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Old 11-02-2015, 05:00 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***



Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:
Spoiler!

Spoiler!

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-17-2015 at 09:49 AM..
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Old 11-24-2015, 11:30 AM   #691
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Other than Zobrist getting some time there if re-signed, at least at the start of the season (unless they do a bad contract swap on Infante), I'd think Parra is an option. And perhaps a trade for someone like Osuna if the price becomes more reasonable.
Golfing Sunday, brought up your arbitration restructure idea. I long advocated some type of 10-20% escrow on all contracts, divvied out after the season based on production. But your way is cleaner and won't cause argument.


But my buddy said: "Don't you get it? Hitting it big is the American Dream. They are ok being screwed early because they all believe they'll hit the jackpot year 7. It's how lotteries sell tickets, why socialism gets voted down. They sit next to Omar Infante and know he's getting 8M and that makes them ok waiting for FA."
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Old 11-24-2015, 11:43 AM   #692
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Old 11-24-2015, 11:46 AM   #693
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Golfing Sunday, brought up your arbitration restructure idea. I long advocated some type of 10-20% escrow on all contracts, divvied out after the season based on production. But your way is cleaner and won't cause argument.


But my buddy said: "Don't you get it? Hitting it big is the American Dream. They are ok being screwed early because they all believe they'll hit the jackpot year 7. It's how lotteries sell tickets, why socialism gets voted down. They sit next to Omar Infante and know he's getting 8M and that makes them ok waiting for FA."
It's going to be interesting to see how it works out long term.

If teams start being "smarter" about long-term deals for guys in their 30s, and the FA dollars start drying up, it may open some eyes on the payday issue.

Ultimately, I hope it stays the way it is, because it helps level the playing field for teams like KC.
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Old 11-24-2015, 01:32 PM   #694
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It absolutely helps KC. These dipshit big markets blow their loads on "stars" and they immediately turn into pumpkins. We bargain-shop and get the same productivity (in 2015 it was much higher).


That said, I was all wrong about younger players demanding a bigger slice. I didn't factor in the American dreamer. The jackpot is out there. And it's too alluring for young guys, many who have no college or much money sense. Plus agents tell them to NEVER sign away arb years - they're a huge factor here too.
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Old 11-24-2015, 02:08 PM   #695
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
It absolutely helps KC. These dipshit big markets blow their loads on "stars" and they immediately turn into pumpkins. We bargain-shop and get the same productivity (in 2015 it was much higher).


That said, I was all wrong about younger players demanding a bigger slice. I didn't factor in the American dreamer. The jackpot is out there. And it's too alluring for young guys, many who have no college or much money sense. Plus agents tell them to NEVER sign away arb years - they're a huge factor here too.
It works until one big-market team starts using small market values. Then it blows everything up.
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Old 11-24-2015, 03:23 PM   #696
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Hosmer crushes the rest of the league in "clutch". http://www.fangraphs.com/community/e...in-the-league/

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The statistic “Clutch” quantifies how much better or worse a batter performs in high-leverage situations compared to a neutral situation. This does not necessarily make or break a good player. However, the statistic can show the track record of a player’s ability (or inability) to elevate his own game in big moments. The scale is centered at an average player clutch rating of 0 and typically ranges from -2 to 2 in any given season, with 2 being considered both a rare and excellent rating. This statistic is better used to look at what has happened in the past rather than predict the future. To my surprise, Hosmer has dominated the clutch leader boards the last five years. Not Miggy, not Longo, not Big Papi. Hosmer.

Since his debut season in 2011, Hosmer has a cumulative clutch rating of 5.49 while the league average has been -0.38 according to fangraphs.com. The second-highest in that time span? Jacoby Ellsbury at 4.41, over a full point away. To this point in his career, Hosmer has a cumulative clutch rating that ranks 22nd in baseball history. He is ahead of legends such as Ken Griffey (5.35), Rickey Henderson (4.91), and fellow Royal George Brett (4.79). His 2015 campaign that yielded a clutch rating of 2.17 was one of the top 100 greatest clutch seasons ever recorded (tied for 63rd). Although there is no way to prove Hosmer will remain a clutch hitter, he is currently on pace to smash the all-time highest career clutch rating set by Hall-of-Famer Tony Gwynn (9.49).
Maybe A-rod was onto something after all.
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Old 11-24-2015, 03:41 PM   #697
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Another pitcher I'd look at is Tim Lincecum. I just read something today about his comeback attempt, that he's feeling well. Would think a 1-year "prove it" deal with our defense in that park would be appealing.
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Old 11-24-2015, 04:33 PM   #698
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Hosmer crushes the rest of the league in "clutch". http://www.fangraphs.com/community/e...in-the-league/



Maybe A-rod was onto something after all.
Which is why his power numbers won't keep anyone away from offering him a giant contract after the 2017 season. He's going to get an 8/$184MM type deal.
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Old 11-24-2015, 08:45 PM   #699
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Has any free agent of note signed? If this was the NFL all the big names would be gone by now
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Old 11-24-2015, 10:29 PM   #700
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Its a bit slow now.

But on a side note I had a Bricks sighting today in a chiefs related thread.
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Old 11-25-2015, 11:35 AM   #701
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Another pitcher I'd look at is Tim Lincecum. I just read something today about his comeback attempt, that he's feeling well. Would think a 1-year "prove it" deal with our defense in that park would be appealing.
Not a bad lottery ticket to scratch if could be gotten cheaply enough . . . .

Maybe big incentive laden contract?

1 year/ 8 mil., potential to make up to $12-13 mil. ???
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Old 11-25-2015, 12:48 PM   #702
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All starts with "team leader" Jose Bautista. Who is a dick and sets the tone of dickishness for the entire team.
I don't have a big problem with the way he flips his bat. It's a little dickish, but I can also understand it. But the way he totally misplayed the pop fly in shallow right field, let it drop in front of him while he stood there flat-footed, and then blamed the whole thing on Ryan Goins after the game was total dickishness.

He is a ****ing douchebag.
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Old 11-25-2015, 12:54 PM   #703
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I don't have a big problem with the way he flips his bat. It's a little dickish, but I can also understand it. But the way he totally misplayed the pop fly in shallow right field, let it drop in front of him while he stood there flat-footed, and then blamed the whole thing on Ryan Goins after the game was total dickishness.

He is a ****ing douchebag.
Him being an asshole has nothing to do with his bat flips. I don't have any problem with that.
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Old 11-25-2015, 01:03 PM   #704
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Old 11-25-2015, 10:21 PM   #705
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I saw an idea floated online that the Brewers might be interested in flipping bad contracts with the Royals by trading Matt Garza to KC for Omar Infante.

Think it makes a lot of sense. Garza struggled quite a bit in Milwaukee but would be a definite bounceback candidate in KC.
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