Royals *** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 *** - Page 3

duncan_idaho · 07-14-2015, 11:05 PM

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

Hootie · 07-15-2015, 12:39 PM

and by a better Yadier, I meant when Yadier was 25. He's also better than Yadier, now ... but Yadier had a 3 year stretch from 2011-2013 Sal hasn't quite reached

BWillie · 07-15-2015, 12:40 PM

Does anybody know the average bullpen ERA vs the average starter ERA, for the entire MLB? It seems to be, relievers are becoming more and more effective, or maybe they just always have been but weren't utilized as much as they are now.

When I watched Aroldis Chapman last night, I was just blown away. I don't know how anybody can hit that guy, if they do, it would just be pure luck. He would be unstoppable in a big park like Kaufman. I get that he's a strikeout pitcher, but I'm sure with his velo, if someone remotely taps one it can get out of Cincy much easier than Kaufman. I hope Nedgar calls Dayton and tells him to trade the entire Omaha Storm Chasers for him. Okay I'm kidding, but I'm a fan of the Chapman.

BWillie · 07-15-2015, 12:50 PM

MLB average bullpen ERA is 3.51. MLB average in ERA is 3.82. I haven't been able to find out what the average MLB starter ERA is, but assuming starters usually pitch 2/3 of the game, we know it's much much higher than not only the bullpen ERA, but the MLB average ERA as well. My assumption would be it's around 4.0.

I know whenever your bring up possibly utilizing starters less, or pitching by committee you are mocked in the baseball world as it goes against conventional wisdom. People just go, you can't do that. I think, once rosters expand, you could do it, and it would be a more efficient way to pitch.

Especially for a small market club, relievers should be cheaper per innings pitched, and would be a cost effective strategy. The reliever ERA even takes into account the shitty long man that teams have when they just put in down by 10 who really makes no difference anyway. This would even further skew the advantage to relief pitching.

I would at least like to see a struggling club, who has no playoff potential, roll the dice and give pitching by committee a shot. Each time a starting pitcher goes through the lineup, they become less effective. It's been proven time and time again through numbers and analysis. The main problem I see is allowing your starter to go thru the order a third time. I want to see someone play the odds, not just old baseball thinking. If none of your pitchers ever went more than 3 innings at a time, you would have enough pitchers to pitch by committee without designated starters. They wouldn't have to wait 5 days to pitch again, and would be fine on short rest as they haven't thrown a wrench in their arms pitching 120 pitch counts.

**Bob Dole** · 07-15-2015, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

Royals playoff percentage has went up the most since Opening Day.

http://mweb.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on...s-biggest-drop

Because it was stupid low to begin with.

ChiefsCountry · 07-15-2015, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

at this point in his career, comparatively speaking, Sal is like a better Yadier Molina. Think about that.

Sal has so much value that can't be quantified in numbers

Yadi was a better defender at the same age but Sal is way more advanced at the plate than Yadi was.

**RollChiefsRoll** · 07-15-2015, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

Royals playoff percentage has went up the most since Opening Day.

http://mweb.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on...s-biggest-drop

But what about PECOTA?

KevB · 07-15-2015, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie

Does anybody know the average bullpen ERA vs the average starter ERA, for the entire MLB? It seems to be, relievers are becoming more and more effective, or maybe they just always have been but weren't utilized as much as they are now.

When I watched Aroldis Chapman last night, I was just blown away. I don't know how anybody can hit that guy, if they do, it would just be pure luck. He would be unstoppable in a big park like Kaufman. I get that he's a strikeout pitcher, but I'm sure with his velo, if someone remotely taps one it can get out of Cincy much easier than Kaufman. I hope Nedgar calls Dayton and tells him to trade the entire Omaha Storm Chasers for him. Okay I'm kidding, but I'm a fan of the Chapman.

Funny earlier this year when we discussed Chapman getting traded to the Royals with Holland leaving --- some were dumbstruck that we'd plug him in as closer and not Wade. I assume those same people now understand. Wade is great, but Chapman is right there has been elite for longer. Dude is a freak show on the mound.

Mama Hip Rockets · 07-15-2015, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie

When I watched Aroldis Chapman last night, I was just blown away. I don't know how anybody can hit that guy, if they do, it would just be pure luck. He would be unstoppable in a big park like Kaufman. I get that he's a strikeout pitcher, but I'm sure with his velo, if someone remotely taps one it can get out of Cincy much easier than Kaufman. I hope Nedgar calls Dayton and tells him to trade the entire Omaha Storm Chasers for him. Okay I'm kidding, but I'm a fan of the Chapman.

