ESPN: Why Non-Elite QB's get elite contracts

[OnTheWarpath15]

Pretty interesting read from Jim Trotter at ESPN. We're next.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11...lite-contracts

Are you kidding?!

The Cincinnati Bengals signed quarterback Andy Dalton to a six-year extension Monday that could max out at $115 million. The fourth-year pro led the Bengals to nine, 10 and 11 wins his first three seasons and became the first quarterback to take the franchise to three consecutive playoff appearances. But that's also where the flame burned out. Dalton wasn't just bad in those games, all defeats. He was awful. He threw for only one score. He committed seven turnovers -- six of them interceptions. He led the offense to a total of two touchdowns, one more than Cincinnati's defense scored.

They did what?!

In January, the Chicago Bears signed Jay Cutler to a contract with a possible value of $126.7 million with $54 million in virtual guarantees. In March 2013, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo signed an extension potentially worth $108 million that included a reported $55 million in virtual guarantees. Those figures approach the $110 million -- including $62.5 million guaranteed -- that Aaron Rodgers can earn from the Green Bay Packers by virtue of the extension he signed in April 2013.

Rodgers is a former league and Super Bowl MVP. Cutler is eight games over .500 for his career and has gone to the playoffs once, where he's 1-1. Romo is 1-3 in the postseason.

They got how much?!

In July 2013, Detroit Lions signal-caller Matthew Stafford signed an extension that averages $18 million a season and includes nearly $42 million in virtual guarantees; the sixth-year pro is 0-1 in the postseason. That same month, the Atlanta Falcons' Matt Ryan inked a contract with an average of $20.75 million per year -- second only to Rodgers. Ryan is 60-34 in the regular season but 1-4 in the playoffs, with nearly as many interceptions (seven) as touchdowns (nine).

If those deals made your jaw drop, brace yourself, because the trend won't end anytime soon. Kansas City's Alex Smith, Philadelphia's Nick Foles, Carolina's Cam Newton and St. Louis' Sam Bradford all will be up for new deals in the next year or two. Their aggregate postseason record is 1-4.

The premium placed on quarterbacks has never been greater than it's been in the past decade. The league's emphasis on protecting and reducing contact against receivers has opened up the passing game, making for even more of a quarterback-driven league. Front-office personnel and coaches subscribe to the belief that you need a quality starter to consistently compete for a title. But since the pool of qualified talent is so shallow, they're willing to pay average or slightly-above-average quarterbacks as if they're elite.

"Teams are just afraid to say, 'Let's start again, because we literally do not have a legitimate chance to win a Super Bowl with the quarterback that we have,'" said one club president, who was among a dozen personnel people, executives and coaches who spoke for this story on the condition of anonymity. "They'd rather have an average to above-average quarterback than wait to get a great quarterback. I think it's more than fair to say that the fear of the unknown is greater than the fear of the known."

Others contend these personnel decisions have more to do with history than fear. Only 28 of the 151 quarterbacks drafted from 2000 to 2010 went on to start for at least 2½ seasons. That 81 percent failure rate speaks to why many franchises are more inclined to ride with what they have than possibly die with the unknown. They believe if they surround the quarterback with the right pieces, the whole will be greater than the individual parts.

Consider the Cowboys. When Romo signed his extension, he had led Dallas to only one playoff win in nine seasons (seven as the primary starter). Still, owner Jerry Jones signed him to a deal that included payouts of $40 million over the first two seasons. Jones sold the signing by pointing out that Romo was 55-38 as a starter and could lead the Cowboys on a postseason run with a few upgrades around him. Instead, Dallas has been stuck in that murky area between being just good enough to compete for a playoff spot and not being bad enough to land near the top of the draft, where the odds of finding a franchise quarterback are greater.

Some argue that's where the Bears are with Cutler. For every reason to re-sign him, there seemingly was an argument to let him walk as a free agent. Since joining the Bears in 2009, he has thrown for 101 touchdowns, 13th-most in the league; but his 75 interceptions are more than all but four players during that time. He has won 39 of his 67 starts for Chicago, but he also missed six games in 2011 and five games in 2013 because of injury. The Bears have had only one losing season since Cutler's arrival, but also have made just one playoff trip. That was in the 2010 season, when Cutler won in the divisional round but sat out nearly all of the second half of the NFC Championship Game with a knee injury.

