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Old 11-12-2018, 10:02 AM  
DaFace DaFace is offline
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NYT 2018 playoff simulator is up and running
I know people like running scenarios with this thing (or at least I do). It's not particularly exciting with regard to scenarios where the Chiefs just make the playoffs (spoiler alert: I like our chances), but you can look at our chances for HFA, getting a bye, etc.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ture.html?_r=0
Last edited by DaFace; 11-12-2018 at 10:08 AM..
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Old 11-27-2018, 10:39 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
The Chiefs can take care of the Chargers so they're really third. We need the following losses, in order of priority:

1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. Chargers
I think I’d put the Texans at 3 instead of the Chargers. They have an easy remaining schedule.
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Old 11-27-2018, 10:43 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by Strongside View Post
A couple things to consider about this weekend:

NE Pass defense: 25th in NFL
MIN Pass offense: 7th in NFL

NE has had good success in the running game this year, using it to set up the play action and take pressure off of Brady – but Minnesota has a solid run defense.

NE rushing offense: 12th in NFL
MIN rushing defense: 4th in NFL

Do I expect NE to lose on Sunday? No.

But there's at least some reason to be hopeful that Minnesota could pull off an upset if Cousins and the run D have a big day.
If the Vikes could take care of NE and Pitt wins, the weekend would be nice to the Chiefs.

Gotta win in Oakland obviously.
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Old 11-27-2018, 10:54 AM   #63
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The models generally think that the Pats are our biggest threat to HFA, so universally, if you want HFA, you want the Pats to lose (even against the Steelers). After that, losses to the Steelers and Texans are important, but not as significantly.

If your goal is to avoid disaster by not winning the division, you want the Chargers to lose. That's about all there is to it.

No one else really matters.
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Old 11-27-2018, 10:58 AM   #64
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I feel like we're all beating around the bush with the bottom line here.

We control our own destiny.

Win the games you're supposed to win (all remaining) and none of this banter matters.
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Old 11-27-2018, 11:00 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by Strongside View Post
I feel like we're all beating around the bush with the bottom line here.

We control our own destiny.

Win the games you're supposed to win (all remaining) and none of this banter matters.
See, this is where I insert "because Chiefs".

They probably should win the rest of the games on the schedule, maybe not in Seattle, but everywhere else.
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Old 11-27-2018, 11:12 AM   #66
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The Rams game had a pretty profound affect on me, honestly. After the Rams scored that last touchdown, all I could think was "Patrick is getting the ball back with almost 2 minutes left and timeouts to burn. They're going to win."

I said it before and I'll say it again - the only thing that can stop Mahomes is Mahomes. This team is making a Super Bowl run. They just are.
I actually cheered a little when the Rams scored that last TD, confident that this was going to be another story in the legend of Patrick Mahomes II. Obviously didn't happen, but I don't think I've ever had that feeling as a Chiefs fan. I definitely still have a little of the "because Chiefs" nag in the back of my head, but PMII is eating away at it quickly.
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Old 11-27-2018, 11:15 AM   #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace View Post
The models generally think that the Pats are our biggest threat to HFA, so universally, if you want HFA, you want the Pats to lose (even against the Steelers). After that, losses to the Steelers and Texans are important, but not as significantly.

If your goal is to avoid disaster by not winning the division, you want the Chargers to lose. That's about all there is to it.

No one else really matters.
The models are correct - NE is our biggest threat to HFA. We need them to lose, lose, and more lose.
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Old 11-27-2018, 11:24 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by O.city View Post
See, this is where I insert "because Chiefs".

They probably should win the rest of the games on the schedule, maybe not in Seattle, but everywhere else.
Seattle honestly doesn't scare me so much.

That's the same team that narrowly defeated AZ, and has lost to both Denver and the Chargers.
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Old 11-27-2018, 02:49 PM   #69
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Tough place to play, they could be on a long winning streak and still playing for their playoff lives.
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Old 11-27-2018, 10:57 PM   #70
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Chargers are going to get curb stomped in Pittsburgh this Sunday. Then they’ll lose to us putting them at 5 losses.

Chargers in Denver in week 17 could decide who gets in the playoffs.
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Old 11-27-2018, 11:00 PM   #71
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Are you still sure that Pittsburgh is even good? They barely squeaked by the Jags and Bengals, and did everything they could to hand Denver the game with as many TO's inside the 20 as I've ever seen. They're a sloppy team that could easily have another three losses.
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Old 11-27-2018, 11:14 PM   #72
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Chargers are going to get curb stomped in Pittsburgh this Sunday.
This is the Chargers "make or break" game...on the road, nationally televised against the Steelers...who just lost. If they win...I'll give them their due...but right now, they are just an over-hyped team that lost to the Donks at home.

Rivers is notorious for choking in high-stakes games...and Gordon is out. If they lose...it'll pretty much end any chance of winning the West. They'll have 3 conference losses vs. KC's one.
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Old 11-27-2018, 11:44 PM   #73
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Chargers are going to get curb stomped in Pittsburgh this Sunday. Then they’ll lose to us putting them at 5 losses.

Chargers in Denver in week 17 could decide who gets in the playoffs.


Chargers are staring at 3 losses which puts them at 10-6. The Denver game could determine seeding(5th or 6th) or even qualifying for the playoffs.
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Old 12-01-2018, 05:05 PM   #74
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Old 12-02-2018, 10:45 PM   #75
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Gained a little ground across the board this week with the win over the Raiders, but not a ton given the wins from the Chargers, Patriots, and Texans.

58% HFA
82% 1st round bye
90% win the division
99%+ make the playoffs
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