Cardinals ***Official 2015 STL Cardinals Thread III.*** - Page 5

**BigRedChief** · 05:00 PM

2011 World Series Championship
2012 NLCS. One win from another WS appearance.
2013 World Series. Two wins from another World Series Championship
2014 NLCS. Three wins from another WS appearance
2015 Central Division title. Won 100 games. Lost in the NLDS.

Made the postseason 11 times in the last 15 seasons.
Only 1 losing season since 2000.
Reached the World Series 4 times since 2004 and won as many championships (two) the past eight seasons as it did from 1965 to 2005.
Made the NLCS 9 times including the last 4 years 2011-2014
Three million attendance? Take it to the bank.
65 post season wins since 2004. 22+ wins more than any other team.

DJ's left nut · 10-13-2015, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

meh, not a big of a lost as Molina.

We were already playing without Molina, even when he was in the lineup.

I'm not entirely certain that Molina is much more than his reputation at this point, especially if there's a veteran hurler on the mound. Molina is a HUGE boost for a guy like Martinez and possibly even Wacha, but for Lackey, Lynn and Garcia, I don't know that he's a real difference maker. Moreover, he's become such a liability at the plate that Cruz - as terrible as he is - probably isn't a real dropoff from what we were going to get from Yadi today.

It sucks, but it is what it is.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 10-13-2015, 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by teedubya

There is something powerful about being a Wildcard team that wins the one game playoff... a WC team has won the WS in 2 of 4 years since they implemented it. Before that, IIRC, only the 2005 White Sox won it as a 4th seed wildcard.

So, of the 8 WC teams that have been around since implementation, two have won the WS, which is 25%

Meanwhile, they also constitute 25% of the "real" playoffs.

Where's the advantage?

'Hamas' Jenkins · 10-13-2015, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The thing is, if you look at the number of playoff appearances they've had over their recent golden streak and then just assume them all to be random coin flips, you'd get about what the Cardinals have had. In fact, they'd probably done far better.

So 12 playoff appearances over the last 15 years and if you just go with random chance you get:

6 NLCS appearances, 3 WS appearances and 1, maybe 2 WS championships.

The real outlier comes with the Cardinals absolute dominance in the LDS. The Cards have made it to the LCS an amazing 9 times, only losing twice in the LDS over that period (so far). In the LCS appearances, they've gone 4-5; so pretty random. In the WS they've gone 2-2.

So to my eyes, they're simply due to start losing in the LCS more often. I'm to the point as a baseball fan that I really do see the MLB post-season as blind !@#$ing luck - a complete crap shoot. There's no rhyme or reason to it at this point.

The way to win a lot of championships is to get a lot of bites at the apple. Make it to the post-season 16 times and over that stretch you should get 2 world championships and 4 pennants out of it. I'd like to believe otherwise, but I've seen too many random outcomes in a short series to believe that the best teams really win in the post-season (including the 2 WS the Cards have won over the last decade).

That's why I'm generally opposed to win-now moves, especially at the deadline. Just make it to the post-season as often as possible and sooner or later things will come together for you.

Unless you're the Giants, in which case you just go Chris Moneymaker three straight times.

jd1020 · 10-13-2015, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

meh, not a big of a lost as Molina.

Molina is in the lineup, at least according to the Cards website.

DJ's left nut · 10-13-2015, 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Unless you're the Giants, in which case you just go Chris Moneymaker three straight times.

!@#$ the Giants.

HOW DID WE GET SMOKED BY BARRY ZITO AND RYAN VOGELSONG!?!?!?!?

God dammit that LCS will piss me off until I die.

teedubya · 10-13-2015, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

So, of the 8 WC teams that have been around since implementation, two have won the WS, which is 25%

Meanwhile, they also constitute 25% of the "real" playoffs.

Where's the advantage?

Well, LOL. No more than 4 of them could have won. Factor in how many of them made the WS.

In the 10 years of just 1 WC team per league... 1 WS champion. In the 4 years of there being 2 WC teams per league, 2 WS champions. And the Royals were a WS participant.

I've not seen the numbers on WS participants being WC.

It just seems like the WC game winners have more momentum and are playing with house money. Just like the Royals last year, and potentially the Cubs tonight.

I'd rather go back to 1 WC team, personally. Even though it benefitted the Royals.

In 1985, we benefitted from going from a 5 game series to a 7 games LCS, as well.

IMO, a 7-game LDS and a 7-Game LCS is better for the teams that had the better record throughout the season. Now the playoffs are a crap shoot.

Just an opinion...

'Hamas' Jenkins · 10-13-2015, 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by teedubya

Well, LOL. No more than 4 of them could have won. Factor in how many of them made the WS.

In the 10 years of just 1 WC team per league... 1 WS champion. In the 4 years of there being 2 WC teams per league, 2 WS champions. And the Royals were a WS participant.

I've not seen the numbers on WS participants being WC.

It just seems like the WC game winners have more momentum and are playing with house money. Just like the Royals last year, and potentially the Cubs tonight.

I'd rather go back to 1 WC team, personally. Even though it benefitted the Royals.

In 1985, we benefitted from going from a 5 game series to a 7 games LCS, as well.

IMO, a 7-game LDS and a 7-Game LCS is better for the teams that had the better record throughout the season. Now the playoffs are a crap shoot.

