*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***

[duncan_idaho]

Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

No real point in placing stock in these until each team has set the roster, but it is once again demonstrative of how much projection systems love certain profiles.

That Cleveland number is rather silly, considering the holes that team still has.

What holes might those be? DH and loogy?


I assume DM will do exactly what he did last year and sit out the first wave of FA and then sign a guy or two. Then so the same after wave 2. Have to find the Kendrys/Volq types who will go 2 years. That's a Parra or Pelfrey or Bud Norris. I'm already marking off Gordon and Zo and Madson as no ways and Chris Young as doubtful, as in they don't even want to match anything over a year on him .

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

What holes might those be? DH and loogy?


I assume DM will do exactly what he did last year and sit out the first wave of FA and then sign a guy or two. Then so the same after wave 2. Have to find the Kendrys/Volq types who will go 2 years. That's a Parra or Pelfrey or Bud Norris. I'm already marking off Gordon and Zo and Madson as no ways and Chris Young as doubtful, as in they don't even want to match anything over a year on him .

Brantley is going to miss a good part of the year. Abraham Almonte is currently their starting CF (Jarrod Dyson would be a major upgrade). Lonnie Chisenhall is a below-average RF.

Their starting 1B is Giovanni Urshele, another JAG with a career .710 OPS in the minor leagues.

Carlos Santana is an OK bat but a horrible defensive 1B, and as you mentioned, they need another DH/1B type.

Their starting rotation is good, and they have a top 5-10 closer, but middle relief is nothing special.

So yeah, I'd say they have some holes. And they have no money to spend to plug any of them, and the only option they have for that is trading one of Carrasco or Salazar to fill it.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat

Sources: O’Day asking for four-year deal in $28M to $36M range. Most accomplished reliever on open market.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 18, 2015

4 for 32 sounds pretty good.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

4 for 32 sounds pretty good.

That sounds awful for a 33 yr old reliever.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

4 for 32 sounds pretty good.

Good if someone in our division is dumb enough to do it.

[BigCatDaddy]

Sounds about right. 2-3 years if sub 2.0 era and maybe 1-2 years of 2.5 maybe. Maybe 3-24.

[Sure-Oz]

Look at post below

[Sure-Oz]

@FlannyMLB: #Royals plan for Bubba Starling: Major League debut next year, starter by 2017. http://atmlb.com/1YhAELd via @mlb

http://m.royals.mlb.com/news/article...?tcid=tw_share

Starling gaining steam with solid AFL season

By*Jeffrey Flanagan*/*MLB.com*|*6:41 PM ET

KANSAS CITY -- Outfielder Bubba Starling, the fifth overall pick of the 2011 Draft and considered a disappointment until recently, keeps inching closer to the big leagues.

Starling, the Royals'*No. 5 prospect, is having a solid season in the Arizona Fall League, posting a .770 OPS with four homers and 10 RBIs to go along with his defense that general manager Dayton Moore has described as "Major League ready" right now.

Starling, 23, most likely will start next season back at Double-A Northwest Arkansas. But the goal is to have him advance quickly to Triple-A Omaha and then to his Major League debut in 2016.

And by 2017?

"Hopefully a regular in the big leagues," Royals vice president/assistant general manager of player personnel J.J. Picollo told MLB.com.

The rapid ascension of Starling has brought smiles to the faces of the Royals' front-office staff.

"He's just a different hitter now than what we saw of him a few years ago," Picollo said. "There haven't been many major mechanical adjustments. He did have this little waggle with his hands when he was loading that used to slow down his swing and made him late on everything.

"We worked with him to get rid of that, and finally last year we saw that happen. He's just quicker to the ball. He's more confident, more mature."

After being promoted to Double-A this past season, Starling had a .744 OPS there with 10 homers and 32 RBIs in 91 games for the Naturals.

"You combine that with what he did in the Fall League," Picollo said, "and you can see him turning a corner. He'll get a Spring Training invite and we'll see how it proceeds from there. He's getting close."

Another prospect who had a strong AFL was right-hander Brooks Pounders, a 6-foot-5, 268-pounder who was acquired in a Minor League deal with the Pirates in 2011.

