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Old 11-03-2016, 09:11 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository ***

The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one.

Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time?

Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository!

Royals Top Prospects, 2017

This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services.

Spoiler!

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Old 12-13-2016, 03:28 PM   #991
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DJ -

I would need to spend a few hours massaging the data to get to a breakdown of more advanced stats by first half/second half splits...

But if you just look at first/second half splits from 2014-16, you see crazy variance from Perez as the seasons wear on and he gets worn down.

First half/Second half Stat
.770/.626 OPS
.186/.139 ISO
.276/.230 AVG
.308/.257 OBP

And really, you see the drastic drop across the board.

In addition to those basic stats, the eye test also shows you a guy who becomes less and less selective as the season goes along. Honestly, at times he looks like he just wants to hack and get the AB over as quickly as possible.

I think more rest would allow him to carry those first half performances over quite a bit more.


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Old 12-13-2016, 03:40 PM   #992
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But some guys are just first half hitters. And when it's a guy that's as remarkably aggressive as Perez, isn't it likely that pitchers just do a better job of exploiting his aggressive tendencies as the season progresses?

There's no question that he needs more rest but as a fan of the only guy in baseball that rivals Perez in terms of being overworked - Yadier Molina - I've seen that it isn't a season long thing that tends to surface with him. Molina's first and second half splits are virtually identical and in fact his 2nd half splits tend to be better, but it's his performance shortly after those breaks (rare though they may be) that shows a spike.

These catchers that are getting flogged aren't necessarily breaking down in August anymore than they are in May. It's on consecutive start #10, 11, 12, etc.... and you can run into that just as badly early in the year as you can later on.
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Old 12-13-2016, 03:46 PM   #993
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But some guys are just first half hitters. And when it's a guy that's as remarkably aggressive as Perez, isn't it likely that pitchers just do a better job of exploiting his aggressive tendencies as the season progresses?

There's no question that he needs more rest but as a fan of the only guy in baseball that rivals Perez in terms of being overworked - Yadier Molina - I've seen that it isn't a season long thing that tends to surface with him. Molina's first and second half splits are virtually identical and in fact his 2nd half splits tend to be better, but it's his performance shortly after those breaks (rare though they may be) that shows a spike.

These catchers that are getting flogged aren't necessarily breaking down in August anymore than they are in May. It's on consecutive start #10, 11, 12, etc.... and you can run into that just as badly early in the year as you can later on.
I'd give that more credence if we started seeing Sal's first half numbers take a hit with each progressive season. ML pitches are too smart to forget that Sal swings at everything and go "It's a new year, why don't I throw this guy a 95er down the middle?"

Sal gets punished more than any other catcher in baseball (due to his size and the amount of foul balls that clip him) and his exhaustion was evident at the tail end of each of the last three seasons.
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Old 12-13-2016, 04:43 PM   #994
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But some guys are just first half hitters. And when it's a guy that's as remarkably aggressive as Perez, isn't it likely that pitchers just do a better job of exploiting his aggressive tendencies as the season progresses?

There's no question that he needs more rest but as a fan of the only guy in baseball that rivals Perez in terms of being overworked - Yadier Molina - I've seen that it isn't a season long thing that tends to surface with him. Molina's first and second half splits are virtually identical and in fact his 2nd half splits tend to be better, but it's his performance shortly after those breaks (rare though they may be) that shows a spike.

These catchers that are getting flogged aren't necessarily breaking down in August anymore than they are in May. It's on consecutive start #10, 11, 12, etc.... and you can run into that just as badly early in the year as you can later on.

This is where the eye test has to come in. If you watched him everyday, I think you'd see a guy whose approach is bad to start with and gets even worse as he gets tired/worn down.

Your point about multiple days in a row is a good one, but I think that becomes even more of a factor as the year goes on. The cumulative grind makes that even worse.

Ultimately, i think it is worth experimenting with using him at DH 1x a week to see if you can pick up those vanishing 100-150 OPS points.

The rigors of the position would likely still be a factor, but if you get a .770/.700 half split instead of .770/.620, that's valuable unless you have a bat that demands those DH abs.


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Old 12-13-2016, 04:55 PM   #995
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Thought experiment - what if you decrease the 'rest' benefit gained from sitting Perez by as little as 10% by having him take ABs as DH? Wouldn't that be enough to eliminate the benefit of his 4-5 AB's/week at DH?

Remember, hitting's often as mental as much as anything and on days that he's DHing, he's still out there looking at tape, taking swings in the cage and generally staying tuned into the game. If his days off are genuine "I will not be playing you except in the case of catastrophic injury" days off, that allows him to just unwind and mentally relax that day.

