8 appearances in the past 10 SBs (and 9 in 11... and 10 in 13). Only 3 of the last 10 SBs didn't include one of those four guys (and the Steelers happened to win two of them). So, they're pretty important.

Of course, they don't grow on trees, but again, if you don't try, you'll probably never find one.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

in before the thread gets locked for max posts


nobody puts the 1st round QB zealots in the corner ........... nobody.

Hey, if some people have enjoyed what the Chiefs have done for the past 3 or 4 decades, good for them. I'd rather watch good football, but I'm just weird like that.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Hey, if some people have enjoyed what the Chiefs have done for the past 3 or 4 decades, good for them. I'd rather watch good football, but I'm just weird like that.

[Chiefnj2]

You guys are cruel. Why would anyone want to draft a first round QB only to dash his dreams by playing for KC? Fisher, Allen and Fulton are synonomous with herpes, syphillis and crabs amongst collegiate QBs.