Pounders threw 12 shutout innings over three starts in the AFL and had a 0.42 WHIP.

Pounders presently is pitching for Team USA in Tokyo, where he is joined by two Royals prospects, catcher Parker Morin and outfielder Brett Eibner.

"Brooks really is having a great fall," Picollo said. "He's a guy that can throw 91-93 [mph] consistently and go find 95 when he needs it. His slider is his out-pitch.

"Right now, we view him as a potential starter, but he could be one of those guys that if converted to the bullpen, he could go get 95-97 [mph]."

Jeffrey Flanagan*is a reporter for MLB.com. Follow him on Twitter at*@FlannyMLB. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

[CaliforniaChief]

That's pretty exciting re: Starling. That would be HUGE.

[CaliforniaChief]

Makes me wonder if Zobrist is indeed the priority. Let Infante start at 2B, bring in Parra in RF, let Zobrist hold down LF, and then if we can offload Infante mid-season (if he does anything and we eat some $, we move Zobrist to 2B full-time and Starling takes over in LF.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief

Makes me wonder if Zobrist is indeed the priority. Let Infante start at 2B, bring in Parra in RF, let Zobrist hold down LF, and then if we can offload Infante mid-season (if he does anything and we eat some $, we move Zobrist to 2B full-time and Starling takes over in LF.

Probably better off flipping Parra and Zobrist. But otherwise, not far from what the team might be thinking.

All depends on how he hits to start the year. If I'm the team, I probably try to send him to winter ball. Get him more ABs.

[ChiefsCountry]

Pull the Hootie platoon with Zobrist, Dyson and Infante.

[Prison Bitch]

Is a 770 ops in afl really all that great? I thought the competition there was weak

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Is a 770 ops in afl really all that great? I thought the competition there was weak

It's not great, but JJ Cooper's remarks about it are worth watching.

I don't think THIS requires a sub.

Clifs:

Last year he looked completely hopeless and overmatched. This year, he does not.

The hit tool has improved a lot, and if he can just be average or slightly below with the hit tool (35-40), Starling will be a quality MLB regular because of his power and defense and baserunning.

I don't think Starling is ready to be a star out of ST 2016, and I expect he'll struggle some at AAA when promoted, but he's come a long way. Basically, he's gone from looking like a guy who was so helpless at the plate he would NEVER get it, to looking like a guy who belongs.

That's more important, in sample sizes this small, than raw numbers.

[WhawhaWhat]

SB Nation 2015 Off-season Simulation summary

Have you ever thought your team’s GM made a stupid trade? Paid too much for a free agent? Wish you had the opportunity to run the team more effectively? I gave the opportunity to 30 fans to run their team how they saw fit in an Offseason Simulation, cramming an entire winter of transactions into four days. I gave each team a recommended budget and asked them to negotiate with each other on trades, and with me on free agents.

Kansas City Royals

• Exercised the options on Wade Davis and Alcides Escobar
• Declined the options on Jeremy Guthrie, Alex Rios, and Jonny Gomes
• Alex Gordon declined his player option
• Non-tendered Greg Holland, Louis Coleman, Tim Collins, and Drew Butera
• Acquired Charlie Morton from Pittsburgh for Omar Infante, Brett Eibner and Sam Selman
• Acquired Oswaldo Arcia from Minnesota for Andy Ferguson and Michael Mariot
• Signed Alex Gordon to a 5 year, $105 million deal with incentives
• Signed Howie Kendrick to a 3 year, $36 million deal
• Signed Chris Young to a one year, $5 million deal with a $5 million club option ($1 million buyout)
• Signed Justin Ruggiano to a 1 year, $2 million deal
• Signed Oliver Perez to a 1 year, $1.75 million deal
• Signed Jason Frasor to a 1 year, $1 million deal
• Signed Erik Kratz, Louis Coleman, Jeremy Guthrie, Chad Billingsley, and Shaun Marcum to minor league deals

Recommended Budget: $125 million
Final Payroll: $128.6 million

Every team is represented but I just thought it was interesting so see the Royals theoretical moves from the exercise.