*** Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository

[duncan_idaho]

The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one.

Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time?

Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository!

Royals Top Prospects, 2017

This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services.

Spoiler!

Format: POS/Name/2017 Projected Final Level

1) 3B/OF Hunter Dozier, MLB. Dozier bounced back from a disastrous 2015 campaign that had many wondering, myself included, if he was wrecked. His strong offensive performance in 2016 saw Dozier recapture the mature approach that many liked coming up, while also starting to tap into his above-average raw power for the first time.

In addition to his success at the plate, Dozier also proved he could at least HANDLE an OF spot, which could put him in the conversation for 2017 playing time at the major leagues. If the Royals DO end up trading Cheslor Cuthbert, Dozier could find a decent amount of MLB playing time sliding between RF and 3B. With Moustakas recovering from knee surgery, he likely will need more regular breaks from the field. And the streaky Paulo Orlando is just not an intriguing short-side platoon partner for Jarrod Dyson.

2) LHP Matt Strahm, MLB. Strahm just barely skates under the rookie eligibility rules for a pitcher, so he can be included here. Royals fans already got a taste of the lefty’s abilities, as he used his above-average fastball and slurve to dominate out of the pen in 2016. For him to translate that dominance to the rotation, Strahm will need to maintain his velocity (92-94) and continue to improve a changeup that flashed average at times.

If the changeup becomes a weapon he can lean on against righties, Strahm could be a very solid mid-rotation starter and fringe ToR/No. 2 type (think Danny Duffy-lite).

3) RHP Josh Staumont, AAA. This one could blow up on me and look really silly by this time next year, but I’m encouraged by what we saw from Staumont late last year. He showed significantly improved control down the stretch for Northwest Arkansas, including some impressive playoff starts, while maintaining the big-time K ability. That trend continued in the Arizona Fall League.

If Staumont’s control holds, the Royals have a guy with a plus fastball, plus-plus curve, and average change (with a slider that could develop into a real weapon as he matures). He’ll start next season at AAA and could be an addition to the MLB bullpen or even the rotation before the season ends.

4) RF Jorge Bonifacio, AAA. Boni, like Dozier, had a bounceback season in 2016 with the bat, and also played 15-20 pounds lighter than the year before, which added some nice defensive utility according to reports I’ve gotten. He now looks like a guy could provide solid/average RF production in the major leagues… Average defense paired with potential to put up a .275/.335/.450 line. While that’s not all-star level, it IS playable. Especially at pre-arbitration dollars. He’ll get another year in Omaha to refine his approach, and likely be in the mix of a 2018 mini-youth movement… unless moved for MLB reinforcements.

5) C Meibrys Viloria, Low-A (Lexington). I haven’t seen him in person, but I like the pedigree. You’ve got a lefthanded hitting catcher with the defensive ability to stick behind the plate. He was a big-bonus guy out of Colombia (nearly $500k). And his offensive performance has been highly impressive early, with a good combination of power, plate discipline, and contact skills.

He’s forever away from the majors, just now clearing rookie ball, but Viloria is the most exciting prospect KC has had at Idaho Falls since someone on this board was gushing about a 16-year-old SS tearing it up.

6) 1B Ryan O’Hearn, AAA. O’Hearn is a guy who has never gotten a lot of hype from scouts, but he continues to be a strong producer. He’s someone who likely will strikeout about 25 percent of the time at the big-league level, but has the ability to be a .500+ SLG guy. That plays. He also has shown good patience at the plate, posting above-average OBPs at every level.

Bold prediction: I won’t be shocked if O’Hearn takes over at 1B for KC in 2018/2019 and provides similar offensive production to Hosmer out of the gate. He’s probably never going to be a consistent plus average (.290+) hitter, but .270 with 25 HR is something within reach for him. He’ll get his first shot at AAA in 2017.

7) RHP AJ Puckett, A+. Puckett is a high floor, low-ceiling guy who performed about as you’d expect in 2016 after being the Royals’ first pick in the 2016 Rule IV Draft. He’s not flashy, but Puckett does profile as a solid potential back-end starter. Good fastball command and an above-average changeup are his calling cards. If Puckett finds a reliable breaking ball to put batters away, this could tick up. Great athlete, very similar to Jake Odorizzi in that regard.

8) RF Khalil Lee, Low-A (Lexington). Lee was a two-way player in HS and many viewed him as a pitcher first as a pro, but the Royals drafted him as an OF and were reward with a strong debut campaign. Lee is not a big guy, but he produced solid power numbers despite that. He’s a dynamic athlete who could contribute with power and speed.

9) C Chase Vallot, High-A (Wilmington). Vallot has an intriguing bat, with plus raw power. Got off to a great start in 16 before being sidelined and then sidetracked by injury. RH bat may be good enough to push him out from behind the plate, where he has good tools but a long way to go.

