*** Official 2016 Royals Repository, Version 1 ***

[duncan_idaho]

And so it begins: The Royals' second straight attempt to repeat as AL Champions, and first attempt to repeat as World Series champions.

In this thread, we'll track all non-gameday action. Roster moves, prospect news, etc.

I'll start the thread as usual, with division rivals thoughts. I still like KC to repeat as AL Central champs. Here's how I see the rest of it shaking out:

2) Indians - they have the pitching (and seem to have at least semi-Kluber-ed Cody Anderson, who added 3 mph to his fastball in the offseason). Will the offense hold up? I think this is a team that ends up looking a lot like the 2014 Royals. Francisco Lindor will solidify their IF defense over the full season, and is a help with the bat. I think this club is still a year away from really breaking through - the offense still has a lot of question marks - but I like them to nab a wildcard spot.

Key Player(s): Michael Brantley. When Brantley returns - and how he hits when he does - will be critical to the Indians' ability to be good enough on offense.

Jason Kipnis. Kipnis has been an enigmatic offensive performer for the past several years. If he finally has a good offensive campaign from start to finish, Cleveland could make real noise.

Something of interest to me: For all the acclaim the Twins' farm system gets, I look at the Indians young players, and would much rather have them. Brad Zimmer is going to be a very good all-around CF. Clint Frazier has huge power potential and should arrive soon (2017). Lindor is a young stud.

3) Tigers - Old and dependent on a few stars. If Verlander and Sanchez are healthy and effective, they will be playoff contenders. I'm sure JD Martinez will continue to hit roid-aided bombs. I'm also pretty sure Victor Martinez's days as a huge power threat are gone.

Key player: Justin Verlander. Detroit people would have you believe he figured out how to succeed without his big fastball in September of last year. If that's true, and he returns to dominant form, Detroit will likely contend again.

Something of interest to me: Will Jose Iglesias stay healthy and not try to kill teammates in the dugout? His defense makes the whole group much better.

4) Twins - They won't lead the division or be in playoff contention for as long this year, but Minnesota will avoid the cellar.

Key Player: Miguel Sano. Huge power, huge K rate. Can he continue to drive the ball and be a plus offensive player? Probably needs to cut that 35 percent K percentage to do so.

Something of interest to me: Will teams challenge Sano inside with hard stuff? Working away, away, just lets his power play up. Also - will Mike Berardino continue to be the biggest beat writer homer in MLB?

5) White Sox - still managed by a shitty manager who can't control his clubhouse (The blame for the LaRoche thing really should fall on him, not the GM). Still have a shitty overall defense and a lot of douchebags on the team. They will once again look better on paper than they actually perform.

Key player: Carlos Rodon. The White Sox need Rodon to take a big step forward to make an actual move this season. He's got the talent...

And, as always, here are the prospects.

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

[Why Not?]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

Wait - we're 4 games back of the wild card spot and folks want to throw in the towel?

I'm not throwing in shit. I'm just not expecting a playoff berth. If it happens I'll be all the much happier.

[KevB]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Probability theory says past events are irrelevant.

I'm familiar with Statistics. That said, the balance of our season suggests a 34-12 stretch is unlikely. This isn't a Stats classroom.

[KevB]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Biggest issue is that the Red Sox and Jays are both on 92 win paces, so that squeezes you down to one spot that's in the 88-90 win range.

Logic would suggest one of those teams will separate and take the division. My money is on Boston. That really leaves you chasing just the one wildcard spot unless the second team plays at a much lower pace the rest of the way.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You're right of course, but how sweet would it be if we combined with someone like the M's to knock the Jays and Orioles out of the playoffs?

[siberian khatru]

Originally Posted by KevB

You're right of course, but how sweet would it be if we combined with someone like the M's to knock the Jays and Orioles out of the playoffs?

Peak butthurt

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

This is why the national guys who suggested KC would look at Valencia in trade were so hilariously off base.

KC is aware of what a piece of crap teammate he is.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sounds like Billy Butler is 90% of the culprit to me. Not saying Valencia should have popped him, but total dbag move on Butler's part.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by KevB

I'm familiar with Statistics. That said, the balance of our season suggests a 34-12 stretch is unlikely. This isn't a Stats classroom.

The point is, the Royals winning 8 in a row has no effect on their ability to win 8 more in a row. That is the problem with the Mellinger article. It's like when you look at a roulette wheel and see it has rolled black 7 times in a row. Many people think that you should then bet on green or red, but the gamblers fallacy illustrates that it doesn't matter. Future events will occur at the same rate they always have regardless of past events.

But, as you know, either way going 34-12 is EXTREMELY unlikely for any team, including a 64 and 60 one.

