The way I understand the playoff picture...

[Direckshun]

This Arizona game is a gravy game. It's not critical to our chances at a playoff spot, but it would really help.

Due to our losses the past two weeks, we need to get to ten wins, and we need to run up the conference win record. I've been noodling down about a dozen scenarios, and the Chiefs must beat Oakland, Pittsburgh, and San Diego to get to 8-4 in AFC play, which would make the Chiefs virtually tie-breaker proof against any AFC wild card team.

Those wins get us to 10-5, and we can honestly drop the Arizona game at that point. 11-5 gets us in, of course, but 10-6 with wins over the Dolphins and Steelers almost guarantees we're in.

The Browns are imploding, the Chargers are hitting a buzzsaw of games at the end of their season. I expect both of them to fade to 9-7 or worse (I have them both at 8-8), which puts them out of contention.

The Ravens, more than anybody, have been bolstered by slaughtering cupcakes in the NFCS. The Ravens are 7-5 with a game in Miami this week that will likely be their version of KC-Pittsburgh, and three winnable games to close out the season. That's probably a 10-6 record. A 10-6 Chiefs team has a very easy tie-breaker with them because our conference record will have trounced theirs.

The most obvious threats here are the Bengals, the Dolphins, and the Steelers. Beating the Steelers mean we have any tie-breaker you want over two of those teams. And I think the Bengals are waltzing to the AFCN title.

This is a bit jumbled, but there's virtually no world where we lose to Oakland, Pittsburgh, and/or San Diego and survive to the postseason. But we can lose against the Cards and still comfortably get there by winning all three.

[Wildcat2005]

Chiefs most likely have to win 3 of the next 4 to have a chance

There are realistic scenarios where they lose to Arizona or Oakland but win out and still miss the playoffs
They can lose to one of the 3 remaining AFC teams, however it will be harder to get in than that way

The big games though are at Pitt and home against SD

Just running through some scenarios a loss against either of those teams dramatically reduces their chances of getting in

[jspchief]

Originally Posted by Count Alex's Wins

we definitely need to get in so we can lose our token playoff game

/thread

[Simply Red]

Why on Earth would you not run the ball your opening possession AT ALL?

Truly dumb coaching. And again; I hate to say it - but C. Collinsworth nailed it while analyzing Reid's formula for doing that.

Dumb move there.

[notorious]

So this is what it's like to be diagnosed with AIDS.

[Three7s]

Originally Posted by Simply Red

Why on Earth would you not run the ball your opening possession AT ALL?

Truly dumb coaching. And again; I hate to say it - but C. Collinsworth nailed it while analyzing Reid's formula for doing that.

Dumb move there.

Yeah, Reid got scared and thought we'd have to put up more points, rather than playing to the team's strength of ball control offense. I hope he learned something.

[Simply Red]

Direckshun got mad and left and still hasn't come back. LOL - srsly? that's more sensitive than me.

Direckshun PM me bud.

[Manila-Chief]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Nothing is absolute and I'm just guessing, as everyone else is... but, I don't think NE will play well on the road after a tough road loss this week. Call me crazy, but I think SD carries the momentum from the Baltimore win into this one and catches NE on the back end of a tough 2 game road trip.

I'm not as impressed with SF lately, think SD can snag that one.

Manning and the Broncos are 15-1 vs the AFCW since his arrival, the lone loss being to SD in Denver (of all places). I think Denver plays well and takes that one, and after a grueling stretch of tough games - I think SD falls flat at the end in KC.

Yeah, I know you are guessing ... so are most everyone else. This seems to be the year of parity where anything can and does happen. I hear your logic re: Pats let down ... but, I've lost a lot of games in pickem contests with that kind of logic. But, I think the Pats beat SD. They have too much at stake and are a real good team. I will not be surprised if SD wins at Arrowhead.

Oh, no question, I think Denver wins out. I'm pulling for the Donks to lose coz I'm a bit jealous of what Elway has done. Yep, Manning will probably lose again in the S.B. but at least he has a legit chance of getting there. We don't even have a chance of being an average NFL team. Dorsey must have inherited a whole pile of smoke makers and mirrors and is trying to use them all up???? He is doing a very pitiful job!!!

[Three7s]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Nothing is absolute and I'm just guessing, as everyone else is... but, I don't think NE will play well on the road after a tough road loss this week. Call me crazy, but I think SD carries the momentum from the Baltimore win into this one and catches NE on the back end of a tough 2 game road trip.

I'm not as impressed with SF lately, think SD can snag that one.

Manning and the Broncos are 15-1 vs the AFCW since his arrival, the lone loss being to SD in Denver (of all places). I think Denver plays well and takes that one, and after a grueling stretch of tough games - I think SD falls flat at the end in KC.

I agree that SF isn't all that great, much of that thanks to the lacking play by Kaepernick. I think the Chargers will be 9-7 and a game behind the final wild card spot. Currently, I have the Chiefs finishing out at 10-6, beating the Cardinals, Raiders, and Chargers, but losing to the Steelers. All in all, I think the Chiefs are good for the 6th seed and a humiliating first round loss in Indianapolis again.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Please god no.

[philfree]

Originally Posted by cdcox

True, sort of. No game is hugely more important than than another, but the critical thing is to win 3 of 4.



A whole dozen out of 2^64? Wow. I recommend looking at about the 5000 most likely scenarios and go from there. But you are basically correct that getting to 10-6 wiht the last loss coming against Arizona gets us to a 97% chance of making the playoffs.





Complete hogwash. If we get to 10 - 6 with a loss to the following teams the odds of us making the playoffs are:

Pittsburgh: 82%
Oakland: 95%
San Diego: 63%

All that said if we win in Arizona our odds of making the playoffs increase? Exactly!

[NJChiefsFan]

Originally Posted by ram29jackson

Browns and Bills will make the playoffs

The Bills will have to pull a rabbit out of their ass to not be 7-7 after the next two weeks. The Browns don't even know who their QB is.

I really was worried we would lose to OAK. I also expected us to beat MIA and SD after we started 0-2. I am not saying I have this great vision, but for whatever reason my gut has been right this year. I feel pretty confident that we will beat ARI and OAK. After that, who knows. This team seems to step up when it needs to and fall down when its about to reach a new height.

I think part of the issue is that we are used to the Chiefs beating poor teams and losing to good teams. Every year they get in the playoffs its when they beat every poor team during a weak schedule. Now they seem to be a team that can beat a good team and lose to a bad one. So I don't think you can just use a loss to a weak team to predict that they will lose to a good team. I think you need to look at the SF, MIA, and SD games to look at what to expect this Sunday as far as compete level goes.

[Ming the Merciless]

Right on man....I REALLY hope we can get that 1993 monkey off our backs.

Good stuff direk

[Simply Red]

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

Right on man....I REALLY hope we can get that 1993 monkey off our backs.

Good stuff direk

You seem nice.

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by Simply Red

You seem nice.

I need you inside me

[Simply Red]

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

I need you inside me

I was thinking we could take a few flesh-lights out to the K, sit in the nose bleeds and watch Billy Butler and share nachos and soda's and other things, if you know what I mean.