Chiefs Over/Under 9 Wins - Page 6

frozenchief · 08-24-2017, 04:06 PM

Football Outsiders goes through the whole AFC West discussing whether they will exceed their projected Vegas lines for wins. FO is one of the more intelligent websites, using real data and not just gut instinct. Their take on KC is cautiously optimistic:

Bryan: Forget the win total; what's the over/under for when Patrick Mahomes replaces Alex Smith? It's an odd situation, where a playoff team with a perfectly cromulent starting quarterback goes out and uses a first-round pick to draft his successor rather than bolster something else for a playoff run.

Andrew: Surely they don't intend to actually replace Smith with Mahomes during the season? That's no way to get your team to a Super Bowl!

Bryan: Jay Cutler replaced Jake Plummer in 2006, which turned out to also not be a way to get your team to a Super Bowl. You're probably right that the Chiefs won't make a move unless something falls apart this season, but that's a big old ticking clock in the ear of Smith.

Andrew: The Plummer-Cutler thing really irritated me at the time (and not just me), so you just made me glad we're done writing about Denver. It's definitely ominous for Smith's future to have Mahomes not only there but apparently playing very exciting football during the preseason. The Chiefs were one of my favorite teams to watch last year, with quarterback the one damp spot on an otherwise fiery outfit.

Bryan: Yeah, so far, Mahomes doesn't appear to be the next Jim Druckenmiller or Todd Marinovich, which is good for Chiefs fans and bad for Alex. This would be the second time he has lost his job to a hot up-and-coming young draft pick, too. I've got a soft spot for the guy after watching him struggle for so long on some truly terrible 49ers teams. I remember the 49ers faithful chanting that they wanted David Carr -- David Carr!! -- to enter the game to improve the level of quarterback play. No one appreciates the subtle and dangerous art of the check down!

Andrew: To be fair to Smith, he has been exactly what he was signed to be for the Chiefs: a safe quarterback who can help his head coach stabilize the franchise, keep things around him on schedule, help the younger players develop, then hand over to his successor when he becomes the guy who's holding the offense back. Everything I wrote about Chase Daniel's play in FOA 2017 (still available!) applies to Smith, except Smith is a better version of that hyper-conservative, functional passer.

Bryan: And, of course, the best way to help your conservative, functional passer succeed for your team with Super Bowl aspirations is to cut his top receiver in the middle of the offseason for no adequately explained reason. So long, Jeremy Maclin!

Andrew: Hello Travis Kelce, who was the main beneficiary during Maclin's absence last season. Kelce, those running backs, and Tyreek Hill give a lot of quality, versatility, and unpredictability around Smith, but at some point he will probably need to pass to an actual wide receiver. Right now, that guy is Chris Conley. Or Albert Wilson. Or ... wait, that's it? They could hold their wide receiver meetings in a cupboard.

Bryan: I will say this, though: for as poor as their offense looks on paper, they haven't looked bad in preseason. Yes, it's just preseason, and there are not enough grains of salt in the world to take that with, but it looks … competent!

Andrew: I found the Chiefs great fun to watch last year. As long as you can forget that Tyreek Hill the football jersey is Tyreek Hill the person, he's electrifying. Kelce is one of the best receiving tight ends in the game, and one of the few tight ends who can line up in any position, run any route, and even take a wide receiver screen 80 yards for a touchdown. Andy Reid does a lot with formations and packages to confound a defense, which often results in beautiful mismatches like Albert Wilson against Telvin Smith in deep centerfield coverage. Their running game is likewise one of the most creative in the league, and they are one of the few teams with a legitimately decent offensive line.

Bryan: Their defense, similarly, is fun to watch, if lacking the oomph or long-term success of Denver. Eric Berry is an amazing player to watch, and grouped with Marcus Peters and Ron Parker, you have a very, very good secondary. There's no more Dontari Poe -- a victim of their tight salary cap situation -- but you have very useful players like Ramik Wilson and Chris Jones to shore up the middle. Oh, and then Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, which are great assets to have in a division with at least two below-average offensive lines. I mean, there's nothing there that matches up with the best in the league at any one position, but it's a group without weaknesses.
I do have a limb I want to go out on here. With an adequate, if not amazing offense, and a solid, if not spectacular, defense, we could see NFL history made. The record for field goals in a season is 44, set by the 2011 San Francisco 49ers. And you know who their quarterback was, right?