[ARROW2]

Originally Posted by BWillie

The point is, the Royals winning 8 in a row has no effect on their ability to win 8 more in a row. That is the problem with the Mellinger article. It's like when you look at a roulette wheel and see it has rolled black 7 times in a row. Many people think that you should then bet on green or red, but the gamblers fallacy illustrates that it doesn't matter. Future events will occur at the same rate they always have regardless of past events.

But, as you know, either way going 34-12 is EXTREMELY unlikely for any team, including a 64 and 60 one.

Does anybody realize that there are only 38 games left and that getting to 90 wins requires a 26-12 record? I realize you are counting the past 8 but they are already in the books and shouldn't be counted when discussing what needs to be done THE REST OF THE WAY.

[ARROW2]

Royals will make the playoffs. Who wants to bet against the Royals?

[Nightfyre]

26-12 is a .684 winning percentage. That is high, but certainly within the realm of possibility. I wouldn't even count the division out at this point given that we play Cleveland six times still.

[cosmo20002]

Mark your calendars -

Our Wild Card game is scheduled for Tues, October 4. I assume we'll be playing in Toronto or Boston. Hopefully, it works out that we can start Duffy.

ALDS starts Thursday, Oct 6.
ALCS starts Friday, Oct. 14.

World Series Game 1 in KC vs the Cubs will be Tuesday, October 25

[Prison Bitch]

I'd like to kick the tires on Yasmany Tomas. He's clearly not able to play in the NL, he's a DH only. He has nice power with 26 bombs, is only 25 years old, and has 4/50 left on his deal. He'd be nice to fill Kendrys' spot. Cuthbert straight up?

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

I'd like to kick the tires on Yasmany Tomas. He's clearly not able to play in the NL, he's a DH only. He has nice power with 26 bombs, is only 25 years old, and has 4/50 left on his deal. He'd be nice to fill Kendrys' spot. Cuthbert straight up?

First: my no 1 rule as a GM would always be to trade with Dave Stewart if I can. He's a clown and in way over his head.

Knowing the DBacks, you might be able to get Tomas for practically worthless parts.

I wouldn't move Cuthbert for him, though. He's a good offensive performer and much cheaper.

If there's a team you could convince to take Joakim Soria, it's probably the DBacks, though. So who knows?

Originally Posted by KevB

You're right of course, but how sweet would it be if we combined with someone like the M's to knock the Jays and Orioles out of the playoffs?

I'd be fine with knocking out the Orioles and then beating Toronto in the WC game.

Duffy would start the last game of the year the way the schedule breaks right now. Would be awesome if they go into that day not needing a win, having secured a WC spot, and able to save Danny for the next game.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by Why Not?

I know Royals Review garners mixed feelings around here but there's a pretty good article over there(I don't know how to link articles or any of that shit)on who we need to root for over the next 6 weeks. It breaks down all the matchups for the teams we are chasing or close to like the Yankees. We're pretty much going to need to stay as hot as we've been plus have the Twins and the Rays play at least .500 ball to end the year. Gulp.

http://www.royalsreview.com/2016/8/2...-playoff-chase

The Royals have won eight in a row and achieved full-on meme status with a fifteen of twenty stretch to start August, carried by their various Rally Mantises. It’s starting to feel like the playoffs might be a real possibility. Most projection sites still have the odds as long, and you can get more info about that from Shaun here.

Dreaming about Royals playoff chances right now involves passing multiple teams whether they aim for the wild card or the division. The Royals won't play all of those teams. Even when the Royals are still scheduled to play a team ahead of them there are not always enough remaining games for the Royals to do everything themselves. So the Royals will have to count on some other teams to do some of the work for them. Which teams are those?

National League

This one is pretty obvious. Royals fans can generally root for whoever they want as most games featuring an NL team will have no impact on them. If an NL team plays a team ahead of the Royals, root for the NL team because an NL team win does not otherwise affect the Royals playoff chances. The only NL team the Royals face for the rest of the season is Miami/Florida starting tonight; it would be nice if they'd go ahead and roll over and give the Royals a sweep.

American League

Teams behind the Royals

There are a bunch of teams who have won fewer games than the Royals. Much like the NL you can root for whomever you want as long as they’re not playing the Royals or a team ahead of the Royals. Teams in this category include the Twins, White Sox, Angels, Athletics, and Rays. If you want a more detailed look at these, MrAndersonmm has an excellent FanPost on the topic.

Teams ahead of/tied with/near to Royals

Texas, Seattle, Houston, Toronto, Boston, Baltimore, New York, Cleveland, and Detroit are all ahead of, tied with, or very near to the Royals. This is the group where things get a bit more complicated.

