Football NFL Quarterbacks Are Leaning On The Short Pass — And It’s Not Working

cosmo20002 · 12-08-2017, 11:48 PM

NFL Quarterbacks Are Leaning On The Short Pass — And It’s Not Working

The pic they chose to illustrate the story:

Picture this common scene on a Sunday afternoon. Your team could really use a scoring drive to turn the tide. On a 3rd-and-10, before the quarterback is even pressured, he quickly throws a 2-yard pass, and the receiver is tackled a few yards later to bring up fourth down. The crowd grumbles, the offense casually jogs off the field and the punting unit comes on. Better luck next time.

Sure, once in a blue moon the offense may throw a bubble screen on 3rd-and-33 and end up with a 52-yard touchdown, like the Rams did with Robert Woods against the Giants in Week 9 this season. But that is the rarest of exceptions.

Generally, safe passes like that don’t accomplish much, and we have the data to back that up. How does that 2-yard pass on 3rd-and-10 work out? According to the ESPN Stats & Information Group, quarterback passes thrown no more than 2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage on third down with at least 10 yards to go have been converted only 10.9 percent of the time this season. On throws that travel at least 10 yards, quarterbacks have converted 38.6 percent of the time. So an offense can more than triple its conversion rate just by doing the most obvious thing when trying to move the chains: throwing the ball past the imaginary yellow line on your TV screen.

And yet despite this, NFL teams are leaning on the short pass more than ever. The same league that transformed into a passing league over the past 10 years is slowing morphing into something else: the dump-off league.

More, including all the stats and stuff:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...s-not-working/

Hog's Gone Fishin · 12-08-2017, 11:58 PM

Smith is #3 in the league in YPA.

**Ming the Merciless** · 12-09-2017, 12:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

Smith is #3 in the league in YPA.

He has a ton of yac

tk13 · 12-09-2017, 02:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

He has a ton of yac

That's Reid's entire offense. It's like saying the Golden State Warriors lead the league in scoring because they shoot a bunch of threes. Well, yeah.

RobBlake · 12-09-2017, 03:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

He has a ton of yac

He’s sucked for multiple weeks but he’s had a lot of deep to intermediate throws

chiefzilla1501 · 12-09-2017, 07:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

Smith is #3 in the league in YPA.

We are taking the whisenhunt approach in games we succeed in on offense of being brutally dink and dunk, then throwing over the top when defenses over commit the box. Good defenses will stay back, let us take our 3 yards, while not allowing receivers to roam freely deep. Despite what we did in new york, I think Pittsburgh showed the formula to beat our offense.

hitchief · 12-09-2017, 10:43 AM

Some teams need this approach if the oline is crap as a defacto running game.

Chief's are a great example of this after we lost 3 interior linemen. When we had our full compliment of oline, we were running all over people and Hunt was going to be Rookie of the Year! We lose the 3 interior guys and we can't run for s***! In the WCO, you have to be able to play action (never discussed in here cause we all know who to blame). Play action sets up a lot of the intermediate to deep throws as it holds the lLB's and SS closer to the line of scrimmage for the time it takes the wr's to get behind them.

One way to keep them all closer is to dink and dunk. Plus maybe someone breaks a tackle but at least you keep ahead of the chains. Lately we are losing or just getting back the line when attempting a run.

WhiteWhale · 12-09-2017, 12:05 PM

LOL!

Yeah, the innovation of the short passing game. It's brand new!

The takeaway here is that it's being defended well.

RobBlake · 12-09-2017, 12:25 PM

It’s all about playing to your strengths and adjusting to that teams defense. Like the pats couldn’t play a vertical scheme against Seattle as the dbs and dline was too good. Pats killed them with short throws all game.

Chief Pagan · 12-09-2017, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

How does that 2-yard pass on 3rd-and-10 work out? According to the ESPN Stats & Information Group, quarterback passes thrown no more than 2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage on third down with at least 10 yards to go have been converted only 10.9 percent of the time this season. On throws that travel at least 10 yards, quarterbacks have converted 38.6 percent of the time. So an offense can more than triple its conversion rate just by doing the most obvious thing when trying to move the chains: throwing the ball past the imaginary yellow line on your TV screen.

So you automatically convert 38.6 percent of the time you throw it 10 yards?