Andrew: Alex Smith, the last time he had a highly-drafted rookie quarterback on the bench behind him.

Bryan: So yeah. I'm picking the Chiefs to go 9-7 and win the division -- a tough division, but fair. Now, what's their over/under again … ah hell, another round number. So, I have to decide if this is more likely a 10-6 team or an 8-8 team. That's a huge gap! Down with integer lines! I know they went 12-4 last season, but they didn't have to play the NFC East. I'm going to say the odds that they sputter due to a lack of receiving weapons are greater than the odds that they repeat double-digit wins, so I'm taking the under. Nasty line, this one.

Andrew: This line screams "push" like an over-caffeinated midwife, but I'm taking the over. This is the most balanced team in the division, and good enough to take wins away from all of the other good teams around them. I think they're the best of the West, in the AFC at least.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/scr...est-overunders

Hammock Parties · 08-25-2017, 10:59 AM

Appreciate the ad hominem, fellas.

BlackOp · 08-25-2017, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Every single year, people cling to this mantra.

This is the BEST Chiefs schedule I've seen, maybe, ever.

If they only win 9 games, it's because of a plane crash.

This is the deepest and most talented team the Chiefs have fielded since the late 60's.

Their only obstacle to the Super Bowl is Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.

And/or massive injuries, which they sustained last year and still won 12 games.

I agree with this...and I dont see the AFCW being the best division in football. Raiders added nothing to their defense, S. Smith has fallen off a cliff ...and they have looked bottom 5 terrible. All 3 teams have new coordinators....

KC should be at least an 11 win team...

**The Franchise** · 08-25-2017, 11:05 AM

**Ming the Merciless** · 08-25-2017, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Appreciate the ad hominem, fellas.

yeah..well..thats usually the result of people not actually having an argument. I was interested in the answer as well because personally I think maclin getting cut was a pretty big blow.

I think tyreek hill is solid starter at #2, but we will see if conley can be a starter WR in the "#1" role. Conley is 6'1" and more of a prototypical #1 IMO...so the burden will be on him to make enough plays to allow Tyreek to not draw a ton of double coverage....

I think conley is the main question mark..perhaps...

Dude started 11 games last year? Now he is #1/#2? 500 yards receiving...last season

Tyreek only 'started' 1 game last year...600 yards recieving..He is 5'9 or barely 5'10 i think. He needs conley to step up. Anyone who thinks losing maclin wasn't a blow or who thinks WR isnt a huge question mark is delusional.

between our 1 and 2 we barely have 1000 yards receiving last year and 12 games started...7 receiving TD between them (only 1 for conley, 6 for hill)

lcarus · 08-25-2017, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

What did the Chiefs do really, really well last year? Pass? Run? Stop the run? Rush the passer?

The answer is this team wasn't demonstrably above average in any of those areas, and especially when it mattered most in the postseason.

So how did they make moves in the offseason to get better in those areas? Bennie Logan? Cutting Jeremy Maclin? Praying that DJ's legs hold up at age 40 and Justin Houston's knee will miraculously be 100% again?

If that's your answer, I'm not impressed, sorry.

We were tied #1 in giveaways/takeaways and we were great on special teams. That's good enough to win a lot of games. And also we didn't have one of the top 3 pass rushers in the league healthy for almost all of last year. And DJ is 34, not 40. And he was still great before he got hurt.

**dirk digler** · 08-25-2017, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

This team isn't loaded.

There are no 1,000-yard receivers, no 1,000-yard running backs, no 4,000-yard QBs, no 20-TD QBs, no elite tackles on offense.

Defensively they have an elite corner and safety, and a mishmash of guys still trying to prove they are better than average NFL starters (Jones, Bailey, Logan, Parker, Wilson, Mitchell) or veterans trying to get back to form/on their last legs (Houston, Hali, DJ).

They are more than the sum of their parts thanks to very good coaching, but they are far from loaded.

They will need Tyreek Hill to be very, very special once again. Either that or a complete resurgence of an aging QB who certainly appeared ready to fall off a cliff last year.

Oh yeah, and the punter is old.

They absolutely do have a 4000-yd/20 + TD QB it is just that he will be sitting on the bench this year.

cooper barrett · 08-25-2017, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Appreciate the ad hominem, fellas.

I am a newbie but I think I can safely say: No thanks are necessary.