10) RHP Jake Junis and RHP Alec Mills (AAA). I'm copping out here and including both at No. 10 because they're so similar. Like Puckett, they each project as a serviceable back of rotation starter. Similar stuff and profiles, though Junis has shown a little better strikeout ability and may have a smidge more upside as a result.

Others of note:

SS/CF Marten Gasparini. Production has been bad for this toolsy player, but Gasparini has speed and pop that jump out at you. At only 19, need to be patient with him... this European signee was even less polished when signing at 16 than the typical Latin America prospect.

OF Seuly Matias. Loud, loud tools. Matias profiles as a classic RF... big-time power potential. He's a long ways from the majors but is one of the Royals' biggest bonus babies from LA.

RHP Ashe Russell. 2014 1st rounder saw his velocity disappear last year and was quickly shut down. He's intriguing one way or the other, even if he ends up as another notch in the belt of the TINSTAAPP saying.

2B Corey Toups. O'Hearn's HS teammate has been an above-average producer for an up-the-middle player. His small stature hides a surprising amount of pop. Could turn into a Mark Grudzielanek type of offensive second baseman at his peak - solid average, lots of 2Bs.

RHP Scott Blewett, LHP Foster Griffin, RHP Nolan Watson - all three have underwhelmed as pros but were drafted in the supplemental round. Stuff and projectability for each is a positive. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of them take a Cody Reed-like step forward this season and crack the 50-75 range on prospect lists. They all have the natural ability.

SS/2B Ricky Aracena - Jose Altuve-sized Aracena is a switch hitting middle infielder who can flat out run. Switch hitter with a good approach.

RHP Pedro Fernandez - I'm still a believer in his stuff, even if he is destined for the pen. Was having a nice 2016 start until injuries derailed him right after his promotion to AA.

Sirs not Appearing in this Prospect List:

RHP Kyle Zimmer. Same story, different year. The Royals are hopeful they FINALLY found the cause of Zimmer's achy shoulder. If they really did, and he can stay healthy, the talent/potential is exciting.

OF Bubba Starling. Never trust a guy named Derek.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Mecca

That's still pretty marginal for losing a top notch player when it use to mean 2 high level picks...

Still think that this leads to a lot more trades.

It hasn't been 2 high level picks for 6-7 years. And really, under the old system, relievers were rarely considered 'comp A' players anyway. More often than not you got the Comp B pick which was just a sandwich pick.

Davis might have been considered a Comp A but it's not a given.

It's a little less valuable than it would've been last year, but not a lot; changes the value by maybe 6 spots. And as has already been noted, the value of a sandwich pick now is more than it used to be because of the slotting system. That sandwich pick allows you to leverage your draft pool better and pursue a guy that slid due to financial demands (like Kopech) who'd have otherwise been snapped up by a big-money team that could offer him the moon.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

Power is an expensive tool and one the Royals lack significantly. If Soler were an established 30 HR guy, Davis alone wouldn't have fetched him.

Trading a one-year closer with iffy health for four affordable years of a 25-year-old bat with power potential is eminently defensible.

I agree. I was thinking, "would they have dealt Soler after 2014 straight up?" Even after Wades dominant season? I say no.

1. Soler was the #12 prospect in MLB. Those guys never come cheap.
2. He had a great debut, 8HR in under 200 AB. ~4WAR pace
3. Controlled


He hasn't put it together since, but at 25 he has a lot of time left to blow up.

[Codered]

Count me in the group that isn't leaping for joy if the Davis for Soler trade is straight up like rumored. I didn't expect the Chapman haul, but a one for one trade for Soler?

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Yeah. Just a little surprised/disappointed. Big change in expectation in 12 hours span.



The only change with the compensation is that teams no longer lose first-round picks awarded for finish if they sign a free agent who received a QO.

So instead of your comp pick sliding up each time that happens (typically between 6-10 in a year), it just stays at 30 or later. You lose about 500k-1 million in draft pool money for having the lower pick.

Not true.

Losing teams arent guaranteed the same return they were before. The player has to sign a contract of more than $50M and there is probably a good chance that Davis wont see that contract and the declining QO would only return a pick that comes after competitive balance pick B (2nd round).

[siberian khatru]

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz

@JohnSheaHey: Melvin on Dyson: "Whether or not that happens, I don’t know. But potentially, he’d be a good fit for us."

See, this worries me more than the Davis for Soler deal. I'm just afraid we won't get back anything as valuable as Dyson gives us. It's not like Dyson's expensive and we have to dump his salary.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

It hasn't been 2 high level picks for 6-7 years. And really, under the old system, relievers were rarely considered 'comp A' players anyway. More often than not you got the Comp B pick which was just a sandwich pick.

Davis might have been considered a Comp A but it's not a given.

It's a little less valuable than it would've been last year, but not a lot; changes the value by maybe 6 spots. And as has already been noted, the value of a sandwich pick now is more than it used to be because of the slotting system. That sandwich pick allows you to leverage your draft pool better and pursue a guy that slid due to financial demands (like Kopech) who'd have otherwise been snapped up by a big-money team that could offer him the moon.

