Football Against the spread NFL week 13

TripleThreat · 11-30-2016, 12:29 PM

So I want to bet again this week, have a little money to play with after picking KC last week straight up with no points which gave me extra $$....

Any games stand out that look like sure winners?

The games I like, and call me out and tell me im crazy if I am, but leave a good point so I can think about why its a bad choice.. These are the games im probably leaning towards.

Bolded games are the teams I want to bet for.

Denver -5 vs @Jax +5... I want to pick Denver here, lost to us in a nail bitter last week, may have something to prove against a struggling JAX team? Only problem for me in this game is the short week, but again, i like it.

KC +3 1/2 vs @ Atlanta - 3 1/2... I want to do what I did last week and pick KC to win straight up no points for extra cash... Honestly I know alot here are doubting us vs this Atlanta offense, but this year they have shown in some games to completely fold like they did last year on offense, and I could see us playing them HARD this week with all the hype surrounding there offense, and more games than not, we are ALWAYS in position to win our games for the last 2 seasons, so its hard to picture any type of a blow out, maybe take the points?

SF +1 1/2 vs @Bears -1 1/2... I actually can see the 49ers winning this one. Barkley is in, and kaepernick looks like hes actually playing pretty well for there team. It seems there defense is the bigger issue over there, without having weapons on offense. To me, this is kaepernick vs Barkley, and I can see kaepernick out performing Barkley, with Alshon suspended and Chicagos star linebacker suspended....

NYG + 6 vs @Pitt - 6.. This is one of my more favorites.... Sure, you can never count pittsburgh out, but the giants are HUNGRY, and they need this one to stay in the picture for the playoffs in a tight race going on over there for the wildcard spots...

PHI -1 vs @ Cin +1.... I like this one alot like NYG, but similar story. I always have a hard time betting with rookie QB's like Wentz because sometimes you just dont know what you are gonna get that day with a rookie QB in the NFL...

TLDR: I bolded the teams that I think will win, lemme know which ones im wrong on and why if possible, or if theres a different game I didnt list that seems like a sure-winner.

BlackHelicopters · 11-30-2016, 01:04 PM

Always take the ' dogs. NFL. Is an underdog league.

TripleThreat · 11-30-2016, 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theelusiveeightrop

Always take the ' dogs. NFL. Is an underdog league.

Yeah but problem is which underdogs lol. They win sure but it ain't 50/50

**Nzoner** · 12-01-2016, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TripleThreat

Yeah but problem is which underdogs lol. They win sure but it ain't 50/50

I've always liked home dogs,that said I wouldn't touch that Jax game this weekend especially if Lynch ends up at QB for the donks as Simien is in a walking boot.

TripleThreat · 11-30-2016, 05:35 PM

Weird I forsure thought we had some betters on here

Kidd Lex · 11-30-2016, 05:46 PM

Taking all road teams will often leave you broke and broken hearted. If I were you I'd stick with your picks and do a 4 team teaser to give you some additional breathing room. Taking the Chiefs and the money line is a fun one, but I'd wait for the line to move to 4 so you get a slightly better payout. Good luck.

Pointer19 · 11-30-2016, 05:47 PM

I'm not lying when I say that I'd bet against the Chiefs. If we win, you're happier than a clam and can claim that your bad luck let you buy our victory. If we lose, you have a little cash consolation prize.

bsp4444 · 11-30-2016, 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointer19

I'm not lying when I say that I'd bet against the Chiefs. If we win, you're happier than a clam and can claim that your bad luck let you buy our victory. If we lose, you have a little cash consolation prize.

I follow this philosophy, as well.

JD10367 · 11-30-2016, 07:43 PM

The point spread is high, but...

RINGLEADER · 11-30-2016, 11:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JD10367

The point spread is high, but...

I see what you did...

ModSocks · 11-30-2016, 06:03 PM

I have a weekly "Pick 'Em" i participate in at a local community store (shhhhh).

You just pick the winner straight up. Person who got the most right wins the pot.

It's honestly surprising how difficult it is to pick a straight up winner and get it right every time.