**DaneMcCloud** · 08-25-2017, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC

Jesus Christ you are one dumb trolling mother****er

It's ridiculous

cooper barrett · 08-25-2017, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackOp

I agree with this...and I dont see the AFCW being the best division in football. Raiders added nothing to their defense, S. Smith has fallen off a cliff ...and they have looked bottom 5 terrible. All 3 teams have new coordinators....

KC should be at least an 11 win team...

Several writers have the Raiders down to win the division and some have the Chargers coming in 2nd, placing us in 3rd in the west.

It's going to be fun.

**DaneMcCloud** · 08-25-2017, 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cooper barrett

Several writers have the Raiders down to win the division with some having and some have the Chargers coming in 2nd, placing us in 3rd in the west.

It's going to be fun.

They're placating to the market size (i.e. TV), not to the actual team.

cooper barrett · 08-25-2017, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirk digler

They absolutely do have a 4000-yd/20 + TD QB it is just that he will be sitting on the bench this year.

I'd be willing to saw that branch off and say we have 2 as Alex11 should have that kind of year in 2017.

**DaneMcCloud** · 08-25-2017, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

yeah..well..thats usually the result of people not actually having an argument.

Bull ****ing shit.

It's the result of not wasting time refuting the annual Claynus trolling predictions.

BlackOp · 08-25-2017, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cooper barrett

Several writers have the Raiders down to win the division and some have the Chargers coming in 2nd, placing us in 3rd in the west.

It's going to be fun.

Of course they have...It's free off-season press for teams that are relocating.

KC's starters have looked leaps and bounds better than any AFCW team...and it hasn't been close.

Hydrae · 08-25-2017, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

yeah..well..thats usually the result of people not actually having an argument. I was interested in the answer as well because personally I think maclin getting cut was a pretty big blow.

I think tyreek hill is solid starter at #2, but we will see if conley can be a starter WR in the "#1" role. Conley is 6'1" and more of a prototypical #1 IMO...so the burden will be on him to make enough plays to allow Tyreek to not draw a ton of double coverage....

I think conley is the main question mark..perhaps...

Dude started 11 games last year? Now he is #1/#2? 500 yards receiving...last season

Tyreek only 'started' 1 game last year...600 yards recieving..He is 5'9 or barely 5'10 i think. He needs conley to step up. Anyone who thinks losing maclin wasn't a blow or who thinks WR isnt a huge question mark is delusional.

between our 1 and 2 we barely have 1000 yards receiving last year and 12 games started...7 receiving TD between them (only 1 for conley, 6 for hill)

I keep seeing things like this about Conley. But people seem to forget that Maclin also only had 536 yards receiving last year as well. Not exactly #1 numbers either.

**DaneMcCloud** · 08-25-2017, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hydrae

I keep seeing things like this about Conley. But people seem to forget that Maclin also only had 536 yards receiving last year as well. Not exactly #1 numbers either.

Conley and Maclin had nearly identical numbers last year:

44 receptions, 536 yards for Maclin
44 receptions, 530 yards for Conley

Tyreek Hill, in limited playing time, had 61 catches for 593 yards.

Hill's snaps will increase big time in 2017 and Conley is set to make a jump as well.

