Chiefs A Saturday analysis of AFC West Drafting in the Dorsey era. - Page 4

**Rain Man** · 08:24 PM

Using data from our friends at profootballreference, I downloaded the 2013-2016 drafts of the four AFC West teams. (I left 2017 out since the only thing we know about those players at this point is that Mahomes is Favre Reincarnated and Bolles is Forrest Gump.)

I then sorted them by where the players were selected in the draft, and compared their "Career Average Value" as calculated by profootballreference.

I made one adjustment to the numbers. I took the 2016 players and multiplied their AV by 4, the 2015 players by 2, and the 2014 players by 1.3 so that all players are essentially being measured on a four-year basis. This may understate and/or destabilize the contributions of younger players who have had less time to capture a starting role.

I'll cover each round in a post, and I'll split the first round into two parts since there's presumably a bigger talent spread there. In each round I'll list the team, player, pick#, Adjusted CarAV, and position.

So let's start with the top half of Round 1. Here are the players who were selected along with their Adjusted Career AV.

Code:

Team	Player	Pick	Adjusted CarAV	Pos
KC	Eric Fisher	1	27	T
SD	Joey Bosa	3	24	DE
Oak	Amari Cooper	4	38	WR
Oak	Khalil Mack	5	48	LB
SD	D.J. Fluker	11	29	T
Oak	D.J. Hayden	12	10	DB
Oak	Karl Joseph	14	16	S
SD	Melvin Gordon	15	30	RB

Average points per pick:

Oakland 28
San Diego, er, Los Angeles 28
Kansas City 27
Denver N/A

Oakland has had a lot of picks, and have both the best and worst. Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper are the highest rated guys in this group, even though we all know that Cooper is overrated. However, Oakland also has the least productive guys with their two defensive backs.

This group is primarily an Oakland and San Diego...er, Los Angeles show. Eric Fisher is the only exception, and he's ranked 5th of the 8 as part of a big clump in the middle.

Go to Post 2 for the back half of the round, and then the first several posts work through each subsequent round.

Eureka · 06-04-2017, 03:13 AM

The Raiders hit on the draft pick that counts the most and didn't have to give up any additional picks.

I wonder how this drafting theory will work out for KC in a few years after giving up picks for Mahomes. Hopefully KC hit on that pick.

Quesadilla Joe · 06-04-2017, 07:19 AM

Elway's first two drafts were legendary and were the reason Denver won Super Bowl 50.

**jjchieffan** · 06-04-2017, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vailpass

Insert playoff wins, SB appearances, SB wins here.
All that matters is the meal. Nobody cares where the ingredients came from.

In other words, I'm a Donks fan. We get our championships by cheating. But we're good with that because we have no conscience, just like the team we root for.

Tombstone RJ · 06-04-2017, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjchieffan

In other words, I'm a Donks fan. We get our championships by cheating. But we're good with that because we have no conscience, just like the team we root for.

Loser's mentality with clown shoes starting to glow...

**jjchieffan** · 06-04-2017, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ

Loser's mentality with clown shoes starting to glow...

Circus BJ with the only lame analogy he can up with. I'm sorry that your daddy was a clown and that your team colors match his clown outfit, but please try to come up with something original. Your clown comments are just getting sad. And take your cheaters mentality to the mange.

**wazu** · 06-04-2017, 10:25 AM

Awesome work, Rainman! Definitely brings some optimism to see this trend.

Tombstone RJ · 06-04-2017, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjchieffan

Circus BJ with the only lame analogy he can up with. I'm sorry that your daddy was a clown and that your team colors match his clown outfit, but please try to come up with something original. Your clown comments are just getting sad. And take your cheaters mentality to the mange.

Your constant name calling and and kc-fan-victim mentality does get tiring. All I know is posters like you must live in a make believe world, so the clown references reflect your 2 year old child-like posts

**jjchieffan** · 06-04-2017, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ

Your constant name calling and and kc-fan-victim mentality does get tiring. All I know is posters like you must live in a make believe world, so the clown references reflect your 2 year old child-like posts

Is that the best defense that you can come up with??? We have a victim mentality?? We live in a make believe reality?? That's pretty sad. You can't deny the facts, so instead you try to turn the tables and make us look like we're making it up. And you say we're living in s fantasy world?? Really??

. You poor soul. You are truly worse than KnowShit. And I didn't think that was possible. Get help man. Maybe CP will start a GoFundMe to help pay for your therapist.

Pasta Little Brioni · 06-04-2017, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quesadilla Joe

Elway's first two drafts were legendary and were the reason Denver won Super Bowl 50.

No, he bought Manning which brought in the FAs and the buy in from the league to gift Manning a retirement present. Dumb****. Manning doesn't break his neck, you are nothing.