Yeah, pretty much the only reason he ever allows any runs is cause he walks so many people. He gives up almost as many walks as he does hits. In his career, he has allowed 142 walks and 150 hits in 290 innings. He has had two seasons where he gave up more walks than hits. All in all, he's allowed 4.7 hits per 9 innings in his career, which would be by far the best ever if he maintains that pace throughout his career. Nolan Ryan is the all-time leader in H/9 at 6.55.

KChiefs1 · 07-15-2015, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thurman merman

Yeah, pretty much the only reason he ever allows any runs is cause he walks so many people. He gives up almost as many walks as he does hits. In his career, he has allowed 142 walks and 150 hits in 290 innings. He has had two seasons where he gave up more walks than hits. All in all, he's allowed 4.7 hits per 9 innings in his career, which would be by far the best ever if he maintains that pace throughout his career. Nolan Ryan is the all-time leader in H/9 at 6.55.

That's insane numbers.

**Anyong Bluth** · 07-15-2015, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Three7s

So much for Hosmer's full-season of success. The guy is streaky and that's how it is.

He can suck the entire 2nd half so long as he has an epic hot streak come the playoffs.

KChiefs1 · 07-15-2015, 01:23 PM

The Great Balbino:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/balbi...vant-prospect/

Quote:

Balbino Fuenmayor: From Indy Baller to Relevant Prospect
by Chris Mitchell - July 15, 2015

I tend to follow the minor leagues pretty closely. As a result, I would say I’m at least generally familiar with nearly all prospects who have a chance of making a big league impact in the foreseeable future. However, when Balbino Fuenmayor came to the plate as Team World’s cleanup hitter in Sunday’s Futures Game, I hadn’t a clue who he was. I was even more confused when I saw his stats show up on my screen: .360/.388/.612 between Double-A and Triple-A this year. Sure, the World team sometimes needs to scrape the bottom of the barrel for its first basemen, but how could I not know about this guy? Who could forget a name like that?

After pulling up Fuenmayor’s FanGraphs page, I somewhat forgave myself for letting him fly under my radar. Simply put, he wasn’t someone worth monitoring prior to this season. In fact, he didn’t even play affiliated baseball last year.

Fuenmayor originally signed with the Blue Jays as 16-year-old out of Venezuela way back in 2006, and spent seven forgettable years in the Blue Jays organization. Over nearly 2,000 plate appearances, none of them above Low-A Ball, he hit a pedestrian .251/.296/.390. With a strikeout rate of 28%, Fuenmayor simply struck out too frequently to turn any heads, especially for a corner infielder with few walks and middling power.

The Jays cut Fuenmayor in May of 2013, while he was hitting .208/.287/.396 as a 23-year-old in the Low-A Midwest League. Understandably, no Major League organization showed much interest in Fuenmayor, forcing him take his talents to the Indy Ball circuit. He spent the remainder of the 2013 season with the Frontier Grays and the Laredo Lemurs.

Fuenmayor joined Les Capitales de Quebec of the Canadian-American Association in 2014; and for one reason or another, things really seemed to click for him in Quebec. He split time between first base and third base for the Capitals, and hit a gaudy .347/.383/.610. On the strength of that performance, he won the Can-Am MVP award and Baseball America named him their Indy League Player of the Year.

Fuenmayor’s eye-popping season in the Can-Am League was impressive, but by no means was it enough to redeem his prospect status. Not only was it just one season, but his performance came against competition that pales in comparison to the highest levels of the minors. Several of the best Can-Am hitters have struggled after latching on with Major League organizations. Christopher Edmondson, Bridger Hunt, Cam Kneeland and Daniel Mateo are just a few examples from the last couple of years.

Nonetheless, the Royals took a flyer on the 25-year-old. And so far, that decision appears to have been a wise one. Fuenmayor opened the year in Double-A, where he hit .354/.386/.591 in the season’s first three months. The Royals moved him up to Triple-A shortly before the All-Star break, and he didn’t miss a beat: .423/.407/.846 in six games. As good as he was in Indy Ball last year, he’s been just as good in the high levels of affiliated ball.

The biggest driver of Fuenmayor’s improvement has been his newfound penchant for putting the ball in play. The Venezuelan slugger cut his strikeout rate in half — from 30% to 15% — compared to his previous stint in pro ball. However, Fuenmayor’s power has been his biggest strength. His .237 ISO in Double-A was the highest of any qualified hitter in the Texas League. According to lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel, Fuenmayor showed 60 raw power in the Futures Game, so those numbers aren’t all fluke. Here’s some video of his batting practice from said Futures Game, courtesy of Baseball America.