The decision to re-sign Cutler wasn't made by the Bears in a day, a week or a month. It was made over two years, beginning the day that Phil Emery was hired as general manager. The longtime personnel man methodically evaluated the polarizing Cutler, extensively studying his three seasons with the Broncos and first three years with the Bears. He looked at the talent around Cutler, the constant turnover in play-callers, the ability to make plays with his arm strength even as the pocket dissolved around him. Emery said nothing publicly but had a pretty good idea going into last season that Cutler was his guy.

Backup Josh McCown's strong performance subbing for the injured Cutler elicited calls to re-sign the journeyman but didn't sway Emery. During a four-game stretch as the starter late in the 2013 season, McCown had nine touchdown passes against one interception and posted three consecutive games of at least 348 yards passing with a 102.4 passer rating. When Cutler was healthy enough to return, many fans called for first-year coach Marc Trestman to stay with the hot hand. A national media outlet even reported that some Bears veterans wanted Cutler to remain on the sideline.

But Emery's beliefs about Cutler's mental and physical toughness were affirmed in his first game back. After throwing two first-half interceptions, including a pick-six that gave the last-place Browns a 10-3 lead, Cutler stared down the Cleveland defense and silenced some critics by leading the Bears 66 yards in four plays, the last a 5-yard touchdown pass to Brandon Marshall. Then with the Bears trailing by seven in the fourth quarter, he threw a 45-yard touchdown pass to Alshon Jeffery to tie the score and a 4-yarder to Earl Bennett to take the lead for good in the Bears' 38-31 victory.

That was the icing for Emery, who liked that Cutler was at his statistical best last season when games mattered most, posting a 102.7 fourth-quarter passer rating while throwing nine touchdown passes -- six when the score was separated by seven points or fewer. Cutler also threw for 16 scores and only three picks inside opponents' 20-yard line. Cutler, who at 31 is four years younger than McCown and has a significantly greater arm, appeared ready to blossom under Trestman's tutelage.

Still, even if Emery wanted to go in another direction, what were the acceptable options? Knowing that a clear majority of the quarterbacks drafted from 2000 to 2010 failed to pan out, could he realistically anticipate getting a difference-maker at No. 14, where the Bears were drafting? McCown might've been good enough to help them challenge for a playoff spot, but nothing in his history shows he can lead a team to a championship. So Emery went with the younger, more physically talented player with greater upside. He banked on the known over the unknown, which shouldn't have been surprising considering 26 personnel people and coaches identified only five Tier 1 (elite) quarterbacks among the 32 projected starters in a recent poll conducted by ESPN Insider's Mike Sando. Ten others received Tier 2 status, which means more than half the league's starters are considered average or worse.

In today's NFL, teams seem ready to settle for quarterbacks who won't lose games rather than ones who win games. It's a subtle, yet significant, distinction. When they get a player who can manage games, they're willing to potentially compromise their salary cap by paying top dollars for non-elite performers. The $13 million difference between Cutler's average salary and what McCown received from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in free agency could be the difference between reaching the playoffs and competing for a title.

As one general manager noted, two or three other "damn good football players" could have been signed for that $13 million. Is it worth spending so much more on one position, even if it's the most important one on the field?

Whether the trend of handsomely compensating QBs who are unproven in the postseason continues will likely depend largely on how Ryan, Romo, Cutler, Stafford and Dalton fare.

"In the future, you may see guys just walk away from quarterbacks that look pretty doggone successful but haven't gotten it done in the postseason," the GM said. "You're going to have to look at what signing him does to your salary cap going forward, and you're going to have to decide what type of talent you're going to have around that guy -- or not be able to have around that guy. We're not just in the business to pay players; we're in the business to win championships. If it gets too crazy, you just may have to walk away."

