***Official 2015 STL Cardinals Thread***

[BigRedChief]

2011 World Series Championship
2012 NLCS. One win from another WS appearance.
2013 World Series. Two wins from another World Series Championship
2014 NLCS. Three wins from another WS appearance

• Made the postseason 10 times in the last 14 seasons.
• Only 1 losing season since 2000.
• Reached the World Series 4 times since 2004 and won as many championships (two) the past eight seasons as it did from 1965 to 2005.
• Made the NLCS 9 times including the last 4 years 2011-2014
• Three million attendance? Take it to the bank.
• 65 post season wins since 2004. 22+ wins more than any other team.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Because when you commit 30 errors/season, that's relevant.

If you're arguing the difference between a .970 fielder and a .980 fielder, it doesn't matter.

But if a guy kicks 30 balls/season, well unless he's Andrelton Simmons, that matters a lot. And Javier Baez isn't Andrelton Simmons.

It's really not. He can boot no balls and still be a net negative on defense, like a Derek Jeter.

Every ball you don't get to is just as bad as every routine ball you boot.

[Marco Polo]

Lackey pitched a heck of a game. We need all of our starters to pick it up with Wainwright out.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

It's really not. He can boot no balls and still be a net negative on defense, like a Derek Jeter.

Every ball you don't get to is just as bad as every routine ball you boot.

It really is.

It's not dispositive, but it does matter. It's the whole 'brick is not a wall' thing.

You don't use it as the crux of your argument, but it's a relevant part of one. As you've noted, not getting to a ball is just as bad as booting it, but when you're talking about a person like Javier Baez who has no better than average range (and I won't even give him that), then his fielding percentage now comes into play in a big way.

If Baez fielded every ball he got to, he'd be a credible defender. He doesn't. He's a shitty defender.

There are better aggregate methods for speaking to defense but to act as though there's no sense at all in discussing fielding percentage assumes that I've never actually watched the person I'm talking about play. Javier Baez doesn't have the range to make his fielding percentage irrelevant and as such, the number of balls he kicks matters. A lot.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The problem I have with this pack of Cubs prospects is that Cubs fans think they're all going to be the elite version of what their prospect guide says they might be. That ain't gonna happen and if you're betting on a bust, the guy who plays shoddy defense and has no concept of the strike zone is probably a good place to start.

I've never said Baez was going to be elite. I've said he's a good defender, in this case average, and that he has 30 HR power which is huge for a MI. If Baez can even get his BA up to 260 he's probably an All-Star. It remains to be seen if he can make the necessary changes at the plate to do that at the major league level.

At the end of the day I think either he or Castro wont be in the Cubs franchise opening day 2016. I'm leaning Baez because I'm not holding my breath he calms that swing down enough to reach his minor league batting numbers in the majors. Still think they'll get a pretty decent return on him in a trade.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

I've never said Baez was going to be elite. I've said he's a good defender, in this case average, and that he has 30 HR power which is huge for a MI. If Baez can even get his BA up to 260 he's probably an All-Star. It remains to be seen if he can make the necessary changes at the plate to do that at the major league level.

At the end of the day I think either he or Castro wont be in the Cubs franchise opening day 2016. I'm leaning Baez because I'm not holding my breath he calms that swing down enough to reach his minor league batting numbers in the majors. Still think they'll get a pretty decent return on him in a trade.

Depends on how much patience Maddon has.

If I'm a Cubs fan, I'd prefer Castro but that guy's still a space cadet. The Castro of 2014 is a better complementary part for the rest of the guys in your lineup than Baez is. Perhaps Baez can just scare pitchers so badly that they pitch him carefully and he'll draw enough walks to become a nice piece in that lineup. If not, I just don't see how he fits. With a team that will likely have 4 truly outstanding offensive players in it in Russell, Rizzo, Bryant and Soler, an out generating machine like Baez isn't worth the power he brings.

If you can get Castro giving you a .300 BA and a .340 OBP, that's a damn nice complement to the other guys and he keeps the lineup turning over to get those guys more ABs. You'll trade power for OBP there because of the rest of the parts in the lineup.

But can Maddon handle his flakiness. I suspect he can handle the 'cute' flakiness like his shenanigans with Bryant yesterday. But when he turns his back to the IF on a routine pop-fly and lets Carpenter tag up and score from 3b like he did 2 seasons ago? When he's picking grass as the pitch is being delivered? I suspect Maddon won't think so highly of that.

I'm actually a fan of Castro and was hopeful that the Cards would make a move for him after the 2013 season when the Cubs were just looking to unload his contract. He's a solid player. But I don't have to watch him everyday either and I'm not sure I could handle the mental lapses.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

You really don't need Kozma for defensive purposes, especially not if it's Anna you add to the roster.

Now if it's Kelly, you're going to be a little short on defense at SS, but Kelly can play it credibly. Ultimately it just doesn't matter that much. Peralta isn't going to get subbed out for defensive purposes and if he gets hurt, Anna's probably a better 15-day option at SS than Kozma anyway.

