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Old 04-05-2017, 10:55 AM  
Chiefspants Chiefspants is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***

Chiefsplanet’s (Proposed) 2017 Season Title: One Last Ride

Midish-Season Update (Royals 51-47, 2nd Wild Card, 1.5 GB of ALC):

We're halfway through 2017, and fittingly to the Chiefsplanet's 2017 Season Title, the Royals are all-in on what will likely be one final run with the current core. While many are worried the Royals will take a 2004 style tumble after this year, the farm system is hardly the barren wasteland it was during the Baird years. To see what's in the pipeline and what we have to look forward to, check out this exceptional list and analysis that Duncan put together of our system.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0

While I had the honor of starting this thread this year, Duncan will always have a VIP pass to this OP, and can add more content at any time.

2017's Burning Questions Revisited:

1. What is the threshold between being “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline?

We're buyers, baby.

In April, I argued that it would be a wise strategy for us to sell if we were 5 GB or worse, but that Dayton would likely add supplemental pieces for us to load up for another run if we were 1-2 GB. On July 24th, the Royals found themselves in sole possession of the 2nd wild card spot and 1.5 games back of the division. In April I said the Royals might pull the trigger on someone like Alex Cobb and resign Luke Hochevar, but since the Rays are also buyers and Luke's shoulder hasn't rebounded, this prediction hasn't come to fruition. Luckily, Dayton Moore again proved much more adept and creative than me by adding Trevor Cahill (good call, Duncan), Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter in a single trade. Giving us a solid starter to compete in 2017, and two relievers whom we will control through 2019 and 2021, respectively, keeping Moore's new vision through 2019-2020 intact. Moore has hinted that the Royals will continue to pursue the right deals if they're there, so the fun may not be over just yet. While we may not have the bullets to pull in a "star" like Cueto or Zo, Moore's adeptness may yet again net us what we need for another run in October.

2. Can Gordo and Moose bounce back to 2015 levels?

In April I asked if Gordo could at least set the table at a 265/325/425 clip and if Moose could deliver damage around a 265/335/500 clip for an entire year. This season Mr. Moustakas has been the prospect that was promised, delivering at a 277/307/568 clip as of this update. Gordo, on the other hand, has put up an unbelievably abysmal line thus far. But, if there is a silver lining, it's that Gordo has performed at a 246/311/432 line since June 1st, and if he can continue to perform near that mark, he will be more than a valuable asset at the bottom of the lineup while he continues to provide the best LF defense in the league.

3. Can Ned Yost manage a bullpen?

In April, I felt that despite the poor start, Royals bullpen would ultimately be "solid" this year, but the question was whether "solid" was good enough for Ned. I argued that the Royals needed Soria to bounce back and that Ned would need to start being strategic in his L/L and R/R matchups. While Ned has still made at times baffling and frustrating decisions with his starters (such as allowing Travis Wood to try to "get the win" and still insisting on sending Hammel out for the 6th, he's mostly done a good job).

MASH: Minor/Moylan - Alexander - Soria - Herrera (Credit to C3HIEF3S for the origins of the phrase) have cemented into reliable pieces, and now that Herrera is showing signs of stabilizing, our dumping of Wood, our call up Flynn, and the acquisition of Buchter and Maurer, the Royals have the potential to enter October with one of the best and deepest bullpens in the postseason.

4. Will the Royals find a boost from an unexpected X-Factor to lift them to contention?

Cool-Whit, Boni, Mike ****ing Minor, and Alexander have come up huge thus far. Cool Whit is, incredibly, is second on the team in WAR and has more than replaced Zo's presence on the team. They, like the X-Factors on the 2014-2015 teams, have been critical cogs as we've raced back to contention, while Cool-Whit and Boni also have provided a rosier outlook for this team's future. It's worth noting that Salvador Perez and Jason Vargas has been beasts on offense and the mound (along with Sal providing his customary defensive excellence), but I am still a bit wary of Salvy's annual Yost assisted offensive drought as the team moves into August, along with Vargy regressing to his averages.

5. Can Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss be productive contributors in Kauffman’s dimensions?

Ouch, no, but the Royals shift to power-hitting in the juiced ball era looks like one that will pay off. Thankfully, Moss is showing signs of entering his seasonal hot streak where he becomes corn-fed Jesus for a month, and we'll need him hot to keep up with Cleveland down the stretch. While Jorge has been painful to watch in the majors, his scorching performance in AAA should give one a bright hope for the future. While some may disagree, I offer Moose, Hos, Gordo, and Duffy's struggles as exhibit A for why it is far too early to give up on Soler's potential.

Bonus Question - Is Raul Mondesi truly ready to be an everyday player?

Ha! Not even close. However, like Soler, his progress in AAA is incredibly encouraging. With ceilings like Lindor and floors being Esky being thrown out there, it's hard not to be excited about his future.

The Picture Forward

There are many reasons to be excited, and not only for 2017. The Royals emergence of Cool Whit, Bonifacio, and Scott Alexander, and the fact that we have pieces like Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer Cheslor Cuthbert, and Raul Mondesi until at least 2019 should leave one feeling pretty optimistic. Re-up Moose or Hos (and heck, re-sign Dyson while we're at it), and suddenly this team looks very much like one that could compete for the indefinite future.

The Royals are all in again, buckle in and enjoy the ride.

April OP:

Spoiler!

