Other Sports Has Billy Beane lost his touch? - Page 4

Lex Luthor · 07-13-2015, 08:25 AM

One year ago the Oakland A's had the best record in baseball at 59-36. Then on July 31st the A's traded Yoenis Cespedes for John Lester. The A's record before the trade 66-41. The A's record after the trade was 22-33.

In the offseason Billy Beane traded Josh Donaldson to the Toronto Blue Jays for third baseman Brett Lawrie, right-hander Kendall Graveman, left-hander Sean Nolin and minor league shortstop Franklin Barreto. Donaldson and Cespedes were the two best players on the A's roster. Now they're both gone and the team went from first to worst. Josh Donaldson is having an MVP season. Cespedes barely missed making the All Star team and is having a solid season. The A's have the worst record in the American League at 41-50.

It looks to me like Billy Beane has destroyed this team. Has Billy Beane totally ****ed up, or do Lawrie, Graveman, Nolin and Barreto have so much potential that the Donaldson trade could eventually work out in favor of the A's?

**Saul Good** · 07-13-2015, 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

I truly don't understand why you and Hamas are trying to explain to me that SS are generally the best defensive player on the field. Well no ****ing duh.

Think of it in terms of batting. 19 HRs a year may be below average for a DH, but it still makes you an above average power hitter.

Hootie · 07-13-2015, 09:42 PM

I don't think that's how they calculate DWAR. If it is, it's ****ing reeruned.

Do they really treat all fielders equally? That cannot be true. You're telling me they aren't grading SS against replacement level SS, rather they just set a replacement level defensive number and all positions are based off of that?

No way.

Hootie · 07-13-2015, 09:44 PM

I have always assumed DWAR was Esky vs. replacement level SS, Sal vs. replacement level catcher, Hos vs. replacement level 1B etc

Hootie · 07-13-2015, 09:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Good

No, but the 0.7 overall compares him to all players and finds him to be slightly above average as a fielder overall and a terrible SS. These things aren't mutually exclusive.

So when Esky was 0.6 (per Hamas) over an entire year he was an average fielder but an AWFUL SS? No way.

That cannot be how they calculate DWAR

If it is, I will create a new model for real, and call it "THERE IS NO ****ING WAY MARCUS SEMIEN IS BETTER THAN A REPLACEMENT LEVEL SS AT PLAYING SS BECAUSE HE THROWS LIKE KNOBLAUCH AND FIELDS LIKE RYAN BRAUN."

**Saul Good** · 07-13-2015, 10:15 PM

I'm not sure, but that's how I read it. That's why your 1B is usually going to be negative.

Prison Bitch · 07-13-2015, 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

I am very interested in how Marcus Semien, a dude with 28 ****ing errors, is a 0.7 WAR player at SS

I realize errors really aren't the holy grail ... but 28 errors and a positive WAR player? What? His fielding percentage is god awful.

Defense is only 1/3 of a players value so its weighted much lower than offense. Also there are about 10-20% max of plays that separate defenders in a given year. So it's hard to separate from peers.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 07-13-2015, 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

So when Esky was 0.6 (per Hamas) over an entire year he was an average fielder but an AWFUL SS? No way.

That cannot be how they calculate DWAR

If it is, I will create a new model for real, and call it "THERE IS NO ****ING WAY MARCUS SEMIEN IS BETTER THAN A REPLACEMENT LEVEL SS AT PLAYING SS BECAUSE HE THROWS LIKE KNOBLAUCH AND FIELDS LIKE RYAN BRAUN."

That is how they calculate DWAR.

Every shortstop is given a calculation of +7.5 runs per 1458 innings.
Every catcher is given a calculation of 12.5 runs per 1458 innings.

An average shortstop is worth 20.0 more runs than an average 1B over the course of a year.

Semien is rated as the second worst SS in baseball defensively, per Fangraphs.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 07-13-2015, 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Defense is only 1/3 of a players value so its weighted much lower than offense. Also there are about 10-20% max of plays that separate defenders in a given year. So it's hard to separate from peers.

Defense does not scale to offense in a linear relationship. It is position and player dependent.

Lorenzo Cain, for example, derives over 2/3 of his value from defense. For his career, he's provided 54 RAR compared to only 25 on offense (which includes baserunning).

TomBarndtsTwin · 07-14-2015, 05:37 AM

Has Billy Beane lost his 'touch'?

Did he ever have one??

I mean, with all the pennants and World Series trophies the A's have won under his watch, the guy must be a genius, right?

Prison Bitch · 07-14-2015, 07:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Defense does not scale to offense in a linear relationship. It is position and player dependent.

