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Old 04-05-2017, 10:55 AM  
Chiefspants Chiefspants is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***

Chiefsplanet’s (Proposed) 2017 Season Title: One Last Ride

Midish-Season Update (Royals 51-47, 2nd Wild Card, 1.5 GB of ALC):

We're halfway through 2017, and fittingly to the Chiefsplanet's 2017 Season Title, the Royals are all-in on what will likely be one final run with the current core. While many are worried the Royals will take a 2004 style tumble after this year, the farm system is hardly the barren wasteland it was during the Baird years. To see what's in the pipeline and what we have to look forward to, check out this exceptional list and analysis that Duncan put together of our system.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0

While I had the honor of starting this thread this year, Duncan will always have a VIP pass to this OP, and can add more content at any time.

2017's Burning Questions Revisited:

1. What is the threshold between being “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline?

We're buyers, baby.

In April, I argued that it would be a wise strategy for us to sell if we were 5 GB or worse, but that Dayton would likely add supplemental pieces for us to load up for another run if we were 1-2 GB. On July 24th, the Royals found themselves in sole possession of the 2nd wild card spot and 1.5 games back of the division. In April I said the Royals might pull the trigger on someone like Alex Cobb and resign Luke Hochevar, but since the Rays are also buyers and Luke's shoulder hasn't rebounded, this prediction hasn't come to fruition. Luckily, Dayton Moore again proved much more adept and creative than me by adding Trevor Cahill (good call, Duncan), Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter in a single trade. Giving us a solid starter to compete in 2017, and two relievers whom we will control through 2019 and 2021, respectively, keeping Moore's new vision through 2019-2020 intact. Moore has hinted that the Royals will continue to pursue the right deals if they're there, so the fun may not be over just yet. While we may not have the bullets to pull in a "star" like Cueto or Zo, Moore's adeptness may yet again net us what we need for another run in October.

2. Can Gordo and Moose bounce back to 2015 levels?

In April I asked if Gordo could at least set the table at a 265/325/425 clip and if Moose could deliver damage around a 265/335/500 clip for an entire year. This season Mr. Moustakas has been the prospect that was promised, delivering at a 277/307/568 clip as of this update. Gordo, on the other hand, has put up an unbelievably abysmal line thus far. But, if there is a silver lining, it's that Gordo has performed at a 246/311/432 line since June 1st, and if he can continue to perform near that mark, he will be more than a valuable asset at the bottom of the lineup while he continues to provide the best LF defense in the league.

3. Can Ned Yost manage a bullpen?

In April, I felt that despite the poor start, Royals bullpen would ultimately be "solid" this year, but the question was whether "solid" was good enough for Ned. I argued that the Royals needed Soria to bounce back and that Ned would need to start being strategic in his L/L and R/R matchups. While Ned has still made at times baffling and frustrating decisions with his starters (such as allowing Travis Wood to try to "get the win" and still insisting on sending Hammel out for the 6th, he's mostly done a good job).

MASH: Minor/Moylan - Alexander - Soria - Herrera (Credit to C3HIEF3S for the origins of the phrase) have cemented into reliable pieces, and now that Herrera is showing signs of stabilizing, our dumping of Wood, our call up Flynn, and the acquisition of Buchter and Maurer, the Royals have the potential to enter October with one of the best and deepest bullpens in the postseason.

4. Will the Royals find a boost from an unexpected X-Factor to lift them to contention?

Cool-Whit, Boni, Mike ****ing Minor, and Alexander have come up huge thus far. Cool Whit is, incredibly, is second on the team in WAR and has more than replaced Zo's presence on the team. They, like the X-Factors on the 2014-2015 teams, have been critical cogs as we've raced back to contention, while Cool-Whit and Boni also have provided a rosier outlook for this team's future. It's worth noting that Salvador Perez and Jason Vargas has been beasts on offense and the mound (along with Sal providing his customary defensive excellence), but I am still a bit wary of Salvy's annual Yost assisted offensive drought as the team moves into August, along with Vargy regressing to his averages.

5. Can Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss be productive contributors in Kauffman’s dimensions?

Ouch, no, but the Royals shift to power-hitting in the juiced ball era looks like one that will pay off. Thankfully, Moss is showing signs of entering his seasonal hot streak where he becomes corn-fed Jesus for a month, and we'll need him hot to keep up with Cleveland down the stretch. While Jorge has been painful to watch in the majors, his scorching performance in AAA should give one a bright hope for the future. While some may disagree, I offer Moose, Hos, Gordo, and Duffy's struggles as exhibit A for why it is far too early to give up on Soler's potential.

