*** Official 2016 Royals Repository, Version 1 ***

[duncan_idaho]

And so it begins: The Royals' second straight attempt to repeat as AL Champions, and first attempt to repeat as World Series champions.

In this thread, we'll track all non-gameday action. Roster moves, prospect news, etc.

I'll start the thread as usual, with division rivals thoughts. I still like KC to repeat as AL Central champs. Here's how I see the rest of it shaking out:

2) Indians - they have the pitching (and seem to have at least semi-Kluber-ed Cody Anderson, who added 3 mph to his fastball in the offseason). Will the offense hold up? I think this is a team that ends up looking a lot like the 2014 Royals. Francisco Lindor will solidify their IF defense over the full season, and is a help with the bat. I think this club is still a year away from really breaking through - the offense still has a lot of question marks - but I like them to nab a wildcard spot.

Key Player(s): Michael Brantley. When Brantley returns - and how he hits when he does - will be critical to the Indians' ability to be good enough on offense.

Jason Kipnis. Kipnis has been an enigmatic offensive performer for the past several years. If he finally has a good offensive campaign from start to finish, Cleveland could make real noise.

Something of interest to me: For all the acclaim the Twins' farm system gets, I look at the Indians young players, and would much rather have them. Brad Zimmer is going to be a very good all-around CF. Clint Frazier has huge power potential and should arrive soon (2017). Lindor is a young stud.

3) Tigers - Old and dependent on a few stars. If Verlander and Sanchez are healthy and effective, they will be playoff contenders. I'm sure JD Martinez will continue to hit roid-aided bombs. I'm also pretty sure Victor Martinez's days as a huge power threat are gone.

Key player: Justin Verlander. Detroit people would have you believe he figured out how to succeed without his big fastball in September of last year. If that's true, and he returns to dominant form, Detroit will likely contend again.

Something of interest to me: Will Jose Iglesias stay healthy and not try to kill teammates in the dugout? His defense makes the whole group much better.

4) Twins - They won't lead the division or be in playoff contention for as long this year, but Minnesota will avoid the cellar.

Key Player: Miguel Sano. Huge power, huge K rate. Can he continue to drive the ball and be a plus offensive player? Probably needs to cut that 35 percent K percentage to do so.

Something of interest to me: Will teams challenge Sano inside with hard stuff? Working away, away, just lets his power play up. Also - will Mike Berardino continue to be the biggest beat writer homer in MLB?

5) White Sox - still managed by a shitty manager who can't control his clubhouse (The blame for the LaRoche thing really should fall on him, not the GM). Still have a shitty overall defense and a lot of douchebags on the team. They will once again look better on paper than they actually perform.

Key player: Carlos Rodon. The White Sox need Rodon to take a big step forward to make an actual move this season. He's got the talent...

And, as always, here are the prospects.

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by tk13

I think we just need to keep winning and see where we are to start September. Certainly less competition in the division, but that's such a big hill to climb and the Indians are a very good team. Since everyone's playing division games all next month, these AL East teams fighting for the WC could beat up on each other. That still doesn't take care of the Mariners though.

Just keep winning series. Things will play out.

[Simply Red]

the bats will have to come to work tonight - it's happened before - I've seen 'em do it!

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Well, that's not it, WAR explains 80-90% of a teams record (chart from HardballTimes using bWAR)









We are again outplaying WAR and base runs. I'm guessing tossing 32 straight scoreless bullpen IP at your opponents will cause a lot of that

I like WAR a lot. It just doesn't explain 100 percent of what happens for a team. I'll buy 80-90 percent as a baseline.

Even at that missing 10 percent, though, that leaves a lot of room for variance. Would an 8-win swing in either direction for a team whose WAR says it should win 85 games be shocking to you? That would make the WAR prediction 90 percent accurate.

80 percent, and all of a sudden you're talking about a 17-win swing.

I think it's a good measure but you can't rely on it without context. Same with base runs or run differential.

For example, you can have a bad team that has a lot of power and bashes the crap out of back-end starters that looks better in run differential than its record because it is blowing teams out once every few weeks.

Or you could have a good team that doesn't have an explosive offense that looks worse in run differential because they just don't blow teams out very often.

Pitching, a dominant bullpen, speed, as defense are things that can lead to a team being really great in tight games and winning them at a high percentage but not having impressive run differentials.




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[BWillie]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I like WAR a lot. It just doesn't explain 100 percent of what happens for a team. I'll buy 80-90 percent as a baseline.

Even at that missing 10 percent, though, that leaves a lot of room for variance. Would an 8-win swing in either direction for a team whose WAR says it should win 85 games be shocking to you? That would make the WAR prediction 90 percent accurate.

