***Official 2015 STL Cardinals Thread III.***

[BigRedChief]

2011 World Series Championship
2012 NLCS. One win from another WS appearance.
2013 World Series. Two wins from another World Series Championship
2014 NLCS. Three wins from another WS appearance
2015 Central Division title. Won 100 games. Lost in the NLDS.

• Made the postseason 11 times in the last 15 seasons.
• Only 1 losing season since 2000.
• Reached the World Series 4 times since 2004 and won as many championships (two) the past eight seasons as it did from 1965 to 2005.
• Made the NLCS 9 times including the last 4 years 2011-2014
• Three million attendance? Take it to the bank.
• 65 post season wins since 2004. 22+ wins more than any other team.

[Marco Polo]

Really good article on what other managers/GMs are saying about Heyward:

http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/12/09/jas...inter-meetings

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Marco Polo

Really good article on what other managers/GMs are saying about Heyward:

http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/12/01809/jason-heyward-free-agent-winter-meetings

I'm okay with $180 million/7 years in the current baseball environment. He fits in the clubhouse. Defense is becoming more valuable. He is younger than normal FA's out there. We are going to receive and additional $115 million in cable money starting in 2017. That will help us keep up with the escalating salaries and keep us around a 10-12 top salary team.

He is a complimentary player it won't hamstring us going forward.

[O.city]

Im starting to think I'd rather have an Upton or Chris davis

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Well we did sign Iwakuma and Ryu is supposed to be coming back. Doesn't make up for the loss of Greinke though.

Ah, Iwakuma - good point.

I still think they have an edge at 2 and 3, but Iwakuma is a guy I like a lot so it's not quite as wide.

I am a little surprised that the Dodgers haven't gone hard after Cueto. Seems like an ideal answer for them.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Marco Polo

Really good article on what other managers/GMs are saying about Heyward:

http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/12/09/jas...inter-meetings

However, one common concern I heard about Heyward was the odd way he swings the bat. He sets up as if he were hitting in a phone booth, with his hands tight to his body and his elbows in. He has almost no load with his hands, opens his front hip early, prefers to get his hands away from his body and spins so hard on his front foot that sometimes the outside of his ankle hits the ground. Heyward is much better hitting pitches down and away than pitches in and pitches up. He clubs at the ball more than he swings at it.

Sheeeeit....I could totally be a scout.

I said it all season - why the hell anyone would ever give him a pitch down and away is beyond me. Bust him belt high or higher and on the inner 3rd of the plate and he just cannot get his foot down and his hands through quickly enough to get to the ball.

I still worry that you're paying for what people think Heyward could have been rather than what he almost certainly is.

At this point there's enough of a division among major league front offices that I think 1/2 the teams out there will pay a premium for Heyward's WAR (the 'new school') and the other half will pay a premium for Upton's power (the 'old school') and both of them will end up with enough bidders to be expensive as hell.

But the bottom line is that Mozeliak most certainly favors the run prevention model. He may be willing to go to $22-$24 million/season for Heyward but he damn sure won't do that for Upton.

I think we end up with Heyward but we pay a LOT of money for the privilege.

[O.city]

I think with heyward, there's still the hope that he can figure out himself at the plate.

With upton, he ain't figuring out how to be a defender like heyward

[jd1020]

Talks between the Nationals and Leake are apparently heating up. There's a connection there with Dusty Baker.

I wonder if the Nationals sign Leake if they will put Strasburg up on the trade block when everyone is going insane for pitchers.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by O.city

I think with heyward, there's still the hope that he can figure out himself at the plate.

With upton, he ain't figuring out how to be a defender like heyward

Amsinger-"I see the Giants as the favorites for Heyward. I see the Cardinals as a distant 4th, behind the Giants, Angels and Cubs."

— The Fast Lane (@101ESPNFastLane) December 9, 2015

[BigRedChief]

Cueto's agent out there saying the Cardinals are a good fit for Cueto.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Cueto's agent out there saying the Cardinals are a good fit for Cueto.

He's probably right.

I just don't trust his arm.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

He's probably right.

I just don't trust his arm.