Sweet Daddy Hate · 06-04-2017, 12:58 PM

Did anyone catch the "8 teams on their way to obscurity" piece a few days ago?

Very bad news for the Dunks.

RunKC · 06-04-2017, 01:06 PM

This chart shows that the Chiefs and Raiders have the best management in the division and will be successful in the long term.

Squalor2 · 06-04-2017, 01:42 PM

nice stuff rainman. have you done this with other conferences? and could you extrapolate this to w/l records each year? id buy you a frosty.

**Rain Man** · 06-04-2017, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Squalor2

nice stuff rainman. have you done this with other conferences? and could you extrapolate this to w/l records each year? id buy you a frosty.

Oh, I love frosties.

I may do this with other teams just for comparison. It would be interesting.

**Rain Man** · 06-04-2017, 02:45 PM

Okay, I've been doing the alternate reality draft over in the casino forum since 2009. I took my own picks over the 2013-2016 time period to see how I'd compare against the guys who get paid for it. Recall that here are the controlled scores for the AFC West teams.

Chiefs - 94
Raiders - 86
Chargers - 67
Broncos - 58

So if you look at my seven-round scores, here they are by round.

Round Score
1 38.0
2 15.4
3 14.9
4 8.0
5 3.0
6 5.0
7 1.2
Total 85.6

So essentially, a studious guy with a draft magazine ranks 2nd in the division. (I'm going to list myself above the Raiders in the order even though it's a tie.)

Chiefs - 94
Rain Man - 86
Raiders - 86
Chargers - 67
Broncos - 58

Haha. Elway is an idiot. He can't even come close to the score of a guy who invests $9 a year in scouting.

Here are my picks if you're curious, followed by adjusted CareerAV. I drafted these guys right after the NFL draft every year and before training camp.

2013 Draft
Adjusted AV
Round 1 - 13th Pick - Star Lotulelei, DT (Panthers) 28
Round 2 - 34th Pick - Geno Smith, QB (Jets) 15
Round 2 - 39th Pick - Menelik Watson, OT (Raiders) 9
Round 3 - 63rd Pick - Travis Kelce, TE (Chiefs) 28
Round 3 - 72nd Pick - Brandon Williams, DT (Ravens) 24
Round 3 - 96th Pick - Tyler Wilson, QB (Raiders) 0
Round 4 - 99th Pick - Denard Robinson, RB/KR (Jaguars) 8
Round 5 - 134th Pick - Jesse Williams, DT (Seahawks) 0
Round 5 - 141st Pick - A.J. Klein, ILB (Panthers) 13
Round 6 - 170th Pick - Bacarri Rambo, FS (Redskins) 8
Round 6 - 204th Pick - Jordan Poyer, CB (Eagles) 6

2014 Draft

Round 2 - 44th Pick - Cyrus Kouandjio, OT (Bills) 8
Round 2 - 56th Pick - Morgan Moses, OT (Redskins) 27
Round 3 - 87th Pick - Donte Moncrief, WR (Colts) 17
Round 4 - 124th Pick - David Yankey, G (Vikings).* 0
Round 5 - 153rd Pick - Ed Reynolds, FS (Eagles) 4
Round 5 - 163rd Pick - Ronald Powell, OLB (Saints).* 1
Round 6 - 200th Pick - Daniel McCullers, NT (Steelers).* 4
Round 7 - 221st Pick - Trevor Reilly, OLB (Jets).* 3
Round 7 - 238th Pick - Trey Millard, FB (49ers). 0

2015 Draft

Round 1 - 18th Pick - CB Marcus Peters (Chiefs) 48
Round 2 - 49th Pick - OLB Nate Orchard (Browns) 10
Round 3 - 80th Pick. CB Steve Nelson (Chiefs) 12
Round 4 - 98th Pick - OT TJ Clemmings (Vikings) 28
(Traded Round 5 - 146th pick) - QB Brett Hundley (Packers) 0
Round 5 - 154th Pick - I am accepting the trade for G Ben Grubbs. 0
Round 5 - 172nd Pick - FS Derron Smith (Bengals) 4
Round 5 - 173rd Pick - DT Michael Bennett (Jaguars) 2
Round 6 - 193rd Pick - C Andy Gallik (Titans) 6
Round 6 - 217th Pick - TE Ben Koyack (Jaguars) 2
Round 7 - 228th Pick, acquired in trade down - FS Gerod Holliman (Steelers)* 0
Round 7 - 232nd Pick, acquired in trade down - OT Corey Robinson (Lions) 6
Round 7 - 233rd Pick - CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (Browns) 0

2016

2-25 (56th pick) - G Cody*Whitehair*(Bears) 24
3-11 (74th pick) - CB Kendall Fuller (Redskins) 8
4-8 (106th pick) - SS Miles Killebrew (Lions) 4
4-15 (113th pick) - NT Andrew Billings (Bengals) 0
4-28 (126th pick) - C Evan Boehm (Cardinals) 8
5-24 (161st pick) - G Christian Westerman (Bengals) 0
6-10 (185th pick) - CB Harlan Miller (Cardinals) 4
7-24 (245th pick) - ILB Scooby Wright (Browns) 0
7-28 (249th pick) - CB Kalan Reed (Titans) 0

**notorious** · 06-04-2017, 02:55 PM

Wow, Denver might do better if they based their picks on what cardboard cutout a drunken monkey throws it's turds at.

