Chiefs vs Texans predictions

[TLO]

Chiefs 20
Texans 10

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by O.city

I really like the CB they drafted in round 1, but the starting safeties aren't great there either.

Watt is really really good, so he makes them alot better.

Yeah but Fisher and Harris should be able to neutralize Watt for the most part with LDT & Morse on Wilfork. Clowney will be limited so Stephenson and Grubbs will be fine.

Watt will make a few plays but it's not like they have a front 7 even close to that of the Chiefs.

[ToxSocks]

Hopkins vs Peters worries me.

Watt vs Fisher worries me.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by O.city

I think the Texans D is being pretty overrated here. They've got some good players on it, a transcendent player, then it seems some bit of meh.

They were a top 10, elite defense last year, with limited contributions from Clowney and Cushing. If JJ Watt remains the best all-around defensive player in the league, with Joseph again being a stud at CB, they don't need stars everywhere else to have a top 10 unit.

People are underrating, IMO, when they are consistently predicting scores in the high 20s, and we've seen several in the 30s and some even in the 40s.

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Exactly.

The Texans' offensive line is nothing special and Duane Brown is returning from injury. He's 30 years old now and will have difficulty with our pass rush. Jeff Adams, Ben Jones and Brandon Brooks are journeyman that aren't exactly world beaters.

The only guy that's even somewhat scary on their offense is Hopkins but while I'm sure he'll get his catches, the Chiefs secondary aren't going to be repeatedly burnt by him, if at all.

Watt, Cushing and Joseph are their best defensive players. Wilfork, IMO, is a question mark at his age (The Patriots don't let players go that can still play) and Clowney will play limited snaps.

It's a road game, which is always tough, but the Texans have the look of an average team this year because their QB is garbage and their run game will suffer until Arian Foster returns and even then, it's no guarantee that he'll have a great or even good season.

I expect to see a lot of two tight end sets, with Harris blocking next to Fisher.

And how would an opposing team look at the Chiefs?

Offensively, the only thing that scares you is Jamaal Charles, and he's running behind a very questionable OL that was bad last year and returns most of the same cast, swapping out one of its best players at C for a similar player at LG.

Defensively, they look great, but were extremely susceptible to the run, even against teams that weren't all that good running the football, each of the past two years (more so last year). The labeling O City placed on the Texans defense could pretty easily be placed on the Chiefs, too.

Houston is transcendant. Hali is still good but descending. They're solid at CB but there's no one there other teams avoid at all costs. The DEs are meh. The DTs, without Poe, are meh. One of the ILB spots is meh, and the other is dependent on Derrick Johnson. Same could be said of the S spots with Berry.

Derrick Johnson is in his 30s and is returning from a lower leg injury that can be devastating. Dontari Poe is their best DL, and MIGHT play on Sunday after missing the past several weeks.

Eric Berry is back but is returning from intensive cancer treatments. Physically, is he the same?

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

They were a top 10, elite defense last year, with limited contributions from Clowney and Cushing. If JJ Watt remains the best all-around defensive player in the league, with Joseph again being a stud at CB, they don't need stars everywhere else to have a top 10 unit.

That's a lot of "If's". And their QB is awful.

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

And how would an opposing team look at the Chiefs?

Offensively, the only thing that scares you is Jamaal Charles, and he's running behind a very questionable OL that was bad last year and returns most of the same cast, swapping out one of its best players at C for a similar player at LG.

What? Jeremy Maclin was one of the best WR's in the NFL last year. Travis Kelce is a Top Five, if not Top Three, receiving tight end. And even with an awful offensive line last season, Jamaal Charles had more than 1,000 yards rushing.

The offensive line will be much improved over last season. The Chiefs have a lot of weapons offensively and a coach whose schemes make up for any perceived deficiencies.

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Defensively, they look great, but were extremely susceptible to the run, even against teams that weren't all that good running the football, each of the past two years (more so last year).

The Chiefs were susceptible to the run because they lost their two best run stuffing players in the first half of game one. They didn't have any depth behind their starting ILBers, while Howard was still developing on the defensive line. Eric Berry's struggles didn't help the team, either.

Those issues should not exist this season with the return of DJ and DeVito along with depth and improvements along the defensive line.

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

The labeling O City placed on the Texans defense could pretty easily be placed on the Chiefs, too.

I disagree.

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Houston is transcendant. Hali is still good but descending. They're solid at CB but there's no one there other teams avoid at all costs. The DEs are meh. The DTs, without Poe, are meh. One of the ILB spots is meh, and the other is dependent on Derrick Johnson. Same could be said of the S spots with Berry.

