***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

I have no faith in the # of cases in the US because we're still barely testing. If it shoots up fast it's probably just because more states are testing more. Unless you have a baseline of consistent testing for a few days - the trends are all over the place.

The only for sure metric to me in the US is if/when the hospitals start getting overrun. Can't really fudge your way out of that one by not testing (although you can still try as SAUTO's post shows).

Using that is not smart. Hospitals can, are or will get overrun because people are panicking and not being smart. Meaning people will just run to the doctor or ER instead of calling first. That is happening.

Some people think they have symptoms or are just overly cautious and run off to the ER instead of calling ahead. That takes its toll on resources whether you are really sick or not.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by TLO

Where is this at?

Greater KC Metro

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by PHOG

Just an honest question, are these total infections? If so, China and S.Korea are done. What would be the time frame for this?

Yes.

For the US, if they enforced a Hubei-style lockdown? Two months. But at this point, it's all over the country. The question is how many hot spots there are (NY, Seattle) and how bad they get.

The other thing one must consider is the possibility that China and South Korea are not done. The 1918 flu came back around and was much deadlier the second time. We must also consider the extent to which SARS-CoV-2 becomes as endemic in human population as influenza due to antigenic drift (viral mutation causing a new strain each year).

[eDave]

Originally Posted by petegz28

No one said it wasn't, dickhead. I said millions of people get sick every day from different things. Including the flu which we have a vaccine for that you won't shut up about. Yet 145 infants alone this year have already died from it. Not to mention hundreds and what will be thousands of others as well.

No one is saying this is the flu or like the flu. But people try to keep some perspective instead of freaking out like you are.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

Would be nice for him to break it down into age ranges.

Maybe not exactly what you are looking for but...

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/

[BWillie]

Didn't E-Dave say he had it (or likely had it)? How many days in is he and how is he doing?

[Fish]

Boom goes the MVP...

Patrick Mahomes’ foundation donates $100,000 to local organizations, 15,000 meals to food bank

We’re with you KC! ❤️ pic.twitter.com/gFVOmnDEHn

— 15 and the Mahomies (@15andMahomies) March 17, 2020

[eDave]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Didn't E-Dave say he had it (or likely had it)? How many days in is he and how is he doing?

I'm Batman

[O.city]

Originally Posted by wazu

Just finished a conversation with a nurse friend. I asked her if she was concerned. She described that since last November people have been coming in who they were convinced had the flu, but were testing negative. They had no idea what it was. They called it a "flu like virus" and gave them Tamiflu. Said they now have test kits, so that will show numbers climbing. She encouraged distancing and doing what we can to stop the spread. Says in the last 3 days she has tested 25 people and turned away another 100 because they didn't meet the criteria, because there aren't enough tests. (Her best guess is half of those 100 have it.)

I think it’s been going around for a while

[TLO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Maybe not exactly what you are looking for but...

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/

Yeah this was updated February 29th. Any information that old is ancient by this point regarding the outbreak.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

Yeah this was updated February 29th. Any information that old is ancient by this point regarding the outbreak.

Take it up with the CDC, dude

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by O.city

I think it’s been going around for a while

I'm on the fence about proclaiming that. I was hopeful that was the case once we started hearing of cases, because that would mean it isn't as jarring as we thought it might be.

However, now that I've seen what is happening in other countries and it starting to overload their healthcare system it couldn't have been here very long at least in community spread. If it had, our ICU's would have been overloaded already.

If it really did come from the live markets in Wuhan in November. And it wasn't heavily prevalent in Wuhan until December. I don't see how all of these rumors of community spread in December and January in the United States would be true.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Didn't E-Dave say he had it (or likely had it)? How many days in is he and how is he doing?

He's doing much better. It was not confirmed he had it, but he suspected that he did.

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by wazu

Just finished a conversation with a nurse friend. I asked her if she was concerned. She described that since last November people have been coming in who they were convinced had the flu, but were testing negative. They had no idea what it was. They called it a "flu like virus" and gave them Tamiflu. Said they now have test kits, so that will show numbers climbing. She encouraged distancing and doing what we can to stop the spread. Says in the last 3 days she has tested 25 people and turned away another 100 because they didn't meet the criteria, because there aren't enough tests. (Her best guess is half of those 100 have it.)

We were talking about this at work today as well. A couple of months ago I had a bug that the doctors thought was RSV but the test was negative. The test for the flu was also negative. It took being put on what turned out to be 2 rounds of Prednisone including a shot to start the rounds. Two rounds of Amoxicillin. Albuterol Sulfate in a Nebulisor. I have COPD so I am already on Advair 250/50, Spiriva Respimat and a rescue inhaler.
I thought that I was going to be in the hospital. I am better and over it but my breathing never did come back to what it was before that "illness".

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Take it up with the CDC, dude

Those numbers were based on what happened in China. From the looks of things happening in Italy and the rest of the world, it appears it is higher. Likely for all age groups at least to some degree.