Chiefs 6-10 Team with Chase Daniel

Prison Bitch · 12-28-2014, 05:15 PM

Someone at the game today made a comment that we should play Chase Daniel next year and "get rid of that clown Smith". Like always, I wanted to see what the data suggests.

We have almost no sample size for Daniel as he's played 2 games. We have a large sample size for Alex though. QB rating is extremely correlated to wins in the NFL. The average rating is 84: a team can expect an additional win (or loss) moving approximately 6 points from the median. Alex had a 93 rating and Daniel had a 75 rating today. That's an implied swing of 3 full games if we assume static performance.

While there is no way to know if Daniel would perform differently over the course of a season, it's doubtful any teams (or our own coaching staff) believe he could. Else, he'd be picked up as a starter. Whether Chiefs fans see any value finishing 9-7 vs 6-10 if you miss the playoffs regardless is another discussion.

**Bowser** · 12-28-2014, 05:23 PM

You'd be hard pressed to convince me that Chase couldn't do anything Alex did this season.

**Gonzo** · 12-28-2014, 05:24 PM

Nobody on any NFL team is more popular than the backup quarterback.

King_Chief_Fan · 12-28-2014, 05:25 PM

Any qb can play this offense.
Any claim to fame about Daniel in this offense is basically reeruned. 5 visits to the red zone and 1 TD.
Nothing to crow about for Daniel other than he can fill in adequately for this teams game manager.

**TimBone** · 12-28-2014, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bowser

You'd be hard pressed to convince me that Chase couldn't do anything Alex did this season.

I agree with this mostly. The one exception is the Buffalo game. I think Smith won that game for us. It was the perfect game for his non turnover and risk averse nature paid off huge.

Prison Bitch · 12-28-2014, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bowser

You'd be hard pressed to convince me that Chase couldn't do anything Alex did this season.

I'm not convincing anyone of anything, I'm simply posting the data.

If you believe Chase Daniel could run a full season with a 93 rating though, I'll find that extremely doubtful and nobody in the League would likely agree.

**Bearcat** · 12-28-2014, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gonzo

Nobody on any NFL team is more popular than the backup quarterback.

Well, for Packers fans, I think it's...
Favorite player: Aaron Rodgers
2nd favorite player: One legged Aaron Rodgers

Sannyasi · 12-28-2014, 05:29 PM

Daniel didn't have a very good game, but I do think its hard to step in and play at a high level when you don't even know you are starting until a few days before the game.

**Bowser** · 12-28-2014, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TimBone

I agree with this mostly. The one exception is the Buffalo game. I think Smith won that game for us. It was the perfect game for his non turnover and risk averse nature paid off huge.

I remember that Buffalo game being won by fantastic play out of Ron Parker, only to see him get turned to burnt toast the rest of the season. I honestly have no memory of Alex's performance that game.

jd1020 · 12-28-2014, 05:29 PM

Daniel's first start of the year with less than a week of preparation > Smith's first start of the year with a full offseason.

stonedstooge · 12-28-2014, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sannyasi

Daniel didn't have a very good game, but I do think its hard to step in and play at a high level when you don't even know you are starting until a few days before the game.

With the limited practice days and times allowed, I wonder how many minutes of 1st team practice snaps he even got to take?

**notorious** · 12-28-2014, 05:33 PM

95% of the production for 25% the price.

Prison Bitch · 12-28-2014, 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gonzo

Nobody on any NFL team is more popular than the backup quarterback.

My thoughts too when I heard that. I figured it was probably being said here too. Alex' rating the past 4 years has been pretty stout and is probably adding 2 full wins to our season records vs an average QB.

Prison Bitch · 12-28-2014, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notorious

95% of the production.

Except not even close.

**Easy 6** · 12-28-2014, 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd1020

Daniel's first start of the year with less than a week of preparation > Smith's first start of the year with a full offseason.

Pretty much.

He has the same arm and running ability, but way more guts.

12-28-2014, 05:15 PM
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	6-10 Team with Chase Daniel Someone at the game today made a comment that we should play Chase Daniel next year and "get rid of that clown Smith". Like always, I wanted to see what the data suggests. We have almost no sample size for Daniel as he's played 2 games. We have a large sample size for Alex though. QB rating is extremely correlated to wins in the NFL. The average rating is 84: a team can expect an additional win (or loss) moving approximately 6 points from the median. Alex had a 93 rating and Daniel had a 75 rating today. That's an implied swing of 3 full games if we assume static performance. While there is no way to know if Daniel would perform differently over the course of a season, it's doubtful any teams (or our own coaching staff) believe he could. Else, he'd be picked up as a starter. Whether Chiefs fans see any value finishing 9-7 vs 6-10 if you miss the playoffs regardless is another discussion.
Posts: 87,025

12-28-2014, 05:23 PM	#2
Bowser sorta mod-ish Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: KC North Casino cash: $3381616	You'd be hard pressed to convince me that Chase couldn't do anything Alex did this season.
Posts: 100,806

12-28-2014, 05:25 PM	#4
King_Chief_Fan Praise Him Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: none ya Casino cash: $5895486	Any qb can play this offense. Any claim to fame about Daniel in this offense is basically reeruned. 5 visits to the red zone and 1 TD. Nothing to crow about for Daniel other than he can fill in adequately for this teams game manager. __________________ No Jesus No Peace Know Jesus Know Peace Ephesians 2:8-10 English Standard Version (ESV) 8 For by grace you have been saved through faith. And this is not your own doing; it is the gift of God, 9 not a result of works, so that no one may boast. 10 For we are his workmanship, created in Christ Jesus for good works, which God prepared beforehand, that we should walk in them.
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12-28-2014, 05:29 PM	#8
Sannyasi Veteran Join Date: Jan 2010 Casino cash: $9963714	Daniel didn't have a very good game, but I do think its hard to step in and play at a high level when you don't even know you are starting until a few days before the game.
Posts: 2,615

12-28-2014, 05:29 PM	#10
jd1020 In Search of a Life Join Date: Nov 2010 Casino cash: $7732645	Daniel's first start of the year with less than a week of preparation > Smith's first start of the year with a full offseason.
Posts: 24,324

12-28-2014, 05:33 PM	#12
notorious Supporter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Who knows? Casino cash: $2865884	95% of the production for 25% the price.
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