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Old 11-02-2015, 05:00 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***



Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:
Spoiler!

Spoiler!

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-17-2015 at 09:49 AM..
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Old 11-18-2015, 10:55 AM   #571
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Originally Posted by mr. tegu View Post
They were referencing a recent Tom Verducci article from SI.
The numbers were pretty amazing. There's almost no point in ever signing a player over 30 to a big (or even medium) sized deal of more than a year or two.
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Old 11-18-2015, 11:07 AM   #572
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Originally Posted by Saul Good View Post
The numbers were pretty amazing. There's almost no point in ever signing a player over 30 to a big (or even medium) sized deal of more than a year or two.
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Old 11-18-2015, 11:27 AM   #573
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Originally Posted by Saul Good View Post
The numbers were pretty amazing. There's almost no point in ever signing a player over 30 to a big (or even medium) sized deal of more than a year or two.
This is interesting. I see two things happening in the future:

1) Older players become a new "moneyball" lens, as teams stop spending on them, to the point of them becoming an undervalued asset.

2) MLB does something with the CBA to change the arbitration rules and get more money to players in their prime years, when still under team control. If teams stop spending on vets, the players will push for either shorter periods of team control, or more lucrative arbitration awards, so that guys who get to arbitration late do not get punished when reaching FA at 30+ and having no one willing to pay them.
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Old 11-18-2015, 12:17 PM   #574
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Originally Posted by Jerm View Post
That is hilariously laughable...
Dombrowski that high? really?
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Old 11-18-2015, 12:23 PM   #575
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Originally Posted by Jerm View Post
That is hilariously laughable...
Maybe if they make a movie about Dayton, with the emphasis on his valuing of defense and bullpen, he'll get more credit. Maybe have Matt Damon play the lead role.

Is he the best GM? Who knows, probably not. But based on the last three years, he should obviously be higher than 9/10/11.
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Old 11-18-2015, 12:29 PM   #576
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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Originally Posted by Jerm View Post
That is hilariously laughable...
List is bad.

Far too rewarding to guys like Cashman (who has done little despite having the most advantages of any team in baseball for most of his tenure) and Dombrowski (who can be a great short-term GM but has a tendency to leave behind cratered programs.
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Old 11-18-2015, 12:36 PM   #577
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Steamer projections as of today (no Gordon, Zo or Cueto):

Cleve 85
KC 77
Twins 77
Sux 77
Tiggers 75

We get almost nothing from 2B-RF-LF. If you played Colon-Zobrist-Gordon, Steamer would add 10 full wins and hence the division.
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Old 11-18-2015, 12:39 PM   #578
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Steamer projections as of today (no Gordon, Zo or Cueto):

Cleve 85
KC 77
Twins 77
Sux 77
Tiggers 75

We get almost nothing from 2B-RF-LF. If you played Colon-Zobrist-Gordon, Steamer would add 10 full wins and hence the division.
Are you a fan of the Cleveland Streamer projection?
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Old 11-18-2015, 12:41 PM   #579
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Steamer projections as of today (no Gordon, Zo or Cueto):

Cleve 85
KC 77
Twins 77
Sux 77
Tiggers 75

We get almost nothing from 2B-RF-LF. If you played Colon-Zobrist-Gordon, Steamer would add 10 full wins and hence the division.
Would that bring down Cleveland's projection as well?
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Old 11-18-2015, 12:43 PM   #580
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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Originally Posted by Saul Good View Post
Would that bring down Cleveland's projection as well?
Not sure, it's continuously updated thru the offseason. But if you're asking whether the league avg is always 81 wins, the answer is of course.
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Old 11-18-2015, 12:54 PM   #581
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Steamer projections as of today (no Gordon, Zo or Cueto):

Cleve 85
KC 77
Twins 77
Sux 77
Tiggers 75

We get almost nothing from 2B-RF-LF. If you played Colon-Zobrist-Gordon, Steamer would add 10 full wins and hence the division.
No real point in placing stock in these until each team has set the roster, but it is once again demonstrative of how much projection systems love certain profiles.

That Cleveland number is rather silly, considering the holes that team still has.
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Old 11-18-2015, 02:04 PM   #582
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
List is bad.

Far too rewarding to guys like Cashman (who has done little despite having the most advantages of any team in baseball for most of his tenure) and Dombrowski (who can be a great short-term GM but has a tendency to leave behind cratered programs.

No shit. Here's their job.....

1. Blank Checks - you fill out the amount you need

2. Repeat Step 1 as often as you deem necessary.
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Old 11-18-2015, 02:10 PM   #583
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Was anyone listening to sports radio in KC this morning? I heard someone on 610 I think say that there were only something like 45 players on major league rosters last year over the age of 30 who could be considered productive players.

Did anyone else hear that? I'm trying to dig into that a bit, but I'm not sure I heard it right.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/11/17/fre...e-johnny-cueto
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Old 11-18-2015, 03:24 PM   #584
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Old 11-18-2015, 03:31 PM   #585
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What is Soria worth these days. The Royals already have their 7th, 8th, and 9th guys in Hoch, Hearra, and Davis.
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