50-100 People per week, all @ $10 each bet....can make some good money any given week, but **** it's hard to get them all right. It's rare that someone gets them all right. Most often people get 2-3 wrong and end up splitting the pot. I haven't won in two years

Lots of 2nd place though....but that doesn't yield much.

Earthling · 11-30-2016, 06:20 PM

Broncos -5 is probably a good bet but rooting for Denver is hard to do.

I think Pitt at home covers the 6 against NYG. Big Ben is such a beast at home. Should be a great game.

I like Chiefs plus the points. (for a small bet) The other games, toss a coin.

Why Not? · 11-30-2016, 11:47 PM

not a huge fan of the lines this week. A lot of these are just not that inviting. I like a bunch of overs this week. Including all 4 late afternoon games. I think this is a good week for teasers

Just tease the underdogs

Jags +11
Chiefs+9.5
Niners +7.5
And one favorite, Steelers pick em.

Gonna be in Vegas this weekend so I better come up with some good picks for myself.

TripleThreat · 12-01-2016, 12:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Why Not?

not a huge fan of the lines this week. A lot of these are just not that inviting. I like a bunch of overs this week. Including all 4 late afternoon games. I think this is a good week for teasers

Just tease the underdogs

Jags +11
Chiefs+9.5
Niners +7.5
And one favorite, Steelers pick em.

Gonna be in Vegas this weekend so I better come up with some good picks for myself.

I like this, thanks. Only thing with teasers though is all it takes is 1 game to mess it all up lol but the plus points u talk about make sense, just would hate to see 30 -21 game ruin it all

Why Not? · 12-01-2016, 05:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TripleThreat

I like this, thanks. Only thing with teasers though is all it takes is 1 game to mess it all up lol but the plus points u talk about make sense, just would hate to see 30 -21 game ruin it all

Oh yeah. That's the thing about parlays and teasers. They seem so tantalizingly easy. I remember the first time I went to Vegas at 23 and saw a parlay card. I thought, "6 to 1 payout and all I have to do is pick 3 games? Easy $". Hahahah. As the saying goes, gambling lessons don't come cheap. But it is really fun to hit a teaser or a parlay so I bet a couple every week(not major funds or anything). Then I single bet every game. So far I'm 15 games over .500 on singles. I am definitely not that on parlays or teasers. Lol

11-30-2016, 12:29 PM	Topic Starter
TripleThreat Veteran Join Date: Oct 2013 Casino cash: $5488253	Against the spread NFL week 13 So I want to bet again this week, have a little money to play with after picking KC last week straight up with no points which gave me extra $$.... Any games stand out that look like sure winners? The games I like, and call me out and tell me im crazy if I am, but leave a good point so I can think about why its a bad choice.. These are the games im probably leaning towards. Bolded games are the teams I want to bet for. Denver -5 vs @Jax +5... I want to pick Denver here, lost to us in a nail bitter last week, may have something to prove against a struggling JAX team? Only problem for me in this game is the short week, but again, i like it. KC +3 1/2 vs @ Atlanta - 3 1/2... I want to do what I did last week and pick KC to win straight up no points for extra cash... Honestly I know alot here are doubting us vs this Atlanta offense, but this year they have shown in some games to completely fold like they did last year on offense, and I could see us playing them HARD this week with all the hype surrounding there offense, and more games than not, we are ALWAYS in position to win our games for the last 2 seasons, so its hard to picture any type of a blow out, maybe take the points? SF +1 1/2 vs @Bears -1 1/2... I actually can see the 49ers winning this one. Barkley is in, and kaepernick looks like hes actually playing pretty well for there team. It seems there defense is the bigger issue over there, without having weapons on offense. To me, this is kaepernick vs Barkley, and I can see kaepernick out performing Barkley, with Alshon suspended and Chicagos star linebacker suspended.... NYG + 6 vs @Pitt - 6.. This is one of my more favorites.... Sure, you can never count pittsburgh out, but the giants are HUNGRY, and they need this one to stay in the picture for the playoffs in a tight race going on over there for the wildcard spots... PHI -1 vs @ Cin +1.... I like this one alot like NYG, but similar story. I always have a hard time betting with rookie QB's like Wentz because sometimes you just dont know what you are gonna get that day with a rookie QB in the NFL... TLDR: I bolded the teams that I think will win, lemme know which ones im wrong on and why if possible, or if theres a different game I didnt list that seems like a sure-winner.
Posts: 2,727

