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Old 11-02-2015, 05:00 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***



Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:
Spoiler!

Spoiler!

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-17-2015 at 09:49 AM..
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Old 12-06-2015, 09:04 PM   #991
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Old 12-06-2015, 09:17 PM   #992
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
I guess I don't understand why we can't develop any starting pitching. Yes we gave up some to get Shields and Cueto/Zo but man....where are the starters? And they don't have to be premium arms like Zimmer or Almonte. Surely there's a Jesse Chavez somewhere (like, once in KC!). Or Liam Hendricks who I wanted to see kept in AAA not released.


Cameron has Kazmir 3/48 and the crowd has 3/42. I'll just assume it'll come in ~50. That's a helluva price to pay for not developing any starters.
Meh, two of our homegrown starters have provided us with almost 700 IP over the last two seasons. Sure, it's certainly a weakness in our player development, but I'm not going to lose too much sleep when our organization has phenomenal in every other phase of the game.
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Old 12-06-2015, 09:23 PM   #993
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Cant be that many teams that have at least 3 of the 5 starters that have only been with that franchise.
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Old 12-06-2015, 09:46 PM   #994
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
I guess I don't understand why we can't develop any starting pitching. Yes we gave up some to get Shields and Cueto/Zo but man....where are the starters? And they don't have to be premium arms like Zimmer or Almonte. Surely there's a Jesse Chavez somewhere (like, once in KC!). Or Liam Hendricks who I wanted to see kept in AAA not released.


Cameron has Kazmir 3/48 and the crowd has 3/42. I'll just assume it'll come in ~50. That's a helluva price to pay for not developing any starters.
Any?

Forty percent of the likely opening day rotation will be homegrown. I'd guess that's about average. By 2017, I think you see that number at sixty percent.

The Mets and the Rays are the exception, not the rule.
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Old 12-06-2015, 09:52 PM   #995
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Not sure if this is posted before, NY Post says Royals working on keeping Chris Young and Alex Gordon, think Zobrist is gone:

http://nypost.com/2015/12/06/busy-ro...eyeing-gordon/
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Old 12-06-2015, 09:53 PM   #996
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So the trades for Shields and Cueto (both of whom made big $) and the signings of Volquez, Vargas, Young, Medlen and you cablissibly throw JGuts in there.....don't indicate at least some weakness in development?

Even Wade Davis was a starter for nearly a full year in 2013.


I also *think* Duffy is in the rotation but that's no gurantee. If they did sign Young and Kazmir then you can be assured he won't be. That's 1 starter in a small market. Just seems light
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Old 12-06-2015, 09:55 PM   #997
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Originally Posted by gblowfish View Post
Not sure if this is posted before, NY Post says Royals working on keeping Chris Young and Alex Gordon, think Zobrist is gone:

http://nypost.com/2015/12/06/busy-ro...eyeing-gordon/
I think getting priced out on Zobrist might have tightened the Royals focus on bringing Gordo back. Last year, Moore seemed genuinely shocked that Butler went so quickly (and for so much) that the Royals wasted no time bringing Morales and Rios to KC.

Originally, the Royals wanted the DH to be fluid enough to give Salvy some relief at the plate. Winter meetings last year caused the Royals to adjust to the market, and it wouldn't surprise me if that happened again this year.
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Old 12-06-2015, 09:57 PM   #998
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
So the trades for Shields and Cueto (both of whom made big $) and the signings of Volquez, Vargas, Young, Medlen and you cablissibly throw JGuts in there.....don't indicate at least some weakness in development?

Even Wade Davis was a starter for nearly a full year in 2013.


I also *think* Duffy is in the rotation but that's no gurantee. If they did sign Young and Kazmir then you can be assured he won't be. That's 1 starter in a small market. Just seems light
It doesn't really assure anything. They could easily see Young filling the role of long relief/spot starter (just like 2015).
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Old 12-06-2015, 09:59 PM   #999
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I think getting priced out on Zobrist might have tightened the Royals focus on bringing Gordo back. Last year, Moore seemed genuinely shocked that Butler went so quickly (and for so much) that the Royals wasted no time bringing Morales and Rios to KC.