Why is baseball's system so complicated when I don't pay super close attention to it? lol

Anyhow at the end of this it comes down to the Royals deciding instead of one last run they don't want to lose everyone for draft picks I guess.

[Great Expectations]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Let's just be honest, these draft pick rules were changed to make the trade deadline exciting again. If a bunch of teams know they will get marginal shit picks for their star players they won't keep they'll be more inclined to make some trades.

It changed to help the big markets dominate again and help players make more money. More teams will be interested in signing players with a QO therefore driving up salaries.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

I agree. I was thinking, "would they have dealt Soler after 2014 straight up?" Even after Wades dominant season? I say no.

1. Soler was the #12 prospect in MLB. Those guys never come cheap.
2. He had a great debut, 8HR in under 200 AB. ~4WAR pace
3. Controlled


He hasn't put it together since, but at 25 he has a lot of time left to blow up.

For what it's worth, as a Cards fan, I'm glad to see Soler gone.

If he just learns to spit on high quality breaking balls from RHers, he's Nelson Cruz waiting to happen. He can turn on good heat, even from righties (not great heat, but good heat). And his improved walk rate suggests that his batting eye is getting better.

Some guys simply don't have the wrists to be a powerful, all-fields hitter that can take any pitchers best pitch and drive it. Soler's one of those guys. But those guys can still be dangerous if they learn to stay ahead in the count and simply ignore that pitchers pitch while they wait for a better offering.

My biggest worry if I were a Royals fan would be what the park does to his power. That said, Soler's one of those guys who's power would play at Yellowstone. He doesn't hit a lot of wall-scrapers. Most of the ones he puts out are out just about anywhere.

There may be an adjustment period but I think you guys will ultimately get a legitimate cleanup hitter for several years here. If his walk rate slides, he's still a good 5 hitter. And for a guy with the number of miles on his arm that Davis has in an environment where the 2 best relievers in baseball are both FAs, that's pretty damn decent.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Why is baseball's system so complicated when I don't pay super close attention to it? lol

Anyhow at the end of this it comes down to the Royals deciding instead of one last run they don't want to lose everyone for draft picks I guess.

It isn't that complicated.

Give a guy a QO and if he gets more than $50 million, you get a pick somewhere in the 30s. The slotting system is interesting but it's also a great way to separate the men from the boys in the front office. The teams that have learned to use the slotting system well are miles ahead of the teams that haven't (look no further than Dave Stewart in Arizona; holy shit was that guy in over his head).

[Jerok]

So who is rooting for a Soler vs Wade game 7 9th inning World Series matchup?

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Jerok

So who is rooting for a Soler vs Wade game 7 9th inning World Series matchup?

Deal isn't done yet.

I'm secretly hoping that something comes up in Wades medicals that scare the Cubs off, because I'd rather see Soler packaged with some minor leaguers to get a young #3+ starter, because the Cubs are going to be ****ed going into 2018.

They were rumored to be loading up for that Otani kid, but with the new CBA it's unlikely you'll see him coming over next year.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Not true.

Losing teams arent guaranteed the same return they were before. The player has to sign a contract of more than $50M and there is probably a good chance that Davis wont see that contract and the declining QO would only return a pick that comes after competitive balance pick B (2nd round).

The guarantee for players who sign $50 million or more deals hasn't changed much at all.

Davis is getting $50 million or more unless he has Tommy John this year. So that's a moot point.

Either he's healthy and his usual dominant self, gets the QO, and signs a FA deal somewhere between Melancon and Chapman/Jensen... or he's not and you're getting nothing regardless (because you're not offering the QO).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

The guarantee for players who sign $50 million or more deals hasn't changed much at all.

Davis is getting $50 million or more unless he has Tommy John this year. So that's a moot point.

Either he's healthy and his usual dominant self, gets the QO, and signs a FA deal somewhere between Melancon and Chapman/Jensen... or he's not and you're getting nothing regardless (because you're not offering the QO).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Even if he manages to escape TJ surgery, if he spends even a little bit on the DL he wont see $50M. He wont get the years.

Melancon, Jansen, and Chapman each have 300+ innings less pitched than Davis.

[Chiefspants]

At the end of the day, I trust GMDM. It's inevitably going to be difficult to see our World Series pieces say goodbye.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Even if he manages to escape TJ surgery, if he spends even a little bit on the DL he wont see $50M. He wont get the years.

Melancon, Jansen, and Chapman each have 300+ innings less pitched than Davis.

It'll be tight, but if he hits the DL and makes it back to end the season, I would expect he could still get 3 years. With Melancon getting a tick better than $15 million per and regular ol' salary inflation, I see no reason why Davis couldn't hit the $16.5 range on a 3 year deal if he was sound most of the year and his medicals check out.

But I'll be honest - I expect TJ.