Or 30 percent of the time, when a receiver looks open enough to throw to, there is a 38.6 percent conversion and the other 70 percent of the time when no one is open down field the QB dumps it short?

Sweet Daddy Hate · 12-09-2017, 06:51 PM

Short passing game simile:

"My name is Marty. My ball is at 4th and 1.5 inches from a first down. Let's punt"!

**Ming the Merciless** · 12-10-2017, 02:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk13

That's Reid's entire offense. It's like saying the Golden State Warriors lead the league in scoring because they shoot a bunch of threes. Well, yeah.

didnt read the article then?

12-08-2017, 11:48 PM
cosmo20002 Debunking your bullshit Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: KC area Casino cash: $5190315	NFL Quarterbacks Are Leaning On The Short Pass — And It’s Not Working NFL Quarterbacks Are Leaning On The Short Pass — And It’s Not Working The pic they chose to illustrate the story: Picture this common scene on a Sunday afternoon. Your team could really use a scoring drive to turn the tide. On a 3rd-and-10, before the quarterback is even pressured, he quickly throws a 2-yard pass, and the receiver is tackled a few yards later to bring up fourth down. The crowd grumbles, the offense casually jogs off the field and the punting unit comes on. Better luck next time. Sure, once in a blue moon the offense may throw a bubble screen on 3rd-and-33 and end up with a 52-yard touchdown, like the Rams did with Robert Woods against the Giants in Week 9 this season. But that is the rarest of exceptions. Generally, safe passes like that don’t accomplish much, and we have the data to back that up. How does that 2-yard pass on 3rd-and-10 work out? According to the ESPN Stats & Information Group, quarterback passes thrown no more than 2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage on third down with at least 10 yards to go have been converted only 10.9 percent of the time this season. On throws that travel at least 10 yards, quarterbacks have converted 38.6 percent of the time. So an offense can more than triple its conversion rate just by doing the most obvious thing when trying to move the chains: throwing the ball past the imaginary yellow line on your TV screen. And yet despite this, NFL teams are leaning on the short pass more than ever. The same league that transformed into a passing league over the past 10 years is slowing morphing into something else: the dump-off league. More, including all the stats and stuff: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...s-not-working/
Posts: 52,592

12-08-2017, 11:58 PM	#2
Hog's Gone Fishin Fish are scared of me Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $1700477	Smith is #3 in the league in YPA.
Posts: 40,351	1 0

12-09-2017, 10:43 AM	#7
hitchief Starter Join Date: Apr 2013 Casino cash: $10005314	Some teams need this approach if the oline is crap as a defacto running game. Chief's are a great example of this after we lost 3 interior linemen. When we had our full compliment of oline, we were running all over people and Hunt was going to be Rookie of the Year! We lose the 3 interior guys and we can't run for s***! In the WCO, you have to be able to play action (never discussed in here cause we all know who to blame). Play action sets up a lot of the intermediate to deep throws as it holds the lLB's and SS closer to the line of scrimmage for the time it takes the wr's to get behind them. One way to keep them all closer is to dink and dunk. Plus maybe someone breaks a tackle but at least you keep ahead of the chains. Lately we are losing or just getting back the line when attempting a run.
Posts: 413

12-09-2017, 12:05 PM	#8
WhiteWhale Bring it on Ahab! Join Date: May 2011 Location: Doo-Dah Casino cash: $10015152	LOL! Yeah, the innovation of the short passing game. It's brand new! The takeaway here is that it's being defended well.
Posts: 14,861

12-09-2017, 12:25 PM	#9
RobBlake Banned Join Date: Aug 2013 Casino cash: $10011127	It’s all about playing to your strengths and adjusting to that teams defense. Like the pats couldn’t play a vertical scheme against Seattle as the dbs and dline was too good. Pats killed them with short throws all game.
Posts: 7,127

12-09-2017, 06:51 PM	#11
Sweet Daddy Hate Unsparing Join Date: Aug 2008 Casino cash: $10004900	Short passing game simile: "My name is Marty. My ball is at 4th and 1.5 inches from a first down. Let's punt"! __________________ 1. Merciless, severe. 2. Given freely and generously. 100% refusal to overrate 20 year Head Coaches with ZERO **ing rings as a Head Coach. CP's Official Professor of 'Dem Blues for 2019/2020!**
Posts: 77,135