Just an opinion...

Playoffs have, and will always be, a crapshoot. Even seven games is not a representative sample size in baseball.

If you wanted a true representation of the best team, have it set up the way it was before '69 and then have the two league champions play a 51 game series.

Your numbers are off a little, too.

'97, '02, '03, '04, '11 were all WC teams.

teedubya · 10-13-2015, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Playoffs have, and will always be, a crapshoot. Even seven games is not a representative sample size in baseball.

If you wanted a true representation of the best team, have it set up the way it was before '69 and then have the two league champions play a 51 game series.

Best of 51.

**BigRedChief** · 10-13-2015, 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd1020

Molina is in the lineup, at least according to the Cards website.

Cardinal website is for shit. Molina is out.

**BigRedChief** · 10-13-2015, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

We were already playing without Molina, even when he was in the lineup.

Disagree. I think he made a difference behind the plate on Friday.

**BigRedChief** · 10-13-2015, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd1020

That wont stop if the Cubs lose. They were the 3rd best team in baseball with 4 starting rookies.

Yep, all true. But the Cardinals have won 5 straight NLDS elimination games. 5-0. They have had their backs to the wall and responded.

Lackey reminds me so much of Chris Carpenter. He is a bulldog on the mound. He just wills himself and his teammates to wins.

Hootie · 10-13-2015, 01:46 PM

The Cardinals are simply getting by on pure grit and determination at this point ... I personally think with all of the injuries they are the least talented team left in the entire playoffs.

**BigRedChief** · 10-13-2015, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

The Cardinals are simply getting by on pure grit and determination at this point ... I personally think with all of the injuries they are the least talented team left in the entire playoffs.

I think most Cardinals fans will admit that.

We lost Martinez right before the playoffs. He was an All-Star. He has the best stuff on the team. Wacha and Lynn are tired. Waino doesn't have the arm strength to start. We have Lackey and a fragile Garcia.

We lost Yadi. Holliday and Grichuk are still trying to find their stroke coming off injuries.

If we win, it will only be because their "toughness" overcame talent and momentum.

DJ's left nut · 10-13-2015, 02:29 PM

Losing Martinez was the death knell.

He was the guy with the swagger to go out there and stare down Arrieta. He was the guy that still had some bullets in his gun.

Once he went down, it became very similar to the 2011 post-season except the level of competition in the NL this year is several of orders of magnitude higher than it was in 2011.

Carpenter, chaff and a powerful offense wouldn't have gotten it done this year, let alone Lackey, chaff and a largely popgun offense.

They just don't have the horses and they're running on fumes.

It's disappointing, but it's the reality of it.

**BigRedChief** · 10-13-2015, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Losing Martinez was the death knell.

He was the guy with the swagger to go out there and stare down Arrieta. He was the guy that still had some bullets in his gun.

Once he went down, it became very similar to the 2011 post-season except the level of competition in the NL this year is several of orders of magnitude higher than it was in 2011.

Carpenter, chaff and a powerful offense wouldn't have gotten it done this year, let alone Lackey, chaff and a largely popgun offense.

They just don't have the horses and they're running on fumes.

It's disappointing, but it's the reality of it.

Yep, Martinez could walk the bases loaded and then strike out the side. He has a Cy Young ceiling.

They have always stepped it up another gear come playoff time. But this year they just look tired. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if they win today like Hootie said, they just have too much pride and grit to go down just yet.

10-12-2015, 08:54 PM
BigRedChief Has a particular set of skills Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: On the water Casino cash: $2719627 VARSITY	*Official 2015 STL Cardinals Thread III.* 2011 World Series Championship 2012 NLCS. One win from another WS appearance. 2013 World Series. Two wins from another World Series Championship 2014 NLCS. Three wins from another WS appearance 2015 Central Division title. Won 100 games. Lost in the NLDS. Made the postseason 11 times in the last 15 seasons. Only 1 losing season since 2000. Reached the World Series 4 times since 2004 and won as many championships (two) the past eight seasons as it did from 1965 to 2005. Made the NLCS 9 times including the last 4 years 2011-2014 Three million attendance? Take it to the bank. 65 post season wins since 2004. 22+ wins more than any other team. Last edited by BigRedChief; 10-14-2015 at 05:00 PM..
Posts: 79,277

10-13-2015, 01:46 PM	#72
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	The Cardinals are simply getting by on pure grit and determination at this point ... I personally think with all of the injuries they are the least talented team left in the entire playoffs.
Posts: 56,356

10-13-2015, 02:29 PM	#74
DJ's left nut Sauntering Vaguely Downwards Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Columbia, Mo Casino cash: $2589099	Losing Martinez was the death knell. He was the guy with the swagger to go out there and stare down Arrieta. He was the guy that still had some bullets in his gun. Once he went down, it became very similar to the 2011 post-season except the level of competition in the NL this year is several of orders of magnitude higher than it was in 2011. Carpenter, chaff and a powerful offense wouldn't have gotten it done this year, let alone Lackey, chaff and a largely popgun offense. They just don't have the horses and they're running on fumes. It's disappointing, but it's the reality of it. __________________ "If there's a god, he's laughing at us.....and our football team..." "When you look at something through rose colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags."
Posts: 60,885