[chiefzilla1501]

Here's the thing... next year, Alex Smith is going to have to earn whatever money he makes. He's going to have some patchiness on the o-line, little receiver help, and probably an average defense even if they improve. I don't see any problem with this being a trial year. If he does well even under these circumstances, it's actually worth exploring something longer-term even if he's not exactly young.

Here's the thing that I continue to get stuck on. I wasn't impressed with his first 9 games. I was the first to criticize his ability to close games in the regular season. But so far, he has played outstanding in 2 of his 3 playoff games in ways nobody expected of him. Strangely, he has the highest passer rating of any current QB in the playoffs. Maybe there's something to that. Or maybe it's just too small a sample size.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by Count Zarth

Their teams drafted them.

I know I'd love a Chiefs QB strongly if we ever did that.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by O.city

The Chiefs are in a great position to buck this trend though. Smith is upped thru this year, just let it play out. It may ruffle some feathers with Smith (want a bigger deal/play better) but it's the way to go.

Sign Houston and Berry, get Murray or Bray ready to play next year and move on or tag Smith.

Murray?

You can't be serious.

And Smith will never play under a tag.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Again, according to you.

People who do this for a living think he is.

I'm going to bed. If you're so expense that you can't understand that you have the best odds with an elite QB, decent odds with a Tier 2 QB and pretty poor odds with everyone else, I don't know what to tell you.

The farther down that list you go, the harder it's going to be to win anything of substance.

Pussy.

[DTLB58]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

It's actually a really interesting article - and this is going to affect us very shortly.

People won't read it because they assume it's a attack piece on Alex.

The last paragraph says it all. Is this QB (Smith) we are looking at signing to a mega deal, good enough to tie up all that money? Where we could be using it on other players to surround maybe a Bray or Murray?

[DTLB58]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Me too, that's why I posted it.

GM's are too chickenshit to admit they can't win the Super Bowl with the guy they have and refuse to take a chance on being great.

Like maybe taking a chance on some like a Bray with his arm who could turn into a Favre, but we will never know because the safer bet is with Alex.

[DTLB58]

Originally Posted by Count Zarth

Joe Flacco won a Super Bowl.

If you have a guy that can get you 10 wins consistently every year, sign him.

And before the homers come in here, Alex Smith did not get the Chiefs 10 wins last year.

You can't have it both ways. If he was the QB on a 2 win team he would get the blame.
And you're right he didn't get them 10 wins, it was 11!

[DTLB58]

Well if everyone else in the NFL thinks Alex sucks and his only support is in KC, then what leverage does he have in contract talks? Where else is he going to go? Who else would want his style of play? What other coach would he want to play for other than Reid's offense? And really at this point, I think KC is going to be the highest bidder for his services because of his style and relationship working with Reid.
I think if the Chiefs really want him they have the upper hand here. Even if he has a good season, he can threaten to leave but both parties know that he would benefit best staying.
And it doesn't hurt that the Chiefs have 3 QB's in the pipeline.

[007]

Originally Posted by DTLB58

You can't have it both ways. If he was the QB on a 2 win team he would get the blame.
And you're right he didn't get them 10 wins, it was 11!

Nope. 10. He sat at San Diego.

[MahiMike]

I'm starting to think that Houston gets A. Smith's money. We may actually draft a 1st round QB next year.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by MahiMike

I'm starting to think that Houston gets A. Smith's money. We may actually draft a 1st round QB next year.

I doubt we draft a 1st round QB.

And it looks like next year will be a good pass-rushing draft...

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by MahiMike

I'm starting to think that Houston gets A. Smith's money. We may actually draft a 1st round QB next year.

They'll let Houston walk long before they let Smith go. Prepare yourself.

[Mav]

Originally Posted by Guru

Nope. 10. He sat at San Diego.

Not sure if serious. We lost that game......

[Mav]

Originally Posted by MahiMike

I'm starting to think that Houston gets A. Smith's money. We may actually draft a 1st round QB next year.

He may get that money. Alex will probably get halis money. Ford and houston will be killing qbs for years to come

[Sandy Vagina]

People worry too much about the money of players. Just enjoy the game for what it is, and don't get all hot and bothered about shit you have zero control over.