*** Official 2016 Royals Repository, Version 1 ***

[duncan_idaho]

And so it begins: The Royals' second straight attempt to repeat as AL Champions, and first attempt to repeat as World Series champions.

In this thread, we'll track all non-gameday action. Roster moves, prospect news, etc.

I'll start the thread as usual, with division rivals thoughts. I still like KC to repeat as AL Central champs. Here's how I see the rest of it shaking out:

2) Indians - they have the pitching (and seem to have at least semi-Kluber-ed Cody Anderson, who added 3 mph to his fastball in the offseason). Will the offense hold up? I think this is a team that ends up looking a lot like the 2014 Royals. Francisco Lindor will solidify their IF defense over the full season, and is a help with the bat. I think this club is still a year away from really breaking through - the offense still has a lot of question marks - but I like them to nab a wildcard spot.

Key Player(s): Michael Brantley. When Brantley returns - and how he hits when he does - will be critical to the Indians' ability to be good enough on offense.

Jason Kipnis. Kipnis has been an enigmatic offensive performer for the past several years. If he finally has a good offensive campaign from start to finish, Cleveland could make real noise.

Something of interest to me: For all the acclaim the Twins' farm system gets, I look at the Indians young players, and would much rather have them. Brad Zimmer is going to be a very good all-around CF. Clint Frazier has huge power potential and should arrive soon (2017). Lindor is a young stud.

3) Tigers - Old and dependent on a few stars. If Verlander and Sanchez are healthy and effective, they will be playoff contenders. I'm sure JD Martinez will continue to hit roid-aided bombs. I'm also pretty sure Victor Martinez's days as a huge power threat are gone.

Key player: Justin Verlander. Detroit people would have you believe he figured out how to succeed without his big fastball in September of last year. If that's true, and he returns to dominant form, Detroit will likely contend again.

Something of interest to me: Will Jose Iglesias stay healthy and not try to kill teammates in the dugout? His defense makes the whole group much better.

4) Twins - They won't lead the division or be in playoff contention for as long this year, but Minnesota will avoid the cellar.

Key Player: Miguel Sano. Huge power, huge K rate. Can he continue to drive the ball and be a plus offensive player? Probably needs to cut that 35 percent K percentage to do so.

Something of interest to me: Will teams challenge Sano inside with hard stuff? Working away, away, just lets his power play up. Also - will Mike Berardino continue to be the biggest beat writer homer in MLB?

5) White Sox - still managed by a shitty manager who can't control his clubhouse (The blame for the LaRoche thing really should fall on him, not the GM). Still have a shitty overall defense and a lot of douchebags on the team. They will once again look better on paper than they actually perform.

Key player: Carlos Rodon. The White Sox need Rodon to take a big step forward to make an actual move this season. He's got the talent...

And, as always, here are the prospects.

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

[mikeyis4dcats.]

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

So, I realize it's been discussed ad nauseam on here, but Royals are 68-62.

Going 22-10 rest of way gets you to 90 wins and pretty much guarantees a playoff spot (likely Wild Card, as Cleveland would have to go 16-17 to finish with 89 wins and lose out on the division).

Going 21-11 gets you 89 wins and a solid chance at Wild Card.

20-12 gets you to 88 and on the fringe.

The Royals are probably the hottest team in baseball right now, but I still have serious doubts about them making the playoffs this year. I think July, unfortunately, did them in. The Royals have won 17 of the last 21 and obviously cannot continue to play at that kind of clip through September. So assuming there is a lull somewhere in September (last road trip versus Clev. and Detroit?), is it realistic to think they can get to 88-90 wins with a 'lull'.


Just curious what the brain trust of Royals CP thinks on this . . . .

and water is wet

[suzzer99]

The Royals were bad and now hot and pulling into contention? I wasn't aware...

[TomBarndtsTwin]

Should have known those comments were coming . . . . .


In spite of their recent torrid stretch, I still just don't see anyway they make it to the post-season. Was just trying to get the general consensus of what most Royals fans in here think: Hope and a prayer kind of thing? or do people really think they have a solid chance?

[jimidollar]

Definitely a solid chance. I'm a true believer in the power of the mantis.

[KChiefs1]

24% chance


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[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

Should have known those comments were coming . . . . .


In spite of their recent torrid stretch, I still just don't see anyway they make it to the post-season. Was just trying to get the general consensus of what most Royals fans in here think: Hope and a prayer kind of thing? or do people really think they have a solid chance?

Heard something on 610 last week. If you were promised $10,000 if you were right, would you say the Royals would make the playoffs?

In that situation, I would say no and likely pocket some money. But after the last two years, I know better than doubting anything this team will do. In my heart, I believe they will make it. They have overcome worse odds just last year.

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

Royals at 24% now.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ex_cid=rrpromo

Originally Posted by BWillie

Unless your fangraphs, then you think they only have a 6% chance...and Detroit who is only one game ahead of us has a 41% chance. Fangraphs.

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

Why I don't use fangraphs playoff projections. 538 I think is more realistic.

Other than for entertainment purposes, all of the %age projections are largely worthless. What does a 6% or 24% chance really mean anyway, other than "not a very good chance"?
It just means they input a bunch of data, ran a computer simulation a billion times, and 6% (or 24%) of the time, they made it. It's silly and virtually meaningless. It gives you a general idea that most people could tell just by eyeballing the standings.

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

So, I realize it's been discussed ad nauseam on here, but Royals are 68-62.