Last edited by Chiefspants; 08-02-2017 at 01:53 PM..
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Old 08-10-2017, 09:25 PM   #5716
Al Bundy Al Bundy is offline
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Royals back in 3rd place behind a team that sold.....
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Old 08-10-2017, 09:25 PM   #5717
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This team came back from being completely dead in April, this is nothing compared to that. I have no idea what to do about the bullpen though. It is going to be a problem. I think they need to make some kind of move to shake things up.

That said, we have about the easiest schedule left of most of the playoff contenders. We still have to play the Indians 10 times, and the White Sox 9. Plenty of opportunity to right the ship. If I'm not mistaken, we actually don't have another road series against a playoff team the rest of the season... except for the Cleveland games.

I'm actually not sure we have another road series against a team with a winning record, except Cleveland.
I can agree we could make a run at it, but that is only based on the team's history, and not really on how they are playing or especially not based the pitching. I don't really see how it gets better, which is really the main issue.
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Old 08-10-2017, 09:25 PM   #5718
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I'm going to Cleveland second weekend in September. That will jump start us into the playoffs. BWillie luck.
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Old 08-10-2017, 09:29 PM   #5719
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I can agree we could make a run at it, but that is only based on the team's history, and not really on how they are playing or especially not based the pitching. I don't really see how it gets better, which is really the main issue.
I don't mean to be flippant, but sometimes baseball doesn't make a lick of sense. This team looked like a 120 loss team in April. They kind of look like that now. Then when they've played well they look like they could beat anyone. They beat the Astros when they were on fire.

It's the complete opposite of football. Especially with this team. You just ride the wave and hope they get back on their feet, and this team will feed off that confidence and run with it. It probably isn't going to make sense.

It's entirely possible the bullpen is out of gas though, for sure.
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Old 08-11-2017, 06:25 AM   #5720
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The middle relief is just killing this team. Really hope they can get out of this horrid stretch and pull out some wins.
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Old 08-11-2017, 08:00 AM   #5721
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Royals back in 3rd place behind a team that sold.....
DM has had a terrible last 2 years. Everything he's done has gone straight to shit.



Oh - and does this finally end the myth he can "build a bullpen"? His bullpen is pure garbage. Worst in MLB, other than maybe the Reds
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Old 08-11-2017, 08:21 AM   #5722
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Marco Estrada has had three straight excellent starts, pitching 7 innings in each one. Word is the Mariners are eyeing him. Should the Royals jump in?
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Old 08-11-2017, 09:22 AM   #5723
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***

Quote:
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DM has had a terrible last 2 years. Everything he's done has gone straight to shit.







Oh - and does this finally end the myth he can "build a bullpen"? His bullpen is pure garbage. Worst in MLB, other than maybe the Reds

He has not had a good two years. Paying for everything in 15 going right, I think.

But that "myth" you speak to hasn't been proven a myth yet. The Royals reliever ERA is 13th. The only metric where the pen has struggled and is in the bottom of the league is in walks.

ERA Ranks the previous five seasons:
5
2
10
2
6

Aggregate rank: 1

No bullpen has a lower ERA over that time period. No bullpen has more fWAR.

Basically, the Royals bullpen has been so good the previous five years, having one that is roughly league average feels like having the worst pen in the league.

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Old 08-11-2017, 10:43 AM   #5724
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Not just fWAR. It's really the leverage index scores that made us so dominant. From 13-16, with the HDH core (but also with valuable giysbloke Hoch, Madison, Fraser, Collins, franklin morales) our WPA was #1.


But our non-leverage index scores ("true talent") are absurd. 21.19 score vs Orioles 13.10 in 2nd. That gap = the drop from Orioles to #16. Run Expectancy the same (250 vs Orioles 162, gap down to #11)



At any rate, the fact he has NOBODY worth a shit now is troubling to say the least. But what's worse: he got zero value from them via trades/releases.
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Old 08-11-2017, 10:48 AM   #5725
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So, the Royals probably don't HAVE TO sweep the Sox and A's.... but.... they kinda have to sweep the Sox and A's, right?

Not in the sense that they'll definitely be out of it if they don't, but more like they won't get many more chances to make up a lot of ground by playing very bad teams.
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Old 08-11-2017, 10:50 AM   #5726
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So, the Royals probably don't HAVE TO sweep the Sox and A's.... but.... they kinda have to sweep the Sox and A's, right?

Not in the sense that they'll definitely be out of it if they don't, but more like they won't get many more chances to make up a lot of ground by playing very bad teams.
First off, WE are the bad team. At least today.


Second, all 3 teams at the top of the WC standings are expected to finish with 81 wins. If we had done ANYTHING other than go 2-9 we'd be the faves
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Old 08-11-2017, 11:11 AM   #5727
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First off, WE are the bad team. At least today.


Second, all 3 teams at the top of the WC standings are expected to finish with 81 wins. If we had done ANYTHING other than go 2-9 we'd be the faves
Funny thing is that we are only a game back from the wild card.
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Old 08-11-2017, 11:15 AM   #5728
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So, the Royals probably don't HAVE TO sweep the Sox and A's.... but.... they kinda have to sweep the Sox and A's, right?

Not in the sense that they'll definitely be out of it if they don't, but more like they won't get many more chances to make up a lot of ground by playing very bad teams.
.600 gets them to 85 wins.
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Old 08-11-2017, 05:14 PM   #5729
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No GDT?
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Old 08-11-2017, 05:17 PM   #5730
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No GDT?
Honestly most people gonna be following the Chiefs game. Royals need to do something worth giving a shit about over the next few days to get people re-invested.
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