*** Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository

[duncan_idaho]

The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one.

Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time?

Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository!

Royals Top Prospects, 2017

This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services.

Spoiler!

Format: POS/Name/2017 Projected Final Level

1) 3B/OF Hunter Dozier, MLB. Dozier bounced back from a disastrous 2015 campaign that had many wondering, myself included, if he was wrecked. His strong offensive performance in 2016 saw Dozier recapture the mature approach that many liked coming up, while also starting to tap into his above-average raw power for the first time.

In addition to his success at the plate, Dozier also proved he could at least HANDLE an OF spot, which could put him in the conversation for 2017 playing time at the major leagues. If the Royals DO end up trading Cheslor Cuthbert, Dozier could find a decent amount of MLB playing time sliding between RF and 3B. With Moustakas recovering from knee surgery, he likely will need more regular breaks from the field. And the streaky Paulo Orlando is just not an intriguing short-side platoon partner for Jarrod Dyson.

2) LHP Matt Strahm, MLB. Strahm just barely skates under the rookie eligibility rules for a pitcher, so he can be included here. Royals fans already got a taste of the lefty’s abilities, as he used his above-average fastball and slurve to dominate out of the pen in 2016. For him to translate that dominance to the rotation, Strahm will need to maintain his velocity (92-94) and continue to improve a changeup that flashed average at times.

If the changeup becomes a weapon he can lean on against righties, Strahm could be a very solid mid-rotation starter and fringe ToR/No. 2 type (think Danny Duffy-lite).

3) RHP Josh Staumont, AAA. This one could blow up on me and look really silly by this time next year, but I’m encouraged by what we saw from Staumont late last year. He showed significantly improved control down the stretch for Northwest Arkansas, including some impressive playoff starts, while maintaining the big-time K ability. That trend continued in the Arizona Fall League.

If Staumont’s control holds, the Royals have a guy with a plus fastball, plus-plus curve, and average change (with a slider that could develop into a real weapon as he matures). He’ll start next season at AAA and could be an addition to the MLB bullpen or even the rotation before the season ends.

4) RF Jorge Bonifacio, AAA. Boni, like Dozier, had a bounceback season in 2016 with the bat, and also played 15-20 pounds lighter than the year before, which added some nice defensive utility according to reports I’ve gotten. He now looks like a guy could provide solid/average RF production in the major leagues… Average defense paired with potential to put up a .275/.335/.450 line. While that’s not all-star level, it IS playable. Especially at pre-arbitration dollars. He’ll get another year in Omaha to refine his approach, and likely be in the mix of a 2018 mini-youth movement… unless moved for MLB reinforcements.

5) C Meibrys Viloria, Low-A (Lexington). I haven’t seen him in person, but I like the pedigree. You’ve got a lefthanded hitting catcher with the defensive ability to stick behind the plate. He was a big-bonus guy out of Colombia (nearly $500k). And his offensive performance has been highly impressive early, with a good combination of power, plate discipline, and contact skills.

He’s forever away from the majors, just now clearing rookie ball, but Viloria is the most exciting prospect KC has had at Idaho Falls since someone on this board was gushing about a 16-year-old SS tearing it up.

6) 1B Ryan O’Hearn, AAA. O’Hearn is a guy who has never gotten a lot of hype from scouts, but he continues to be a strong producer. He’s someone who likely will strikeout about 25 percent of the time at the big-league level, but has the ability to be a .500+ SLG guy. That plays. He also has shown good patience at the plate, posting above-average OBPs at every level.

Bold prediction: I won’t be shocked if O’Hearn takes over at 1B for KC in 2018/2019 and provides similar offensive production to Hosmer out of the gate. He’s probably never going to be a consistent plus average (.290+) hitter, but .270 with 25 HR is something within reach for him. He’ll get his first shot at AAA in 2017.

7) RHP AJ Puckett, A+. Puckett is a high floor, low-ceiling guy who performed about as you’d expect in 2016 after being the Royals’ first pick in the 2016 Rule IV Draft. He’s not flashy, but Puckett does profile as a solid potential back-end starter. Good fastball command and an above-average changeup are his calling cards. If Puckett finds a reliable breaking ball to put batters away, this could tick up. Great athlete, very similar to Jake Odorizzi in that regard.