06-03-2017, 05:31 PM
Rain Man NFL's #1 Ermines Fan Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $1828491 VARSITY	A Saturday analysis of AFC West Drafting in the Dorsey era. Using data from our friends at profootballreference, I downloaded the 2013-2016 drafts of the four AFC West teams. (I left 2017 out since the only thing we know about those players at this point is that Mahomes is Favre Reincarnated and Bolles is Forrest Gump.) I then sorted them by where the players were selected in the draft, and compared their "Career Average Value" as calculated by profootballreference. I made one adjustment to the numbers. I took the 2016 players and multiplied their AV by 4, the 2015 players by 2, and the 2014 players by 1.3 so that all players are essentially being measured on a four-year basis. This may understate and/or destabilize the contributions of younger players who have had less time to capture a starting role. I'll cover each round in a post, and I'll split the first round into two parts since there's presumably a bigger talent spread there. In each round I'll list the team, player, pick#, Adjusted CarAV, and position. So let's start with the top half of Round 1. Here are the players who were selected along with their Adjusted Career AV. Code: Team Player Pick Adjusted CarAV Pos KC Eric Fisher 1 27 T SD Joey Bosa 3 24 DE Oak Amari Cooper 4 38 WR Oak Khalil Mack 5 48 LB SD D.J. Fluker 11 29 T Oak D.J. Hayden 12 10 DB Oak Karl Joseph 14 16 S SD Melvin Gordon 15 30 RB Average points per pick: Oakland 28 San Diego, er, Los Angeles 28 Kansas City 27 Denver N/A Oakland has had a lot of picks, and have both the best and worst. Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper are the highest rated guys in this group, even though we all know that Cooper is overrated. However, Oakland also has the least productive guys with their two defensive backs. This group is primarily an Oakland and San Diego...er, Los Angeles show. Eric Fisher is the only exception, and he's ranked 5th of the 8 as part of a big clump in the middle. Go to Post 2 for the back half of the round, and then the first several posts work through each subsequent round. Last edited by Rain Man; 06-03-2017 at 08:24 PM..
Posts: 142,643

06-04-2017, 03:13 AM	#46
Eureka C Chiefs once a year! Join Date: Dec 2012 Location: Cali Casino cash: $976097	The Raiders hit on the draft pick that counts the most and didn't have to give up any additional picks. I wonder how this drafting theory will work out for KC in a few years after giving up picks for Mahomes. Hopefully KC hit on that pick.
Posts: 7,944

06-04-2017, 07:19 AM	#47
Quesadilla Joe Abolish The Salary Cap! Join Date: Mar 2008 Casino cash: $3438675	Elway's first two drafts were legendary and were the reason Denver won Super Bowl 50.
Posts: 19,905

06-04-2017, 10:25 AM	#51
wazu ... Join Date: May 2002 Location: Kansas City, MO Casino cash: $722295 VARSITY	Awesome work, Rainman! Definitely brings some optimism to see this trend.
Posts: 28,853

06-04-2017, 12:58 PM	#55
Sweet Daddy Hate Unsparing Join Date: Aug 2008 Casino cash: $10004900	Did anyone catch the "8 teams on their way to obscurity" piece a few days ago? Very bad news for the Dunks. __________________ 1. Merciless, severe. 2. Given freely and generously. 100% refusal to overrate 20 year Head Coaches with ZERO **ing rings as a Head Coach. CP's Official Professor of 'Dem Blues for 2019/2020!**
Posts: 77,135

06-04-2017, 01:06 PM	#56
RunKC Andy Reid Supporter Join Date: Apr 2012 Casino cash: $779611	This chart shows that the Chiefs and Raiders have the best management in the division and will be successful in the long term.
Posts: 47,669

06-04-2017, 01:42 PM	#57
Squalor2 Banned Join Date: Aug 2015 Casino cash: $10001425	nice stuff rainman. have you done this with other conferences? and could you extrapolate this to w/l records each year? id buy you a frosty.
Posts: 2,502