Originally, the Royals wanted the DH to be fluid enough to give Salvy some relief at the plate. Winter meetings last year caused the Royals to adjust to the market, and it wouldn't surprise me if that happened again this year.
Don't remember if it was Joel Sherman, but someone on Twitter was saying that Zobrist is definitely getting 4 years. At this point I legit wouldn't be surprised if he got 4/$70 million, or even more. Not bad for a guy who is about to be 35.
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Old 12-06-2015, 10:03 PM   #1000
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Any?

Forty percent of the likely opening day rotation will be homegrown. I'd guess that's about average. By 2017, I think you see that number at sixty percent.

The Mets and the Rays are the exception, not the rule.
Cardinals for example:
Wainwright - trade
Wacha - homegrown
Martinez - homegrown
Garcia - homegrown
Free Agent 2016 - outside organization

Royals 2016
Volquez - FA
Free Agent 2016 - outside organization
Ace - homegrown
Medlen - FA
Duffy - homegrown
Young (long relief/spot starter) - FA
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Old 12-06-2015, 10:04 PM   #1001
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I always said we needed to develop a starter or two to win it all. We kind of did, but didn't. Although Ventura was a huge part of the last two years... not as good last year but he was solid in the 2nd half. Pitching costs so much you have to least develop a couple guys.
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Old 12-06-2015, 10:05 PM   #1002
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I think getting priced out on Zobrist might have tightened the Royals focus on bringing Gordo back. Last year, Moore seemed genuinely shocked that Butler went so quickly (and for so much) that the Royals wasted no time bringing Morales and Rios to KC.

Originally, the Royals wanted the DH to be fluid enough to give Salvy some relief at the plate. Winter meetings last year caused the Royals to adjust to the market, and it wouldn't surprise me if that happened again this year.
That's exactly what I told someone last night. At the beginning of the offseason I thought they'd be more inclined to go Zobrist and no way on Gordon. Now I think they go after Gordon.
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Old 12-06-2015, 10:09 PM   #1003
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Originally Posted by gblowfish View Post
Not sure if this is posted before, NY Post says Royals working on keeping Chris Young and Alex Gordon, think Zobrist is gone:

http://nypost.com/2015/12/06/busy-ro...eyeing-gordon/

Interesting. I've given up on Gordon, but nap patently KC has not.

Keeping Alex would stir a mix of emotions, but I trust the front office no matter what happens with him. How weird is that?

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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
So the trades for Shields and Cueto (both of whom made big $) and the signings of Volquez, Vargas, Young, Medlen and you cablissibly throw JGuts in there.....don't indicate at least some weakness in development?

Even Wade Davis was a starter for nearly a full year in 2013.


I also *think* Duffy is in the rotation but that's no gurantee. If they did sign Young and Kazmir then you can be assured he won't be. That's 1 starter in a small market. Just seems light

I'd be surprised if Young is NOT the swing man to start the year. Suspect Duffy gets one more chance to succeed out of the rotation, but is moved to the pen permanently if it doesn't work out this year.

Developing pitching is hard. I think Moore made those trades because his young SP didn't pan out, for various reasons. Lamb blew out. Montgomery was broken (and even the Rays couldn't fix it), etc.

They also traded some of their "closest" pieces to win a WS this year. That's a fair trade.

I'm not saying they're great. Just not shockingly bad.
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Old 12-06-2015, 10:11 PM   #1004
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I suppose we could've stood pat and had Yordano-Odorizzi-Duffy-Mobtgomery-Lamb in our rotation. And no hardware


still, we need to develop starters. DM himself called it "the currency of baseball"
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Old 12-06-2015, 10:12 PM   #1005
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Plus Almonte has really nasty stuff. Really nasty. If he can harness it at all he's going to be a weapon. And of course Zimmer. And they drafted some nice pitchers this year.

We're certainly not the Braves who have about 15 pitching prospects, but it's not hopeless either.
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