8) RF Khalil Lee, Low-A (Lexington). Lee was a two-way player in HS and many viewed him as a pitcher first as a pro, but the Royals drafted him as an OF and were reward with a strong debut campaign. Lee is not a big guy, but he produced solid power numbers despite that. He’s a dynamic athlete who could contribute with power and speed.

9) C Chase Vallot, High-A (Wilmington). Vallot has an intriguing bat, with plus raw power. Got off to a great start in 16 before being sidelined and then sidetracked by injury. RH bat may be good enough to push him out from behind the plate, where he has good tools but a long way to go.

10) RHP Jake Junis and RHP Alec Mills (AAA). I'm copping out here and including both at No. 10 because they're so similar. Like Puckett, they each project as a serviceable back of rotation starter. Similar stuff and profiles, though Junis has shown a little better strikeout ability and may have a smidge more upside as a result.

Others of note:

SS/CF Marten Gasparini. Production has been bad for this toolsy player, but Gasparini has speed and pop that jump out at you. At only 19, need to be patient with him... this European signee was even less polished when signing at 16 than the typical Latin America prospect.

OF Seuly Matias. Loud, loud tools. Matias profiles as a classic RF... big-time power potential. He's a long ways from the majors but is one of the Royals' biggest bonus babies from LA.

RHP Ashe Russell. 2014 1st rounder saw his velocity disappear last year and was quickly shut down. He's intriguing one way or the other, even if he ends up as another notch in the belt of the TINSTAAPP saying.

2B Corey Toups. O'Hearn's HS teammate has been an above-average producer for an up-the-middle player. His small stature hides a surprising amount of pop. Could turn into a Mark Grudzielanek type of offensive second baseman at his peak - solid average, lots of 2Bs.

RHP Scott Blewett, LHP Foster Griffin, RHP Nolan Watson - all three have underwhelmed as pros but were drafted in the supplemental round. Stuff and projectability for each is a positive. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of them take a Cody Reed-like step forward this season and crack the 50-75 range on prospect lists. They all have the natural ability.

SS/2B Ricky Aracena - Jose Altuve-sized Aracena is a switch hitting middle infielder who can flat out run. Switch hitter with a good approach.

RHP Pedro Fernandez - I'm still a believer in his stuff, even if he is destined for the pen. Was having a nice 2016 start until injuries derailed him right after his promotion to AA.

Sirs not Appearing in this Prospect List:

RHP Kyle Zimmer. Same story, different year. The Royals are hopeful they FINALLY found the cause of Zimmer's achy shoulder. If they really did, and he can stay healthy, the talent/potential is exciting.

OF Bubba Starling. Never trust a guy named Derek.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Nut is wrong, Rosenthal is an AL closer with that arm. I'd put him in the closer role and sleepwalk thru 37 automatic saves. He +!Garcia for Moose, I'd do that.

Wrong temperament.

He gets mad when someone hits him and tries to throw the next one through a wall. He doesn't get time to settle in before all hell has broken loose.

Additionally, his heat loses movement low in the zone and his breaking stuff needs a lot of use to stay sharp because his best breaker was a curve. So in relief he can't use his off speed pitches enough to stay sharp and can't throw a quality low fastball so he's left with pumping high gas. Hitters know it so they lay off. He nibbles and ends up walking guys instead of challenging them when they know what's coming. It gets worse because his primary breaking ball now is a change and it's nearly impossible to tunnel one of those off the back of a high fastball. A high change up is batting practice so when he throws it, it's telegraphed by virtue of its location. If it's high, it's hard. If it's low, it's slow. His stuff and makeup are not a fit for the 9th at this point.

He will absolutely make a better starter than reliever if they can find him the innings to rediscover his curve and develop his change. I don't think you realize how highly regarded his secondary pitches were coming up; considered at one point to have the best breaking ball and see on best change in the system. In a system that had Martinez and a healthy Wacha at the time, that's impressive as hell.