11-30-2016, 01:04 PM	#2
BlackHelicopters Spiraling down the Drain Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Dante's Ninth Circle Casino cash: $2520588	Always take the ' dogs. NFL. Is an underdog league. __________________ "We're both part of the same hypocrisy, Senator, but never think it applies to my family." "Fredo. You are my brother, and I love you. But never take sides against the Family again. Ever." 2019 Adopt a Chief - Travis Kelce #87
Posts: 31,708

11-30-2016, 05:35 PM	#5
TripleThreat Veteran Join Date: Oct 2013 Casino cash: $5488253	Weird I forsure thought we had some betters on here
Posts: 2,727

11-30-2016, 05:46 PM	#6
Kidd Lex Veteran Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $4792608	Taking all road teams will often leave you broke and broken hearted. If I were you I'd stick with your picks and do a 4 team teaser to give you some additional breathing room. Taking the Chiefs and the money line is a fun one, but I'd wait for the line to move to 4 so you get a slightly better payout. Good luck. __________________ You are not your job, you're not how much money you have in the bank. You are not the car you drive. You're not the contents of your wallet. You are not your ****ing khakis. -Fight Club
Posts: 4,159

11-30-2016, 05:47 PM	#7
Pointer19 Veteran Join Date: Aug 2015 Location: Oak Harbor, WA Casino cash: $5770900	I'm not lying when I say that I'd bet against the Chiefs. If we win, you're happier than a clam and can claim that your bad luck let you buy our victory. If we lose, you have a little cash consolation prize. __________________ Dilly Dilly!
Posts: 2,579

11-30-2016, 07:43 PM	#9
JD10367 Cheaterlover* Join Date: May 2009 Location: RI Casino cash: $10010716	The point spread is high, but... Attached Thumbnails
Posts: 12,916

11-30-2016, 06:03 PM	#11
ModSocks Needs more middle fingers Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: San Diego Casino cash: $4104563	I have a weekly "Pick 'Em" i participate in at a local community store (shhhhh). You just pick the winner straight up. Person who got the most right wins the pot. It's honestly surprising how difficult it is to pick a straight up winner and get it right every time. 50-100 People per week, all @ $10 each bet....can make some good money any given week, but **** it's hard to get them all right. It's rare that someone gets them all right. Most often people get 2-3 wrong and end up splitting the pot. I haven't won in two years Lots of 2nd place though....but that doesn't yield much. __________________ Life is like a dick. Sometimes it gets hard for no reason, but it can't stay hard forever.
Posts: 64,512

11-30-2016, 06:20 PM	#12
Earthling MVP Join Date: Apr 2001 Casino cash: $10008447	Broncos -5 is probably a good bet but rooting for Denver is hard to do. I think Pitt at home covers the 6 against NYG. Big Ben is such a beast at home. Should be a great game. I like Chiefs plus the points. (for a small bet) The other games, toss a coin. __________________ AND SOMETIMES IT'S NOT SO EASY ESPECIALLY WHEN YOUR ONLY FRIEND TALKS SEES LOOKS AND FEELS LIKE YOU AND YOU DO JUST THE SAME AS HIM -Jiimi Hendrix
Posts: 5,995

11-30-2016, 11:47 PM	#13
Why Not? In Search of a Life Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Kansas Casino cash: $2948994	not a huge fan of the lines this week. A lot of these are just not that inviting. I like a bunch of overs this week. Including all 4 late afternoon games. I think this is a good week for teasers Just tease the underdogs Jags +11 Chiefs+9.5 Niners +7.5 And one favorite, Steelers pick em. Gonna be in Vegas this weekend so I better come up with some good picks for myself.
Posts: 21,787