Bonus Question - Is Raul Mondesi truly ready to be an everyday player?

Ha! Not even close. However, like Soler, his progress in AAA is incredibly encouraging. With ceilings like Lindor and floors being Esky being thrown out there, it's hard not to be excited about his future.

The Picture Forward

There are many reasons to be excited, and not only for 2017. The Royals emergence of Cool Whit, Bonifacio, and Scott Alexander, and the fact that we have pieces like Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer Cheslor Cuthbert, and Raul Mondesi until at least 2019 should leave one feeling pretty optimistic. Re-up Moose or Hos (and heck, re-sign Dyson while we're at it), and suddenly this team looks very much like one that could compete for the indefinite future.

The Royals are all in again, buckle in and enjoy the ride.

April OP:

Spoiler!

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Old 05-24-2017, 01:16 PM   #1321
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Originally Posted by thurman merman View Post
I know Holland wasn't coming back. But people are saying that, hypothetically, having Holland and Davis on this current team wouldn't make a big difference. That's where I'm disagreeing.
Is 3 more wins for the current team a huge difference to you?

Because even with that, and a good back end to the pen....this team just isn't very good offensively for that to matter much.
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Old 05-24-2017, 01:52 PM   #1322
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Seems like the team had more ability to man up and make come backs late in a ball game when they knew they had a bull pen that could keep the door open while they scraped their way back in the game stealing bases and playing small ball.
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Old 05-24-2017, 02:26 PM   #1323
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This year's offensive woes were HISTORICALLY bad.
Yes they have... but they have a track record of being bad for stretches. That's the whole point. This is not a new occurrence. But you take away our best run producer over the past couple years (Morales) and replace it with virtually nothing = historically bad month of april.

I'm shocked, I tell you.
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Old 05-24-2017, 02:28 PM   #1324
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Originally Posted by siberian khatru View Post
There's also a LOT of 20/20 going on with Holland and Davis.

Holland threw once for teams and he was awful. Lots of teams that needed BP help passed on him. Kudos to the Rockies for taking a chance, but at that time you couldn't blame anyone for saying no. Plus, the Rockies gave him a chance to close, which he wanted, and which he wouldn't get here.

Davis would've been traded last July if not for his arm problems. He had red flags sticking out of his elbow, and for the Royals to have held on to him and risk getting nothing for him in his walk year would've been a huge gamble. If it had gone a different way, Moore would've been crucified for hanging on too long despite the warning signs, for being too sentimental, etc. Davis looks 100 percent healthy right now, but let's wait until the end of the season to gauge that trade.
I would have preferred not trading Davis, but understand. What riles me is what we got in return, reminding me of what it was like being a Royals fan prior to our good run.

Other fans trying to justify why acquiring John Buck was the right move, when we all know deep down that he really does suck (see Soler).
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Old 05-24-2017, 02:29 PM   #1325
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Originally Posted by fahrenheit View Post
Yes they have... but they have a track record of being bad for stretches. That's the whole point. This is not a new occurrence. But you take away our best run producer over the past couple years (Morales) and replace it with virtually nothing = historically bad month of april.

I'm shocked, I tell you.
I'm sure Morales' .227/.286 /.381 April would've made all the difference.
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Old 05-24-2017, 02:30 PM   #1326
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Originally Posted by fahrenheit View Post
I would have preferred not trading Davis, but understand. What riles me is what we got in return, reminding me of what it was like being a Royals fan prior to our good run.

Other fans trying to justify why acquiring John Buck was the right move, when we all know deep down that he really does suck (see Soler).
How about we give Soler more than 50 ABs before we make a judgment on that, hmmm?

JFC
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Old 05-24-2017, 02:35 PM   #1327
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I'm not going to argue on the BP, but our starting pitching this year has been pretty good, outside of Hammel and Chris Young. To this point in the season, it's better than the 2015 staff.

2014: 3.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
2015: 4.34 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

2017: 3.83 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

EDIT to add: Our starting staff currently ranks #4 in the AL and #7 in all of MLB. I wouldn't call that "poor".
Our starting staff ranks that because of 2 people: Vargas and Duffy.

The other 4 guys have been poor.
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Old 05-24-2017, 02:37 PM   #1328
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Originally Posted by lewdog View Post
Is 3 more wins for the current team a huge difference to you?