80 percent, and all of a sudden you're talking about a 17-win swing.

I think it's a good measure but you can't rely on it without context. Same with base runs or run differential.

For example, you can have a bad team that has a lot of power and bashes the crap out of back-end starters that looks better in run differential than its record because it is blowing teams out once every few weeks.

Or you could have a good team that doesn't have an explosive offense that looks worse in run differential because they just don't blow teams out very often.

Pitching, a dominant bullpen, speed, as defense are things that can lead to a team being really great in tight games and winning them at a high percentage but not having impressive run differentials.




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Fangraphs and alot of other stat sites disagree. It's like they've latched onto their initial ideas of analytics and refuse to change. Kind of like Billy Beane. OBP is no longer undervalued as it was. Now, bullpen, defense and speed appear to be undervalued to me. Then MLB had to go and juice the ball because that pissed them off.

[C3HIEF3S]

Worth posting:

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs suggests Hosmer at 4/$60M. Which maybe 2 months ago you might have scoffed at pic.twitter.com/Tb8pQZ9YTs

— Shaun Newkirk (@Shauncore) August 24, 2016

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

Worth posting:

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs suggests Hosmer at 4/$60M. Which maybe 2 months ago you might have scoffed at pic.twitter.com/Tb8pQZ9YTs

— Shaun Newkirk (@Shauncore) August 24, 2016

I still think his nadir value is the Belt deal, but I thought his real worth was something like Nick Swisher's contract after the 2014 season.

[Lex Luthor]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Well, that's not it, WAR explains 80-90% of a teams record (chart from HardballTimes using bWAR)

We are again outplaying WAR and base runs. I'm guessing tossing 32 straight scoreless bullpen IP at your opponents will cause a lot of that

If WAR explains 80% of a team's record, doesn't that mean it doesn't explain 20%? 20% of a season is 32 games.

Seems like a pretty big hole in the WAR stat.

[Lex Luthor]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

4 man if Gee shits the bed today?
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=22423

Keep pitch counts down and lean on the pen?

I think I'd prefer not to risk injuring the arms of Duffy, Ventura and Kennedy in order to gain an advantage that may not actually be an advantage at all if they are less effective in a 4-man rotation.

[Lex Luthor]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

Dayton is a genius for re-acquiring Jack Shit at the trade deadline!

How anyone can mock Dayton Moore right now is beyond me.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I like WAR a lot. It just doesn't explain 100 percent of what happens for a team. I'll buy 80-90 percent as a baseline.

Even at that missing 10 percent, though, that leaves a lot of room for variance. Would an 8-win swing in either direction for a team whose WAR says it should win 85 games be shocking to you? That would make the WAR prediction 90 percent accurate.

80 percent, and all of a sudden you're talking about a 17-win swing.

I think it's a good measure but you can't rely on it without context. Same with base runs or run differential.

For example, you can have a bad team that has a lot of power and bashes the crap out of back-end starters that looks better in run differential than its record because it is blowing teams out once every few weeks.

Or you could have a good team that doesn't have an explosive offense that looks worse in run differential because they just don't blow teams out very often.

Pitching, a dominant bullpen, speed, as defense are things that can lead to a team being really great in tight games and winning them at a high percentage but not having impressive run differentials.




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Rep

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

Worth posting:

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs suggests Hosmer at 4/$60M. Which maybe 2 months ago you might have scoffed at pic.twitter.com/Tb8pQZ9YTs

— Shaun Newkirk (@Shauncore) August 24, 2016

He might have played himself out of $100 million as time has progressed and his warts have come to light.

Still think that is a bit too low a number though.

[ChiefsCountry]

Dave Cameron is a moron. Prison Bitch sucks his dick which should tell you a lot.

[tk13]

Despite his huge slump Hos still might end up with 30 doubles, 20+ homers, 90+ RBI. Definitely not a bad season, especially compared to his down year in 2014. Plus he's a leader who has been a star in the playoffs. Definitely not worth $200M right now, but there's still a year to go too. A great year next year and he'll be in high demand.

Either way, arguing that he'll get a smaller contact than Gordon did is crazy.

[duncan_idaho]

Would guess Hosmer is still in six figures with the next deal, likely over 5 years.

Dave Cameron also believes his site's defensive metrics fairly judge Hosmer ... Metrics that say he is worse than hacks like Chris Carter and Ryan Howard.




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[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Lex Luthor

I think I'd prefer not to risk injuring the arms of Duffy, Ventura and Kennedy in order to gain an advantage that may not actually be an advantage at all if they are less effective in a 4-man rotation.

Read the link. It wasn't days off that effected performance.. it was pitch counts.