08-24-2017, 04:06 PM
frozenchief Cynical Misanthrope Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Alaska Casino cash: $1061379	Over/Under 9 Wins Football Outsiders goes through the whole AFC West discussing whether they will exceed their projected Vegas lines for wins. FO is one of the more intelligent websites, using real data and not just gut instinct. Their take on KC is cautiously optimistic: Bryan: Forget the win total; what's the over/under for when Patrick Mahomes replaces Alex Smith? It's an odd situation, where a playoff team with a perfectly cromulent starting quarterback goes out and uses a first-round pick to draft his successor rather than bolster something else for a playoff run. Andrew: Surely they don't intend to actually replace Smith with Mahomes during the season? That's no way to get your team to a Super Bowl! Bryan: Jay Cutler replaced Jake Plummer in 2006, which turned out to also not be a way to get your team to a Super Bowl. You're probably right that the Chiefs won't make a move unless something falls apart this season, but that's a big old ticking clock in the ear of Smith. Andrew: The Plummer-Cutler thing really irritated me at the time (and not just me), so you just made me glad we're done writing about Denver. It's definitely ominous for Smith's future to have Mahomes not only there but apparently playing very exciting football during the preseason. The Chiefs were one of my favorite teams to watch last year, with quarterback the one damp spot on an otherwise fiery outfit. Bryan: Yeah, so far, Mahomes doesn't appear to be the next Jim Druckenmiller or Todd Marinovich, which is good for Chiefs fans and bad for Alex. This would be the second time he has lost his job to a hot up-and-coming young draft pick, too. I've got a soft spot for the guy after watching him struggle for so long on some truly terrible 49ers teams. I remember the 49ers faithful chanting that they wanted David Carr -- David Carr!! -- to enter the game to improve the level of quarterback play. No one appreciates the subtle and dangerous art of the check down! Andrew: To be fair to Smith, he has been exactly what he was signed to be for the Chiefs: a safe quarterback who can help his head coach stabilize the franchise, keep things around him on schedule, help the younger players develop, then hand over to his successor when he becomes the guy who's holding the offense back. Everything I wrote about Chase Daniel's play in FOA 2017 (still available!) applies to Smith, except Smith is a better version of that hyper-conservative, functional passer. Bryan: And, of course, the best way to help your conservative, functional passer succeed for your team with Super Bowl aspirations is to cut his top receiver in the middle of the offseason for no adequately explained reason. So long, Jeremy Maclin! Andrew: Hello Travis Kelce, who was the main beneficiary during Maclin's absence last season. Kelce, those running backs, and Tyreek Hill give a lot of quality, versatility, and unpredictability around Smith, but at some point he will probably need to pass to an actual wide receiver. Right now, that guy is Chris Conley. Or Albert Wilson. Or ... wait, that's it? They could hold their wide receiver meetings in a cupboard. Bryan: I will say this, though: for as poor as their offense looks on paper, they haven't looked bad in preseason. Yes, it's just preseason, and there are not enough grains of salt in the world to take that with, but it looks … competent! Andrew: I found the Chiefs great fun to watch last year. As long as you can forget that Tyreek Hill the football jersey is Tyreek Hill the person, he's electrifying. Kelce is one of the best receiving tight ends in the game, and one of the few tight ends who can line up in any position, run any route, and even take a wide receiver screen 80 yards for a touchdown. Andy Reid does a lot with formations and packages to confound a defense, which often results in beautiful mismatches like Albert Wilson against Telvin Smith in deep centerfield coverage. Their running game is likewise one of the most creative in the league, and they are one of the few teams with a legitimately decent offensive line. Bryan: Their defense, similarly, is fun to watch, if lacking the oomph or long-term success of Denver. Eric Berry is an amazing player to watch, and grouped with Marcus Peters and Ron Parker, you have a very, very good secondary. There's no more Dontari Poe -- a victim of their tight salary cap situation -- but you have very useful players like Ramik Wilson and Chris Jones to shore up the middle. Oh, and then Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, which are great assets to have in a division with at least two below-average offensive lines. I mean, there's nothing there that matches up with the best in the league at any one position, but it's a group without weaknesses. I do have a limb I want to go out on here. With an adequate, if not amazing offense, and a solid, if not spectacular, defense, we could see NFL history made. The record for field goals in a season is 44, set by the 2011 San Francisco 49ers. And you know who their quarterback was, right? Andrew: Alex Smith, the last time he had a highly-drafted rookie quarterback on the bench behind him. Bryan: So yeah. I'm picking the Chiefs to go 9-7 and win the division -- a tough division, but fair. Now, what's their over/under again … ah hell, another round number. So, I have to decide if this is more likely a 10-6 team or an 8-8 team. That's a huge gap! Down with integer lines! I know they went 12-4 last season, but they didn't have to play the NFC East. I'm going to say the odds that they sputter due to a lack of receiving weapons are greater than the odds that they repeat double-digit wins, so I'm taking the under. Nasty line, this one. Andrew: This line screams "push" like an over-caffeinated midwife, but I'm taking the over. This is the most balanced team in the division, and good enough to take wins away from all of the other good teams around them. I think they're the best of the West, in the AFC at least. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/scr...est-overunders
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08-25-2017, 10:59 AM	#76
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $4150478	Appreciate the ad hominem, fellas.
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08-25-2017, 11:05 AM	#78
The Franchise Most Valuable Villain Join Date: Dec 2006 Casino cash: $2575047	11-5
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