Because even with that, and a good back end to the pen....this team just isn't very good offensively for that to matter much.
Sure. Three more wins puts them right in the thick of this crappy division.
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Old 05-24-2017, 02:38 PM   #1329
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Originally Posted by siberian khatru View Post
I'm sure Morales' .227/.286 /.381 April would've made all the difference.
He carried this offense when the rest of it was horrible at times. You deny this? Obviously missing the point, but keep looking the other way. Yes the offense is awful, but that doesn't give Dayton a pass on his handing away the pieces of what made this team great the pass few years. He's done as great a job disassembling it, as he did assembling.
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Old 05-24-2017, 02:39 PM   #1330
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Our starting staff ranks that because of 2 people: Vargas and Duffy.

The other 4 guys have been poor.
That is inaccurate. Karns started out rough but has looked great his last few starts. Kennedy was excellent before his injury.
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Old 05-24-2017, 02:43 PM   #1331
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How about we give Soler more than 50 ABs before we make a judgment on that, hmmm?

JFC
He was awful when he was with the Cubs. It's called a track record. He's the quintessential looks like 'tarzan plays like jane' player. He's only had 1 season in the minors where he performed really well (2014) and that was a sample size of only 200 AB's.
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Old 05-24-2017, 02:47 PM   #1332
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Miguel Almonte to start Thursday against the Yankees. Karns to the DL.

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb...152382132.html
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Old 05-24-2017, 02:49 PM   #1333
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He carried this offense when the rest of it was horrible at times. You deny this? Obviously missing the point, but keep looking the other way. Yes the offense is awful, but that doesn't give Dayton a pass on his handing away the pieces of what made this team great the pass few years. He's done as great a job disassembling it, as he did assembling.
He carried this offense at times LAST YEAR. Show me how he was going to carry this offense THIS APRIL. How much better would a historically bad offense have been with Morales' April numbers? How many wins does that translate to?

Your problem is you're living in the past. You think if you just keep the band together, everything stays the same. Consider this: The way the Royals won in 2014-15 -- with athleticism, speed, defense and a historically good bullpen -- are the elements with the shortest shelf life. We had a small window, and we took advantage of it. But that window was going to close faster than in other situations.
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Old 05-24-2017, 02:52 PM   #1334
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That is inaccurate. Karns started out rough but has looked great his last few starts. Kennedy was excellent before his injury.
Karns was awful the first 5 starts. He's been equally as good the past 4, but he was just awful to start the season, kennedy has been hit and miss... much like the way he started last year. I expect he'll pitch better over the course of the season.

The point being that in the past when this offense has been terrible, we've had other factors step up and steal wins to get us through those tough stretches.

This is a completely different team now. When we were losing, we weren't stealing bases, we weren't pitching (rotation or bullpen), AND we weren't hitting. But Most everyone here just wants to look at the hitting as being terrible. Yes, yes it was. I agree with you, but the point is that the team in the past couple seasons was so good at the other factors during those shitty stretches it allowed us to maintain in the standings. This team simply cannot do that anymore with the way the staff has been constructed (bullpen and Starting rotation).
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Old 05-24-2017, 02:55 PM   #1335
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He carried this offense at times LAST YEAR. Show me how he was going to carry this offense THIS APRIL. How much better would a historically bad offense have been with Morales' April numbers? How many wins does that translate to?

Your problem is you're living in the past. You think if you just keep the band together, everything stays the same. Consider this: The way the Royals won in 2014-15 -- with athleticism, speed, defense and a historically good bullpen -- are the elements with the shortest shelf life. We had a small window, and we took advantage of it. But that window was going to close faster than in other situations.
I show you by looking at a track record. When this team was hitting awful, Morales Kept us in games. He was single-handedly carrying us at times. You remove him from the conversation and he can't. It's called history... all the other parts (for the most part) are the exact same. He's the one thing that is missing, and guess what... when the rest go through that shitty stretch it becomes the worst batting month in team history (or whatever).

Holy crap pay attention SK, i didn't say keep the band together. I'm pointing out that this team has a history of this streakiness and the one guy that kept the train on the track is now gone. I get it, we weren't gonna keep him, please don't put words in my mouth.

I do not like the way Dayton treated the bullpen, though. That is my biggest complaint from this offseason... that and his inability to put together a system in our minors to develop pitching. But that's another conversation.
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