Fuenmayor’s been great, but his loud numbers aren’t quite enough to get KATOH on board. Using a weighted average of his Double-A and Triple-A numbers, my system pegs him for an uninspiring 1.9 WAR through age-28. This forecast has everything to do with the fact that he’s been old for his level. KATOH dings Fuenmayor pretty hard for being a 25-year-old in Double-A.

In fairness, though, KATOH wasn’t really designed for players like Fuenmayor. KATOH forecasts prospects, and as a 25-year-old in Double-A, Fuenmayor barely fits the mold of a prospect. Looking at some comps might be a bit more enlightening. Using league-adjusted, regressed stats, along with age, I calculated the Mahalanobis Distance between Fuenmayor’s performance and every Double-A season since 1990 in which a batter recorded at least 400 plate appearances.

Below, you’ll find a list of historical players whose performances were nearest and dearest to Fuenmayor’s, ranked from most to least similar.

RankMah DistNamePA thru 28WAR thru 28
11.7Jason LaRue1,0103.3
24.1John Castellano00.0
34.4Juan De La Rosa00.0
44.5Mike Jacobs2,0890.0
54.7Andy Bevins00.0
64.9Don Sparks00.0
74.9Juan Guerrero1390.0
84.9John Gall510.0
95.1Drew Locke00.0
105.1Luis Montanez00.0
115.2Rob Cosby00.0
125.3Dee Haynes00.0
135.4Hunter Morris*00.0
145.5Chan Perry140.0
155.7Angel Salome30.0
165.8Raul Gonzalez1280.0
175.9Dustan Mohr1,1853.9
185.9Terrel Hansen00.0
196.0Adam Moore2600.0
206.0Alfredo Silverio*00.0
*Batters who have yet to play their age-28 season.

And here’s a list containing only players who were primarily first basemen in Double-A.

RankMah DistNamePA thru 28WAR thru 28
14.5Mike Jacobs2,0890.0
24.9Don Sparks0.00.0
35.4Hunter Morris*0.00.0
45.5Chan Perry140.0
56.0Jeff Ball0.00.0
66.4Shea Hillenbrand2,3272.8
76.5Kevin Millar7152.6
86.5Mark Howie0.00.0
96.8Jim Bowie0.00.0
107.0Clint Robinson40.0
*Batters who have yet to play their age-28 season.

If you look at the “Mah Dist” column in the first table, you’ll notice that Fuenmayor’s top comp — Jason LaRue — has a significantly lower distance than all of the others. There typically aren’t a ton of 25-year-olds in Double-A, and almost none of them hit as well as Fuenmayor did, in the same way that he did it — except for LaRue. LaRue ended up having a nice little career, but his value didn’t come from his bat. He was a below-average hitter who made his bones by playing solid defense behind the plate. Unlike LaRue, Fuenmayor doesn’t have any defensive skills to fall back on.

Mike Jacobs also turns up, and he represents a better comp for Fuenmayor from a defensive standpoint. Jacobs walked and struck out a bit more than Fuenmayor has, but both hitters come from a similar mold: Power-hitting first basemen in their mid-twinties, who were too good for Double-A. Jacobs didn’t have an overly successful career, but he certainly had his moments as a major leaguer. In 2005, the year he posted his Fuenmayor-esque season in Double-A, he closed out the year by hitting .310/.375/.710 in 30 games with the Mets. He also had two full seasons where he hit better than the league average, according to wRC+. An outcome like Jacobs’ is probably within the realm of possibility for Fuenmayor.

In the matter of months, Fuenmayor’s gone from nondescript Indy Baller to promising slugger on the cusp of the majors. He may not have much of a long-term track record, but he’s been one of the very best hitters in the minors over the last three months. And it’s pretty obvious that he’s a much different hitter today than he was in his days with Toronto.

Fuenmayor’s a good story. It’s always a good story when a player goes from being basically out of baseball to playing in the majors. And if Fuenmayor continues to hit like his 2015 self, rather than like his pre-2014 self, the best part of his story could still lie ahead.

Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

BigCatDaddy · 07-15-2015, 01:29 PM

KChiefs1 · 07-15-2015, 01:38 PM

Dave Cameron chat today:

Quote:

12:13Comment From Jeff
Dave, do you think a Royals-Reds blockbuster trade (Cueto, Bruce and all of his contract for Mondesi and more) is plausible? Kansas City is in a position to absolutely go for it, and need starting pitcher and corner outfield help even with Gordon, let alone with him out until September?