I could not disagree more. Bailey, Howard and DeVito are far from "meh". Their secondary was superb last season and there's no reason to assume that they'll take a step back, especially based on their preseason performance

Brian Hoyer is not Carson Palmer.

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Derrick Johnson is in his 30s and is returning from a lower leg injury that can be devastating. Dontari Poe is their best DL, and MIGHT play on Sunday after missing the past several weeks.

Eric Berry is back but is returning from intensive cancer treatments. Physically, is he the same?

DJ show no signs of regression during the preseason. Poe is slated to play this week. Berry is a second stringer.

None of your points are logical.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Yeah but Fisher and Harris should be able to neutralize Watt for the most part with LDT & Morse on Wilfork. Clowney will be limited so Stephenson and Grubbs will be fine.

Watt will make a few plays but it's not like they have a front 7 even close to that of the Chiefs.

That whole first graf:



JJ Watt is the best defensive player in the NFL, but he's going to be "mostly" neutralized by a guy who - at his best - has been an average tackle (and who has struggled mightily with defenders who can overwhelm him with power moves, especially if combined with the ability to throw some speed/quickness moves in there) and a completely anonymous, JAG TE?

If the Chiefs were sending Jason Dunn and John Tait out vs. Watt, I'd be right there with you.

One of the finest nose tackles in the past decade is going to be handled by two guys who have a combined zero starts between them?

I'm also not ready to write off Clowney just because his snaps will be limited. He's a freak of nature who was never healthy last season. If he's healthy, he can make an impact (and I'm sure Houston will drop him in heavily on passing downs).

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

That whole first graf:



JJ Watt is the best defensive player in the NFL, but he's going to be "mostly" neutralized by a guy who - at his best - has been an average tackle (and who has struggled mightily with defenders who can overwhelm him with power moves, especially if combined with the ability to throw some speed/quickness moves in there) and a completely anonymous, JAG TE?

If the Chiefs were sending Jason Dunn and John Tait out vs. Watt, I'd be right there with you.

One of the finest nose tackles in the past decade is going to be handled by two guys who have a combined zero starts between them?

I'm also not ready to write off Clowney just because his snaps will be limited. He's a freak of nature who was never healthy last season. If he's healthy, he can make an impact (and I'm sure Houston will drop him in heavily on passing downs).

I'm sorry, I don't see Watt as superhuman. He'll make his plays but it's not as if he's going to terrorize the Chiefs on each and every snap.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

That's a lot of "If's". And their QB is awful.

The only "If" there is JJ Watt remaining an elite player, and there's no reason to believe he's anywhere close to a decline (coming off his best season as a pro). Their front 7 is Watt, Wilfork, Jared Crick (who's just as good as any of the Chiefs DEs), Whitney Mercilus, Brian Cushing, Jadaveon Clowney and Akeem Dent. That's a pretty talented unit that stacks up pretty comparably with the Chiefs front 7, to anyone who isn't a Chiefs homer. (Both are elite front 7s).

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

What? Jeremy Maclin was one of the best WR's in the NFL last year. Travis Kelce is a Top Five, if not Top Three, receiving tight end. And even with an awful offensive line last season, Jamaal Charles had more than 1,000 yards rushing.

The offensive line will be much improved over last season. The Chiefs have a lot of weapons offensively and a coach whose schemes make up for any perceived deficiencies.

Teams are not scared of the Chiefs passing game, outside of screen passes to Jamaal Charles. Why would they be? Adding Jeremy Maclin doesn't just bandaid the whole thing. Alex Smith is still a risk-averse QB. The receivers are all still incredibly questionable besides Maclin.

Kelce is good, but he has yet proven to be a game-changing TE capable of impacting a game like Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates, for example, in their prime.

YOU think the OL is going to be improved. Many Chiefs fans do. Other teams likely look at the Chiefs OL and see one proven player (Grubbs), two completely unproven guys (Morse and LDT), an average-at-best guy (Fisher), and a JAG (Donald Stephenson).

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

The Chiefs were susceptible to the run because they lost their two best run stuffing players in the first half of game one. They didn't have any depth behind their starting ILBers, while Howard was still developing on the defensive line. Eric Berry's struggles didn't help the team, either.

Those issues should not exist this season with the return of DJ and DeVito along with depth and improvements along the defensive line.

The Chiefs were a bottom 10 run defense in 2013 WITH those players. There are reasons to be optimistic, sure, but it has to show out on the field.

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

I disagree.

Obviously.

