*** Official 2015 Royals Repository ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer

I can't wait for this season to start. The AL Central should be a very entertaining race. I'll give brief thoughts on each team the Royals must contend with to make it back to the postseason - strengths and weaknesses.

Detroit Tigers:
Strength: The offense is still full of powerful hitters, and Miguel Cabrera may be healthier.
Weakness: Rotation is questionable after Price and Sanchez, bullpen continues to be horrible.

Cleveland Indians:
Strength: Great manager and a deep, versatile lineup.
Weakness: The rotation is a question mark past Corey Kluber, and even he has a few questions about him.

Chicago White Sox:
Strength: 1-2-3 combo of Sale, Quintana and Samardzija is pretty formidable. Offense is anchored by Jose Abreu, too.
Weakness: Defense still has major questions, and this team has 20 games to improve by if it really wants to make the playoffs.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

Let's get this started!

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by alnorth

generally speaking I do think that confidence, though it may be a relevant factor for winning, is a lot less important than just simply being better at hitting a baseball or throwing a tough strike than the other team.

I don't think anyone will disagree with this.

BUT you dismiss the idea that a pitcher being comfortable throwing inside is different than one who in the the back (even if it is just at the very back) of his mind is thinking about consequences if he screws up. That is an advantage I don't want to give the other teams if we don't need to. A couple good plunks and that goes away. Yes they still pitch inside but not as aggressively and definitely not as comfortably.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

So we were a middling team for most of last season. Suddenly, we went something like 25-4. Did the talent fairy just show up and sprinkle talent dust all over the clubhouse, or was it something else?

Random chance does exist, ya know. (More commonly called luck, good or bad) Play enough games, and it'll even out.

Baseball is undeniably a high-variance game, but I think you are attributing most or all of that variance to confidence and not nearly enough to blind, dumb luck.

We are still talking about a sport where you can get a vastly different result in a plate appearance from the bat hitting the ball just a couple millimeters higher or lower. Confidence probably has more to do with making fewer egregious mistakes than anything, but confidence does not live in the millimeters of difference between an out and a hit or home run. That is the crazy area where random, maddening chance lives.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by Silock

That doesn't really explain why a guy like MadBum demolished us last year. He's good but not that good. He got confident. We felt like we couldn't hit him. He wasn't pitching that much differently than when we were hitting him.

He's talented and got into our head


You could say the same about our bullpen last year. We gained a reputation and other teams started pushing to gain a lead before our relievers enter the game. They went to the plate unsure of themselves against our bullpen.

Baseball is so mental, so much about confidence

A guy who strides to the plate expecting to get a hit is much more likely to do so than one expects bad things to happen.

Just look at Moose, the infield shift kicked him right in the ego. Learning to overcome the infield shift made him more confident everywhere.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

I don't think anyone will disagree with this.

BUT you dismiss the idea that a pitcher being comfortable throwing inside is different than one who in the the back (even if it is just at the very back) of his mind is thinking about consequences if he screws up. That is an advantage I don't want to give the other teams if we don't need to. A couple good plunks and that goes away. Yes they still pitch inside but not as aggressively and definitely not as comfortably.

I love you.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

I don't think anyone will disagree with this.

BUT you dismiss the idea that a pitcher being comfortable throwing inside is different than one who in the the back (even if it is just at the very back) of his mind is thinking about consequences if he screws up. That is an advantage I don't want to give the other teams if we don't need to. A couple good plunks and that goes away. Yes they still pitch inside but not as aggressively and definitely not as comfortably.

We're not in the national league. The pitchers are gonna do what they have to do to get outs.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Silock

That doesn't really explain why a guy like MadBum demolished us last year. He's good but not that good. He got confident. We felt like we couldn't hit him. He wasn't pitching that much differently than when we were hitting him.

Confidence is probably quite a bit more important in the postseason, especially a game 7, than any other time. When everything is on the line, you are more likely to make a terrible mistake if you lack confidence than you would on a lazy sunday afternoon in May.