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I like the idea. Give me Trevor Rosenthal instead of that worthless turd Adams, and I think it's a deal.


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Card fans really want to get rid of that fat ****.




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[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Because you don't.

Colon isn't nearly as polished an offensive player nor is he lefthanded (which hurts him even more as a guy with holes in his swing). Colon is a rank and file utility player who would probably settle in around 2 WAR if playing every day. Garcia is a genuine starting caliber player who could lead off or bat #2.

You're calling them the same player because they were utilized similarly but Garcia is simply a better hitter and with a grasp of the strike zone that portends sustained production. Colon's K rate is similar but it's not because he has a great feel for the zone - it's because he swings a lot and pitchers challenge him due to his minimal power. That means a lot of balls in play and very few Ks. Garcia, OTOH, forces pitchers to work around him.

Boil that down and you see it most clearly in a key offensive stat: wRC+. Greg Garcia's 111 last year suggests he's 11% better than the league average hitter; pretty damn good for a 2b who's being compared to all other positions that don't carry a defensive premium. Colon's was 58; 42% worse than league average. No, these are not the same player at all. Garcia is a much, MUCH better one.

Besides, you're not trading him straight across, you're also getting a very good #2/#3 starter in Lynn. He'd be perfect complement to Duffy as they have very different styles/stuff.

He is a genuine starting player in Hope only. Much the same way people thought of Colon 2 years ago. He is NOT as big a difference as you are making it out to be.

Your WRC+ comparison is cherry picked in from last season (where they both got limited plate appearances off the bench). Colon had his worst season as a pro, I expect that from some people in this thread, but not you DJ. You're usually much more level headed than that. Christian's wRC+ in 2015 was 93 and Greg's was 101. Not nearly a big a gap as you are making out.

Over their Careers (through the Minors) they are much closer as well. Hell in 2014 (either ones last full season) - Christian showed a 110 in AAA and Greg put up a 96. I don't look at that as such a drastic difference in player.

Sure Greg gets on base a bit more than Colon throughout his career. Colon is a bit better defensively. but again... we're not talking about swapping them straight up. We're talking about in the context of having him as a centerpiece for a trade of Moustakas... which to me is ASININE to consider when you have a similar player, similar age, and costs\control already on the roster... even with the very small difference in overall performance.

[DJ's left nut]

You say 'hope' whereas I say 'knowledge'.

I base it on the fact that I've watched him play a fair amount and despite minimal ABs in 15, he had a very similar approach in '15 as well. He was BABIP lucky in '16 and unlucky in '15 (though his xBABIP in '16 was .359 due to an outstanding LD rate; he squared the ball up a TON last year). He's not a .150 ISO hitter because he can't drive a pitch on the outer half but if you try to come inside on him, he can rope it so he's probably more along the lines of a .110-120 ISO hitter.

Based on a couple of seasons of virtually identical approach at the big league level broken up by an entire offseason (a huge factor in determining sustainability), you can combine the numbers with the eyes and come up with a fair projection.

Over 600 ABs I think you're looking at a .270/.365/.390 hitter. Based on last year's figures, that probably gets you an wRC+ in the 103-105 range which is very respectable for a 2b. It's not superstar stuff, but it's in the 2 range for oWAR. Positional adjustments and defensive acumen would then push him nearer the 4 range I previously suggested.

Again - it's not just numbers, its approach and how it translates. Colon's xBABIP last year was .307 and his real BABIP was .287; his BABIP was lower than Garcia's because it should have been, by a lot. And if he was unlucky, by xBABIP, Garcia was as well. It's a simple answer, really - a MISERABLE IFFB rate - the guy just pops it straight up a lot. He has his whole career. 16% of his ABs have ended in IFFBs for his career. Know how many of Garcia's career ABs have ended with infield pop? Zero. Ever. It's just another indicator that shows the gap in approach at the plate. Colon swings at too many pitches including pitches that he shouldn't so his hard contact rate is lower as is his number of easy outs. Those kinds of outs can't move runners and aren't likely to fall in. That's why he has a fairly low BABIP. Garcia, OTOH, is a battler at the plate and will get a pitch to put wood on at some point. If he doesn't, he'll take the walk.

