The Future of Eric Fisher

[kccrow]

Let's discuss Eric Fisher. I'm going to give my thoughts, which are long-winded and detailed from a contractual perspective.

Coming to an agreement on an extension for Eric Fisher should be of great importance to the Chiefs this offseason. Fisher is in the final year of his rookie contract, but being a first round pick he could be optioned for a fifth year. Consideration of the option year is where the Chiefs need to be diligent. This year's transition tag value for offensive lineman will be the option year salary for Eric Fisher should the Chiefs decided to exercise it since Fisher was a top 10 selection. Based on salary data available from OverTheCap.com, the transition tag value is set to be around $10,764,053. Obviously, that figure will not be perfectly accurate but it will be a very near approximation. Nearly $10.8 million for Eric Fisher in 2017 is an unacceptable figure based on his level of play so far in his career. That salary would place Fisher, as it stands now, 9th overall in salary for offensive lineman in 2017. Not only does the transition tag figure not fit Fisher's current level of production, but it also will significantly impact the salary cap.

I do not argue that Fisher has been quietly ascending as a player, but he has performed far below his lofty draft status of first overall and certainly would not be a top 10 offensive lineman at this juncture. It makes sense on multiple fronts for the Chiefs to extend Fisher to, hopefully, reduce his 2016 cap hit ($7.06 million) and his cap hits in future years.

When it comes to Fisher, I think you have to start looking at the Will Beatty and Joe Staley type of contracts in the $7.5 million average per year range and work off of that. Even though I don't think Fisher deserves that type of salary and would argue for a Michael Oher-like low APY, I do realize this is a league where salaries are going to continue to increase. At this point, I can't fathom Fisher as anymore than a middle of the league left tackle, and a $7.5 million APY would certainly reflect that going forward. A large portion of Fisher's contract should be incentive laden without a ton of guaranteed money but we'll have to see how KC handles that.

What would I offer Eric Fisher? Let's start by converting his currently guaranteed roster bonus of $2,755,977 to a signing bonus and giving him an additional $5 million added to that, for a total signing bonus of $7,755,977. Also, give him an option bonus in 2017 of $10 million that is fully guaranteed at signing. This will allow the Chiefs to spread what is effectively a $17,755,977 signing bonus out over 6 years instead of 5. Leave his current $675,000 salary for 2016 in tact and fully guaranteed, bringing him to $18.43 million in guaranteed money. Fisher gains $15 million in new, guaranteed money for the extension, while the Chiefs receive the ability to prorate over a longer period of time. Give Fisher $250,000 workout bonuses in all 6 years of the deal. Add in $500,000 in roster bonuses as injury and performance incentives in 2017 through 2020. Add a $2,000,000 roster bonus in 2021. Give him salaries of $3.0, 3.75, 4.0, 4.75, and 6.0 million in 2017 through 2021. The new contract for the entire 6 years becomes a $49,060,612 deal with $18,430,977 fully guaranteed for an APY of $8,176,769 and 37.6% guaranteed. Annual cap hits would be approximately $6.1, 7.3, 8.0, 8.3, 9.0, and 10.3 million. The extension adds $42 million in new money to the deal, which provides $7.0 APY over the 5 new years with 36% guaranteed. Oh, and the Chiefs would free up nearly $955,000 in 2016 using this format.

Obviously old money escalates the deal slightly above my target, but I'd feel pretty good about the new money and his cap hits would be middle of the road going forward for left tackles. This is a contract that isn't that Chiefs' friendly in terms of being able to cut Fisher before 2020, but I think he's shown considerable growth and you're banking on that continuing. The only question is, how do Eric Fisher and his agent view Eric Fisher at this point? If they view his value over and above this, I think the Chiefs would be wise to not elect to use the option and see if Fisher grows in 2016. Even if Fisher turns into the best tackle in the NFL (doubtful at best) that warrants a Trent Williams deal, the Chiefs wouldn't be losing in 2017.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

That's why I don't understand why every team in the first isn't more aggressive.

If you see a guy and you've already decided he's worth a first round pick, if you could include a 4th to move up and ensure you get him, why don't you do it every time?

If he's worth a 1st, he's worth a 1st and a 4th. Period.

These are prospects, not proven players. There's no way you can be so certain in an evaluation that you know that a 4th rounder is a deal breaker. If you're confident enough that you have an impact player in front of you, then that 4th rounder should never EVER be an impediment to moving up and getting him.

I think you somewhat answered your own question.

These guys are prospects, they aren't proven players. Even as confident as you can be about an impact player, they fail. We've seen it over and over.

I read a thing from Ted Thompson this weekend, something like "I'd be extremely happy with 50 percent hit rate of picks".

I don't know that you can ever be sure enough on a guy hitting so they want as many picks as they can get

[RunKC]

Yeah I don't like putting all my chips on one guy unless it's a QB. More picks=better chance.
Depends on if the draft is deep as well.

Trade up for WJIII or get KeiVarae Russel and Eric Murray from a trade back?