Lorenzo Cain, for example, derives over 2/3 of his value from defense. For his career, he's provided 54 RAR compared to only 25 on offense (which includes baserunning).

Yes, there is a positional adjustment. In total, defense is 1/3 of positional player values. DH are given a "penalty" to begin as are 1B. Nonetheless it's not as important as offense and even SS who are terrible defensively can overcome it with a good bat.

**Saul Good** · 07-14-2015, 10:18 AM

The discussion here centers on his defensive value alone.

**Saul Good** · 07-14-2015, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

That is how they calculate DWAR.

Every shortstop is given a calculation of +7.5 runs per 1458 innings.
Every catcher is given a calculation of 12.5 runs per 1458 innings.

An average shortstop is worth 20.0 more runs than an average 1B over the course of a year.

Semien is rated as the second worst SS in baseball defensively, per Fangraphs.

To me, this smacks of someone essentially deciding what they want the outcome to be and building a formulathat will come to the predetermined conclusion. I can't put much stock in something done this way.

It's useful when comparing players within a single position. It's worthless when comparing them across positions. It's really not even meant to say how good a player is...just how much value they provided in their role. Some roles simply matter less, so the opportunities to provide value aren't equal.

Hootie · 07-14-2015, 10:28 AM

I guess I just don't understand the ESPN DWAR, at all. Fangraphs, which I generally hate, has properly rated Semien as a terrible ****ing god awful defender.

**Saul Good** · 07-14-2015, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

I guess I just don't understand the ESPN DWAR, at all. Fangraphs, which I generally hate, has properly rated Semien as a terrible ****ing god awful defender.

You've got 9 Hosmer clones, and I've got 9 Semein clones. Who had the better defensive team?

Hootie · 07-14-2015, 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Good

You've got 9 Hosmer clones, and I've got 9 Semein clones. Who had the better defensive team?

dude. I get that. I do. I really, really, really do.

I just can't believe DWAR is going to try and calculate one of the worst defensive players at his position and then try and paint him as a positive player because he plays a tough position

that's just ****ing stupid

07-13-2015, 08:25 AM
Lex Luthor MVP Join Date: Mar 2010 Casino cash: $10022775	Has Billy Beane lost his touch? One year ago the Oakland A's had the best record in baseball at 59-36. Then on July 31st the A's traded Yoenis Cespedes for John Lester. The A's record before the trade 66-41. The A's record after the trade was 22-33. In the offseason Billy Beane traded Josh Donaldson to the Toronto Blue Jays for third baseman Brett Lawrie, right-hander Kendall Graveman, left-hander Sean Nolin and minor league shortstop Franklin Barreto. Donaldson and Cespedes were the two best players on the A's roster. Now they're both gone and the team went from first to worst. Josh Donaldson is having an MVP season. Cespedes barely missed making the All Star team and is having a solid season. The A's have the worst record in the American League at 41-50. It looks to me like Billy Beane has destroyed this team. Has Billy Beane totally ****ed up, or do Lawrie, Graveman, Nolin and Barreto have so much potential that the Donaldson trade could eventually work out in favor of the A's?
Posts: 16,709

07-13-2015, 09:42 PM	#47
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	I don't think that's how they calculate DWAR. If it is, it's ****ing reeruned. Do they really treat all fielders equally? That cannot be true. You're telling me they aren't grading SS against replacement level SS, rather they just set a replacement level defensive number and all positions are based off of that? No way.
Posts: 56,356

07-13-2015, 09:44 PM	#48
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	I have always assumed DWAR was Esky vs. replacement level SS, Sal vs. replacement level catcher, Hos vs. replacement level 1B etc
Posts: 56,356

07-13-2015, 10:15 PM	#50
Saul Good Quit your bullshit Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Bored of winning Casino cash: $10052799	I'm not sure, but that's how I read it. That's why your 1B is usually going to be negative. __________________ Today is not a good day to be a pussy.
Posts: 41,870

07-14-2015, 05:37 AM	#54
TomBarndtsTwin MVP Join Date: Mar 2013 Casino cash: $4229883	Has Billy Beane lost his 'touch'? Did he ever have one?? I mean, with all the pennants and World Series trophies the A's have won under his watch, the guy must be a genius, right?
Posts: 9,293

07-14-2015, 10:18 AM	#56
Saul Good Quit your bullshit Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Bored of winning Casino cash: $10052799	The discussion here centers on his defensive value alone. __________________ Today is not a good day to be a pussy.
Posts: 41,870

07-14-2015, 10:28 AM	#58
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	I guess I just don't understand the ESPN DWAR, at all. Fangraphs, which I generally hate, has properly rated Semien as a terrible ****ing god awful defender.
Posts: 56,356