The guy is simply an inferior offensive player to Garcia. You can say I'm simply hinging it on hope but the reality is that you're burying your head here. Of course I'm speculating, but that's why a savvy GM (or fan) should be doing.

And yet again - he's not the 'centerpiece' of a Moustakas trade. That's Lance Lynn. As Duncan noted, Lynn and Moustakas would probably be of roughly equal value if both were healthy and played to their normal seasons. Neither one of them are. And while Lynn's arm injury is scary, lets not act like a hitter doesn't get his power from his legs; Moustakas's ACL injury is equally scary (it's second only to a wrist injury to a hitter, IMO). Lynn for Moustakas is just about there. Garcia's a mere kicker in this deal and a very good one at that.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

Card fans really want to get rid of that fat ****.




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"In the best shape of his life...."

{Blows out quad slowly jogging around 1b}

That lazy one who sucks the penis is the reason we had to trade for Brandon Moss. He's the reason we have to move Carpenter over to 1b and play Jhonny ****ing Peralta at 3b (though Carpenter is a middling defender at 3b at best).

If he would have taken this whole 'baseball' thing seriously at any point in the last 3-4 years, he could've been a genuinely good player. The guy hit at every level coming up but he made it to the majors, convinced himself he'd 'arrived' and now it's just the annual march towards watching that out of shape bastard injure himself doing something that any normal 20 something adult could do without getting hurt.

It's not the poor play that irritates me, it's his open ambivalence towards his job. The guy was handed the starting base job for one of the top franchises in MLB and he just decided to **** off. You don't take the baton from a HoFer and proceed to wipe your ass with it. **** Matt Adams.

[siberian khatru]

Rockies are making a big push for Greg Holland, and word is they are getting close to a deal

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 25, 2017

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

Rockies are making a big push for Greg Holland, and word is they are getting close to a deal

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 25, 2017

Really? I'm not familiar with all the channels for scouting and the like, but how would they have any idea of how his recovery is going? Do they let other teams in to watch practices?

[mikeyis4dcats.]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Really? I'm not familiar with all the channels for scouting and the like, but how would they have any idea of how his recovery is going? Do they let other teams in to watch practices?

Holland is a free man, I'm sure he's letting anyone watch who can stroke a check

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Really? I'm not familiar with all the channels for scouting and the like, but how would they have any idea of how his recovery is going? Do they let other teams in to watch practices?

I thought he'd been holding workouts for teams that were interested.

The Nats seemed like a natural fit (man, what the hell are they going to do at closer?).

If they want to see Holland throw, they tell his agent "hey, you wanna let us see him throw" and it gets done. Alternatively, a lot of guys will have group workouts where everyone is invited to watch the throwing session.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I thought he'd been holding workouts for teams that were interested.

The Nats seemed like a natural fit (man, what the hell are they going to do at closer?).

If they want to see Holland throw, they tell his agent "hey, you wanna let us see him throw" and it gets done. Alternatively, a lot of guys will have group workouts where everyone is invited to watch the throwing session.

Originally Posted by mikeyis4dcats.

Holland is a free man, I'm sure he's letting anyone watch who can stroke a check

Shit. My bad. I thought he had another year. Nevermind.

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

Rockies are making a big push for Greg Holland, and word is they are getting close to a deal

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 25, 2017

Colorado is such a weird choice for a pitcher.



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[DJ's left nut]

Deal i's done.

Still think he should have gone to the nats.

[Chiefspants]

With his current velo I'm okay that we took a pass.

I wish nothing but the best for him in Denver, though!

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Deal i's done.

Still think he should have gone to the nats.

That would have been a better fit, probably.

I'm always going to remember the HDH days. God it was fun watching ****ers squirm in the batters box.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

Colorado is such a weird choice for a pitcher.



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It's probably a function of money. Like really a function of money. Like f($) kind of function of money.

Just a guess.