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

I could not disagree more. Bailey, Howard and DeVito are far from "meh". Their secondary was superb last season and there's no reason to assume that they'll take a step back, especially based on their preseason performance

Those guys are "meh" to fans of teams that aren't the Chiefs. Just like Jared Crick is apparently "meh" to you. But that shouldn't surprise me .... you seem to think handling the best defensive player in the NFL is not a big deal at all.

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Brian Hoyer is not Carson Palmer.

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

DJ show no signs of regression during the preseason. Poe is slated to play this week. Berry is a second stringer.

None of your points are logical.

And none of yours are written without red-and-mustard glasses.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

I'm sorry, I don't see Watt as superhuman. He'll make his plays but it's not as if he's going to terrorize the Chiefs on each and every snap.

How would you respond to a Texans fan saying the same thing about Justin Houston?

And intimating that Derek Newton and Ryan Griffin should be able to neutralize him?

[O.city]

Based on our preseason showing, I don't think the run defense is going to be as lacking as it has.

The offense should be more explosive, but if the offensive line isn't improved, it won't matter

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by O.city

Based on our preseason showing, I don't think the run defense is going to be as lacking as it has.

The offense should be more explosive, but if the offensive line isn't improved, it won't matter

I hope it (run D) is not as lacking. But that doesn't mean it doesn't still show up as a weakness on the radar of other teams.

My point, overall, is that CP has gone overboard white-washing the Chiefs' weaknesses while magnifying the weaknesses of other teams.

The offense SHOULD be more explosive. But the trigger man and the OL are still huge question marks, and should be.

[Pablo]

I would be pretty shocked and happy with a blow-out, 14+ point win. Opening on the road against a solid D isn't going to be a cake-walk by any means. I'll believe our offense is going to be leaps and bounds better than last year when I see it.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I hope it (run D) is not as lacking. But that doesn't mean it doesn't still show up as a weakness on the radar of other teams.

My point, overall, is that CP has gone overboard white-washing the Chiefs' weaknesses while magnifying the weaknesses of other teams.

The offense SHOULD be more explosive. But the trigger man and the OL are still huge question marks, and should be.

It doesn't have to be a top 5 run D to be really good and really dangerous.

And the second paragraph is always confusing to me. It's a chiefs message board and said chiefs are coming off 2 winning years in a roe, seemingly building momentum with a front office and coaching staff that, unlike previous ones here, seem to really be setting things together well.

Yet some here shake their fingers in everyones face for being that way. All the while going out of their way to be overly pessimistic and outspoken.

Like, is it personally insulting that people are excited about this franchise?
Not to single you out here, just been wondering lately.

[Mother****erJones]

This team just needs to come out with a championship focus and knock em out early. They're not scoring more than 20 points. I'd be stunned. They have no offense outside of Hopkins.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by O.city

It doesn't have to be a top 5 run D to be really good and really dangerous.

And the second paragraph is always confusing to me. It's a chiefs message board and said chiefs are coming off 2 winning years in a roe, seemingly building momentum with a front office and coaching staff that, unlike previous ones here, seem to really be setting things together well.

Yet some here shake their fingers in everyones face for being that way. All the while going out of their way to be overly pessimistic and outspoken.

Like, is it personally insulting that people are excited about this franchise?
Not to single you out here, just been wondering lately.

It's not insulting.

For me, it is frustrating, because it seems like we can't have an actual discussion right now about teams on the schedule - and the challenges they can present - without someone trying to pooh-pooh them away by pointing out that team's flaws and acting like the Chiefs have none.

If all I wanted for Chiefs talk was super-happy-fun-time-all-the-time, I'd talk to my dad (who is convinced Kim Anderson just needs time, to give you an idea of how much of a blind homer he is) and my sister (not only is she a girl, her takes are terrible). I expect more from CP than that.

But maybe spending the a drive to and from Columbia (and an entire football game with them) has made me overly sensitive to that today.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

It's not insulting.

For me, it is frustrating, because it seems like we can't have an actual discussion right now about teams on the schedule - and the challenges they can present - without someone trying to pooh-pooh them away by pointing out that team's flaws and acting like the Chiefs have none.

If all I wanted for Chiefs talk was super-happy-fun-time-all-the-time, I'd talk to my dad (who is convinced Kim Anderson just needs time, to give you an idea of how much of a blind homer he is) and my sister (not only is she a girl, her takes are terrible). I expect more from CP than that.

But maybe spending the a drive to and from Columbia (and an entire football game with them) has made me overly sensitive to that today.

It always goes both ways though. People seem to take negative stances as a personal conflict. Always seemed weird to me.