And, as anyone that's taken swings in the cage can tell you, those damn practice swings can take a fair amount out of you. I've had cage days where the next day my right leg was just gone. Now granted, I'm a stupid, stupid hitter who will load too much to try to generate power that my bitch frame just doesn't have, but hitting is still a lot of wear on your legs/back even if you're smart about it and the DH can't just go up there cold to hit. He has to take real, 'game action' caliber swings to be able to go up there and hit. Those will add up quickly just as 'dry humping' a reliever will.

A catcher playing DH is going to have 4 times a game where he goes into the tunnel and taxes those legs a bit just to get himself ready to hit. And it's the legs that you really wanted to pull back on anyway, is it not?

Like I said - if you want to rest the guy then rest him. Sit his ass down. Because if you really want to know what a fully charged Salvy gets you in August, having him DH once or twice a week may not be how to figure it out. And when I'm not convinced that he's going to be a net benefit as the DH over most replacement level hitters anyway, I just don't see the gain being worth the potential drag on his recovery times.

The 500 ABs he takes as a catcher are far FAR more important than the 100 he may take as a DH in your scenario. So nix those 100 altogether to try to maximize the return on the 500.
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Old 12-13-2016, 05:07 PM   #996
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Thought experiment - what if you decrease the 'rest' benefit gained from sitting Perez by as little as 10% by having him take ABs as DH? Wouldn't that be enough to eliminate the benefit of his 4-5 AB's/week at DH?

Remember, hitting's often as mental as much as anything and on days that he's DHing, he's still out there looking at tape, taking swings in the cage and generally staying tuned into the game. If his days off are genuine "I will not be playing you except in the case of catastrophic injury" days off, that allows him to just unwind and mentally relax that day.

And, as anyone that's taken swings in the cage can tell you, those damn practice swings can take a fair amount out of you. I've had cage days where the next day my right leg was just gone. Now granted, I'm a stupid, stupid hitter who will load too much to try to generate power that my bitch frame just doesn't have, but hitting is still a lot of wear on your legs/back even if you're smart about it and the DH can't just go up there cold to hit. He has to take real, 'game action' caliber swings to be able to go up there and hit. Those will add up quickly just as 'dry humping' a reliever will.

A catcher playing DH is going to have 4 times a game where he goes into the tunnel and taxes those legs a bit just to get himself ready to hit. And it's the legs that you really wanted to pull back on anyway, is it not?

Like I said - if you want to rest the guy then rest him. Sit his ass down. Because if you really want to know what a fully charged Salvy gets you in August, having him DH once or twice a week may not be how to figure it out. And when I'm not convinced that he's going to be a net benefit as the DH over most replacement level hitters anyway, I just don't see the gain being worth the potential drag on his recovery times.

The 500 ABs he takes as a catcher are far FAR more important than the 100 he may take as a DH in your scenario. So nix those 100 altogether to try to maximize the return on the 500.
I would be fine with that. I also know Ned Yost isn't going to rest him nearly that much. Because Ned.
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Old 12-13-2016, 05:21 PM   #997
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I would be fine with that. I also know Ned Yost isn't going to rest him nearly that much. Because Ned.
I feel your pain.

Your 26 year old backstop started 128 games behind the dish last year.

My 33 year old catcher started 145.

Honestly, I can't even wrap my head around that. ****ing guy is 33 years old and our brilliant manager started him ONE HUNDRED AND FORTY FIVE GAMES behind the plate.

Thank God for his various hand injuries over the years because without them that window-licking reerun in our dugout would've started him 140 games/season each of the last 4 seasons.

145 games.....Jesus.
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Old 12-13-2016, 05:27 PM   #998
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Old 12-13-2016, 06:20 PM   #999
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I feel your pain.



Your 26 year old backstop started 128 games behind the dish last year.



My 33 year old catcher started 145.



Honestly, I can't even wrap my head around that. ****ing guy is 33 years old and our brilliant manager started him ONE HUNDRED AND FORTY FIVE GAMES behind the plate.



Thank God for his various hand injuries over the years because without them that window-licking reerun in our dugout would've started him 140 games/season each of the last 4 seasons.



145 games.....Jesus.


If he hadn't missed 10 days with the thought bruise, I'm sure Perez would have been at 140+ again, too.


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Old 12-13-2016, 08:11 PM   #1000
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Old 12-13-2016, 11:46 PM   #1001
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If he hadn't missed 10 days with the thought bruise, I'm sure Perez would have been at 140+ again, too.


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Is that like a brain freeze?
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Old 12-14-2016, 12:01 AM   #1002
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Old 12-14-2016, 07:17 AM   #1003
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Is that like a brain freeze?


Lol. Goddam Tapatalk autocorrect.


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Old 12-14-2016, 11:24 AM   #1004
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Old 12-14-2016, 11:28 AM   #1005
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