[Sure-Oz]

Stark is full of it and **** mlb...the days of kicking the royals around is over. Love this team

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by alnorth

We're not in the national league. The pitchers are gonna do what they have to do to get outs.

Yes, like I said they will still pitch inside... but NOT AS COMFORTABLY (or aggressively). That makes a difference. I am dumbfounded as to why you can't see this.

The smart play is to get an early lead on the Twins then late in the game wait for a HBP or really anything that feels too aggressive and then next inning smack a guy for good measure. Sends a message and has little bearing on the game. Repeat if necessary.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Yes, like I said they will still pitch inside... but NOT AS COMFORTABLY (or aggressively). That makes a difference. I am dumbfounded as to why you can't see this.

The smart play is to get an early lead on the Twins then late in the game wait for a HBP or really anything that feels too aggressive and then next inning smack a guy for good measure. Sends a message and has little bearing on the game. Repeat if necessary.

I think you are arguing that their hitters will go to their pitchers and say "look, stop throwing inside so much, or we're gonna keep getting drilled", if not explicitely, then at least implied.

I do not believe that is true, at all. I believe the hitters will want their pitchers to continue doing what they think they have to in order to keep the Royals from scoring runs and keep their team in the game, and if the Royals want to get into a beanball war over some perceived slight, well then whatever, they'll handle it.

I do not believe retaliating is going to cause opposing pitchers to stop throwing inside as often, at all. Either thats what you need to do to get our hitters to miss or ground out while risking the occasional free base, or its not.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Confidence is probably quite a bit more important in the postseason, especially a game 7, than any other time. When everything is on the line, you are more likely to make a terrible mistake if you lack confidence than you would on a lazy sunday afternoon in May.

why?

The talent level doesn't suddenly change in game 7.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by alnorth

I think you are arguing that their hitters will go to their pitchers and say "look, stop throwing inside so much, or we're gonna keep getting drilled", if not explicitely, then at least implied.

I do not believe that is true, at all. I believe the hitters will want their pitchers to continue doing what they think they have to in order to keep the Royals from scoring runs and keep their team in the game, and if the Royals want to get into a beanball war over some perceived slight, well then whatever, they'll handle it.

I do not believe retaliating is going to cause opposing pitchers to stop throwing inside as often, at all. Either thats what you need to do to get our hitters to miss or ground out while risking the occasional free base, or its not.

You act as if the pitchers live in a closed off cage only to be brought out in the daylight to pitch. They watch the games too you know... the hitters don't need to say a damn thing.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Random chance does exist, ya know. (More commonly called luck, good or bad) Play enough games, and it'll even out.

Baseball is undeniably a high-variance game, but I think you are attributing most or all of that variance to confidence and not nearly enough to blind, dumb luck.

We are still talking about a sport where you can get a vastly different result in a plate appearance from the bat hitting the ball just a couple millimeters higher or lower. Confidence probably has more to do with making fewer egregious mistakes than anything, but confidence does not live in the millimeters of difference between an out and a hit or home run. That is the crazy area where random, maddening chance lives.

And that random chance just happened to continue into this season?

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

why?

The talent level doesn't suddenly change in game 7.

The high stakes cause confidence to be more important than it would usually be in the long, grinding, regular season. The consequences of failure in game 7 can lead to nervousness which can cause you to make an egregious mistake. Nervousness can obviously be beaten by confidence. There's not a lot to be nervous about in a random April game.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

And that random chance just happened to continue into this season?

Haven't you been bombarded by all the stories about how rare 7-0 is? How even the greatest glorious teams in MLB history are usually not able to start with a 7-game winning streak?

Hell yes random chance had a part of it.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

You act as if the pitchers live in a closed off cage only to be brought out in the daylight to pitch. They watch the games too you know... the hitters don't need to say a damn thing.

I believe if the pitchers went to the hitters after they were hit a couple times and asked if they should back off a bit, the hitters would say "hell no, you keep doing what you are doing if it works!"