Kozma isn't needed on this roster at all. Moreover, no, Kozma has not hit the ball well this year. His OPS on the season is below .500. I feel like this is one of those things where people say "y'know, Cruz has always done a decent job of filling in when Molina is injured" without actually looking and realizing that he been abysmal during periods of injury for Yadi.

Kozma has sucked at the plate as badly this year as he ever has. Hell, he's probably been worse. With an ISO of zero and an OBP of less than .300, nothing about his offense has been surprising. It's been exactly the crap I would expect from a crap hitter.

And just ignoring the fact that Cruz sucks because "well, he's the backup catcher" is falling victim to Nichols Law of Catcher's defense. A catcher's defensive reputation is inversely proportionate to their offensive contributions. People assume that Cruz is a credible defensive catcher because his offense sucks so bad, but do you ever actually watch Tony Cruz play defense? Because I do and he's absolutely miserable. Next time he's catching - watch him. He doesn't present an early target and he can usually be counted on to be moving his glove as the pitcher is delivering (yeah, that's gonna help, Tony). He doesn't play up in his crouch but rather rocks back so that his ass rests on his heels and it makes him slower pop to pop on his throws down. Oh yeah, and his throws suck. And watching him pout like a petulant schoolgirl when Martinez was missing his spots (his body language was worse than Carlos's) while absolutely refusing to get up from behind the plate and go talk to the ****ing rattled 23 yr old on the mound was the worst display of a catcher taking command of a staff that I've ever seen.

Tony Cruz is piece of shit. He's terrible at absolutely everything baseball related. He's a bad hitter, bad receiver, bad thrower and shit leader. He's possibly the worst baseball player I've ever seen. If you can watch him critically and objectively point out one single thing he does well, I will tip my cap to you.

The team would be better with Pete Kozma as the backup catcher. Tony Cruz just started catching 4 years ago and it's very very obvious back there. He has no feel for the position and his technique is dogshit. He definitely a converted IFer playing C so why not cut his ass and put someone back there that can play SS instead? This is a terrible, terrible, TERRIBLE, idea but it's still a better idea than leaving Tony ****ing Cruz on a major league roster.

Agree here. Cruz just sucks. He must be kept around because the locker room and players love him. Why else is he still on this team? Am I missing some on the field performance stat?

Kozma is what he is. I'm assuming Matheny is keeping him around to play SS/2B/3B in case of long term injury. I have nothing but superficial knowledge on Kelly/Anna. What makes you think they can handle major league pitching any better than Kozma?

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Oh for ****'s sake, Matheny. Do you not realize that the warmup tosses tax guys as well?

If you were really only going to leave Maness in to face a single batter, what the hell did you bring him in at all for? Just go straight to Rosenthal and give Maness the day off.

And if you were going to let Maness go if he kept getting guys out, why were you warming up Rosenthal? Again, for a reliever the getting warm is half the battle. It takes a fair amount out of those guys getting up and getting loose.

It's not just bad luck that causes Matheny to torch the back of his bullpen every single goddamn year. The guy truly has no idea what leads to reliever attrition.

WTF was up with that? Lackey gives you a chance to not burn through your bullpen and WTF do you do with a 4 run lead and the last at bat?

We need these guys in October. Quit putting unnecessary pitches and innings on their arms. GEEEZZZ

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Baez didn't scare me, doesn't scare me and I hope they call him up so we can give up solo HRs to him in 5 run ballgames and strike him out every time the game is actually close. He's a guess/mistake hitter and that's what they do.

Russell scares the hell out of me. Bryant scares the hell out of me. Rizzo is a God among men and Soler is going to be a good one. Guys like Baez and Alcantara, who pretty much just swing really hard on the off chance that they make contact? They do not scare me. Guys like Almora who do a lot of okay things but nothing particularly well? They turn into Jon Jay if everything breaks right and they don't scare me.

Rizzo looks like he may win a MVP. Bryant and Russell look like they will be All-Stars. It's not the Cubs time just yet. They buy some pitching this off season. They will be a threat to us next year.

[Mi_chief_fan]

Originally Posted by jd1020

You do realize the league average is .970ish, right?

You called him a "good" defender, not a "shade under league average" defender. However, he is still young, he CAN get better, he just looks.....awful, in the field.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

It really is.

It's not dispositive, but it does matter. It's the whole 'brick is not a wall' thing.

You don't use it as the crux of your argument, but it's a relevant part of one. As you've noted, not getting to a ball is just as bad as booting it, but when you're talking about a person like Javier Baez who has no better than average range (and I won't even give him that), then his fielding percentage now comes into play in a big way.

If Baez fielded every ball he got to, he'd be a credible defender. He doesn't. He's a shitty defender.

