NYT 2018 playoff simulator is up and running

[DaFace]

I know people like running scenarios with this thing (or at least I do). It's not particularly exciting with regard to scenarios where the Chiefs just make the playoffs (spoiler alert: I like our chances), but you can look at our chances for HFA, getting a bye, etc.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ture.html?_r=0

[DaFace]

Huge day today so far.

84% HFA
92% bye
92% win division
100% playoffs

So it's mostly just down to us and the Chargers.

[DaFace]

In case anyone still cares about the probabilities:

71% HFA
73% bye
74% win division
100% playoffs

Not that it's anything surprising, but it's almost entirely down to us and the Chargers now outside of some weird fringe scenarios. I'm pretty sure that, if we match their wins, we're in no matter what. That's all it comes down to.

[Coach]

So if that stimulator is correct, if LA Chargers lose on Saturday, and KC wins on Sunday, the division is already locked up on Week 16. with likehood HFA.

[O.city]

If we win Sunday and the chargers lose does that last week matter?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Coach

So if that stimulator is correct, if LA Chargers lose on Saturday, and KC wins on Sunday, the division is already locked up on Week 16?

Correct. In that scenario, we would clinch a bye. The Texans could still theoretically catch us for HFA if they win both of their games, we lose against the Raiders, and some weird tiebreaking stuff goes their way, but that's pretty unlikely.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Correct. In that scenario, we would clinch a bye. The Texans could still theoretically catch us for HFA if they win both of their games, we lose against the Raiders, and some weird tiebreaking stuff goes their way, but that's pretty unlikely.

Yeah, when I see something that says 1% or less, I usually dismiss it because it would have to be something very incredible to happen, like how KC backed into the playoffs in 2006, I believe. That odds of happening is very slim.

Of course, it wouldn't had came to this scenario had they not crapped the bed last Thursday. Yes, I still cannot get over it.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

If we win Sunday and the chargers lose does that last week matter?

If, in week 16:

Chiefs win
Chargers lose
Texans win

And in week 17:
Chiefs lose
Texans win

Then there are tiebreaking scenarios where the Texans could take HFA from us. But I think it comes down to conference record, and we appear to be the heavy favorite to win that (73%) based on the model.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ss&event=seed1

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Correct. In that scenario, we would clinch a bye. The Texans could still theoretically catch us for HFA if they win both of their games, we lose against the Raiders, and some weird tiebreaking stuff goes their way, but that's pretty unlikely.

So we truly hold our own destiny.

Perfect.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

So we truly hold our own destiny.

Perfect.

Yeah, 2-0 gets it done no matter what. 1-1 almost certainly gets it done if the Chargers lose to either the Ravens or the Broncos.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Yeah, 2-0 gets it done no matter what. 1-1 almost certainly gets it done if the Chargers lose to either the Ravens or the Broncos.

Well, I'd most prefer Baltimore doing us a solid by beating LA Chargers, and KC winning on Sunday.

Because games with Oakland is always super weird, regardless of records.

[CupidStunt]

I just ran the sim and changed up the only scenarios I see happening, and it has us or the Chargers always being the #1, and it basically comes down to next week. If we win we're virtually locked in (cannot fathom losing to OAK, period). If we and LAC both lose, we're 1. If we lose and LAC win, we're 5. I don't get HOU finishing 1 (of course, I didn't run sims where we lose 2 or the Chargers lose 2 - I don't see either happening, period).

[Coach]

Originally Posted by CupidStunt

I just ran the sim and changed up the only scenarios I see happening, and it has us or the Chargers always being the #1, and it basically comes down to next week. If we win we're virtually locked in (cannot fathom losing to OAK, period). If we and LAC both lose, we're 1. If we lose and LAC win, we're 5. I don't get HOU finishing 1 (of course, I didn't run sims where we lose 2 or the Chargers lose 2 - I don't see either happening, period).

Pretty much in Layman's terms,

Whoever wins the AFC West will most likely get the #1 seed. 2 seed still in play, but very unlikely.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by CupidStunt

I just ran the sim and changed up the only scenarios I see happening, and it has us or the Chargers always being the #1, and it basically comes down to next week. If we win we're virtually locked in (cannot fathom losing to OAK, period). If we and LAC both lose, we're 1. If we lose and LAC win, we're 5. I don't get HOU finishing 1 (of course, I didn't run sims where we lose 2 or the Chargers lose 2 - I don't see either happening, period).

If both the Chiefs and the Chargers lose the next two and the Patriots and Texans win the next two then HOU is the 1 seed, NE is the 2 seed, and we're the 3 seed. According to the ESPN Playoff thing...

[Iconic]

Originally Posted by Coach

Well, I'd most prefer Baltimore doing us a solid by beating LA Chargers, and KC winning on Sunday.

Because games with Oakland is always super weird, regardless of records.

Their not even doing us a solid, their doing themselves one as well. Ravens and Steelers are fighting for the same playoff spot right now.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

If both the Chiefs and the Chargers lose the next two and the Patriots and Texans win the next two then NE is the 1 seed, HOU is the 2 seed, and we're the 3 seed. According to the ESPN Playoff thing...

Sorry HOU is the 1 seed and NE is the 2 in this situation.