06-04-2017, 02:45 PM	#59
Rain Man NFL's #1 Ermines Fan Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $1828491 VARSITY	Okay, I've been doing the alternate reality draft over in the casino forum since 2009. I took my own picks over the 2013-2016 time period to see how I'd compare against the guys who get paid for it. Recall that here are the controlled scores for the AFC West teams. Chiefs - 94 Raiders - 86 Chargers - 67 Broncos - 58 So if you look at my seven-round scores, here they are by round. Round Score 1 38.0 2 15.4 3 14.9 4 8.0 5 3.0 6 5.0 7 1.2 Total 85.6 So essentially, a studious guy with a draft magazine ranks 2nd in the division. (I'm going to list myself above the Raiders in the order even though it's a tie.) Chiefs - 94 Rain Man - 86 Raiders - 86 Chargers - 67 Broncos - 58 Haha. Elway is an idiot. He can't even come close to the score of a guy who invests $9 a year in scouting. Here are my picks if you're curious, followed by adjusted CareerAV. I drafted these guys right after the NFL draft every year and before training camp. 2013 Draft Adjusted AV Round 1 - 13th Pick - Star Lotulelei, DT (Panthers) 28 Round 2 - 34th Pick - Geno Smith, QB (Jets) 15 Round 2 - 39th Pick - Menelik Watson, OT (Raiders) 9 Round 3 - 63rd Pick - Travis Kelce, TE (Chiefs) 28 Round 3 - 72nd Pick - Brandon Williams, DT (Ravens) 24 Round 3 - 96th Pick - Tyler Wilson, QB (Raiders) 0 Round 4 - 99th Pick - Denard Robinson, RB/KR (Jaguars) 8 Round 5 - 134th Pick - Jesse Williams, DT (Seahawks) 0 Round 5 - 141st Pick - A.J. Klein, ILB (Panthers) 13 Round 6 - 170th Pick - Bacarri Rambo, FS (Redskins) 8 Round 6 - 204th Pick - Jordan Poyer, CB (Eagles) 6 2014 Draft Round 2 - 44th Pick - Cyrus Kouandjio, OT (Bills) 8 Round 2 - 56th Pick - Morgan Moses, OT (Redskins) 27 Round 3 - 87th Pick - Donte Moncrief, WR (Colts) 17 Round 4 - 124th Pick - David Yankey, G (Vikings).* 0 Round 5 - 153rd Pick - Ed Reynolds, FS (Eagles) 4 Round 5 - 163rd Pick - Ronald Powell, OLB (Saints).* 1 Round 6 - 200th Pick - Daniel McCullers, NT (Steelers).* 4 Round 7 - 221st Pick - Trevor Reilly, OLB (Jets).* 3 Round 7 - 238th Pick - Trey Millard, FB (49ers). 0 2015 Draft Round 1 - 18th Pick - CB Marcus Peters (Chiefs) 48 Round 2 - 49th Pick - OLB Nate Orchard (Browns) 10 Round 3 - 80th Pick. CB Steve Nelson (Chiefs) 12 Round 4 - 98th Pick - OT TJ Clemmings (Vikings) 28 (Traded Round 5 - 146th pick) - QB Brett Hundley (Packers) 0 Round 5 - 154th Pick - I am accepting the trade for G Ben Grubbs. 0 Round 5 - 172nd Pick - FS Derron Smith (Bengals) 4 Round 5 - 173rd Pick - DT Michael Bennett (Jaguars) 2 Round 6 - 193rd Pick - C Andy Gallik (Titans) 6 Round 6 - 217th Pick - TE Ben Koyack (Jaguars) 2 Round 7 - 228th Pick, acquired in trade down - FS Gerod Holliman (Steelers)* 0 Round 7 - 232nd Pick, acquired in trade down - OT Corey Robinson (Lions) 6 Round 7 - 233rd Pick - CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (Browns) 0 2016 2-25 (56th pick) - G CodyWhitehair(Bears) 24 3-11 (74th pick) - CB Kendall Fuller (Redskins) 8 4-8 (106th pick) - SS Miles Killebrew (Lions) 4 4-15 (113th pick) - NT Andrew Billings (Bengals) 0 4-28 (126th pick) - C Evan Boehm (Cardinals) 8 5-24 (161st pick) - G Christian Westerman (Bengals) 0 6-10 (185th pick) - CB Harlan Miller (Cardinals) 4 7-24 (245th pick) - ILB Scooby Wright (Browns) 0 7-28 (249th pick) - CB Kalan Reed (Titans) 0 __________________ Active fan of the greatest team in NFL history.
Posts: 142,643

06-04-2017, 02:55 PM	#60
notorious Supporter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Who knows? Casino cash: $1435884	Wow, Denver might do better if they based their picks on what cardboard cutout a drunken monkey throws it's turds at.
Posts: 85,059