If any of these teams are playing any of the teams behind the Royals, root against these teams. But what about if these teams are playing each other? The quick answer is to root for lots of extra innings and blown leads. The longer answer requires things be broken down a bit. Keep in mind that all of this assumes the Royals will also take care of their own business, winning most or all of their remaining games.

Texas

This one is actually pretty easy: Root for Texas against any of the others. Texas has a pretty strong 7 game lead in the West and the best record in the American League. Therefore, it benefits the Royals far more for the Rangers to hang on to that division and punish the other wild card hopefuls. If Texas lets Seattle or Houston pass them, then both teams would likely end up with 90+ wins, bad news for the Royals. The Rangers have series remaining against Cleveland, Seattle, and Houston during which they can really help out the Royals by helping themselves.

Seattle

Alternately, Royals and Royals fans should be rooting against the Mariners. The Mariners aren’t close enough to winning the division to remove them from the wild card race that way. They’re also far enough ahead of the Royals, with no remaining head-to-head games between them, that the Royals will need someone to take the Mariners out for them.

Houston

The Astros are currently a half game ahead of the Royals. It's still probably safe enough to root for them against the other teams in competition - so long as they lose to the other teams and the Royals win, they won't be an issue.

Toronto, Baltimore, Boston

These three teams get listed together because they’re all bunched together at the top of the AL East and the AL Wild Card. It seems very likely that one of them will win the division and at least one will get a wild card spot. There are two methods that seem entirely reasonable for choosing the teams to root for/against out of this trio.

Because the Royals still have three games remaining against Boston and none remaining against the other two, you might choose to root against them. If the Royals sweep the Red Sox in their series - an unlikely result, but then this is all an exercise in the unlikely, anyway - they would cut the distance between them and the Red Sox in half all by themselves. A little help from other teams and the Royals could knock Boston out, entirely.

If you don't think the Royals can beat the Red Sox - or you are reading this a week after it was posted and you already know the Royals didn't beat the Red Sox - then it makea more sense to root against Baltimore. Baltimore is already behind Boston and they have the toughest remaining schedule of the three by winning percentage.

BlitzAce71
New York

The Yankees are currently tied with the Royals in the wild card standings, but the Royals control their own destiny in this matchup because the two teams still go up against each other three more times. It may go against every fiber of your being, but if you want the Royals to make the playoffs their best chance lies in the Yankees beating all the other teams in the running as well as getting swept in KC.

Detroit

The Tigers are currently ahead of the Royals in both the wild card and the division by two games. So they might seem like an obvious choice to root against when they play other contenders. However, the Royals have six more games against them so the boys in blue don’t need anyone’s help to pass them. That means we are going to spend a lot of time rooting for the Tigers, unfortunately.

Cleveland

This initially seemed like the hardest choice to make. The Cleveland baseball team owns the second best record in the AL, and a commanding eight game lead over the Royals in the division. Rooting for Cleveland would mean giving up any hope for the safest playoff path, single game randomness being what it is. But rooting against Cleveland when they play other contenders would mean sacrificing hope for a wild card spot in order to make a run at the increasingly difficult to achieve division title.

After examining the Indians schedule, however, there is some good news and some bad news. The good news is that the Indians don’t play any of the teams on the "Root Against" list for the reason of the season, so we can just go ahead and keep rooting against them without fear. The bad news is that not playing against any of the teams on that list means their competition is not as stiff as it could be, so the road to the Royals winning the division requires even more luck than it might have otherwise.

Cleveland will play four against the Astros, four against the Rangers, and have multiple series remaining against both the Royals and Tigers; it is not impossible for the Royals to catch them if Cleveland loses most of those games. Unfortunately, Cleveland hasn’t lost more than three in a row at any point this season. They also continue to exhibit the same luck the Royals had last year with late inning heroics and amazing come-back wins.

Even if the Royals can't pull it off, it sure is a lot more fun and a lot harder to complain about draft positioning and lack of deadline deals when the team wins enough to keep things interesting. Scoreboard watching will keep us all entertained during the interminable delays while the Royals or their opponents employ shifts or deploy their relievers.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

First: my no 1 rule as a GM would always be to trade with Dave Stewart if I can. He's a clown and in way over his head.

Knowing the DBacks, you might be able to get Tomas for practically worthless parts.

You'd enjoy Cameron's takedown of that front office today:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-t...-diamondbacks/

I wouldn't move Cuthbert for him, though. He's a good offensive performer and much cheaper. If there's a team you could convince to take Joakim Soria, it's probably the DBacks, though. So who knows?

After Sal, he's prob our top trade chip, maybe Mondesi.

[suzzer99]

If the freaking Indians opponents could hold a lead going into the 8th inning in the last 5 games we'd be 5.5 games back right now.