Going 22-10 rest of way gets you to 90 wins and pretty much guarantees a playoff spot (likely Wild Card, as Cleveland would have to go 16-17 to finish with 89 wins and lose out on the division).

Going 21-11 gets you 89 wins and a solid chance at Wild Card.

20-12 gets you to 88 and on the fringe.

The Royals are probably the hottest team in baseball right now, but I still have serious doubts about them making the playoffs this year. I think July, unfortunately, did them in. The Royals have won 17 of the last 21 and obviously cannot continue to play at that kind of clip through September. So assuming there is a lull somewhere in September (last road trip versus Clev. and Detroit?), is it realistic to think they can get to 88-90 wins with a 'lull'.


Just curious what the brain trust of Royals CP thinks on this . . . .

For 88 wins to lock down the #2 WC for us, Balitmore would have to go .500 at best. We would also need to need Detroit to do 2 games worse than us (go 18-14 at best), and Houston, Seattle and New York to do 1 game worse than us (19-15 at best).

There's a couple of other scenarios (like Boston tanking), but that's the most straightforward at this point. It's possible, but will take some help.

[KChiefs1]

https://youtu.be/quPdGrOGAn0







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[BigCatDaddy]

Id say better chance than we had of going to and then winning a World Series before the 14 and 15 seasons.

[KChiefs1]

http://www.chatsports.com/kansas-cit...ant-race-30738

The Kansas City Royals are the hottest team in baseball, going 17-4 over their last 21 games, putting them right back in the thick of the AL Wild Card race. Once left for that, the Royals are now playing like the defending World Series champs - and that means bad things fro the rest of the American League. Here are three reasons why the Royals are the biggest threat in the AL pennant race:

3) Experience
This team is far from the group of young players that made the surprising run to the World Series in 2014. Two years later, this is a group that has routinely pulled out clutch wins and accomplished absurd comebacks. They've not only learned what it takes to win, but they've learned what it takes to be great - especially during this time of year. As a result, they've brought their playoff chances back from the dead.


The Royals expect nothing less than another World Series crown, and most importantly, they know what it takes to get there. They've elevated their play at the right time, and #RallyMantis has given them all the belief they need.

2) Improved pitching
Pitching struggles were Kansas City's Achilles heel during their first half struggles, but they have since rebounded to be pretty respectable in that category. The Royals rank in the top 10 in the majors in both ERA and batting average against, improvements that have spearheaded this run. They still need Edinson Volquez and Ian Kennedy to be a bit more consistent, but things are moving in the right direction for the Royals.

1) Remaining schedule
Furthering matters for Kansas City is that there is plenty of opportunity in the next month for them to continue their run. 17 of their remaining 32 games are against teams with losing records. Six of the other 15 games against the Tigers, who the Royals are 9-4 against this season. That's 23 games where they have a distinct advantage, and while they won't win all of those games, they should win most of them - plus a good portion of the other nine. As a result, the Royals' run doesn't appear to have an end in sight.

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[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

Should have known those comments were coming . . . . .





In spite of their recent torrid stretch, I still just don't see anyway they make it to the post-season. Was just trying to get the general consensus of what most Royals fans in here think: Hope and a prayer kind of thing? or do people really think they have a solid chance?

Don't see any way?

Before the last two weeks/three weeks, I could buy that. But then they reeled off an incredibly hot stretch that allowed them to reel in the field.

The AL East is going to eat itself a bit, and that helps KC, considering that 3/4 AL East teams are competing with KC for two spots.

Other than that, you're worried about the Astros and the Mariners, neither of whom has a major advantage over KC right now, if any at all.

The Orioles were collapsing before Tillman got hurt. They're not going to make the playoffs at this point.

The Red Sox are going to win the division. The Blue Jays will likely get the first WC.

Throw in how soft KC's schedule the rest of the way, by comparison, and there certainly is a way.


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[Nightfyre]

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

So, I realize it's been discussed ad nauseam on here, but Royals are 68-62.

Going 22-10 rest of way gets you to 90 wins and pretty much guarantees a playoff spot (likely Wild Card, as Cleveland would have to go 16-17 to finish with 89 wins and lose out on the division).

Going 21-11 gets you 89 wins and a solid chance at Wild Card.

20-12 gets you to 88 and on the fringe.

The Royals are probably the hottest team in baseball right now, but I still have serious doubts about them making the playoffs this year. I think July, unfortunately, did them in. The Royals have won 17 of the last 21 and obviously cannot continue to play at that kind of clip through September. So assuming there is a lull somewhere in September (last road trip versus Clev. and Detroit?), is it realistic to think they can get to 88-90 wins with a 'lull'.


Just curious what the brain trust of Royals CP thinks on this . . . .

We are only 3 games back in the wild card, have made up more games than that in the last ten, and you don't see anyway the Royals snag a post-season berth? The other teams are practically coming unglued and we have a very favorable schedule going into September. I would call it closer to a coin flip than the 6% or 25% other sites are projecting.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

Should have known those comments were coming . . . . .


In spite of their recent torrid stretch, I still just don't see anyway they make it to the post-season. Was just trying to get the general consensus of what most Royals fans in here think: Hope and a prayer kind of thing? or do people really think they have a solid chance?

have you paid any attention to this team the last couple years?

i almost believe if they were two down with one to go they would somehow make it...

[WhawhaWhat]

Omaha got rained out so no rehab start for Wade Davis.