There are better aggregate methods for speaking to defense but to act as though there's no sense at all in discussing fielding percentage assumes that I've never actually watched the person I'm talking about play. Javier Baez doesn't have the range to make his fielding percentage irrelevant and as such, the number of balls he kicks matters. A lot.

But that's just the thing. Baez isn't a bad defender because he boots a lot of balls. He's a bad defender because he boots a lot of balls, he has an average arm, and he has middling range.

It's like looking at someone's HR total to determine their offensive ability.

[jd1020]

Baez has average armstrength now? Sure love to know where you got that from. I doubt you'll find any scouting report not claiming he has a great arm and one of his highlights from last year was throwing out Starling Marte from his knees in the outfield grass. Get back to me with how you think thats possible with an average arm.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

But that's just the thing. Baez isn't a bad defender because he boots a lot of balls. He's a bad defender because he boots a lot of balls, he has an average arm, and he has middling range.

It's like looking at someone's HR total to determine their offensive ability.

He's a bad defender because of a combination of things and as you've noted, one of those things is the fact that he kicks a lot of balls.

Like I said, it's not dispositive, but your position that it doesn't matter isn't correct either. It's not the only thing I looked at, but if someone's trying to discuss FP% as a support for him, they're going to have to explain away the fact that his FP% is actually pretty lousy.

[O.city]

Where do the Cubs intend on Soler playing? He doesn't look real comfortable in RF.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

Where do the Cubs intend on Soler playing? He doesn't look real comfortable in RF.

If Holliday can play left, so can Soler.

I'm not sure why he hasn't been moved over there already. Ultimately I think Bryant ends up in RF long-term, though he's done a fine job at 3b so far. It must be that extra 11 days he spent in the minors, right Theo?

Coghlan doesn't have the arm to play RF so ultimately Soler's really the only available option there right now. Even if Alcantara wasn't playing horrible baseball right now, he doesn't really have the arm for RF either. But when LaStella gets healthy or if Baez ever figures out how to make contact again, you could shift Bryant over to RF and move Soler over to LF.

Then again, if McKinney and Schwarber continue progressing, Schwarber may be their long-term RFer and they'll make due with Bryant's glove at 3b with Soler in LF. They're still keeping Schwarber behind the plate but most don't think he'll stick there.

I just think the fact that they have a bit of a prospect gap in their OF right now has Soler in RF but long-term he's going to left.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

If Holliday can play left, so can Soler.

I'm not sure why he hasn't been moved over there already. Ultimately I think Bryant ends up in RF long-term, though he's done a fine job at 3b so far. It must be that extra 11 days he spent in the minors, right Theo?

Coghlan doesn't have the arm to play RF so ultimately Soler's really the only available option there right now. Even if Alcantara wasn't playing horrible baseball right now, he doesn't really have the arm for RF either. But when LaStella gets healthy or if Baez ever figures out how to make contact again, you could shift Bryant over to RF and move Soler over to LF.

Then again, if McKinney and Schwarber continue progressing, Schwarber may be their long-term RFer and they'll make due with Bryant's glove at 3b with Soler in LF.

I just think the fact that they have a bit of a prospect gap in their OF right now has Soler in RF but long-term he's going to left.

Eh, Holliday doesn't really "play" left, more occupies it with his monster muscles so it doesn't fight back.

I had assumed keeping Bryant at third brings more value to the cubs than putting him in RF and moving Baez over to 3rd.

Looking at their minor system, they've got alot of highly rated position players, who, i assume will be moved for pitching at some point, no?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

Eh, Holliday doesn't really "play" left, more occupies it with his monster muscles so it doesn't fight back.

I had assumed keeping Bryant at third brings more value to the cubs than putting him in RF and moving Baez over to 3rd.

Looking at their minor system, they've got alot of highly rated position players, who, i assume will be moved for pitching at some point, no?

Well that would probably depend.

Theo seems content to build his staff via FA. Mostly because it's much faster and they appear ready to win pretty soon.

If Schwarber could somehow stay behind the plate AND McKinney continued on his present track, they could find room for all of those guys. Almora in CF, Soler in LF, McKinney in RF with Bryant - Russell - Castro/Baez - Rizzo on the IF and Schwarber at C.

Now again, that's banking on a lot of things breaking right for them, but that could still be Theo's plan. Ultimately, those guys seem to be about as good at finding bats as the Cardinals are at finding arms. Now if Schwarber can't stay behind the plate they may not want to force McKinney into CF so they'd move somebody. The time to get someone like Syndergaard for Baez has almost certainly passed so they may just ride him out.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

He's a bad defender because of a combination of things and as you've noted, one of those things is the fact that he kicks a lot of balls.

Like I said, it's not dispositive, but your position that it doesn't matter isn't correct either. It's not the only thing I looked at, but if someone's trying to discuss FP% as a support for him, they're going to have to explain away the fact that his FP% is actually pretty lousy.

FP% alone is a bad argument. Bringing in other metrics is an absolute necessity because it only tells a sliver of the story.