12:13 Dave Cameron: Cueto and Bruce make a lot of sense for KC, but “Mondesi and more” is not anywhere near what it would take.

12:14 Dave Cameron: Unless by more, you meant like their next three best prospects too.

Hootie · 07-15-2015, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

Dave Cameron chat today:

and that's what I thought

people thinking Duffy/Finnegan is anywhere close to what it'll take are just very naive

duncan_idaho · 07-15-2015, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

Dave Cameron chat today:

Dave Cameron is kind of a moron.

07-14-2015, 11:05 PM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1290308	* Official Royals Repository, Part 3 * In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions. Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins One month in: Looking strong All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins. Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro! All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one. Division Preview Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them. Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out. And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture. The Royals will be a division winner IF ... 1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work 2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts 3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland 4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy 5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back. Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015: Spoiler! 1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1 2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time. 3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016. 4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level. 5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable) 6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count. 7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season. 8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup. 9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly. 10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up. Spoiler! 11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags. 12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing. 13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with. 14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced. 15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch. 16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them. 17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching. 18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list. 19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far. 20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
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07-15-2015, 12:39 PM	#31
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	and by a better Yadier, I meant when Yadier was 25. He's also better than Yadier, now ... but Yadier had a 3 year stretch from 2011-2013 Sal hasn't quite reached
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07-15-2015, 12:40 PM	#32
BWillie El Gato Gordo Loco Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Earth Casino cash: $1961241	Does anybody know the average bullpen ERA vs the average starter ERA, for the entire MLB? It seems to be, relievers are becoming more and more effective, or maybe they just always have been but weren't utilized as much as they are now. When I watched Aroldis Chapman last night, I was just blown away. I don't know how anybody can hit that guy, if they do, it would just be pure luck. He would be unstoppable in a big park like Kaufman. I get that he's a strikeout pitcher, but I'm sure with his velo, if someone remotely taps one it can get out of Cincy much easier than Kaufman. I hope Nedgar calls Dayton and tells him to trade the entire Omaha Storm Chasers for him. Okay I'm kidding, but I'm a fan of the Chapman. __________________ Who wants free money? Use the link below to sign up at Bovada, BetOnline, Black Chip Poker and Ignition. Contact me for private deals, spot bonuses, possible rakeback or any questions! Bovada, Ignition, BetOnline, Black Chip Poker: baldeaglepoker.com Bovada Poker is back! Get up to $500 poker deposit bonus.
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07-15-2015, 12:50 PM	#33
BWillie El Gato Gordo Loco Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Earth Casino cash: $1961241	MLB average bullpen ERA is 3.51. MLB average in ERA is 3.82. I haven't been able to find out what the average MLB starter ERA is, but assuming starters usually pitch 2/3 of the game, we know it's much much higher than not only the bullpen ERA, but the MLB average ERA as well. My assumption would be it's around 4.0. I know whenever your bring up possibly utilizing starters less, or pitching by committee you are mocked in the baseball world as it goes against conventional wisdom. People just go, you can't do that. I think, once rosters expand, you could do it, and it would be a more efficient way to pitch. Especially for a small market club, relievers should be cheaper per innings pitched, and would be a cost effective strategy. The reliever ERA even takes into account the shitty long man that teams have when they just put in down by 10 who really makes no difference anyway. This would even further skew the advantage to relief pitching. I would at least like to see a struggling club, who has no playoff potential, roll the dice and give pitching by committee a shot. Each time a starting pitcher goes through the lineup, they become less effective. It's been proven time and time again through numbers and analysis. The main problem I see is allowing your starter to go thru the order a third time. I want to see someone play the odds, not just old baseball thinking. If none of your pitchers ever went more than 3 innings at a time, you would have enough pitchers to pitch by committee without designated starters. They wouldn't have to wait 5 days to pitch again, and would be fine on short rest as they haven't thrown a wrench in their arms pitching 120 pitch counts. __________________ Who wants free money? Use the link below to sign up at Bovada, BetOnline, Black Chip Poker and Ignition. Contact me for private deals, spot bonuses, possible rakeback or any questions! Bovada, Ignition, BetOnline, Black Chip Poker: baldeaglepoker.com Bovada Poker is back! Get up to $500 poker deposit bonus. Last edited by BWillie; 07-15-2015 at 12:56 PM..
Posts: 46,499

07-15-2015, 01:29 PM	#42
BigCatDaddy The Beast Inside Your Head Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Parts Unknown Casino cash: $1559122	In
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