He checks out at times during the season too.

Isn't his age and innings pitched in his career similar to Price?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Amsinger-"I see the Giants as the favorites for Heyward. I see the Cardinals as a distant 4th, behind the Giants, Angels and Cubs."

— The Fast Lane (@101ESPNFastLane) December 9, 2015

{shrug}

At this point I just don't know how much I care either way. There's a 50/50 shot that Heyward is a miserable gamble that backfires for whatever team is willing to guarantee the guy $24 million/season.

There's simply no way of knowing at this point how that deal will work. If it turns out the Cardinals sign him, then obviously I'm hoping it works out well, if not, I hope it becomes an albatross for whoever takes him on.

But because it's such a crap shoot either way, I can really take it or leave it. I'd simply like to see it wrap up fairly quickly so the Cards can know where they are and what they need to do going forward.

Honestly, I really wish the Cubs had been this good last season. It would've forced the Cardinals to be aggressive in the bidding for Kang, Moncada and Tomas - areas where they could've almost certainly found the surplus value that would've allowed them to continue to hang with the big spenders. Right now they're just on pace to simply pay market for talent - that doesn't do anything to separate them from the pack in the NL.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

He checks out at times during the season too.

Isn't his age and innings pitched in his career similar to Price?

Roughly, but Price is a 6'6'' fastball/changeup pitcher. Cueto is a 5'11'' sinker/slider pitcher.

Which one of them do you believe is more likely to hold together through the 2,000 innings mark?

Cueto reminds me so very much of Roy Oswalt. Oswalt was among baseball's elite - a true ace - through 2,000 career innings. And after he hit 2,000 innings he threw about 230 more (largely ineffective) innings before he was out of baseball. Like Cueto he was a smallish righty who bore a heavy innings load early in his career. He relied on power breaking balls to do most of his heavy lifting and oddly, like Cueto, he developed a reputation for checking out for an inning or so every few games. An Astros fan on my Cardinals board once referred to it as the "Roy Inning". He said "I don't know if it's tractors, trucks or tits he's thinking about out there, but it damn sure isn't baseball..."

It was a perfect remark and it was spot on. As a Cards fan, we'd simply have to sit there and wait for the Roy inning to see if we'd get through that day.

Cueto's build, arsenal and mentality are very similar. It tells me that when his stuff dulls just a little bit, he'll start to get his ass kicked and he'll just pack it in.

If he makes the same 2,000 innings that Roy did before cratering, that gives us maybe 3 years before that contract starts to hit. Then again, we've eaten most of the Wainwright extension to this point and it hasn't really killed us. Maybe they'll simply consider it a sunk cost.

[Miles]

Latest I read on Chris Davis is he is seeking a 7 yr/200M deal.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

{shrug}

At this point I just don't know how much I care either way. There's a 50/50 shot that Heyward is a miserable gamble that backfires for whatever team is willing to guarantee the guy $24 million/season.

There's simply no way of knowing at this point how that deal will work. If it turns out the Cardinals sign him, then obviously I'm hoping it works out well, if not, I hope it becomes an albatross for whoever takes him on.

But because it's such a crap shoot either way, I can really take it or leave it. I'd simply like to see it wrap up fairly quickly so the Cards can know where they are and what they need to do going forward.

Honestly, I really wish the Cubs had been this good last season. It would've forced the Cardinals to be aggressive in the bidding for Kang, Moncada and Tomas - areas where they could've almost certainly found the surplus value that would've allowed them to continue to hang with the big spenders. Right now they're just on pace to simply pay market for talent - that doesn't do anything to separate them from the pack in the NL.

Without Hayward, what do we do? Pay Davis, Cespesdes $200 million and hope? Trade away what little farm we have left for Cargo?

The Cardinals trading away any proven backups in CF are all in on Grichuk as their CF. Who is going to play CF is he gets hurt and misses any length of time? You ready to start Pham for 6 weeks every day?

We sign Hayward, he can play a respectable CF. We put Piscotty out there we still are going to hope Adams or Moss does something this year. But thats still way less risk than forcing Adams/Moss to play everyday and only Pham to backup every OF position.